Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election in the Electoral College, no matter how one wishes to interpret it!
Let the following facts explain that reality.
Barack Obama will win the following states for certain:
Maine-4
Vermont-3
Massachusetts–11
Connecticut–7
Rhode Island–4
New York–29
New Jersey–14
Delaware–3
Maryland–10
District of Columbia–3
Illinois–20
Washington–12
Oregon–7
California–55
Hawaii–4
This adds up to 186 electoral votes, 84 shy of the 270 needed.
Obama has a good chance of wining at least some of the battleground states that he won in 2008, including New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Also, some think he could win Georgia with the growing Hispanic vote there. Also, Missouri is a possible win, only lost in 2008 by a few thousand votes.
With only 84 electoral votes needed to reach 270, can any sane individual believe Obama will not win enough electoral votes from 16 potential states with 198 electoral votes?
He is most likely to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado–a total of 56 electoral votes, leaving him 28 electoral votes short of 270.
The betting is good that Obama would win at least one major battleground state, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida at the least–with Pennsylvania and Ohio together, Virginia and North Carolina together, and Florida separately capable by themselves in giving him enough electoral votes to win 270 electoral votes. Altogether, they have 95 electoral votes.
That leaves New Hampshire, Iowa, Indiana as more doubtful, and Georgia and Missouri on the outside looking in, both a possibility but more difficult to accomplish for Obama–all together only having 47 electoral votes.
Of course, if by some miracle, Obama was to win all of the above states–30 plus the District of Columbia, he would have won two more states (Georgia and Missouri) and a total of 384 electoral votes as compared to 365 in 2008!