Vice Presidency

Paul Ryan Calls For Military Pension Cuts: Unbelievable!

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Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012, seemed to be on the road to understanding what compromise was all about, when he made a budget deal with Senator Patty Murray of Washington, a sign of progress against the Tea Party Movement, which opposed it in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, but was unable to stop it.

But no sooner than Ryan doing something sensible, now he is saying that military pensions must be cut, rather than say that the defense industries need to take cuts in government buying of unnecessary weapons, all highly inflated, as the defense industries are constantly getting billions of dollars that could be called “waste, fraud and abuse”, but have the Republicans in Congress In their “hip pocket.”

So veterans who have sacrificed for the nation now must expect benefit cuts, an outrageous, disgraceful concept!

This must be bitterly opposed by all progressives, who appreciate the labors and sacrifices of our veterans, of any period in our history, from World War II to Korea to Vietnam to the Persian Gulf War to Iraq and Afghanistan!

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

The Democratic Presidential Race Has Begun With Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer Comments!

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Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has fired the first shots of the Democratic Presidential race, making us realize that the concept that, somehow, Hillary Clinton would win the nomination without challenge, and by default, is a dream that is not going to happen.

Schweitzer, who served two successful terms as Governor of the fourth largest state in land area, but eighth smallest in population, gained a reputation as a western populist, and has been critical of “corporatists”, which in his mind include Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who are too cozy with Wall Street, and have not promoted the idea of pursuing indictment of Wall Street leaders for the Great Recession of 2008.

This is one issue on which many liberals and progressives have had trouble with President Obama, who relied on Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner and other icons of Wall Street, in making his economic policies.

So the left of the Democratic Party, including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, and Schweitzer, among others, have been critical, and while Warren has said she is not running for President, and Sanders says only that he is considering it, Schweitzer has been out front in criticism on economic matters.

Additionally, Schweitzer has thrown a shot across the bow at Hillary Clinton and other US Senators who supported the Iraq War intervention, which he made clear he thought was a major mistake.

So without formally announcing, Schweitzer has hinted strongly that he will enter the race, if nothing else than for the reason that, even assuming Hillary has the edge and might be the nominee of the Democratic Party, that competition is good, and that it would make Clinton a better candidate, than one who is treated with kid gloves and is not ready to fight for the nomination and the Presidency in full combat gear.

Right now, however, the odds that Schweitzer, or anyone else, other than maybe Vice President Joe Biden, can stop Hillary Clinton from being the nominee of the Democratic Party, is highly speculative, but it makes the upcoming primaries and caucuses two years from now a lot more interesting and exciting than it might have been.

So, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, welcome to the fray!

CNN Poll: Christie Ahead Of Paul Ryan For GOP; Clinton And Biden For Democrats

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A CNN poll indicates that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seven points ahead of Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, for the Presidential race in 2016; and with Hillary Clinton far ahead of Joe Biden, but Biden far ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field for 2016.

But one must be aware that this far out, to assume that Christie and Clinton will be the nominees, or that Ryan and Biden will be the backup nominees, is not a good bet at all.

Face the facts: Christie’s name has been in the news because of his landslide victory in New Jersey in an off year election, where his story was the major one to report. Ryan, having been the VP nominee, is well known. Hillary Clinton has been seen as a public figure constantly, most recently as Secretary of State, and Joe Biden has been a very active Vice President.

There is a very good chance that someone else will be the nominee in the GOP, while less likely for the Democrats, where Hillary and Joe seem to have a lead that is unlikely to be surpassed, particularly for Hillary over Joe.

But one only has to look at the surprises of history, including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to know that anything is possible in a Presidential race this far out from the actual election year.

Disllusionment With Washington Opens Up Possibility Of State Governors Again Having Advantage For Presidential Race!

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Much of the time in American history, there has been disillusionment with the Washington DC establishment, and a desire to have an “outsider” being our President.

Only three Presidents of the past century were elected directly from the Senate—Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama—while a total of six Governors or former Governors were elected to the Presidency—Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush. Additionally, former Governors who were Vice President first, and succeeded during the term—Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge–were also elected to a full term.

So the present anger at Washington and everything it represents opens up new opportunities for sitting or former Governors in both parties, such as follows:

Democrats—Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts

Republicans-Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jeb Bush of Florida, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Susana Martinez of New Mexico

Having said this, one still has to wonder if the Democratic Governors can overcome Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.

And one has to wonder if the Republican Governors can overcome Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and others.

Presidents Replacing Their Vice Presidents: Not Very Productive

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The new book, DOUBLE DOWN: GAME CHANGE 2012, states that Barack Obama’s campaign seriously considered dumping Vice President Joe Biden for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a rumor long believed and promoted.

Would such a change have brought about a different election result? Hardly so, and Obama came to realize that his Vice President was an asset, and that it was best to leave well enough alone.

When one looks at history, it is clear that “dumping” a Vice President is not a good idea, although there have been cases of such situations sometimes being necessary.

This is true of Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, with Burr having tried to take the Presidency away from Jefferson in the Presidential Election of 1800.

It is also true of Andrew Jackson and John C. Calhoun, who were at tremendous odds over the protective tariff in 1832, with Calhoun finally resigning the Vice Presidency with three months left in the term, before being replaced by Martin Van Buren for Jackson’s second term.

Abraham Lincoln’s decision to dump Hannibal Hamlin for Andrew Johnson in 1864 is seen as a mistake, as Johnson ended up being impeached, although not convicted, by Congress when he became President.

Ulysses S. Grant’s first term Vice President, Schuyler Colfax, being involved in scandal, was replaced by Henry Wilson for the second term, a necessary action, due to the Credit Mobilier Scandal revelations.

Franklin D. Roosevelt had three Vice Presidents in his four terms, with John Nance Garner refusing to run with FDR when he went for his third term. But Henry A. Wallace was replaced with Harry Truman for the fourth term, due to opposition from Southerners and conservatives who worried about Wallace on the issue of race relations, and his views of the Soviet Union during World War II. Looking back, it was better that Truman, rather than Wallace, became President upon FDR’s death in April 1945.

Gerald Ford is the last President to replace his Vice President, Nelson Rockefeller, with the choice of Bob Dole, but that helped to defeat him in a close race with Jimmy Carter.

Overall, it is best for a President to stick with his Vice President when running for a second term, unless there are extenuating circumstances as with Jefferson, Jackson, Grant and FDR.

Iowa Democratic Party Steak Fry Shows Experience (Joe Biden) And Youth (Julian Castro)

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This past weekend, the Iowa Democratic Party held its Annual Steak Fry celebration, hosted by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, bringing together two Democratic stars–one of experience and one of youth.

Vice President Joe Biden, a colleague and friend of Senator Harkin for the past thirty years, was there to remind people that he and Barack Obama had worked every day in the White House to advance the middle class, which they have done an excellent job on, considering the terrible economic collapse occurring just five years ago in mid September.

There is no question of Biden’s great credentials for the Presidency, although he will have to deal with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and other Democrats of a younger generation, with at least one likely to join the fray for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination to succeed Obama.

So the youth of the party was represented by San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who is 39 today, and runs the seventh largest city in America. Castro made a very good impression at the Democratic National Convention in 2012, reminding many of Barack Obama’s fantastic performance at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, which catapulted the Illinois Senator into the 2008 Presidential race and the White House!

Castro would be 42 in 2016, and would bring a Latino into the Presidential race, a sign of the future growth of the United States. He is very charismatic, handsome, and well spoken, but the question is whether he would challenge both Biden and Clinton if they were to run.

Certainly, Biden and Castro got along famously, but they represent a difference of 32 years, nearly two generations of leadership apart, at ages 42 and 74 in 2016.

Castro made clear that the Democratic Party belief in helping those in need had made a difference in his life plan, as well as that of his identical twin brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro.

Without question, Castro would be a good choice if youth and promise matter, but Biden has the edge on experience and knowledge and connections.

In any case, either is far better than any Republican considered likely to enter the Presidential race in 2016!

Barack Obama’s Ultimate Crisis: Can He Lead IF He Loses On Syria Vote In Congress?

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President Barack Obama is now facing the ultimate crisis—repudiation by a vote of either or both houses of Congress on the issue of responding to Syria’s use of chemical weapons on its own people.

Obama could have gone ahead a week ago, utilized his Commander In Chief powers, used by every Chief Executive in the past thirty years, to initiate military action, but instead chose to promote Congressional involvement, not realizing that this divided Congress would not cooperate!

The Republicans, always vastly hawkish, are now playing politics, except for a few (including Speaker John Boehner, Senators John McCain and LIndsey Graham as the most outstanding examples), who are supporting Obama on what they see as a national security issue. People who would have backed George W. Bush without pause now are refusing to support Obama, in order to weaken him.

But even the Democrats are showing unwillingness to back Obama, and in so doing, are taking away his credibility as a leader.

So with the likely defeat of what Obama wants, a resolution backing the President’s use of force in Syria, it is putting Obama on the spot. Does he go ahead anyway, and do what he feels he must do? Or does he back off, and look like a “paper tiger”, who roars, but has no bite?

It looks now that whatever the eventuality, Barack Obama may have reached the point that his second term will be unproductive and unfulfilled on almost any issue, domestic or foreign, and that the Presidency has been greatly harmed by this ultimate crisis that could have been avoided by doing what Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush did—take action, and answer criticisms later!

So will Barack Obama go down as a failed President, allowing his domestic enemies to destroy him, and try to make his accomplishments, which are many, to be overlooked or even reversed over time?

What a mess we are in, and it makes one wonder, if what this author is stating, turns out to be basically reality, whether or not Barack Obama should consider resignation, giving Vice President Joe Biden the Presidency, and allowing him the chance to pursue the agenda of Obama, with his much greater ability to get along with Congress, and work with opposition leaders in the Republican Party, even though, of course, Biden would still face fierce attacks and challenges without any doubt!

It is very radical to suggest resignation, but one can make the argument that for the future of the nation, if there is total paralysis, and inability to have influence in either domestic or foreign policy, that it is something to consider, as much as this author loathes the idea, the concept, of “quitting”!

John Kerry Makes Rand Paul Look Foolish And Naive!

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Secretary of State John Kerry “cleaned the clock” of Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in yesterday’s hearing on Syria in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggesting that Paul attend secret briefings and become “informed” about the Syrian matter, rather than spout isolationist propaganda.

Anyone watching had to be impressed by Kerry, and appalled by the ignorance and pure stupidity of Rand Paul, who has this vision of being our President!

The fact is that Rand Paul would face vehement opposition within the GOP if he runs for President, and if he, somehow, became the nominee, with his bankrupt libertarian ideology, he would lose in a massive landslide, which might actually be the only way to wipe out of national politics the delusional, crazy ideas not only of Rand Paul, but also of the “godmother” or libertarianism, Ayn Rand, who is also “loved” by Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate in 2012.

What Republican Presidents Have Wrought: The Vietnam War Syndrome And The Iraq War Syndrome!

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The Republican Party loves to claim that they are the experts, when it comes to American foreign policy, that they are far better than Democrats in executing foreign policy.

But the facts of history tell us otherwise, as witness:

Before America entered World War II. who were some of the most powerful, most influential people advocating isolationism— Republicans such as Senators Robert Taft of Ohio, Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan, Hiram Johnson of California, and Gerald Nye of North Dakota, with the latter two discussed in detail in the author’s book: TWILIGHT OF PROGRESSIVISM: THE WESTERN REPUBLICAN SENATORS AND THE NEW DEAL (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981).

When America entered the escalation stage of the Vietnam War under Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965, it was Republicans who backed the President in much greater numbers than Democrats, but even Johnson finally realized the need for America to get out of the war, and decided not to run again in 1968.

Republican President Richard Nixon ran his campaign for the Presidency in 1968, pledging that he would end the Vietnam War expeditiously, and saying he had a “secret plan” to end the war, which soon became evident did not exist, and Nixon made up his plan to end the war as he went along, and it took four long years to end the war, with a heavier loss of soldiers killed and wounded, than had been so under Johnson! Nixon and Henry Kissinger, his National Security Adviser and Secretary of State, misled the American people and lied to them about the plans and strategies to end the war, and it created a feeling of unwillingness to engage in overseas crises as a result, what could be called the Vietnam War Syndrome.

And then under George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the Republican run national government in 2003 lied to us, manipulated us, propagandized us, to begin a war in Iraq, with no plan to get out, and the war dragged on through the second Bush term, and into the Barack Obama Administration. No “weapons of mass destruction” were ever found, and it created an Iraq War Syndrome, which now has made many Americans reluctant to engage in a military action against an outlaw nation, Syria, which has utilized chemical warfare, only the third world leader ever to do so, after Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussein!

So the Republican Party and its cynical, corrupt leadership in the 1969-1973 and 2002-2009 periods poisoned the political atmosphere of America, making it more difficult to engage in the shaping of a sane, rational foreign policy that would be in American interests.

And now Rand Paul and his kind, libertarian “Know Nothings”, promote isolationism all over again, back to the image of the GOP in the late 1930s before American entrance into World War II.

The damage that Presidents Richard Nixon and George W. Bush have wrought is massive, and undermining America in 2013 from doing what it must do, react to the massive war crime of the Syrian government!