The States That Will Matter The Most In 2012 Presidential Election

When one looks ahead to the 2012 Presidential Election, it is clear what the major battlegrounds will be.

As stated earlier, the Midwest is the major area of the country that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2013!

President Obama won all of the Midwest except for Missouri, but he is unlikely to win Indiana and Iowa in 2012, and Ohio and Missouri will be difficult, but he will win Illinois and seems likely to win the upper Midwest of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, particularly after the reaction against Scott Walker in Wisconsin spurred public opinion in favor of the rights of labor to collective bargaining.

North Carolina will be hard to hold on to in the South, but Virginia, with its northern areas bordering on the nation’s capital, and Florida, with South Florida a strong Democratic stronghold and growing anger against Rick Scott’s agenda in the Sunshine State, is also likely to stay Democratic.

In the Far West, it seems likely that Colorado and Nevada will stay Democratic, along with New Mexico, and that Arizona, a center of turmoil similar to Wisconsin and Florida, could go to the Democrats in a close finish.

Pennsylvania also seems likely to stay with the Democrats, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific Coast states.

In summary, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa may be lost, but Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will likely stay with the Democrats, and Arizona and Missouri may switch, with Pennsylvania and Ohio seen likely to be a good possibility as well in a close race, with Ohio less likely to stay Democratic.

With the fact that Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008, even the loss of a few states, but with a chance to gain other states, and with the reality that unemployment is now expected to dip to close to 7 percent by the fall of 2012, it seems clear that any Republican will have a rough time being elected President!

One comment on “The States That Will Matter The Most In 2012 Presidential Election

  1. oldgulph March 10, 2011 12:57 pm

    By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

    Now, policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

    Since World War II, a shift of a handful of votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 13 presidential elections. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 6 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections.. 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore’s lead of 537,179 popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3,000,000 votes.

    The bill would take effect when enacted by states that have a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). Then, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 7-5%,, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74% , MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA . The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, and WA. These 7 states possess 74 electoral votes — 27% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.