Generation Z 1996-2012

Some Reasons Why Donald Trump And Republicans Will Lose in 2024

admin 27 Comments

Despite conflicting public opinion polls, there are many reasons to believe why Donald Trump and the Republican Party are on the road to defeat in 2024!

Among them are the following:

If one uses Ronald Reagan’s argument in 1980, “Are you better off than you were years ago?”, and use it in reverse, most certainly, economically, the nation is far better than it was in 2020, by any economic statistic! The stock market is booming; unemployment is at a 50 year low; inflation is coming down; and more jobs have been created than under any modern President in a four year term!

Also, Donald Trump brags about ending Roe V Wade, and this ending of abortion rights has become a major motivator among the vast majority of women and the men who love them, and will motivate many voters to be sure to vote and get others to vote!

Donald Trump also tells Republicans to reject the strongest immigration bill in a generation, and the crisis on the border is worse, as a result, and it will reverberate on Republicans in the Fall. With various conservative groups backing the legislation, it can be used as a weapon against Trump in the upcoming election, and harm the party chances in Congress!

The Republican House of Representatives has been a disaster, leading to some Republicans quitting early, not wishing to hang around, and leaving the Republicans with just one vote more than a majority, subject to change at any time, if anyone in their slim majority resigns, dies, or is in the hospital for an extended period. And Speaker Mike Johnson is in danger of being the second Speaker to be removed in the same Congress. So the Democrats have a great issue as they get ready for the election, which should guarantee a Democratic majority in that chamber in the upcoming 119th Congress of 2025-2027!

Donald Trump being indicted on 91 counts in four cases is not going to help promote loyalty of Republicans, as already, there are indications that a substantial number did not want him to run, and instead supported Nikki Haley. The idea that independents or Democrats will vote for Trump is not realistic, and already, he has a record of never winning the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020!

With so many former Trump Administration officials refusing to support Trump this time around, since they see how dangerous he is on foreign policy, and his plans for a dictatorship, this will also strengthen the case for Joe Biden as a center of stability and democracy!

And with Trump saying the January 6 Insurrectionists are “hostages” that he would free from prison is not a way to win support or strengthen Republican prospects!

With all these factors, Democrats have the advantage, but have to be concerned about keeping support of African Americans, Hispanic-Latino Americans, Asian Americans, Arab-Muslim Americans, Jewish Americans, and the younger Generation Z first time voters.

So there is plenty of work still ahead!

Voting Patterns For Presidential Election Of 2024 Hard To Predict

admin 1 Comment

Indications are that the Democratic Party has been gaining in suburban areas among well educated voters with a college education and more in recent years, a massive change from long term trends that such voters were usually voting Republican.

At the same time, rural voters, often less educated, are becoming much more oriented toward Republicans than they have been, leaving the role of racial minorities as being crucial in national elections.

The Democrats have seen alienation by Latinos and African Americans from the very high percentages that usually vote for them, and Asian Americans are also unpredictable in their voting patterns.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has become an issue that is causing division among racial minorities, including the growing influence of Muslim Americans and Arab Americans, as well.

Also, Jewish Americans, usually two thirds Democrats, are in play for this upcoming election.

At the same time, the abortion issue is gravitating more women toward the Democrats than is usually the case.

And the growing number of young voters, particularly Generation Z, is also a factor hard to predict the extent of their participation and where it will go.

So there are so many strands of voters competed for by both Democrats and Republicans, making predictions on the upcoming Presidential Election of 2024 even more confusing and hard to project.

Factors Favoring Democrats In 2024 Presidential Election

Ronald Leave a comment

The Democratic Party has several advantages going into the Presidential Election campaign of 2024.

Among them are:

Women in large percentages are outraged by the Supreme Court ending legal abortion protections on the federal level, and the actions by Republican state legislatures to prevent abortion rights further should favor Democrats in 2024, state and national levels.

African Americans are likely to continue to support Democrats with the new attack on “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion”, including the words and actions of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but also the broad attack on civil rights by Republicans at all levels.

Young people, particularly those of Generation Z, born from 1997 onward, are strongly moving toward the Democrats.

College educated people are becoming more strongly Democratic across the nation.

Gays, lesbians, and transgender Americans clearly see the Republican attack on their basic civil rights as a dire threat.

Suburban voters have become more Democratic in recent elections, and are likely to continue in that vein.

Religion has declined rapidly, which also helps promote Democrats.

Supreme Court decisions have been highly unpopular, and helped to shift many voters toward Democrats.

The continuing danger of Donald Trump has motivated many voters to turn to the Democrats.

Joe Biden’s two and a half year record, arguably the best in domestic affairs since Lyndon B. Johnson, boosts his candidacy, including the economy which has been better under Biden than any earlier President at this point, and with the one problem, inflation, rapidly declining, but with unemployment at a more than 50 year low.

The biggest problem is the uncertainty of the Hispanic-Latino vote, particularly among Cuban Americans, and those from Nicaragua, and Venezuela heritage, but even among Mexican Americans who have become more skeptical about Democrats.

Also, elderly Americans are less Democratic than they have traditionally been, and the Trump support is about one third of the electorate.

The less educated whites are declining rapidly, but are still strong supporters of Republicans, because of racist tendencies.

So the election will be highly contestable, and some experts say the election will come down to four states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin!

Generation Z (1996-2012) Turning “Blue” On Abortion, Guns, Voting Rights!

Ronald Leave a comment

Generation Z (1996-2012) is rapidly turning “Blue” on the major controversies that divide America’s political parties.

This is heartening news for the Democratic Party, as young people in large percentages support abortion rights, whether they are women and girls or their male supporters. This is the generation most impacted by courts and politicians attempting to control their reproductive rights!

Also, young people recognize that the gun culture in America worships the crazy need to allow semi automatic firearms to go unregulated while thousands upon thousands of young people become cannon fodder in a nation that believes every fetus must be born, but then you are on your own!

Also, young people are being prevented from voting when they go away to colleges and universities in many “Red” states, because it is realized that they tend to be more “liberal” by being exposed to varying ideas outside of their family’s views, if they come from a household with little education beyond high school.

The more educated one is, the more likely they will tend to be Democrats, because they realize that life is more than just making money, but also to have compassion, empathy, decency, dignity, and care about human rights for more than just themselves!

So in the midst of difficult, stressful times, the future seems bright for Democrats and for “liberal” and “progressive” values, as the Republicans are alienating millions upon millions nationally who value women’s rights, gun protections, and voting rights!

First Generation Z Member Of Congress Maxwell Frost Wins, While Karoline Leavitt And Bo Hines Lose!

Ronald Leave a comment

The new 118th Congress will have one Generation Z (born in January 1997) House member, Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost, elected to represent the Orlando, Florida area at age 25.

At the same time, two others born in the 1990s–Republicans Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire (technically not eligible as born in August 1998, so not eligible for service until August 2023) and Bo Hines in North Carolina (born in 1995)–lost their bids.

Frost is the second person born in the 1990s (generally known as Generation Z if born in 1996 or later) to serve in the Congress, with one term Republican Congressman Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina (born in 1995), the only other person, defeated after one term in the primary, having caused great controversy and conflict as his legacy!

Fascinating Electoral Map Of Americans 18-40 Shows Bright Future For Democrats, Gloom For Republicans!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Atlantic Magazine has just published an electoral map based solely on American expected voters ages 18-40, known as Millennials (born 1980-1996) and Generation Z (1997-2012) with those born from 1997-2002 able to vote in the Presidential Election of 2020!

It is astounding in detail, as if it pans out and is true, it means a bright future for Democrats, and gloom for Republicans!

According to this electoral map, Joe Biden has 295 electoral votes locked up among those under 40; and 63 more likely; and 70 less likely but favored, for a grand total of 428 electoral votes!

Donald Trump has 49 electoral votes insured, with 44 other electoral votes highly likely, and 17 electoral votes undecided, so it would be a grand total of 110 electoral votes, or 93 insured, with Utah and Indiana questionable.

That last fact is shocking, as one would think Utah would be insured Republican, and Indiana as well, particularly with Vice President Mike Pence being from the Hoosier State.

The Biden states have dark blue for such states as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all four states having gone for Trump in 2016.

Interestingly, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Arizona are all medium blue, making them likely strongly Democratic by lesser amounts now and in the future, and all Trump states in 2016. Additionally, Virginia, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 is also medium blue.

Georgia, Texas, Montana, and imagine this, Alaska are all light blue, a good sign for the future as well! But so is Missouri, which few see as going back to the Democrats, after having lost their status as a “reliable” state to be with the winner, starting in 2008 and continuing through 2016. As much as the first two states listed are seen as long shots, the last three are even more so, in theory!

Looking at the Trump states, 15 in total, we have West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma as strongest, while South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, North Dakota, Kansas, Wyoming and Idaho are weaker in support among young people.

So, in conclusion, 33 states for Biden, 15 for Trump, and 2 probably Trump but not certain, mirroring what seems to make sense for the national election, with the only real surprises being Alaska and Missouri, and possibly Indiana and Utah, in the estimate of this scholar and blogger!