Electoral College

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Ronald 12 Comments

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

Ronald 2 Comments

The Mormon Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) is an important factor in the American West.

Usually, Mormons as a group are conservative Republicans, but the odds are growing that states that would usually vote Republican might not vote for Donald Trump, due to his religious bigotry displayed toward Muslims, as Mormons suffered persecution in the 19th century on their trek to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Mitt Romney, himself a Mormon, is vehemently against Trump.

60 percent in Utah, 24 percent in Idaho, and 9 percent in Wyoming are Mormons,with 4-5 percent in Nevada, Arizona, and Montana. Only about 2 percent in America are Mormon, similar to Jews in population and percentage.

The most Mormon states are Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, with a total of 13 electoral votes. Nevada, Arizona, and Montana follow, with a total of 20 electoral votes. All of these six states, except Nevada, have been reliably Republican.

So we are talking about a possible loss of 27 electoral votes, not counting Nevada’s six electoral votes.

Donald Trump cannot afford to lose these states, but he could, indeed, some or all of them going to Democrat Hillary Clinton over the religious issue!

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

The “Short List” Of Vice Presidential Choices For Hillary Clinton

Ronald 13 Comments

According to the Associated Press, the “short list” of Vice Presidential choices for Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton includes:

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine

Housing and Urban Development Secretary and former San Antonio, Texas Mayor Julian Castro

All three are excellent choices, but this blogger would recommend Castro as the best choice.

It is important to keep Democrats in the US Senate, as even one seat might matter for a majority.

Castro is only 42, which is wonderful, since he represents a new generation of leadership in the future, and is a Latino of Mexican heritage, the future of America, with 65 percent of all Hispanics in America being of Mexican heritage.

The likelihood of a Latino President in eight years, possibly Castro at age 50, is a great possibility.

Castro may not have direct foreign policy experience, but then neither does Warren, and while Kaine is on the Foreign Relations Committee and speaks Spanish, and is 58, a good age for a Vice President with a President eleven years older, and is an excellent choice, Castro is the best overall fit at this time. He gives the Democrats a chance to make Texas competitive, and move that state toward becoming “Blue” by 2024, when Castro could be the successor to run for President.

Once Texas turns “Blue”, the Electoral College is insured for the Democrats for the long term future!

The Changing Supreme Court In 2017: A Move To The Left That Will Last To The 2040s Or Beyond!

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With the reality that Democrat Hillary Clinton has a clear lead for the Electoral College, the likelihood of a liberal majority Supreme Court seems more certain in 2017 and beyond.

News that Justice Clarence Thomas might retire at age 68 in the next year is encouraging in that regard, but even if he does not, as his wife has just contended, the likelihood is of FOUR appointments to the Court outside of Thomas, with two of them (Antonin Scalia dead and Anthony Kennedy retiring) being a movement to the left, making at the least a 6-3 Court by 2020. If Thomas also leaves, it would be a 7-2 Court, which would have a long range effect to the 2040s or beyond!

The Supreme Court has had a Republican and conservative majority for 44 years, since 1972, so it is about time to right the balance and make for a revival of the Chief Justice Earl Warren Court, which had an effect for 16 years, and continued to influence, if not control the Court, with the extended service of Justice William Brennan and Justice Thurgood Marshall.

Fortunately, Justice Harry Blackmun, Justice John Paul Stevens, and Justice David Souter, all appointed by Republican Presidents, often joined the few liberals left on the Court, and prevented the Court from going even further Right than it did in those 44 years.

But there is a desperate need for a tilt to the left on so many issues, so that is the most important reason for the election of Hillary Clinton to the White House in November!

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Ronald 32 Comments

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

Potential Third Party Or Independent Attempt To Deny Clinton or Trump 270 Electoral Votes!

Ronald 11 Comments

If it was left up to Bill Kristol of The Weekly Standard and other conservatives, they would love to form a third party or independent conservative movement to deny Democrat Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump the ability to win 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win the White House.

Such a strategy, a real long shot, would have Mitt Romney or Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse or Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton or Florida Senator Marco Rubio or someone else gain financial backing to work to win a few key “swing” states in a three way race, and throw the election to the House of Representatives.

This has not happened since 1824, when John Quincy Adams, the second place finisher, was declared the winner of the Presidency over Andrew Jackson, what became known as a “corrupt bargain”, and fueled the victory of Jackson over Adams in the Presidential Election of 1828.

The most disturbing part is that the Republicans, who control the majority of House delegations in the present Congress, could put that third party or independent nominee in the Oval Office, even if he ended up with the third most electoral and or popular votes, an unprecedented situation, which would be seen as a true “stealing” of the Presidency!

Could We Be Facing Another 1824 Presidential Election, And Use Of The “Ugly” 12th Amendment Once Again, Where The House Of Representatives Selects The Next President?

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There is growing concern that if we have a third party candidacy of Donald Trump, that we could end up with a scenario of the House of Representatives choosing the next President of the United States!

In 1824, in the first participation by all white males in the election, Andrew Jackson was first in popular votes and electoral votes, but lost the election to second place finisher, John Quincy Adams, because Jackson did not have a majority of the electoral votes, and the House chose Adams over Jackson, pure politics!

With a theoretical race of Democrat Hillary Clinton,  Republican Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump, Clinton could end up having the most popular and electoral votes, but fail to reach 270, the number required to win the White House.

The outgoing House of Representatives, with a clear cut Republican majority, would have each member have his or her own vote, and assuredly in that scenario, Ted Cruz would be elected President, even, in theory, if he ended up third in both popular and electoral vote, as the 12th Amendment provides for a choice of the top three candidates!

This would be unconscionable, but could happen, another quirk of the Presidential election process, that has not been used for 192 years, but could rear its ugly head once again!

Could Ted Cruz Be William Howard Taft Vs. Donald Trump Being Theodore Roosevelt In 2016 Presidential Race?

Ronald 2 Comments

There is now a good chance that Donald Trump will refuse to back the Republican Presidential nominee, if he is not the nominee, and will run on a third party line in November.

That will further insure that the Democrats, who are already heavily favored in the Electoral College, will win an even bigger one sided victory!

Donald Trump cannot win the Presidency, but he could win a few states and end up second, like Theodore Roosevelt did in 1912, while Ted Cruz, could, as the GOP nominee, end up winning fewer states and electoral votes, and end up third, as William Howard Taft did in 1912!

Trump could surpass George Wallace in 1968 with five states and 46 electoral votes, and Strom Thurmond in 1948 with four states and 39 electoral votes.  He could also surpass Theodore Roosevelt who won six states in 1912, but highly unlikely to gain anywhere near the 88 electoral votes that TR won.

So the 2016 election could repeat the Presidential Election of 1912, with the Democrats benefiting, as they did in 1912!

Of course, this blogger is not trying to compare Cruz to Taft or Trump to TR, as both Cruz and Trump have far from the accomplished public records of both the 26th and 27th Presidents of the United States!

Trump Effect: Likelihood Of Major Democratic Wave In 2016!

Ronald 13 Comments

The effect of Donald Trump’s Presidential candidacy is the likelihood of a major Democratic wave in the upcoming Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2016.

Polls indicate that the Electoral College could be a landslide for the Democrats, with the chance to gain such states as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, major areas of Hispanic and Latino growth, and indications of many registering to vote because of Trump’s anti Hispanic and anti Latino rhetoric, including against the nation of Mexico, which shares a 2,000 mile boundary with the United States.

The Senate has 34 seats facing election, with 24 of those seats being Republican, and at least ten seats of Republicans in danger of being lost, which would create a large margin of Democrats in the upper chamber.

The House of Representatives is a tough nut to crack, due to gerrymandering and the largest Republican majority in the lower chamber since 1928.  At the least, the large GOP majority will dwindle, with an outside chance of a slim Democratic majority, which probably would be lost in the midterm elections of 2018.

But even a two year “window” would allow a Democratic President with both houses of Congress in his favor to accomplish major changes!

And, of course, the transformation of the Supreme Court would occur, which would have a long range effect.

This is what Donald Trump has done to the moribund Republican Party, and it looks more likely by the day!