John McCain

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Donald Trump Comparing Impeachment Probe To Lynching Is Totally Disgraceful And Reprehensible!

Donald Trump has the gall to compare the impeachment probe going on in the House of Representatives to a lynching, demonstrating his total lack of the history of lynching, and his lack of concern for the racism that he continues to display incessantly!

Lynching went on for a century after the Civil War and reached its peak in the post World War I years, with thousands of African Americans, and some Hispanics, Jews, and Catholics also being tortured and murdered and set on fire in a brutal fashion, that was long covered up.

But now there is a Lynching Museum in Montgomery, Alabama, called the National Memorial for Peace and Justice and the Legacy Museum, and there are other Civil Rights Museums that demonstrate through horrible photographs and contemporary accounts the obscene abuse and lack of concern for human life in the American South and much of the Midwest and even California, as well, where African Americans were seen as less than human.

The photos are hard to look at, and the realization that children and large crowds often witnessed these miscarriages of justice, cheered it on, and took human flesh as souvenirs of the “sporting event” they had just participated in or lost all sense of morality, ethics and religiosity by not caring about the suffering of thousands of mostly men, but also some women.

Donald Trump comes across more every day as a totally obscene, disgraceful excuse for a human being, who has no concern about the human suffering that goes on around him in America and in the world at large.

If there was ever a President as deserving of impeachment, conviction, and imprisonment for the crimes he has conducted or endorsed by his incendiary, reckless rhetoric, it is Donald Trump, as no one else, not even Richard Nixon was anywhere near as evil as the 45th President of the United States!

And for Senator Lindsey Graham to defend Trump’s comment is beyond belief, and John McCain would be furious at his former friend for defending Trump!

The Disgraceful Sycophants For Donald Trump: Rudy Giuliani, Stephen Miller, Kevin McCarthy, Jim Jordan, Lindsey Graham, And More

History will record in a condemnatory way the long list of disgraceful sycophants who have legitimized Donald Trump’s abuse of power and obstruction of justice.

The leading sycophants include:

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has gone totally off the rails, and seems clearly to have lost all morality and ethics, amidst signs of dementia.

Stephen Miller, the 34 year old senior adviser for Trump, who has demonstrated his total lack of decency, compassion, and empathy, and is perceived by some as the new modern young Roy Cohn of the Joseph McCarthy era, a Jewish man who shows totally despicable and indefensible behavior, including racism and nativism to the extreme.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, who makes Paul Ryan and John Boehner both seem far less objectionable than they actually were, and a total liar and phony who disgraces the Republican Party in the lower chamber.

Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan, a truly obnoxious, nasty and arrogant Tea Party activist who spews forth poisonous propaganda on a regular basis.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who thought Bill Clinton should be impeached, but now sees no grounds for Donald Trump to be impeached. His former friend, the late John McCain, would be sorely disappointed with his behavior defending Trump,

The list is much more than these five, and now includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Attorney General William Barr, both of whom, by their lies and deception and unwillingness to cooperate in the impeachment investigation of Donald Trump, could face legal action and impeachment on their own.

Never has there been so many people willing to sacrifice their careers and reputations to defend a President who is the most unethical, immoral, and cruel person we have ever had in the White House, who now has the gall to say he will never leave the Presidency, implying the end of the 22nd Amendment and democratic elections in the future, as if he is an Emperor or King,

The threat of civil war enunciated by religious right wing fanatics must not prevent the rule of law, and the willingness, if need be, to remove Donald Trump forcibly from the Oval Office in chains and handcuffs if need be, to uphold the Constitution of the United States!

Is It Time For A New Generation Of Leadership For The Democrats?

After watching both Democratic Presidential debates this week, one has to ask the question:

It is time for a new generation of leadership for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party, historically, has regularly gone for younger candidates for President than the Republicans.

Witness Franklin D. Roosevelt, age 51; Adlai Stevenson, age 52; John F. Kennedy, age 43; Lyndon B. Johnson full term, age 56; Hubert Humphrey, age 57; George McGovern, age 50; Jimmy Carter, age 52; Walter Mondale, age 56; Michael Dukakis, age 56; Bill Clinton, age 46; Al Gore, age 52; Barack Obama, age 47.

Compare this to Dwight D. Eisenhower, age 62; Gerald Ford, 1976, age 63; Ronald Reagan, age 69; George H W Bush, age 64; Bob Dole, age 73; John McCain, age 72; Mitt Romney, age 65; Donald Trump, age 70.

So nominating Bernie Sanders, age 79; Joe Biden, age 78; or Elizabeth Warren, age 71—all of whom would be the oldest first term nominated Presidential candidate—might be the wrong way to go!

Might it NOT be better to nominate, at their ages at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020?

Pete Buttigieg age 39

Tulsi Gabbard age 39

Eric Swalwell age 40

Julian Castro age 46

Beto O’Rourke age 48

Cory Booker age 51

Steve Bullock age 54

Kirsten Gillibrand age 54

Kamala Harris age 56

Amy Klobuchar age 60

Reality: Candidates Ahead In Public Opinion Polls In Third Year Of Presidential Term Never Are The Nominees For President

Public opinion polls have been notoriously inaccurate in the third year of a Presidential term in who would be the Presidential nominees of major parties the following year.

In 2003, Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but John Kerry ended up as the nominee in 2004.

In 2007, New York Senator Hillary Clinton was the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but Barack Obama ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2007, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but John McCain ended up as the nominee in 2008.

In 2011, Herman Cain was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Mitt Romney ended up as the nominee in 2012.

In 2015, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, but Donald Trump ended up as the nominee in 2016.

Beyond these examples, in the third year of many Presidential terms, who could have known that the next President would be someone not seriously considered at that time to have a chance to be elected.

Witness John F. Kennedy in 1959; Richard Nixon in 1967; Jimmy Carter in 1975; Ronald Reagan in 1979; Bill Clinton in 1991; Barack Obama in 2007; and Donald Trump in 2015.

Also add the following: Abraham Lincoln in 1859; Woodrow Wilson in 1911; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1931; and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1951.

So, to assume that Joe Biden, currently ahead in all polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, will be the nominee is quite a gamble, based upon history.

Average Age Of Presidents Is 55: Should Democrats Choose A Younger Nominee?

The Democratic Party faces a quandary: Should they choose a younger nominee as more likely to attract younger voters?

Three times in the past half century, the Democrats picked a much younger nominee than the Republicans:

1976 Jimmy Carter 11 years younger than Gerald Ford

1992 Bill Clinton 22 years younger than George H. W. Bush

2008 Barack Obama 25 years younger than John McCain

All three of those Republicans were far less provocative and controversial than is Donald Trump.

Is nominating someone (Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden) who is older than Donald Trump a wise choice?

Is nominating someone only a few years younger (Elizabeth Warren, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper) a wise choice?

Or would it be far better to nominate someone much younger than Trump to attract younger voters, particularly millennials, someone in their 50s or 40s as a multitude of potential nominees are (ranging from Amy Klobuchar at age 60 down to Pete Buttigieg at age 39)–and including women, minorities, and a gay man to move the nation forward in the 21st century, with a greater guarantee that they will live out their one or two terms in the White House?

This is what Democrats in upcoming caucuses and primaries next year have to come to grips with, with no easy answer as to what should occur!

Donald Trump Does The Unforgivable: Attacks Joe Biden And Barack Obama On Foreign Soil, And Lies About The Obama-Biden Economic Record

Donald Trump did the unforgivable by attacking former Vice President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama on foreign soil, while in Japan this past weekend.

It is a known rule that no President deals with domestic politics while overseas, and no President embarrasses his host by putting them on the spot as he criticizes political rivals.

But this is Donald Trump, who does not believe in any rules, regulations, or common decency.

Calling Biden a low IQ individual, agreeing with totalitarian dictator Kim Jong Un of North Korea, and claiming that both Obama and Biden presided over a disastrous administration in every way, including the economy, is the continuation of an attack on opponents that began with John McCain. It has now included everyone imaginable, and not just individuals that are well known, but also victims as in Puerto Rico after the hurricane, and groups of vulnerable people, such as refugees, gays and lesbians, transgender people, disabled people, and so many more.

The massive lie about Obama, Biden, and the economy is beyond belief, when the facts are that Obama presided over the greatest economic recovery in American history, greater than Franklin D. Roosevelt before World War II resolved the Great Depression.

From 10 percent unemployment, and the worst economic conditions in 70 years in 2009, inheriting the Great Recession under George W. Bush, to Obama and Biden leaving office in January 2017 with unemployment under 5 percent, we have now seen more than eight years of constant economic growth, an all time record. The continuation of economic growth under Donald Trump would have continued if Hillary Clinton was in the White House.

The stock market also recovered more than 250 percent from what it was when Obama-Biden came in during 2009 until the beginning of 2017. And all this was done without being engaged in a major war.

Trump can lie, and his minions can believe his use of the Big Lie technique of Adolf Hitler, but “the truth shall set us free”, and history will record Barack Obama and Joe Biden for their economic accomplishments.

Senator Lindsey Graham, A Despicable Turncoat Against The Principles Of His Friend, John McCain!

The most shocking and surprising turn of events in the US Senate is that South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has become a despicable turncoat against the principles of his friend, the late Arizona Senator John McCain.

There were no too better friends in the Senate than Graham and McCain, and both were condemnatory of Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential campaign, including when Trump said McCain was not a war hero for being captured and tortured for over five years in the Vietnam War.

Graham said extremely critical points against Trump, and yet now, he has transformed totally to be a Trump lackey, including even when Trump still brings up McCain’s name in a critical manner.

Graham sees no obstruction of justice, abuse of power, violation of the Emoluments Clause, or Russian collusion, despite ample evidence of such impeachable crimes.

This is precisely the opposite of 20 years ago, when Graham as a House member, led the charge to impeach Bill Clinton on charges far less egregious than Trump has committed.

Graham was always a bit of a character, but now he has lost all credibility and legitimacy. Hopefully, he can be defeated for his Senate seat in 2020.

Is It Essential To Have A Woman On The Democratic Ticket In 2020, The Centennial Of The 19th Amendment? If So, Amy Klobuchar Is The Right Choice!

The question arises whether it is essential to have a woman on the Democratic Presidential ticket in 2020, the Centennial of the 19th Amendment.

The experience with women on the national ticket is not a good one. Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro of New York ran with Democratic Presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984, and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska ran with Republican Presidential nominee John McCain in 2008.

Having said that, the potential women who could be on the national ticket are far superior to Ferraro and Palin.

Many observers have the feeling that no woman could engage in adequate verbal combat with Donald Trump on a debate stage.

But what about engaging in debate with Vice President Mike Pence? That seems much more promising.

The issue is which woman would be seen as best to debate, in the sense of coming across as even tempered, calm, rational, and effective in any debate with a male opponent, as neither Ferraro nor Palin came across well when debating George H. W. Bush in 1984 in the case of Ferraro, or Joe Biden in 2008 in the case of Palin.

The gut feeling this blogger and scholar has is that Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar would probably be most effective in a debate. She is not seen by the population as emotional, shrill, or as someone who would be perceived as overly feminist in her views. Understand that this whole issue is not a problem with the author, but he is trying to perceive how white working class males would judge a woman candidate.

Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand would all have “problems” that would make them negatively seen by the group which helped to elect Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. This is reality, not what the author wishes was so, but we cannot deny the issue of misogyny.

Klobuchar would make a great Vice Presidential running mate, from the Midwest, and yet with a tradition inherited from Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone, of Democratic Farmer Labor commitment that made Minnesota one of the most advanced states politically in the last half of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The odds of her being the Presidential nominee seem highly unlikely at this point, but she would be an excellent choice to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency with an older man as President, such as Joe Biden.