Less Educated Whites

Odd Change Of Support For Both Political Parties: Will It Affect The Future?

Ronald 7 Comments

The tradition has been that African Americans and Latinos, and people who are working class and less educated voters, tend to vote Democratic, and that white suburbanites and wealthy, educated voters vote Republican.

That changed in the Presidential Election Of 2024, but it is hard to know if it is simply a one time occurrence.

What is clear also is that young women are moving more toward the Democrats, while younger men are moving toward the Republicans, but again, that may be an outlier as well.

It makes trying to project ahead for the Midterm Congressional and state elections of 2026, and the Presidential Election of 2028, a massive challenge for both parties.

At this point, Democrats have a tremendous, talented group of Governors, along with a few Senators and Representatives, who are seen as potential national candidates.

Having so many potential candidates may be a blessing, or a curse, while the Republicans, seemingly, have far fewer potential candidates.

Recruitment of candidates for state and national office is in full swing now, as the talent pool will be particularly urgent for Democrats!

Whether the Democrats can reorganize much of the coalition that won the Presidency twice for Barack Obama ins 2008 and 2012 is a crucial matter, as we plan ahead for 2026 and 2028.

Age, Gender, Race, And Education Gap In Polls On Presidential Election Of 2024

admin 7 Comments

At this point of the campaign for the Presidential Election Of 2024, there is a major age, gender, race, and education gap developing.

Young women are overwhelmingly favoring Kamala Harris, while young men are giving a slight edge to Donald Trump.

Also, older white men are giving a wider margin to Trump, while older white women are more evenly divided.

One must recall that younger voters in the Presidential Election of 2020 gave the edge to Joe Biden.

Now, overall, younger voters, women voters, and racial minority voters (Black, Latino) are clearly favoring Harris, along with college educated voters and suburbanites, while older voters, less educated white voters, and rural voters, are favoring Trump.

Whether these major divisions based on age, gender, race, education, and location of population will be sustained by Election Day will be interesting to watch!

Factors Favoring Democrats In 2024 Presidential Election

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The Democratic Party has several advantages going into the Presidential Election campaign of 2024.

Among them are:

Women in large percentages are outraged by the Supreme Court ending legal abortion protections on the federal level, and the actions by Republican state legislatures to prevent abortion rights further should favor Democrats in 2024, state and national levels.

African Americans are likely to continue to support Democrats with the new attack on “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion”, including the words and actions of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but also the broad attack on civil rights by Republicans at all levels.

Young people, particularly those of Generation Z, born from 1997 onward, are strongly moving toward the Democrats.

College educated people are becoming more strongly Democratic across the nation.

Gays, lesbians, and transgender Americans clearly see the Republican attack on their basic civil rights as a dire threat.

Suburban voters have become more Democratic in recent elections, and are likely to continue in that vein.

Religion has declined rapidly, which also helps promote Democrats.

Supreme Court decisions have been highly unpopular, and helped to shift many voters toward Democrats.

The continuing danger of Donald Trump has motivated many voters to turn to the Democrats.

Joe Biden’s two and a half year record, arguably the best in domestic affairs since Lyndon B. Johnson, boosts his candidacy, including the economy which has been better under Biden than any earlier President at this point, and with the one problem, inflation, rapidly declining, but with unemployment at a more than 50 year low.

The biggest problem is the uncertainty of the Hispanic-Latino vote, particularly among Cuban Americans, and those from Nicaragua, and Venezuela heritage, but even among Mexican Americans who have become more skeptical about Democrats.

Also, elderly Americans are less Democratic than they have traditionally been, and the Trump support is about one third of the electorate.

The less educated whites are declining rapidly, but are still strong supporters of Republicans, because of racist tendencies.

So the election will be highly contestable, and some experts say the election will come down to four states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin!