New Statistical Method Predicts Election Victory For Barack Obama In November

Three political scientists–Seth Hill of Yale, John Sides of George Washington University, and Lynn Vavreck of UCLA–have set up a new election forecasting model, and used it to judge past Presidential elections, as well as the present one.

The factors involved in the predictions are the gross domestic product in the first three quarters of the election year; the President’s public opinion rating in June of the election year; and and whether one of the candidates is the incumbent in the office.

By these standards, Barack Obama, if his popularity rating holds at 48 percent, and even if there is ZERO economic growth, he has a 58.4 percent chance of winning a second term in the White House!

This works if one looks at 12 of the past 16 Presidential elections, and is, therefore, seen as authoritative by many observers.

Using this model, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had a 97 percent rating; George W. Bush had 76 percent, his dad 64 percent (but affected by Ross Perot’s third party run and Pat Buchanan’s challenge in the primaries), and Jimmy Carter at 34 percent, with everything against him in 1980.

This is just another indication that Mitt Romney has a major challenge overcoming Barack Obama this coming fall!

3 comments on “New Statistical Method Predicts Election Victory For Barack Obama In November

  1. Engineer of Knowledge May 15, 2012 12:23 pm

    Hello Professor,
    As I do hope your analysis does prove to be accurate, there are others that are passing on that last week Romney had an eight point lead but today has fallen to a three point lead, showing President Obama was gaining ground. That being said, it is almost like trying to forecast “Climate Change” by predicting the Weather. The first being on an annual or decade monitoring time frame, and the other being on a daily regiment. An example being like those who point to a winter snow storm as if to show proof that there is no Global Warming.

    If I may use Quantum Physic euphuisms, I think that today any election speculating prediction is still more in a plasma flux and will not start forming any recognizable atomic or molecular bonding identities until it has had a chance to cool down by time as it gets closer to the election to allow these more solid states to form.

    Just as the first Clinton Administration’s run for the Presidency’s mantle that was coined by the brilliant James Carville, “It’s The Economy Stupid!” directed towards the incumbent G. H. W. “Daddy” Bush. Of course I am not calling you stupid, but this is the same “Election Laser Targeted Issue” that Mitt Romney and the Republican Political Managers such as Karl Rove, will be employing for this election.

    The President has to hope for a better economy or a “Desperation Public” will vote for “CHANGE” once again…..and of course for the worse effects of us all. I feel the results of this scenario will be that the economic abuses to the Working Middle Classes of the first eight years of this Millennium, will pale in comparison to the exponential abuses that would come to the Working Middle Classes under the Mitt Romney Republican control for another eight years.

    Of course as always Professor, please counter and assure me that this will not happen….so I can then put down the razor blade….the bathtub is already full of hot water. 😉

  2. Ronald May 15, 2012 2:54 pm

    HAHA, you are so funny! LOL

    I think single women under 50, Hispanics and Latinos, a large majority of young people who are open minded on gay rights, labor, and a majority of college educated people are NOT going to accept the social and economic agenda of Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

    Romney’s lack of popularity is a major shortcoming, and nothing he can do will change that, as well.

    So put down the razor blade, please! 🙂 LOL

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