We are now a little more than six and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2012.
The latest estimates on the Electoral College, which will decide who takes the Oath of Office as President of the United States on Sunday, January 20, 2013, make it clear that President Obama has a clear edge to be re-elected.
According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have solid leads in 14 states and the District of Columbia, leading in five New England states, four Mid Atlantic states and the District of Columbia, plus Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii, for a total of 186 electoral votes.
Obama also leads in four “swing states” in the crucial area of the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), along with Pennsylvania, with a total of 56 electoral votes.
So when you add these 18 states and the District of Columbia, it adds up to 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the number needed to win the election.
So to believe that Obama will not gain 28 electoral votes as a minimum out of a grand total of 296 remaining electoral votes requires true delusion by those who predict a Mitt Romney and Republican victory!
Nine states are said to be “Up For Grabs”, all “swing states”, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, for a grand total of 105 electoral votes
So if Obama wins Florida, he has won the election. If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he has won the election. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, he needs only ONE more vote to be elected, which could come about from New Hampshire’s 4, New Mexico’s 5, Nevada’s 6, or Iowa’s 6.
Obama will probably not win all of the “swing states”, but to imagine he will lose all of them, or enough of them to lose the election, is a figment of a person’s imagination!
Were Obama to win all nine of these states making for a total of 27 states plus the District of Columbia, he would have 347 electoral votes.
Three states lean Republican, but could go to Obama theoretically if everything worked out in an ideal fashion–Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Indiana went to Obama in 2008, while Missouri went to John McCain by fewer than 5,000 votes. Arizona could go to Obama because of the rapidly rising Hispanic-Latino vote in a state which has promoted discriminatory laws against them. These three states have 32 electoral votes among them. Were everything to break right, it would allow Obama a grand total of 379 electoral votes and 30 states and the District of Columbia.
The other twenty states are solidly Republican, but with the possible exception of Georgia, with its growing number of Hispanics and Latinos Were the unbelievable but possible win by Obama in Georgia, it would mean 16 more electoral votes and a final grand total of 395 electoral votes in 31 states and the District of Columbia!
One might ask why Obama could end up with fewer electoral votes than 2008, if winning all of the states he won then. The answer is that states that are anti Obama have more electoral votes than they did, under reapportionment that goes into effect once a decade. These states include South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Utah.
Meanwhile, states which went for Obama in 2008 lost seats–New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.
Three states that went for Obama in 2008 gained seats–Florida, Nevada and Washington, while two states which went for McCain in 2008 lost seats–Louisiana and Missouri.
So this is the state of affairs regarding the Presidential Election of 2012 with a little over 200 days left in the Presidential campaign!