Presidential Election of 2012

Reality Of American Politics: Win Majority Of Hispanic And Latino Vote Or Lose Presidency In The Future!

Statistics now show that any Presidential nominee from now on MUST win the majority of the Hispanic-Latino vote or lose the Presidency, which insures that Democrats will continue to win the Presidency until and when the Republican Party and its candidates stop attacking the issue of immigration, and accept that the white vote is simply not enough to win the White House. In 2016, it is estimated that to win the Presidency, Donald Trump would have to win 47 percent of the Hispanic-Latino vote, which means by 2020, it will be necessary to win the majority forever after.

George W. Bush won the Presidency with 35 and 40 percent of the vote, while John McCain won 31 percent and Mitt Romney won 27 percent and lost the Presidency.

The latest estimate is that Donald Trump is winning 19 percent of the vote, and that is before his vicious, nasty, hard line speech in Phoenix, which certainly lost him many more Hispanic and Latino votes.

The Hispanic and Latino vote, particularly the Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, are growing rapidly, and already in population, all Hispanics and Latinos are about one out of every six people in America.

And when you add in the Asian American vote and the African American vote, it is clear the Republican Party is doomed long term, as 73 percent of the former and 90 percent of the latter group voted Democratic for President in 2012, and that both numbers will probably go up for Hillary Clinton.

So allowing white nationalists and hate mongers like KKK former leader Davide Duke to be connected to Donald Trump only insures disastrous defeat for Donald Trump and any future GOP nominee who continued to promote nativism and racism.

Large Crowds For Speeches Not Indication Of Voting Results, Just An Entertainment Event!

Many Donald Trump supporters love to point out that he has tremendously large crowds which come out for all of his political rallies.

They say that is an indication of the enthusiasm that exists for the Trump Presidential candidacy.

And yet, all of the public opinion polls indicate a massive edge for Hillary Clinton.

So what gives here?

The answer is that large crowds have never been an indicator of voting results, and should be seen as an entertainment event that costs nothing, and therefore will draw large crowds.

Remember Donald Trump is primarily an entertainer, a reality TV star, a man of charisma, known for more than 30 years as a public figure.

And in other elections, the candidate who lost had very large crowds come to his event–as with George McGovern in 1972 and Mitt Romney in 2012, as two examples.

Where else can you get close to a well known person, who can be funny and as interesting, with his rants and ravings, as Donald Trump is, and pay nothing, and find people who feel the same as you?

So Trump crowds are NO indication of the total disaster about to take over the Trump Presidential bid.

Would Mike Pence Help Donald Trump And Be An Asset? NO!

Mike Pence is said to be Donald Trump’s choice for Vice President.

The Indiana Governor brings his comparative youth at age 57 compared to Trump who is 70.

He brings 12 years of Congressional experience and leadership of the Republican Conference for two years, as well as four years as Governor of a potential “Swing” State, which went to Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

He is a less dynamic person, not the type to seek controversy, and very different in that sense than Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich.

But his hard line social conservative views, which make him popular with the Christian Right, is not going to help Donald Trump win the Presidency.

Pence allowed the passage and signing of a bill that discriminated against gays and lesbians in public accommodations, and then had to ask for a revision of it, when corporations decided to oppose it and moved to stop expansion into the state, a blow to the Indiana economy. In backing off a bit, he alienated the most extreme social conservatives, who are anti abortion, anti gay rights and anti gay marriage, deny climate change, and work against women being equal in a family unit to their husbands.

We are not going back to the 1950s, or to a white supremacist America, where minorities have little input or concern, and where whites claim they are being discriminated against.

This election will be the 1950s white dominated America pre civil rights, pre woman;s rights, pre gay rights, pre environmental movement, pre immigration reform America against 21st century America with all of the advancements in human rights and science that have occurred in the past half century!

Evan Bayh Guarantees Indiana Will Go To The Democratic Presidential Nominee, Hillary Clinton!

Former Indiana Senator Evan Byah, the son of former Senator Birch Bayh, chose not to run for reelection in 2010 after 12 years in the Senate.

But now, six years later, he has decided to come back and run for his seat, and will likely take it away from whomever the Republicans run to succeed retiring Senator Dan Coats, who also gave up his seat and then came back to run again for it in 2010.

We can chalk this up as a certain Democratic gain toward their hoped for majority in the US Senate, which will be crucial in so many ways, including the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices.

Bayh is a moderate centrist Democrat, the kind who can help Hillary Clinton win Indiana, which Barack Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012.

So at least one “Red” state can be considered a gain for the Democrats, insuring even more that Hillary will be elected the 45th President of the United States in November.

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

Speaker Paul Ryan Totally Out Of Line In Demanding That Hillary Clinton Be Denied Access To Intelligence Information As Nominee!

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is totally out of line in demanding that Hillary Clinton be denied access to intelligence information as the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, due to the controversy over Emails, and the FBI director’s criticism of her handling of the matter, while not recommending prosecution.

If that is to occur, then Republican nominee Donald Trump, a dangerous, reckless, “loose cannon” must also be denied access, as he is unable to control his mouth, and might reveal highly sensitive information during the campaign.

It is not Paul Ryan’s place as second in line to the Presidency to intervene and get involved in this controversy, and it makes one wonder how Ryan, if he remains Speaker, and Hillary Clinton, would be able to work together and cooperate next year, if Clinton wins the White House.

Some have thought that Ryan would love to cause a coup and become President himself, as he has done a horrible job as Speaker, and this blogger was highly critical of him when he was Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate in the 2012 Presidential election.

Ryan is totally untrustworthy, and is a good reason to wish that the old Presidential Succession Act of 1886, replaced by the present one in 1947, could be revived. The cabinet members should follow the Vice President in the order of succession, not the three out of four years opposition party Speaker and President Pro Tempore of the Senate being ahead of the cabinet officers in the line of succession, in case of an emergency.

Imagine Donald Trump And Newt Gingrich As A Team: Two Combative, Egotistical Narcissists And Misogynists With Scandals!

The indications now are that Donald Trump is vetting former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia to be his Vice Presidential running mate.

This presents the possibility of the most unbelievable combination of Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates in all of American history!

Trump and Gingrich share many traits:

Narcissism
Egotism
Total Ruthlessness
Misogyny
Three marriages, two divorces, and massive amounts of infidelity and adultery
Ethical Violations on a massive scale
Both major Clinton bashers
Unapologetic about their actions and behavior
Both highly intelligent but lacking in humility
Both authors of many books

Gingrich has been out of office for 18 years, longer than any candidate for Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee in history, with exception of Trump, who has NO government or military experience at all!

Two previous Speakers of the House have gone on to be elected Vice President:

Schuyler Colfax, first Vice President under Ulysses S. Grant, 1869-1873
John Nance Garner, first Vice President under Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1933-1941

Also, present Speaker of the House Paul Ryan ran for Vice President in 2012 with Mitt Romney.

We shall soon see if Gingrich is chosen, and if he is, it means major fireworks, and great debates coming in the Presidential Election of 2016!

Particularly, imagine if Hillary Clinton ends up selecting Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as her running mate for Vice President!

Then it means two misogynists against two powerful, intelligent women–the battle of the sexes, and the best debates in all of American political history!

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

The Abandonment Of Reason By Jon Huntsman!

Anyone who has read my blog since its inception in August 2008 KNOWS that I have been an admirer of former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and recommended him as the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012, and wished he would run for the nomination in 2016.

Huntsman has great background and experience, and always has come across as a reasonable moderate conservative, someone worthy of respect, admiration, and willingness to consider in a Presidential election.

But now,this blogger is dismayed at Huntsman’s decision a few days ago to suggest that it was time to unite around Donald Trump.

If anyone in the Republican Party should refuse to back Donald Trump, it is Jon Huntsman, as there is no legitimate way to say that Trump represents the long history of the Republican Party.

So now, one has to wonder if Huntsman is hoping to be Trump’s Vice President, or an important member of his cabinet, which if so, will require this author and blogger to repudiate him totally.

If Huntsman is shown to have no principle in a party that is so lacking in decency, then indeed the whole Republican Party has lost all of its purpose of its existence!

So we can say that the Republican Party, by nominating Donald Trump, has effectively died as an historical force, and this year will be seen as the death of the Republican Party after 162 years!