Presidential Election of 2012

Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

Is Bernie Sanders Suicidal, By Praising Education Under Fidel Castro, And Criticizing Israeli Jewish Pressure Group, AIPAC?

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders seems to be suicidal politically, as he reminds us of the great promotion of education under Fidel Castro’s dictatorship in Cuba, insuring that he has no chance to win the state of Florida. He alienates the Cuban American community in South Florida, in a state that has the third largest number of electoral votes, and while it is true that most Cuban Americans vote Republican, Barack Obama did win Florida twice in 2008 and 2012.

Also, Sanders alienates much of the Jewish community in his criticism of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, which has support of a large percentage of American Jews.

The Jewish community usually votes at least 70 percent for Democrats, but now it is seen as possible that Sanders would gain a smaller percentage of Jewish support than any Democrat in many decades. His being Jewish does not help him, as many Jews see him as a traitor to Israel.

Sanders is making clear just how much of a rebel he is, and putting many Democratic members of Congress in an awkward position, as to whether they can support him.

Sanders comes across as someone who is not willing to compromise, and while that may be appealing to his supporters, heavily young idealists, it puts not only him, if he is the nominee, but the party from top to bottom, in a position where they could see a massive destruction electorally of the Democratic Party!

Mitt Romney, A Profile In Courage, First Senator In American History To Vote To Convict President Of His Own Party!

Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, was a true “Profile in Courage” yesterday, by voting to convict Donald Trump on the impeachment charge of “Abuse Of Power”.

This blogger and author was not a great fan of Mitt Romney in his failed 2012 Presidential bid, considering him a hypocrite for criticizing ObamaCare, which was based to a great extent on RomneyCare in Massachusetts. I did not want him as President, and think he lacked enough concern for the average American.

But that is the past, and Romney knows he will suffer attacks and condemnations from within the Republican Party for his action to be the first US Senator in American history to vote to convict a President of his own party in an impeachment trial. That took guts and also showed the true religiosity of Romney with his Mormon faith, whether one agrees or likes the Mormon Church and its teachings.

The accusation that he plans to run for President again is preposterous, and Romney may, very well, not run for reelection in 2024, but the future is not important as the present, to take a stand against the lawlessness and arrogance of Donald Trump.

The fact that Romney’s own niece, Ronna Romney McDaniel, is chair of the Republican National Committee, put her in an awkward position, and she did, indeed, make clear her objection to her uncle’s decision. But that does not matter, and whatever one thinks of Romney in the past, it is clear that his vote is based upon principle and courage, so it is proper to applaud and salute Mitt Romney for a decision that will live in history, and could be another chapter, updated, of John F. Kennedy’s famous “Profiles in Courage” book in 1956!

Romney will withstand the storm of criticism, and if moronic son Donald Trump, Jr is able to have Romney expelled from the Republican Party, as he called for in anger yesterday, the party will be the loser, not Romney.

If Romney is a true independent, he will be a greater Senator long term than being captive to a corrupt political party, so bring it on, is my thought!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

Need For A Challenger To Donald Trump In Republican Party–But Jon Huntsman Or John Kasich, NOT Mark Sanford!

It is past time for some legitimate Republican to challenge Donald Trump, and attempt to save the Republican party brand.

As much as former Governor William Weld of Massachusetts is attempting such a challenge, he is not strong enough, or well known enough, to have any real chance.

The only legitimate challengers would be the two best in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential sweepstakes—Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor, Ambassador to China under Barack Obama, and now resigning as Ambassador to Russia under Donald Trump; and former Ohio Governor and long term Congressman John Kasich.

The idea that former South Carolina Governor and former Congressman Mark Sanford might run is not a realistic or worthwhile endeavor, as Sanford had a sex scandal a decade ago that forced him out of the Governorship, and he is no model for Presidential leadership skills and ability, which at least William Weld does have.

Huntsman or Kasich would be a realistic alternative for conservatives who are appalled by Donald Trump in every way possible!

A Sense That Two”Old White Men” (Biden, Sanders) Are Declining, And Two Women (Warren, Harris)Are Rising In The Democratic Presidential Sweepstakes

As the summer wears on toward Labor Day, a growing feeling among many political observers is that the two “old white men”—Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders—are declining in support, and that two women—Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris— are rising in the Democratic Presidential sweepstakes.

One can see that Sanders is clearly slipping in support, while Warren, in particular, and Harris lesser so, are clearly rising, but what about Joe Biden, who remains as the front runner?

Well, Biden has been making a lot of gaffes recently, blunders that are embarrassing, and making one wonder if he is in mental decline, a sad thought, but not uncommon in the late 70s. Joe is loved by millions, and certainly is far less harmful and dangerous than Donald Trump, but the fear is that he will not be able to perform well in debates with Trump. When he debated Republican Vice Presidential candidates Sarah Palin in 2008 and Paul Ryan in 2012, he was outstanding, as he was in the Presidential debates in 2008 although he could not get voting support once the caucuses and primaries began in that year.

This is 11 and 7 years later, and it is worrisome that Joe Biden may not be up to the grueling demands of a campaign and to serve as President from age 78 to age 82 or 86. And although Bernie Sanders may seem in better shape by comparison at the moment, he would be 79-87, 14 months older than Biden in a one term or two term Presidency.

After the experience of Ronald Reagan’s decline in office, notable in his second term, and Donald Trump’s every day signs of dangerous decline, the question is whether electing either Biden or Sanders, or even Elizabeth Warren, who would be 71-79 in two terms of office, older at inauguration than Donald Trump was, is a wise idea.

So even with Warren surging, it could be that Kamala Harris, who would be 56-64 in two terms of office, might have the edge as voters look to the Democratic caucuses and primaries, and the election itself in less than 15 months.

From Barry Goldwater And Hugh Scott To Mitt Romney And Mitch McConnell: The Loss of Republican Principle

Forty five years ago, there were distinguished Republican Senators who stood up for principle, and pressured President Richard Nixon to resign for his abuse of power in the Watergate Scandal.

These included 1964 Republican Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater of Arizona, and Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, who went to the White House with others to inform him that the vast majority of Republicans were not with the President, and would vote to remove him in an upcoming impeachment trial.

Like any Senator, they wished to promote the advancement of their party and its goals, but also believed in the rule of law.

So they stand out as profiles in courage for their public actions and statements, which did the Republican Party proud.

Now, 45 years later, we have Republican Senators, who on the surface are principled and unhappy about the abuse of power of President Donald Trump, but beyond words, will not take action to inform Donald Trump that his time is up.

So we have Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee; and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Romney has condemned the actions and behavior of President Donald Trump, but it is just words, as Romney has refused to take leadership to promote the impeachment or resignation of the 45th President.

Meanwhile, McConnell, who worked to deny Barack Obama a second term in the Presidency, and to prevent Merrick Garland from being considered for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2016, has led the charge to cooperate with Trump, as the only purposes McConnell cares about are more massive tax cuts for the wealthy one percent, and the promotion of extremist right wing judges and justices, which will distort constitutional law for the next two generations.

Newt Gingrich The True Villain: In The 1990s, Out To Divide And Create A Chasm In American Life That Set The Stage For Donald Trump

Newt Gingrich was for four years Speaker of the House of Representatives (1995-1999).

He became the model for Donald Trump in the mid 1990s, promoting division and creating a chasm in American politics, ending an era of “crossing the aisle” to promote bipartisanship.

Instead, his goal was to add to his own ego, and declare war on the opposition party, a plan hatched in the mid 1980s when he came to Congress, after having been a history professor with a Ph. D., who saw an opportunity to strive for House leadership, and promote a “revolution” in the way the House of Representatives worked.

Gingrich is the true villain, who can be credited or blamed for promoting a chasm in American life, dividing America in a bid for absolute power. It is clear that had Newt Gingrich somehow been elected President in 2012, or had been chosen by Donald Trump to be his Vice Presidential running mate in 2016, that he had set the model for the abuses that have become every day life in America in the age of Trump.

Goodbye And Good Riddance To Speaker Of The House Paul Ryan: A Despicable Legacy Of Ayn Rand Worship And Obedience To Donald Trump

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be leaving Congress, and the best way to look at it is: Goodbye and Good Riddance.

Ryan is a despicable legacy of Ayn Rand worship, whose goal in Congress, luckily unmet, was to wipe out the Social Welfare State of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society, along with other reforms brought about by other Presidents of both political parties.

Ryan seemed excited at the thought of ending Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, although he gained from Social Security when his father died when he was a child, but seemed unperturbed in denying those less fortunate, and poor mothers and children the idea of any government support in their plight.

A so called “good Catholic”, who actually was denounced by Catholic leaders for his hard hearted attitude toward the poor and sick, he was anti abortion but did not care what happened once a child was born.

Ryan also showed willingness to be obedient toward Donald Trump’s abuse of power, and he presided over a massive increase in the national debt by his promotion of massive tax cuts to the wealthy, and his party now has to own the great increase in the national debt that occurred under George W. Bush and Donald Trump, which he ignored, while being constantly critical of Barack Obama, and refusing to come up with an alternative to ObamaCare.

The thought that he could be a heartbeat away from the Presidency as the potential Vice President under Mitt Romney in the 2012 Presidential Campaign was horrifying, and this author denounced Ryan regularly at that time, and was bitterly attacked by the right wing in a vicious manner, but that did not intimidate me in calling him a disgraceful and despicable Republican leader.

To say that he was worse than the previous Speakers John Boehner and Dennis Hastert is quite a testimony to the disaster he represented as two heartbeats away from the Presidency while Speaker from 2015-2018.

He is being replaced by Democrat Nancy Pelosi, previously Speaker of the House from 2007-2011, the most productive years of any Speaker going back to the times of Thomas “Tip” O’Neill from 1977-1987.

Growing Likelihood Of Challengers To Donald Trump For GOP Presidential Nomination In 2020

With Donald Trump being “individual No. 1”, clearly the center of probes by Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, and also by the Southern District of New York, the likelihood grows of Republicans, who have just come off a 40 seat loss in the House and control of the lower chamber, being alarmed enough that serious challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination for a second term seem likely.

One can expect the following Republicans to consider challenges to Trump.

Outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Presidential nominee.

Outgoing Arizona Senator Jeff Flake.

Former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

There could be others as well, but this list seems quite realistic, although the more that challenge Trump, the less likely there would be success.

It would be much easier if only one challenger took the bait, and went after Trump.

One can think back to 1979-1980, when President Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and California Governor Jerry Brown.  

The one thing about even one challenger to a sitting President is that the result has been that while the President won the nomination, he ended up losing the election, with three of the four times losing massively.

William Howard Taft won only 23 percent in 1912 after being challenged by former President Theodore Roosevelt, and having to deal with TR as the Progressive Party nominee, as well as Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.

Jimmy Carter won only 41 percent in 1980 after being challenged by Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and having to deal with an independent nominee, John Anderson, as well as Republican nominee Ronald Reagan.

George H. W.  Bush won only 37 percent in 1992 after being challenged by Pat Buchanan, and having to deal with independent nominee Ross Perot and Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

At this point, before we begin the new year, it would seem as if John Kasich would have the upper hand on a challenge over others, and that Ben Sasse, representing a new generation of conservative leadership, would be an additional major challenge to Trump, were Sasse willing to mount a campaign.

Of course, any challenge to Trump would also be indirectly a challenge to Vice President Mike Pence as the “heir apparent”.