Presidential Election of 2012

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

Utah, the Mormon state, has had an interesting history in their voting patterns on the Presidential elections.

Coming into the Union in 1896, Utah voted for Democrat William Jennings Bryan that year; for Woodrow Wilson in his second term bid in 1916; for Franklin D. Roosevelt four times in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944; for Harry Truman in 1948; and for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (over Barry Goldwater).

So if Utah goes for Hillary Clinton, which now seems likely, it will be the first time in 52 years.

With Utah politicians, including Senator Mike Lee, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, and former Governor Jon Huntsman condemning Donald Trump, and with Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, being vehemently anti Trump from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential race, it is seen as a blow to Trump having any chance to keep that state loyal to the Republican Party, which is natural in the past half century. Realize that Romney won 3-1 over Barack Obama four years ago!

Danger Of Civil Disorder If Donald Trump Refuses To Accept Defeat, Which All Previous Losers Have Accepted With Grace And Dignity!

Throughout American history, there has been great emotions as battles for the Presidency go on, but at the end, when the election is over, the loser has always conceded with grace and dignity.

This includes the John Adams-Thomas Jefferson race in 1800, the first time an incumbent has lost to a challenger.

It includes the John Quincy Adams-Andrew Jackson Presidential races in 1824 and 1828.

It includes the Abraham Lincoln–Stephen Douglas–John C. Breckinridge–John Bell four way race on the eve of the Civil War in 1860.

It includes the hotly contested 1876 Presidential race between Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tilden, resolved by the political deal known as the Compromise of 1877.

It includes the four way contested race of 1912 between Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Eugene Debs.

It includes the upset election victory of Harry Truman against Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.

It includes the John F. Kennedy-Richard Nixon race in 1960, which Nixon thought might have been corrupt, but chose not to challenge.

It also includes the Presidential election of 2000, when Al Gore challenged the results in court, but then was graceful once the Supreme Court intervened in favor of George W. Bush.

And it includes the grace and dignity of John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012, when they lost to Barack Obama.

But now, we have had indications that Donald Trump will not concede, and will claim a “rigged” election if he loses, and this will only encourage civil disorder, and the potential for bloodshed and violence, and refusal to allow a peaceful transition to the inauguration and administration of Hillary Clinton.

This is not a laughing matter one iota, and a very worrisome matter!

A Grand Slam Home Run For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump In First Presidential Debate!

Last night’s Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was a grand slam home run for Hillary Clinton.

She demonstrated knowledge, expertise, coolness under fire, a sense of humor, and had an aura of being Presidential.

She proved that a woman could best a man, even one as vain, egotistical, and narcissistic as Donald Trump.

Trump was poorly prepared, and clearly, has no knowledge or expertise that he could demonstrate, and this experience of having a non government person running for President, should guarantee that never again do we even imagine a person only in the business world as a potential President.

As with any profession, one needs education, experience, and vision to be a President, and therefore, it should be automatic that only those who have served in public office in some fashion, and have a record of performance, should be considered for President.

Let a businessman decide to prove himself or herself in public office, as Mitt Romney did, for instance, before he or she dares to consider having the qualifications to be President.

Let such a person go through public scrutiny, and the trials and tribulations of political discourse before such person has the thought of running for the leadership of the free world.

Reality Of American Politics: Win Majority Of Hispanic And Latino Vote Or Lose Presidency In The Future!

Statistics now show that any Presidential nominee from now on MUST win the majority of the Hispanic-Latino vote or lose the Presidency, which insures that Democrats will continue to win the Presidency until and when the Republican Party and its candidates stop attacking the issue of immigration, and accept that the white vote is simply not enough to win the White House. In 2016, it is estimated that to win the Presidency, Donald Trump would have to win 47 percent of the Hispanic-Latino vote, which means by 2020, it will be necessary to win the majority forever after.

George W. Bush won the Presidency with 35 and 40 percent of the vote, while John McCain won 31 percent and Mitt Romney won 27 percent and lost the Presidency.

The latest estimate is that Donald Trump is winning 19 percent of the vote, and that is before his vicious, nasty, hard line speech in Phoenix, which certainly lost him many more Hispanic and Latino votes.

The Hispanic and Latino vote, particularly the Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, are growing rapidly, and already in population, all Hispanics and Latinos are about one out of every six people in America.

And when you add in the Asian American vote and the African American vote, it is clear the Republican Party is doomed long term, as 73 percent of the former and 90 percent of the latter group voted Democratic for President in 2012, and that both numbers will probably go up for Hillary Clinton.

So allowing white nationalists and hate mongers like KKK former leader Davide Duke to be connected to Donald Trump only insures disastrous defeat for Donald Trump and any future GOP nominee who continued to promote nativism and racism.

Large Crowds For Speeches Not Indication Of Voting Results, Just An Entertainment Event!

Many Donald Trump supporters love to point out that he has tremendously large crowds which come out for all of his political rallies.

They say that is an indication of the enthusiasm that exists for the Trump Presidential candidacy.

And yet, all of the public opinion polls indicate a massive edge for Hillary Clinton.

So what gives here?

The answer is that large crowds have never been an indicator of voting results, and should be seen as an entertainment event that costs nothing, and therefore will draw large crowds.

Remember Donald Trump is primarily an entertainer, a reality TV star, a man of charisma, known for more than 30 years as a public figure.

And in other elections, the candidate who lost had very large crowds come to his event–as with George McGovern in 1972 and Mitt Romney in 2012, as two examples.

Where else can you get close to a well known person, who can be funny and as interesting, with his rants and ravings, as Donald Trump is, and pay nothing, and find people who feel the same as you?

So Trump crowds are NO indication of the total disaster about to take over the Trump Presidential bid.

Would Mike Pence Help Donald Trump And Be An Asset? NO!

Mike Pence is said to be Donald Trump’s choice for Vice President.

The Indiana Governor brings his comparative youth at age 57 compared to Trump who is 70.

He brings 12 years of Congressional experience and leadership of the Republican Conference for two years, as well as four years as Governor of a potential “Swing” State, which went to Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

He is a less dynamic person, not the type to seek controversy, and very different in that sense than Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich.

But his hard line social conservative views, which make him popular with the Christian Right, is not going to help Donald Trump win the Presidency.

Pence allowed the passage and signing of a bill that discriminated against gays and lesbians in public accommodations, and then had to ask for a revision of it, when corporations decided to oppose it and moved to stop expansion into the state, a blow to the Indiana economy. In backing off a bit, he alienated the most extreme social conservatives, who are anti abortion, anti gay rights and anti gay marriage, deny climate change, and work against women being equal in a family unit to their husbands.

We are not going back to the 1950s, or to a white supremacist America, where minorities have little input or concern, and where whites claim they are being discriminated against.

This election will be the 1950s white dominated America pre civil rights, pre woman;s rights, pre gay rights, pre environmental movement, pre immigration reform America against 21st century America with all of the advancements in human rights and science that have occurred in the past half century!

Evan Bayh Guarantees Indiana Will Go To The Democratic Presidential Nominee, Hillary Clinton!

Former Indiana Senator Evan Byah, the son of former Senator Birch Bayh, chose not to run for reelection in 2010 after 12 years in the Senate.

But now, six years later, he has decided to come back and run for his seat, and will likely take it away from whomever the Republicans run to succeed retiring Senator Dan Coats, who also gave up his seat and then came back to run again for it in 2010.

We can chalk this up as a certain Democratic gain toward their hoped for majority in the US Senate, which will be crucial in so many ways, including the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices.

Bayh is a moderate centrist Democrat, the kind who can help Hillary Clinton win Indiana, which Barack Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012.

So at least one “Red” state can be considered a gain for the Democrats, insuring even more that Hillary will be elected the 45th President of the United States in November.