Presidential Election of 2012

Final Projection On Presidential Election Of 2020

On April 30, I did an early projection on the Presidential Election of 2020.

Six months later to the day, and after having gone through so much pain and suffering as a nation, with a President who is totally uncaring and incompetent, as well as corrupt and despicable in personality and policies for the past four years, I look forward to a massive landslide victory of Joe Biden. He is a very decent, compassionate man who can bring us together after the four year nightmare we have experienced.

My estimate is based on my knowledge and perception of what has been going on politically in this nation, and my historical perspective over a half century of teaching, writing, publishing and speaking.

The judgment of what will happen has been slightly changed, but not by much.

So let’s make it clear that I fully expect Joe Biden to win a massive landslide, with about 54-55 percent of the national popular vote to Donald Trump’s 43 percent, less than he gained in 2016.

The Electoral College will end up, I believe, as 413-125, and 30 states for Biden and 20 states for Trump.

One might be surprised that Trump would win 20 states and ONLY get 125 electoral votes, but that is so because none of the 20 states has a large population, with only Tennessee and Indiana having 11 electoral votes each, and four small rural states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska) having a minimum 3 electoral votes each.

So Trump wins rural America, which is dying more every decade as young people leave for better opportunities, and that means these states, heavily consisting of poor people, white and minority, has no long range future, and will be further trivialized in future decades. Only Mormon Utah is growing rapidly in population, and only a few medium sized cities are in these states, including St Louis and Kansas City in Missouri; Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee,: New Orleans in Louisiana; Indianapolis in Indiana; and Salt Lake City in Utah. One can believe that over time, some of these 20 states will turn Blue and give up on the Republican Party, if they have any sense of the future, and this might happen over time with Missouri and Tennessee.

So my estimate is that Joe Biden easily wins the Electoral College, simply by winning the 20 Hillary Clinton states in 2016, and adding the three Midwestern states she lost by very small margins—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and also winning the 2nd Congressional District of Omaha, Nebraska, for a total of 279 electoral votes. That is all that is needed, but it seems highly likely that Joe Biden will also win the Southern states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, as well as win the Midwestern states of Ohio and Iowa, and add the Southwestern state of Arizona, adding up to 413 electoral votes from 30 states.

We will see how accurate this blogger and author is, but a reminder that in 2008, I was one electoral vote off, thinking Barack Obama would win Missouri (10 electoral votes) and lose Indiana (11 electoral votes), and just the opposite happened.

And in 2012, this author and blogger was totally accurate on the Electoral College, so I hope I am proved correct in 2020.

But the most important point is that IF Biden just wins 23 states, he will become the 46th President of the United States!

Nebraska District 2 And Maine District 2 Could Decide Presidential Election Of 2020? Really? Yes!

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allow a split electoral vote, with Nebraska having 5 electoral votes and Maine having 4 electoral votes.

But in 2008, Barack Obama won one electoral vote in Nebraska, while the state majority went Republican.

And in 2016, Donald Trump won one electoral vote in Maine, while the state majority went Democratic.

Assuming Joe Biden won back just two Trump states from 2016–Pennsylvania and Michigan, but failed to win back Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, other Obama states in 2012 lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the following possible scenarios could occur!

We would go from 306 for Trump and subtract 20 for Pennsylvania and 16 for Michigan, and Biden would win with exactly 270 electoral votes!

But if the one Maine district stayed with Trump, the electoral vote would be a tie, 269-269, and the House of Representatives would choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, with each state having one vote based on the majority of either party holding Congressional seats in each state.

But the 269-269 vote could be overcome if the one Nebraska district switched to support of Biden, as it did for Obama in 2008, and Biden would have 270 electoral votes!

Right now 26 states have Republican majority delegations, but that could change, if the Democrats were able to win two more states with a majority delegation of their party.

Of course, seven states only have one House member, so that person alone determines the state vote in those seven states.

Also, if we ended up with 25 states having a Republican and 25 having Democratic majority delegations, then there would be a massive constitutional crisis with the tie that would exist!

We could have Inauguration Day approach, and no certainty that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be declared the winner.

So then, Nancy Pelosi, assuming the House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands, would become Acting President until, somehow, the deadlock was broken!

Time For Republican Giants George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman To Endorse And Vote For Joe Biden, As Essential For Nation’s Future!

Now that the Republican National Convention is done, and with Donald Trump acting more crazy and corrupt by the day, it is time for action by well known Republican leaders!

Many former Republican members of past Presidential administrations, as well as many who had worked for Donald Trump until they were forced out or quit on their own, have condemned Trump and crossed party lines to endorse and support Joe Biden.

Also, many former Republican members of Congress have done the same, and so have many conservative commentators who are columnists for newspapers and online media.

The amount of rejection of Donald Trump is a record breaker, and has never been matched by any previous President so outraging party members that they abandoned ship.

Sadly, the same cannot be said for Republican office holders in the House of Representatives and US Senate, although privately, many have expressed unhappiness, but are unwilling to speak up in opposition, particularly if they are on the ballot themselves this year. So, as a result, many of them will go down in a flaming and crashing defeat this November, and have, in the process, lost all their dignity and self respect!

But at this time, there are three high profile Republicans who need to stand up and show their principles, reject Donald Trump openly, and endorse Joe Biden to save the nation!

The first is former President George W. Bush, who had through confidential sources, made clear he is not supporting Donald Trump, who has trashed him and his family for years, including the departed George H. W. and Barbara Bush, brother Jeb Bush, and the former President himself.

It is time for Bush to speak up, as a retired President, and openly condemn Trump and endorse Biden, who he knows very well, gets along with, and respects. Party lines do not matter now, but the nation and its future, so come on, George W, and redeem some of your reputation harmed by your eight year Presidency!

Secondly, Utah Senator and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who voted for impeachment conviction of Donald Trump on one of two counts, and has been a strong critic of Trump, needs to go further than not voting for Trump, as in 2016, and then voting for his wife.

That is silly, and passing the buck, and what Romney needs to do is endorse Joe Biden as the person he might not agree with on many issues, but is a safe choice to lead the nation, but leaving Romney the opening to disagree on future policies if he feels a need to do so.

There is no gamble on doing this, as Romney does not face election for his Senate seat until 2024, and may very well choose not to run for another six year term at then the age of 77. And if he did, as a Mormon in Mormon dominated Utah, which saw Independent Evan McMullin, a conservative, won 21.5 percent of the popular vote in 2016, and with Hillary Clinton winning 27.5 percent, it meant together they had more popular votes and percentage than Donald Trump, as Mormons do find Trump distasteful. So Mitt Romney needs to step up like a man and endorse Joe Biden!

And finally, another leading figure, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who served as Ambassador to China under Democrat Barack Obama, and ambassador to Russia under Donald Trump, needs to show courage and endorse Joe Biden over his former boss. Huntsman was very quiet while in Moscow, but it seems clear he was uncomfortable, and chose to leave before this campaign year.

This author and blogger has always admired Huntsman, going back to when he agreed to go to China for Barack Obama, and then sought the Presidency in 2012 as a Republican contender. Huntsman is solid on foreign policy, and very decent and principled and rational in a party which has had horrific contenders for the most part in 2012 and 2016.

Seriously, other than Huntsman in 2012 and John Kasich in 2016, no one else made this blogger and author comfortable enough to imagine being able to accept as a potential President, with Huntsman more so than Kasich.

As a fan of Huntsman, and respecting him despite differences on some domestic issues, since I am a proud progressive, I say it is time for Huntsman to condemn Trump, and fully endorse Joe Biden.

And after the hoped for election of Biden, it would be appropriate and smart for Joe Biden to offer Jon Huntsman a top Cabinet position, such as Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, or Secretary of Homeland Security. It is common for a Democratic President to have one Republican in his Cabinet, and who better than Huntsman, who has been bipartisan and is only nearing 61 years of age in March 2021.

Come on, President Bush, Senator Romney, and most significantly, Ambassador Huntsman, do the right thing and fully endorse Joe Biden for the safety and security of the nation!

Is “White Flight” Against Republicans And Donald Trump Occurring In 2020?

Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!

Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

Is Bernie Sanders Suicidal, By Praising Education Under Fidel Castro, And Criticizing Israeli Jewish Pressure Group, AIPAC?

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders seems to be suicidal politically, as he reminds us of the great promotion of education under Fidel Castro’s dictatorship in Cuba, insuring that he has no chance to win the state of Florida. He alienates the Cuban American community in South Florida, in a state that has the third largest number of electoral votes, and while it is true that most Cuban Americans vote Republican, Barack Obama did win Florida twice in 2008 and 2012.

Also, Sanders alienates much of the Jewish community in his criticism of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, which has support of a large percentage of American Jews.

The Jewish community usually votes at least 70 percent for Democrats, but now it is seen as possible that Sanders would gain a smaller percentage of Jewish support than any Democrat in many decades. His being Jewish does not help him, as many Jews see him as a traitor to Israel.

Sanders is making clear just how much of a rebel he is, and putting many Democratic members of Congress in an awkward position, as to whether they can support him.

Sanders comes across as someone who is not willing to compromise, and while that may be appealing to his supporters, heavily young idealists, it puts not only him, if he is the nominee, but the party from top to bottom, in a position where they could see a massive destruction electorally of the Democratic Party!

Mitt Romney, A Profile In Courage, First Senator In American History To Vote To Convict President Of His Own Party!

Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, was a true “Profile in Courage” yesterday, by voting to convict Donald Trump on the impeachment charge of “Abuse Of Power”.

This blogger and author was not a great fan of Mitt Romney in his failed 2012 Presidential bid, considering him a hypocrite for criticizing ObamaCare, which was based to a great extent on RomneyCare in Massachusetts. I did not want him as President, and think he lacked enough concern for the average American.

But that is the past, and Romney knows he will suffer attacks and condemnations from within the Republican Party for his action to be the first US Senator in American history to vote to convict a President of his own party in an impeachment trial. That took guts and also showed the true religiosity of Romney with his Mormon faith, whether one agrees or likes the Mormon Church and its teachings.

The accusation that he plans to run for President again is preposterous, and Romney may, very well, not run for reelection in 2024, but the future is not important as the present, to take a stand against the lawlessness and arrogance of Donald Trump.

The fact that Romney’s own niece, Ronna Romney McDaniel, is chair of the Republican National Committee, put her in an awkward position, and she did, indeed, make clear her objection to her uncle’s decision. But that does not matter, and whatever one thinks of Romney in the past, it is clear that his vote is based upon principle and courage, so it is proper to applaud and salute Mitt Romney for a decision that will live in history, and could be another chapter, updated, of John F. Kennedy’s famous “Profiles in Courage” book in 1956!

Romney will withstand the storm of criticism, and if moronic son Donald Trump, Jr is able to have Romney expelled from the Republican Party, as he called for in anger yesterday, the party will be the loser, not Romney.

If Romney is a true independent, he will be a greater Senator long term than being captive to a corrupt political party, so bring it on, is my thought!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

Need For A Challenger To Donald Trump In Republican Party–But Jon Huntsman Or John Kasich, NOT Mark Sanford!

It is past time for some legitimate Republican to challenge Donald Trump, and attempt to save the Republican party brand.

As much as former Governor William Weld of Massachusetts is attempting such a challenge, he is not strong enough, or well known enough, to have any real chance.

The only legitimate challengers would be the two best in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential sweepstakes—Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor, Ambassador to China under Barack Obama, and now resigning as Ambassador to Russia under Donald Trump; and former Ohio Governor and long term Congressman John Kasich.

The idea that former South Carolina Governor and former Congressman Mark Sanford might run is not a realistic or worthwhile endeavor, as Sanford had a sex scandal a decade ago that forced him out of the Governorship, and he is no model for Presidential leadership skills and ability, which at least William Weld does have.

Huntsman or Kasich would be a realistic alternative for conservatives who are appalled by Donald Trump in every way possible!

A Sense That Two”Old White Men” (Biden, Sanders) Are Declining, And Two Women (Warren, Harris)Are Rising In The Democratic Presidential Sweepstakes

As the summer wears on toward Labor Day, a growing feeling among many political observers is that the two “old white men”—Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders—are declining in support, and that two women—Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris— are rising in the Democratic Presidential sweepstakes.

One can see that Sanders is clearly slipping in support, while Warren, in particular, and Harris lesser so, are clearly rising, but what about Joe Biden, who remains as the front runner?

Well, Biden has been making a lot of gaffes recently, blunders that are embarrassing, and making one wonder if he is in mental decline, a sad thought, but not uncommon in the late 70s. Joe is loved by millions, and certainly is far less harmful and dangerous than Donald Trump, but the fear is that he will not be able to perform well in debates with Trump. When he debated Republican Vice Presidential candidates Sarah Palin in 2008 and Paul Ryan in 2012, he was outstanding, as he was in the Presidential debates in 2008 although he could not get voting support once the caucuses and primaries began in that year.

This is 11 and 7 years later, and it is worrisome that Joe Biden may not be up to the grueling demands of a campaign and to serve as President from age 78 to age 82 or 86. And although Bernie Sanders may seem in better shape by comparison at the moment, he would be 79-87, 14 months older than Biden in a one term or two term Presidency.

After the experience of Ronald Reagan’s decline in office, notable in his second term, and Donald Trump’s every day signs of dangerous decline, the question is whether electing either Biden or Sanders, or even Elizabeth Warren, who would be 71-79 in two terms of office, older at inauguration than Donald Trump was, is a wise idea.

So even with Warren surging, it could be that Kamala Harris, who would be 56-64 in two terms of office, might have the edge as voters look to the Democratic caucuses and primaries, and the election itself in less than 15 months.