Posts Tagged Presidential Election of 2012
A CNN poll indicates that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seven points ahead of Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, for the Presidential race in 2016; and with Hillary Clinton far ahead of Joe Biden, but Biden far ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field for 2016.
But one must be aware that this far out, to assume that Christie and Clinton will be the nominees, or that Ryan and Biden will be the backup nominees, is not a good bet at all.
Face the facts: Christie’s name has been in the news because of his landslide victory in New Jersey in an off year election, where his story was the major one to report. Ryan, having been the VP nominee, is well known. Hillary Clinton has been seen as a public figure constantly, most recently as Secretary of State, and Joe Biden has been a very active Vice President.
There is a very good chance that someone else will be the nominee in the GOP, while less likely for the Democrats, where Hillary and Joe seem to have a lead that is unlikely to be surpassed, particularly for Hillary over Joe.
But one only has to look at the surprises of history, including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to know that anything is possible in a Presidential race this far out from the actual election year.
The right wing Tea Party attacks on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, making clear that his victory means nothing for the Presidential campaign of 2016, is great news for Democrats, as it indicates that the Republican Party is insuring its own defeat by attacking moderate conservatives such as Chris Christie, along with Jeb Bush and Jon Huntsman.
We have seen Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and James Inhofe taking negative stands on Christie’s victory, and if any of the first five are the GOP nominee in 2016, it will make for an easy landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, or any other Democratic nominee for the White House!
And the bitter attacks of right wing Talk Show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and others only adds to the destruction of the GOP brand!
If the GOP cannot appeal to African Americans, Hispanics, women, gays and lesbians, young voters, and labor, it has absolutely no possibility of regaining the White House or control of the Senate anytime soon, and the House of Representatives is also put into play.
The rhetoric will fly fast and furious as the GOP self destructs before our eyes, and it will be a display that makes the 2012 Republican brand look more rational by comparison, although it most certainly was not that at all!
The results of the off year election yesterday in New Jersey and Virginia demonstrate a defeat for the Tea Party Movement, and the beginning of the civil war in the Republican Party for its soul!
Chris Christie became the front runner for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016, as a result of his smashing victory over Barbara Buono, the Democratic nominee, for Governor. Christie attracted Democrats, Independents, and Latinos, something no Tea Party advocate could accomplish, and he has become, clearly, the “establishment” choice for now in the Republican Party.
Meanwhile, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who appealed to the Tea Party Movement, and came out with outrageous stands on interference with sexual privacy, abortion, and global warming, and was also involved in a financial scandal that also undermined Governor Bob McDonnell, lost to Terry McAuliffe, backed by Bill and Hillary Clinton, who he had raised money for in the 1990s. Cuccinelli’s “Puritan” and anti science views caused women, in particular, to vote against him, making clear that if the GOP continues its “war on women” and their rights, they will be slaughtered in Congressional races in 2014 and the Presidential race in 2016.
Before anyone gets too excited about Christie, though, one must realize that the New Jersey Governor is a definite conservative on the issues–health care, education, labor unions, abortion—and he gained most of his support from his reaction to Superstorm Sandy a year ago, including his willingness to work with President Obama directly.
That will be his Achilles heel, however, in GOP primaries and caucuses, as he competes against right wingers such as Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, and there is no guarantee that Christie will survive bruising, bloody primary and caucus fights.
But even if, somehow, he does make it through to the nomination, do not forget that Chris Christie has a short fuse; is highly temperamental when he does not like what one is saying, or opposes him; is still what this author said in the past (a bully); a man who could cause war with his bluntness, as he lacks all diplomacy and tact; and there are hints of corruption and inappropriate actions in his past record, and even some supposed connections to the Mafia.
One can be sure that ALL leads will be followed, and that Christie, who caused “red flags’ for Mitt Romney, making the 2012 GOP nominee pass Christie by for Vice President, will be fully vetted, and it could destroy any hopes he has for the Presidency.
To believe that Chris Christie will be the next President still means one has to be delusional. By comparison, he might be seen as “better” than Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Ryan and others, but ONLY by comparison, nothing more than that!
Conservatives and Republicans have viciously opposed ObamaCare, not giving a damn about whether tens of millions of Americans have health care coverage, even though that makes health care more expensive for taxpayers when these people go to emergency rooms, or else these people die, which they seem not to care about!
But, having failed to prevent ObamaCare, and complaining about its difficult roll out, as if they wanted it to succeed, now they are complaining that millions of people with independent coverage, who have crappy health care contracts, are being forced to get new coverage that covers more areas, has lower costs, better conditions, and will prevent people from losing coverage, or be told that preexisting conditions are not covered!
Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Fox News Channel right wing talk show host Sean Hannity lead a whole group of charlatans, who are working to mislead consumers, and make ObamaCare an issue that they can exploit for political gain, while working to convince people that they are being exploited, rather than the truth that they are being given a chance for FAR BETTER health care coverage!
These right wingers do not know how to tell the truth, because if they do, they know the conservative movement will recede into the dustbin of history, as not caring about the health care needs of the American people!
Remember that the basis of ObamaCare is both the basis of the Heritage Foundation plan for health care of 1993 and of RomneyCare in 2006 in Massachusetts, but neither source will dare admit the truth, and expect Mitt Romney to say the same this Sunday on Meet the Press, the reason why he had no chance to win the Presidency in 2012! Romney could not tell the truth if he tried, and stands out as the biggest liar of any Presidential candidate in modern history!
On this day in 1859, 154 years ago, radical abolitionist John Brown led a raid on the military arsenal at Harpers Ferry, Virginia (today in West Virginia), killing about 60 people in an an attempt to begin a racial war to end slavery.
While Brown had a great purpose in mind, to end slavery, his tactics were reprehensible, but started the movement toward civil war and the breakup of the Union.
Today, 154 years later, America faces an economic brink, as those who wish to change the course of our economic system, including the destruction of ObamaCare, are about to put us into an economic collapse that will reverberate throughout America and the world at large, and could also incite bloodshed and conflict that might never stop, as citizens turn against each other, and right wing elements plot to overthrow the government, and force President Obama out of office!
We are in a time more dangerous than any since September 11, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, and it is self induced by anarchists on the right who refuse to accept the results of legislation passed legally by both houses of Congress, approved by the Supreme Court, and reaffirmed by the Presidential Election Of 2012.
It is time for responsible, sane heads in government to push back, and refuse to allow reckless, irresponsible, ignorant lunatics to hijack our government, and its good name in terms of economic responsibility. This is a day to pray for strong leadership in Congress and the White House! It is time for the Republican Party to take back control from its Tea Party lunatics!
This past weekend, the Iowa Democratic Party held its Annual Steak Fry celebration, hosted by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, bringing together two Democratic stars–one of experience and one of youth.
Vice President Joe Biden, a colleague and friend of Senator Harkin for the past thirty years, was there to remind people that he and Barack Obama had worked every day in the White House to advance the middle class, which they have done an excellent job on, considering the terrible economic collapse occurring just five years ago in mid September.
There is no question of Biden’s great credentials for the Presidency, although he will have to deal with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and other Democrats of a younger generation, with at least one likely to join the fray for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination to succeed Obama.
So the youth of the party was represented by San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who is 39 today, and runs the seventh largest city in America. Castro made a very good impression at the Democratic National Convention in 2012, reminding many of Barack Obama’s fantastic performance at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, which catapulted the Illinois Senator into the 2008 Presidential race and the White House!
Castro would be 42 in 2016, and would bring a Latino into the Presidential race, a sign of the future growth of the United States. He is very charismatic, handsome, and well spoken, but the question is whether he would challenge both Biden and Clinton if they were to run.
Certainly, Biden and Castro got along famously, but they represent a difference of 32 years, nearly two generations of leadership apart, at ages 42 and 74 in 2016.
Castro made clear that the Democratic Party belief in helping those in need had made a difference in his life plan, as well as that of his identical twin brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro.
Without question, Castro would be a good choice if youth and promise matter, but Biden has the edge on experience and knowledge and connections.
In any case, either is far better than any Republican considered likely to enter the Presidential race in 2016!
Secretary of State John Kerry “cleaned the clock” of Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in yesterday’s hearing on Syria in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggesting that Paul attend secret briefings and become “informed” about the Syrian matter, rather than spout isolationist propaganda.
Anyone watching had to be impressed by Kerry, and appalled by the ignorance and pure stupidity of Rand Paul, who has this vision of being our President!
The fact is that Rand Paul would face vehement opposition within the GOP if he runs for President, and if he, somehow, became the nominee, with his bankrupt libertarian ideology, he would lose in a massive landslide, which might actually be the only way to wipe out of national politics the delusional, crazy ideas not only of Rand Paul, but also of the “godmother” or libertarianism, Ayn Rand, who is also “loved” by Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate in 2012.
As the Presidential race begins, and it has started already, like it or not, it is clear that Hillary Clinton, who will be 69 in 2016, and Joe Biden, who will be 74 in 2016, are the frontrunners, and that Hillary is using up most of the oxygen in the room, way ahead of Biden in polls, with other potential Democratic candidates in single digits.
But despite the confidence and optimism about Hillary and even Joe as a backup, there is a growing case for the argument that the Democratic Party should bypass both Hillary and Joe, no matter how much one may love or admire either of them, and go for a new generation of Democrats, as was done in 1960 with John F. Kennedy, in 1976 with Jimmy Carter, in 1992 with Bill Clinton, and 2008 with Barack Obama!
All of these successful Democratic Presidential winners were young–43, 52, 46, and 47 respectively at the time of the inauguration. All were younger than their GOP opponents, although Richard Nixon was only four years older, but represented a continuation of Dwight D. Eisenhower, our oldest President at the time when he retired in 1961!
But Jimmy Carter was eleven years younger than Gerald Ford; Bill Clinton 22 years younger than George H. W. Bush; and Barack Obama 25 years younger than John McCain!
The fact is ONLY three Presidents were inaugurated at age 65 or older—William Henry Harrison at age 68 and dying a month later; James Buchanan at age 65 but only 50 days short of age 66, and rated by many historians the worst President in American history; and Ronald Reagan, inaugurated at just weeks before his 70th and 74th birthday, and judged by many to have deteriorated mentally, with early Alzheimers in his second term of office!
And we have seen Bob Dole defeated at age 73 in 1996; John McCain defeated at age 72 in 2008; and Mitt Romney, defeated at age 65 inn 2012, but also about 50 days short of age 66 if he had been inaugurated, the same exact age as Buchanan was when he won in 1856!
Meanwhile, the Republican Party future is clearly in the hands of young politicians, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and others, with these candidates being mostly in their 40s and 50s, and all younger than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden!
Historically, in most elections, the younger candidate wins, and the party of the President usually does not do well if it utilizes someone connected with the administration leaving office, no matter what level of popularity reigns when that President leaves office, as witness:
Richard Nixon lost after Eisenhower
Hubert Humphrey lost after Lyndon B. Johnson
Gerald Ford lost after Richard Nixon
Walter Mondale lost after Jimmy Carter
Al Gore lost after Bill Clinton
If Hilary Clinton runs, she represents Obama’s foreign policy record, for good or for bad, and also brings back the good and the bad of the Presidency of her husband, Bill Clinton.
If Joe Biden runs, he represents what happens to a Vice President under a President, that the negatives of that President harm the Vice President, as with Nixon, Humphrey, Ford, Mondale, and Gore.
Only George H. W, Bush was able to overcome this hex, and succeed Ronald Reagan in 1988, although then losing reelection in 1992, the greatest percentage loss of any President in American history, except William Howard Taft in 1912!
It is reality that Democrats will be heavily favored in the Electoral College in 2016, no matter who runs, but it would be easier for a “New”, younger Democrat to be the Presidential nominee, such as Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, KIrsten Gilllibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Mark Warner, John Hickenlooper, or Elizabeth Warren, all of whom are much younger than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with the exception of Warren, who would be 67 in 2016, which makes her a less ideal candidate based upon age!
It is important for Democrats to think carefully before they decide for a continuation of the Obama Presidency through Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, as nominating someone younger and separated from the Obama Administration would be preferable, and easier for the grueling campaign ahead!
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, the bull in the China shop in the Republican Party, who has grand ambitions to be President of the United States, has taken quick action to trash his Canadian heritage, having been born in Calgary, Alberta, Canada in December 1970.
While technically a citizen of both Canada and the US, due to his mother’s American citizenship, Cruz has now declared that he has no interest in remaining a dual citizen, because he knows that could cause him grief as he seeks to take over the Republican Party. He has already made enemies in the GOP establishment with his vicious attacks on other Republican Senators, as well as the opposition Democrats, the news media, and higher education, including his Harvard Law School background, calling the faculty there a bunch of Marxists, reminding us of Senator Joseph McCarthy, who he, ironically, greatly resembles in appearance, demeanor, and behavior!
Cruz represents the calling card of Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and other malcontents,who wants to take the Republican Party to the extreme far Right, and will take no prisoners!
It is clear by his action on his Canadian citizenship that Cruz is running for President without announcing it this early, and that he will do anything and everything to destroy any GOP opponent, and at this point, his key rival seems to be Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the son of former Congressman Ron Paul, who inherits the allegiance of many young people who see the father as a god like figure with his libertarian beliefs.
Both Paul and Cruz have the allegiance of the Tea Party Movement, but Cruz cannot be called a libertarian, and the holy war that will ensue between the two will, at this point, likely favor Cruz over Paul.
So at this point, it seems a good bet to believe that Cruz will overcome Paul and also, his fellow Cuban, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and that he will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2016, at age 45.
His candidacy will draw a lot of attention and controversy, and Cruz will not care how many enemies he makes on his road to being the opponent of Hillary Clinton, his most likely opponent, or any other Democrat who might emerge, including Joe Biden.
And when one looks at the Electoral College math, it is clear that Ted Cruz is likely to be the GOP Presidential nominee, but his chances of becoming our 45th President are next to zero, and that Clinton, Biden, or whoever the Democratic nominee in 2016 is, will win a landslide victory, greater in electoral votes than Barack Obama in 2012!
And part of that great Democratic victory in 2016 will likely include Texas, as the state is moving toward “Blue” status, and it is ironic that Cruz, easily elected in Texas in 2012, will help create the Democratic majority by his personality, confrontational attitude, and refusal to understand that if one insults Mexican Americans, woman, African Americans, labor supporters, environmentalists, and gays, there is no way that his party can ever win back the White House!
So after a smashing defeat, Cruz will be history as a loser, and the GOP will finally, if it has any common sense, return to the moderate mainstream center, or else it will finally be in the dustbins of history after 2016!