Assuming that the Republican party wins control of the House of Representatives this November, and even possibly the Senate, does this mean a united GOP against President Barack Obama in 2011 and 2012?
The clear answer is NO, as younger and more right wing conservative members now, and newly elected, will be desirous of grabbing power and going in a more extreme direction in policy and philosophy!
It is hard to know which new House members will become leaders of a "revolution" in the House, but one can be assured that Eric Cantor, the House Minority Whip from Virginia; Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who is seen as the ideological leader of major conservative oriented reform; and Kevin McCarthy of California will lead the charge for change, and just might challenge John Boehner's leadership.
Cantor, Ryan and McCarthy are publishing a book called "Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders", and it is a clarion call for moving away from the stodgy, unimaginative leadership of Boehner, who is from the Newt Gingrich era, and a lot older than them! And they fail to even name him in their book!
Will libertarian, Tea Party Movement supporters who are elected this fall move to oust Boehner in favor of Cantor? No one can be certain, including Boehner!
And, as stated elsewhere by the author, IF a whole group of libertarian oriented Tea Party types are elected to the Senate--Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, Mike Lee, Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, and Linda McMahon--or most of them--it could be a very uncomfortable time for the old line Republican leadership of Mitch McConnell and other traditional conservative Republicans in the upper chamber!
Imagine this internal set of battles going on as the GOP tries to make a case for its nominee to challenge President Obama, and with Sarah Palin possibly complicating the battle by becoming a burden to the other GOP presidential possibilities by either deciding to run, or trying to influence who IS the nominee!
Will the GOP be able to accomplish anything in the 112th Congress, and make a case for their keeping control and for a Republican President in 2012?
It might actually be better for them to be unable to gain control, but come close, so that the burden of governing is still left in the hands of the Democrats! It would make it easier for them to build a case for a GOP majority and a Republican President in 2012!
Yesterday, a Chicago dentist paid for a commercial that is stirring a lot of discussion, proposing that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton run for President in 2012, replacing President Barack Obama!
This activity was NOT promoted by Hillary Clinton, but is stimulated by this person's loyalty to her, plus the problems that are now faced by President Obama, due to the weak economy and the predictions that the Republican Party will win control of the House of Representatives, and long shot chances to win the US Senate!
Hillary Clinton has made clear that she does NOT plan to run for President again, that she has been through that, and has no desire to do that again! Of course, it is nothing new that politicians declare they are not interested in running for President, and then proceed to do just that!
Of course, there have also been proposals and speculation that Obama might tap Clinton to run for Vice President for the second term, replacing Joe Biden!
It seems clear that there is no possibility of the first scenario, and only a very slight possibility that the second situation might occur!
It has not been possible for a challenger to a President within his own party to defeat the President for the nomination, with well known politicians including Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Ronald Reagan in 1976, Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown in 1980, and Pat Buchanan in 1992, having only accomplished the defeats of Presidents William Howard Taft, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush!
As far as Vice Presidents being replaced, it has been extremely rare, even if the person involved was seen as a weak figure, such as Spiro Agnew in 1972 and Dan Quayle in 1992. When Gerald Ford decided to replace Nelson Rockefeller with Bob Dole in 1976, it actually seems to have undermined his chance at reelection, on top of the challenge from Ronald Reagan earlier in that year!
So despite the wishes of some to see Hillary Clinton on the national ticket in 2012, it is extremely unlikely it will happen, but should Hillary Clinton want to run in 2016, her record so far and moving forward as Secretary of State, should put her in good position to do so six years from now!
Two years ago today, Republican Presidential nominee Senator John McCain surprised many when he selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate for the Presidential Election of 2008!
This has been a very busy two years for Sarah Palin, including being controversial from Day One as to her qualifications to be a "heartbeat away" from the Presidency; her campaign performance; her resignation from the Alaska Governorship; her publication of her best selling memoir; her becoming a Fox News commentator; her campaigning for and endorsing of "Mama Grizzlies" and "Tea Party" candidates; her Twitter and Facebook commentaries; her lucrative speech tours; controversial family issues centered around Levi Johnson; and the rumors that she might seek the White House in 2012!
As she has become a heroine of the Tea Party Movement and the conservative right wing of the Republican Party, she has emerged as the major flashpoint for liberals and progressives and much of the news media!
The speculation is rampant that she will announce for President sometime next year, and that she will be hard to defeat or oppose, on the part of the male Republican politicians who seek the Presidency!
This is so despite the fact that her public opinion ratings are in the low 30s or high 20s, and she tends to have a majority of Americans skeptical of her abilities and intelligence!
The author finds it hard to believe that Sarah Palin will give up the lucrative financial life she has gained, thanks to John McCain, as she would have to forgo it if she announces for President!
And she would have to finally really answer detailed questions and show her deep knowledge of foreign and domestic issues, which she has so far failed to reveal! She comes across as ignorant and intellectually lazy on just about everything going on in this country and the world, and survives on slogans and patriotic rhetoric, as at the Glenn Beck rally yesterday in Washington, DC!
But if she were to run, could she really become the GOP nominee for President, or even run on a third party, right wing in nature, which might hurt the Republican nominee? Again, it is hard to imagine such occurring!
And were she the GOP nominee, could she REALLY rally the country and defeat President Obama? And could she actually deal with the myriad of domestic and foreign policy issues she would be confronted with, even with advisers to assist her?
Again, the whole scenario seems impossible, but imagine the following: Were she to win the Republican nomination for President, she would be receiving the nomination at the Tampa, Florida convention on--get this--Wednesday, August 29, 2012--exactly two years from today, and four years after being chosen to be the VP nominee!
If that were to happen, the reaction would have to be--UNBELIEVABLE!
Chris Matthews on MSNBC today described a possible horrifying scenario in 2012: Presidential nominee Sarah Palin! 
Matthews' reasoning was that Sarah Palin has a positive image among 76 percent of Republicans, and as the only woman likely to run for President, and with views that place her on the "hard" right of all men who might run, that she would have a decent chance to do well in early primaries and caucuses in 2012!
The argument is that Palin could win the Iowa caucuses because of the strong evangelical influence in that state! While the theory is that Mitt Romney, as a 'favorite son" New Englander in the Boston TV market, would win the New Hampshire primary, it would be dismissed as insignificant!
Then, the theory is that Palin would go to South Carolina, a strong evangelical Christian state, and would win over Romney, who is a Mormon (not considered Christian by many evangelicals)!
Then, she would go to Michigan, the home of Romney's father, who was a potential Presidential candidate in the 1960s, and where Mitt Romney grew up, and in a multi candidate race, in a state with high unemployment and a terrible economy, would pull out a fraction of the vote large enough to be seen as the winner!
If all this happened, the argument of Matthews is that Palin would have "momentum" to win the GOP nomination!
This scenario is a nightmare, but to believe it would actually happen in a time of disillusionment and bad economic times, is seen as an extremist action of Tea Party Movement types, which could present the country with the most extreme GOP candidate since Barry Goldwater in 1964!
And actually, Barry Goldwater, being intelligent and knowledgeable, and ultimately a social liberal in future years, and a libertarian of substance as compared to Rand Paul, would be preferable to a woman who has no substance, no knowledge, and is truly an example of a KNOW NOTHING mediocrity rising to the top!
Of course, even if Sarah Palin were to win the GOP nomination, is there any scenario that can imagine her defeating President Barack Obama?
ONLY if one believes that the nation is ready to go down the drain completely, and elect the most incompetent, idiotic candidate that would ever have been selected by a major political party in the history of the United States!
If that happens, the nation is truly doomed in a complex world that requires a person of brilliance and insight, which Sarah Palin has inability to be! And if that were to happen, it would condemn John McCain forever in history for having given us this woman as a legitimate candidate for national authority!
Sally Quinn of the Washington Post recently came up with the suggestion of Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton switching positions for the Presidential Election of 2012!
Now, former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder has made the same suggestion in an article on the Politico website!
His argument is similar to Sally Quinn's view: that President Obama is going to need the support of Hillary Clinton fans to win in 2012, and that Joe Biden cannot help him win the next election!
The argument is that Hillary is able to win the white working class vote, both male and female, and that is Obama's major Achilles Heel! Hillary would bring out more committed and emotional support, and would be seen as the heir apparent in 2016!
Meanwhile, Biden could have the position he always seemed to want--to be Secretary of State, since he has always been particularly involved in and fascinated by foreign policy, and was long time Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee!
The question is how both Hillary and Joe feel about this concept, as well as President Obama's view! It is clear that Obama is close to Biden, and sees him as an integral part of his administration!
But at the same time, Hillary Clinton has been a very active and committed Secretary of State, and very loyal to her former rival!
So this question will obviously be bandied about a lot in the next six to twelve months, and the question will arise whether the switch would occur with the election, with both Hillary and Joe as "lame ducks' until January 20, 2013, or whether the 25th Amendment would be utilized for the first time since 1974 to make the switch BEFORE the election!
Was this the purpose of the 25th Amendment, to change the Vice Presidency holder for the upcoming election, or only when there was a vacancy due to death, bad health, impeachment, or resignation for corruption reasons of the Vice President or the President?
That is the key issue involved here, and it will certainly be discussed and debated until the situation is clear as to what President Obama, Vice President Biden, and Secretary of State Clinton decide is best for the three of them and for the nation!
Many observers have stated that, in a sense, we have two "royal families" in our midst--the Bushes and the Clintons!
Years ago, it was thought that the Kennedys were a "royal family", with John F. Kennedy in the White House, Robert Kennedy as Attorney General, and Ted Kennedy in the US Senate!
But then President Kennedy was murdered; Robert Kennedy, after being elected to the Senate and running for President, was also assassinated; and Ted Kennedy "self destructed" as far as the Presidency was concerned, as a result of the Chappaquiddick tragedy, although he served a long, distinguished career in the Senate!
But the Bush Family saw George H. W. Bush serve one term as President, and son George W. serve two terms in the White House!
The Clinton Family saw Bill Clinton serve two terms as President, and wife Hillary seek the position as the first serious woman candidate in 2008, and then end up as Secretary of State under her rival, Barack Obama!
The rumor mill now has it that Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida, brother of George W., and younger son of George H. W., will seek the White House in 2012 to reassert the Bush reputation and please his parents, in their high 80s but hoping to live to see a second son become President of the United States! This rumor, the author would say, is quite valid and more expected now than even a few months ago, as the Presidential nomination season comes closer to its start after the midterm elections!
Meanwhile, Bill Clinton has been restoring his reputation as a political "genius", the most active former President ever to get involved in electing others of his party! The former President has become "gold" to candidates, most notably home state Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, who received tremendous campaign support from Clinton in her winning primary challenge! Bill Clinton is actively pursuing helping others as well, and sometimes in various primaries, has endorsed someone other than who the Obama Administration supports! If the Democrats retain much of their margin in Congress and the state governorships, Bill Clinton will gain a lot of the credit!
But there are still rumors that the Clintons and Obama do not like each other very much, despite the fact that Hillary Clinton has been a loyal, hard working Secretary of State for the President. So rumors have it that Obama may not run, and Hillary will run in his place for the Presidency in 2012; or that Hillary will switch positions with Joe Biden, and become the Vice Presidential running! mate for 2012, giving her an edge for the 2016 Presidential nomination; or that Bill and Hillary will repudiate Obama after expected disastrous midterm election results, and that Hillary will resign from the cabinet, and challenge Obama in the 2012 Presidential primaries!
It seems to the author that the first rumor, that Obama will not run, is highly unlikely, although Obama did say once he would rather be a good one term President than a mediocre two term President!
The second rumor seems more possible, that Hillary and Biden might switch roles for the 2012 election, putting Biden in a position that he certainly fits into very well!
The third rumor is preposterous on its face, as Presidents regularly see repudiation in midterm elections, and still come back to win another term handily, as did Harry Truman in 1948, Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Bill Clinton in 1996! Since Hillary agrees with most of what Obama has tried to do, for her to challenge him would only weaken the Democratic Party, divide it, and lead to a GOP victory for the White House in 2012!
Remember that every time in the last century that a sitting President has been challenged for renomination, he has overcome the opponent, but then lost reelection--William Howard Taft vs. Theodore Roosevelt in 1912; Gerald Ford vs. Ronald Reagan in 1976; Jimmy Carter vs Ted Kennedy in 1980; and George H. W. Bush vs Pat Buchanan in 1992!
So likely, the Bush rumor is true, and the second Clinton rumor might be true, while the first Clinton rumor is highly unlikely, and the last Clinton rumor is extremely preposterous on its face!
The Tea Party Movement may have success this year in the midterm elections, and some Republican officeholders may feel comfortable to ally themselves with the movement, but the likelihood is that if they become influential, they will be the Republican party's worse nightmare--uncontrollable, radical, alienating many voters, and causing GOP losses in 2012, both for the Presidency and Congress and the state governments!
Imagine the worst scenario!
Rand Paul becomes Senator from Kentucky!
Sharron Angle becomes Senator from Nevada!
Mike Lee becomes Senator from Utah!
Marco Rubio becomes Senator from Florida!
Pat Toomey becomes Senator from Pennsylvania!
Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint and James Inhofe endorse the Tea Party activists and join in a caucus with them!
Michele Bachmann keeps her Congressional seat, and organizes a Tea Party caucus in the House of Representatives with Tea Party activists who win House seats!
Imagine this and how it will affect John Boehner and Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell and Jon Kyl and other establishment Republicans!
In fact, a conservative website, REDSTATE, projects the "ideal" leadership for the Senate, including Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn and lesser leadership roles for Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey!
It is clear that Republican establishment leaders are fearful of the effects of the Tea Party activists, who will certainly be hard to manage and will be "unruly insurgents", as the Washington Post terms it!
So the Republicans might gain seats, and even, possibly control, but then their worse nightmare will occur, and they could turn off the nation completely by 2012, if they do not come up with magical solutions to make the American people want to vote them in again in 2012!
And the Republican presidential candidate list discussed in an earlier blog entry will rue the day that the Tea Party Movement gained such an impact, as they might do this fall!
President Obama's Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs, has created a firestorm among Congressional Democrats by his assertion that it is possible that the Democrats could lose control of the House of Representatives in the midterm election! The Senate would be much more difficult to lose since the GOP would need ten seats gain, a tall order! Having said that, however, never in the past has one house switched control without the other doing the same!
Gibbs' statement rings true, but it puts the Democrats on the defensive, and it makes some of them wonder if maybe, in some weird fashion, the President might prefer a GOP House so he can use them as a "whipping boy" when he comes up for reelection in 2012!
The argument, historically, could be that three Presidents in their first term, after seeing their party lose control of Congress, was able to use that fact politically to benefit his own reelection, as it made a convenient enemy to attack in the campaign that followed!
This refers to Harry Truman in 1948, after the Republicans gained control of Congress in 1946; Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, after the Democrats took over Congress in 1954; and Bill Clinton in 1996, after the Republicans seized control of Congress in 1994!
In an odd way, it might, actually, be easier for Obama if such were to happen, but to believe that he or his press secretary was trying to set up such a scenario, is ridiculous on its face!
As the midterm elections come upon us, there is contradictory evidence on the popularity of President Obama!
The Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that only 43 percent approve of the job President Obama is doing. Nearly 60 percent do not trust him to have solutions to the problems the nation faces!
But the President is not running for reelection this year, so the question is this: Even if Obama is slipping in popularity, does that truly mean that the country is ready to kick his party out of control of the Congress, and put in a party that has had no ideas or agenda, except to oppose the President in difficult economic times?
The CNN Poll of Polls, a combination of the aforementioned Washington Post-ABC News poll, the CBS poll, and the Gallup poll shows a bit better situation for Obama, with 47 percent in favor and 46 percent against his leadership!
So is this contradictory evidence, which still makes clear that Obama has slipped at least somewhat in popularity, mean he is in trouble for reelection?
The odds are NO, as he is at a higher level of popularity with 47 percent, as compared to Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, at the same point of their first terms (both 42 percent)! And guess what? Both went on to reelection by substantial margins!
At the same point, George H. W. Bush was at 60 percent, and lost reelection! His son, George W. Bush, was the highest with 76 percent, less than a year after September 11, and won reelection handily!
The odds are still heavy that Obama will win reelection, but he may lose control of Congress as Harry Truman did in 1946, Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954, and Bill Clinton in 1994 in their first terms; and as Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush lost control in the midpoint of their second term in the White House in 1918, 1986 and 2006!
Former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who left electoral politics in 1998 after four years as the most controversial Speaker since Joseph Cannon at the beginning of the 20th century, is making clear his interest in running for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2012!
While not declaring his candidacy, he is traveling in the first caucus and primary states, and while in Iowa, he spoke openly about his planning to run, and the fact that he will decide by the early months of 2011!
It is true that it is already time for presidential candidates to travel to the first states that are part of the marathon race for the White House, and many have been in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. But none have gone as far as Gingrich in openly promoting the idea that he plans to run!
Gingrich is, obviously, a very intelligent man of deep thoughts and ideas, and were he to be the nominee against President Barack Obama, it would be a very intellectual race, probably only matched by John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, and Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes in 1916, in the past century!
But Gingrich is also a "flamethrower" who utilizes outrageous, irresponsible statements, and throughout his career in the House, he was more interested in being controversial than in promoting unity or compromise!
If "politics is the art of compromise", then Gingrich is clearly the wrong kind of person to lead the nation in a difficult time economically, socially, and internationally! His Presidency would be far more divisive, and make the political split that exists in Washington, DC far worse than it is now!
It is odd how sometimes Gingrich seems to be very reasonable and sane, but at other times, he is totally whacko in his statements and beliefs! His problem is that he is not believable that he has any strong convictions other than his own desire for power, influence, and constant media attention!
And in a time of fervent morality on the part of many Republicans, do they really want a person who, while condemning the sexual misbehavior of President Bill Clinton, was himself engaged in an extramarital affair behind the back of his second wife, and has been married now three times? Yes, people make mistakes and have moral lapses, but three wives, two divorces, and a reputation of a tone of corruption while he was Speaker? Is this a winning combination for a person who also presided over the loss of seats while Speaker, in 1996 and 1998?
The best advice that could be given to Newt Gingrich is to reconsider the idea of running, as he would not contribute one iota to the solution of our problems, and would instead simply create even more division and turmoil in a nation that does not need it at such a difficult time in our history!