Presidential Election of 2012

Trump Appointments That Declare “War”: Health And Human Services, Education, Labor, Environmental Protection Agency, Interior, Justice, Energy

Donald Trump has made a horrific list of cabinet and other appointments that have declared “war” on domestic concerns that extend from the time of Theodore Roosevelt through to Barack Obama, with particularly great threat to the heritage of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society.

The appointment of Tom Price as Secretary of Health and Human Services endangers Social Security. Medicare, Medicaid, and Food Stamps–affecting the poor, elderly and sick.

The appointment of Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education endangers public education at all level, and concerns about college debt burdens for millions of college and university students, and promotes the “Christianization” and charter school movement against American traditions of two hundred years.

The appointment of Tom Puzder as Secretary of Labor endangers the whole labor movement advancements of the past century, including unionization, minimum wage, sick leave, overtime, and safety conditions.

The appointment of Scott Pruitt as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and of Ryan Zinke as Secretary of the Interior endangers the environment, and our national park and national forest system in massive ways that are incalculable.

The appointment of Jeff Sessions as Attorney General of the United States endangers the enforcement of civil liberties and civil rights, and will be particularly dangerous to the rights of racial minorities, women, and gays and lesbians.

The appointment of Rick Perry as Secretary of Energy endangers the nation, as Perry is totally ignorant of science and nuclear energy, and wanted to destroy the department, based on his statements during Presidential debates in 2011 and since.

We are faced with a nightmare scenario, as probably the most that might be expected is the blocking of potentially one or two of these nominees at the most, but the clear cut possibility that all of them will be confirmed by the Republican majority in the US Senate, and the Democrats will not be able to stop any of them from destroying our domestic future!

Totally Unqualified For Cabinet: Ben Carson, Rick Perry, Rex Tillerson, And They Should All Be Rejected By US Senate!

Donald Trump has selected three cabinet members who have absolutely no background for the positions they have been chosen for.

Ben Carson was a pediatric surgeon, who was conveniently given a “golden parachute” to leave Johns Hopkins Hospital since his behavior was becoming strange and weird, as people watching the Presidential campaign certainly noticed. He has NO qualifications to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, other than that he grew up in a poor family and lived in public housing in Detroit.

Rick Perry was 14 year Governor of Texas, and is not the brightest bulb in American politics, and when he sought the Presidency in 2011, he could not recall the Energy Department was one of the cabinet agencies he thought should be closed down. Now he is nominated to head that agency, although he has no knowledge of nuclear weapons or energy, and received Cs, Ds, and Fs in Science courses at Texas A & M University.

Rex Tillerson has been CEO of Exxon Mobil, and has never served in government, and is a chum of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who gave him the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner, and they have done oil deals together and get along splendidly. But that is alarming to John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio and other Republicans, as well as Democrats, and would make Ronald Reagan turn over in his grave, as Barack Obama said today in a news conference, that such a pro Russian oil executive with ZERO knowledge of foreign policy, should be the nominee for Secretary of State.

All three should be stopped in committee by the Republicans or by filibuster by the Democrats in the Senate, as all three are a disgrace to the positions they have been nominated for by Donald Trump!

Would Mitt Romney Work For Donald Trump As Secretary Of State?

The mere suggestion that Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, who vehemently opposed Donald Trump throughout the 2016 campaign, will be visiting with Trump, and might agree to be his Secretary of State, is mind blowing.

Romney is the most credible nominee for any post yet to be rumored to be a possible cabinet member for Trump, but it is hard to imagine that Romney would actually be offered such a position, or would agree to such appointment.

The two men are temperamentally exact opposites, and Romney ran his campaign in 2012 warning us how dangerous Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, were, while Donald Trump has praised Putin, and suggested a bromance with the Russian leader.

How would Romney reconcile that difference, and how would Trump do the same?

Romney would add some badly needed stature to the Trump cabinet, but what would he get out of it, other than being mistreated by a boss who would be looking forward to firing him, or forcing him to resign over policy differences?

How would Romney overcome National Security Adviser nominee Michael Flynn’s close association and impact on President Trump?

And why would Romney want to give up his close family activities, and spend, if he survived in office, the next four years doing the toughest job in the world, in regards to stress and constant travel, such as a million miles in four years, as occurred with Hillary Clinton, and close to that mileage, if not more, for John Kerry?

Disarray At Trump Tower: So Many Candidates, Some Totally Dangerous Or Ridiculous! And Major Problems For Midtown Manhattan!

There is disarray in Trump Tower in Manhattan, and massive traffic issues below in midtown Manhattan.

Donald Trump seems to want to live in Trump Tower a lot of the time, rather than the White House, which creates major traffic, economic, and security issues.

Fifth Avenue and 56th Street is now barricaded, and traffic will become impossible, and trying to protect the President-Elect is a security nightmare, as it requires tremendous manpower of New York City Police and the Secret Service, and is creating problems for businesses, auto traffic, and pedestrians, which will only get worse.

But also, Trump seems totally disorganized, and rumors are spreading of some candidates for different positions in the government who are totally dangerous or ridiculous!

For Secretary of State, the candidates seem to include former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton; South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley; and former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The first two named are dangerous for the State Department, as they have no sense of personal diplomacy, and are both loud mouths, with Bolton being the more scary. Haley adds good looks and a woman to the list, but no real qualifications to be Secretary of State. Mitt Romney is the most credible, but really has no diplomatic experience to speak of. And Haley and Romney were bitter opponents of Trump, and did not endorse him.

Then we have the crazy idea of Sarah Palin being Secretary of Interior or Secretary of Energy!

Already, we have Stephen Bannon as Chief Counselor and Senior Adviser in the White House, despite his racist, nativist, antisemitic, Islamophobic, homophobic, and misogynist behavior and utterances. And we have General Michael Flynn, fired by Barack Obama from the Defense Intelligence Agency leadership in 2014, who has also shown elements of antisemitism, and suggested that Hillary Clinton be jailed, to be National Security Adviser. These two appointments do not require Senate confirmation, but it is clear with the chaos in Trump Tower, that Donald Trump will have problems with confirmation of some of his cabinet and other appointments.

Donald Trump Delusional: North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia All Gone

Donald Trump is totally delusional, running all over the nation, claiming he is winning, when it is assured he will lose big time in tomorrow’s election!

Trump seems to think he will win North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia, but they are all gone!

Trump will have trouble keeping “Red” states, including Arizona, Utah, and even Texas, and is assured to lose North Carolina, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 but for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump will have to keep all “Red” states, and win all “Swing” states too, or take a “Blue” state, and anyone who is betting on all that is a fool!

The surging Latino vote and women’s vote insures that Trump will lose Florida, and that will be, effectively, the end of the election before November 8 ends!

Final Projections On Electoral College And Presidential Election Of 2016

Ok, the time has arrived for my final projection on the Presidential election of 2016.

I project that all Barack Obama states will go to Hillary Clinton, except for Iowa–25 of 26 states in 2012–18 “Blue” states plus DC, and 7 “swing” or “purple” states. Iowa would be the only “swing” or “purple” state that would go “Red”.

At the same time, two “Red” or Romney states–North Carolina and Arizona–would swing to the Democrats.

The math means 6 votes are subtracted from Iowa for Clinton, while 26 electoral votes are added to Clinton’s side, with 15 electoral votes from North Carolina and 11 electoral votes from Arizona.

So instead of 332 electoral votes for Obama, the final total for Clinton will be 352, against 186 for Donald Trump as compared to 206 for Romney.

Hillary Clinton would have 27 states to 23 for Trump, as compared to 24 for Romney, so gain of one state for the Democrats.

We shall see how accurate I am in this third round of Presidential Projections after 2008 and 2012.

A more detailed article has been published on History News Network yesterday, and is now posted on this blog as well, on the right hand side!

Looking Back At My Projections on the Presidential Races Of 2008 And 2012

As I am about to project the Presidential race of 2016, it is a good idea to look back at my projections on this blog in 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, I projected a final electoral vote of 364-174 and 28 states, and I was only off by ONE electoral vote, as I projected the state of Missouri with 10 electoral votes would go for Barack Obama over John McCain, rather than Indiana with 11 electoral votes! So by winning Indiana, and not Missouri, Barack Obama won the Electoral College with 365-173.

In 2012, I projected a final electoral vote of 332-206 and 26 states, and was totally correct that Obama would defeat Mitt Romney!

So I hope I will be totally accurate this time, when I announce my projection tomorrow!

So for two elections, I was off by only ONE electoral vote, assuming wrongly that Missouri, not Indiana, would go for Obama in 2008!

A Hillary Clinton Alliance With Bernie Sanders And Elizabeth Warren For Progressive Change After The Election

There are many progressives who are skeptical about Hillary Clinton’s commitment to progressive reform. They seem willing to allow Donald Trump to be elected, which is suicidal behavior.

That is unacceptable behavior, although it is understandable that Hillary Clinton’s husband, Bill Clinton, was far from a great progressive in his time, and this blogger has well expressed that reality over the years.

Readers of this blog know that the author was and is a Joe Biden fan, which also may not please the most left wing progressives.

But this blogger believes that insisting on purity is the road to disaster, as when progressives found Hubert Humphrey unacceptable in 1968, giving us Richard Nixon; and when progressives found Al Gore unacceptable in 2000, giving us George W. Bush.

For this nation to elect a far left progressive is never going to happen, and the way forward is incremental reform, as the right wing forces are not going away, and have great power and influence.

So there are those who would say Barack Obama was not progressive enough, but imagine if we had ended up with John McCain or Mitt Romney.

This blogger believes that Hillary Clinton will be committed to progressive reform when she is President, and that she will have an alliance with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but a lot depends on electing a Democratic Senate and narrowing the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

Time To Confront Newt Gingrich And Rudy Giuliani On Media For Their Invoking Bill Clinton, When Their Own Behavior Is Equally Horrible!

One of the most obnoxious developments of the Presidential campaign is Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, and Rudy Giuliani, former NYC Mayor, both with scandalous private lives, clear womanizers, extreme misogynists, speaking up to defend Donald Trump’s obscene statements and behavior regarding women.

All three have been married three times and have cheated on their wives while married, and most likely, are still cheating on their present third wives.

All three are the lowest of the low, breaking up families, harming their children no matter how much the children might deny it, while Bill Clinton, despite his totally reprehensible behavior, kept his family together, and remains, despite his terrible behavior, in love with his wife.

In many ways, the Bill and Hillary Clinton marriage reminds us of the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt marriage, with its ups and downs, but real basic love for each other very obvious.

For Gingrich and Giuliani in 2012 and 2008, respectively, to have run for President with their disgraceful private life, as Trump has now, and yet to criticize Hillary Clinton, is the height of hypocrisy.

Kudos to Fox News Channel’s Megyn Kelly for NOT allowing Gingrich to bully her, but of course, Trump went ahead and applauded Gingrich for attacking her, and the effect is to make a mass movement of women abandoning the Republican Party this November, and possibly, for the long term, until and when the GOP no longer endorses misogyny and bad personal behavior in its candidates and its members in the Congress and in the states.

More media people need to openly confront Gingrich, Giuliani,and Trump directly about their behavior, and put them on the defensive. Kudos to Anderson Cooper of CNN for already doing so!

We cannot allow bullies to get away with their actions and behavior, and the American people would salute media personalities, like Cooper, who challenge openly the hypocrisy of these characters!

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.