John Kasich

The Trump Effect: Goodbye To Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul

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Donald Trump is in the process of doing great damage to the Republican Party, but already, his effect has been to destroy half of the candidates in a dramatic way.

Everyone knew that George Pataki and Jim Gilmore had no hope of being the nominee, even though in some ways, they are actually more mainstream than others.  But the GOP is not working to be mainstream, which is why they will lose the Presidential Election of 2016.

But others have been damaged badly, and can now be considered out of the race, even though they are refusing to accept reality.

The biggest loser is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, backed by the Koch Brothers, but being totally inept, indecisive, and weak in his campaign presentations, a very different image than he had as he attacked labor unions in his state.

Rick Perry had hoped he could recover from the debacle of 2012 debates, but he is now down to one paid staffer in Iowa, and is no longer a factor.

Bobby Jindal, one of the most hypocritical of all candidates, has never taken off, and has lost in recent polls any support he seemed to have.

Lindsey Graham is an influential Senator, but totally anemic and embarrassing in his lack of support even in his home state of South Carolina.

Chris Christie has lost his purpose, as Donald Trump is much more of a braggart, a bully, a loud mouth than Christie, so he is done.

Rick Santorum might have ended up second to Mitt Romney in 2012, and won some caucuses and primaries, but lightning will not strike twice for him.

Rand Paul is also pitiful, going nowhere fast, and inconsistent in his libertarianism, and now can purse another Senate race as his state party in Kentucky has agreed to a caucus, instead of a primary for the Presidential race.

So effectively, the Republican race is down to 8 people, much more manageable:  Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

And then, lurking in the background, is Mitt Romney, which would be a sign of desperation for the Republican Party!

Back To The Future: Mitt Romney In 2016?

Ronald 3 Comments

The Republican Party is so torn apart that now there are rumors and hints that 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, is reconsidering his decision not to run again, due to the collapse of the so called “Establishment” Republicans, led by former Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush has run a poor campaign, despite all of the money he has gathered, and there are indications that he is starting to be abandoned, as Donald Trump continues to take up all of the oxygen in the Republican race.

While Ohio Governor John Kaisch has made some progress in his campaign, he is far from being seen as anywhere near becoming a leader in the competition for the Presidency, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio has not impressed many in his quest for the nomination.

So Romney may decide to enter the race, but still with the same shortcomings and faults that caused his defeat by President Barack Obama in 2012.

To believe that Romney could, somehow, win the Presidency in 2016 is mostly hype and delusion.

The question arises:  How many times has a defeated Presidential candidate come back to win the Presidency?  Here are the facts, a total of 5 times:

Thomas Jefferson lost the Presidency in 1796 and won in 1800.

Andrew Jackson lost the Presidency in 1824 and won in 1828.

William Henry Harrison lost the Presidency in 1836 and won in 1840.

Grover Cleveland lost the Presidency in 1888 and won in 1892.

Richard Nixon lost the Presidency in 1960 and won in 1968.

That is it, five Presidents, but realize that Jackson and Cleveland actually won the popular vote in their losing races in 1824 and 1888, but lost the electoral vote, and Cleveland had been President, then lost, and then won.

Of course, there have been 4 times when a future President lost the nomination of his party, and then went on to win the Presidency later, including:

James Monroe lost the nomination in 1808 to James Madison, but then won the Presidency in 1816.

Lyndon B. Johnson lost the nomination in 1960 to John F. Kennedy, but then became President by succession in 1963.

Ronald Reagan lost the nomination in 1976 to Gerald Ford, but then won the Presidency in 1980.

George H. W. Bush lost the nomination in 1980 to Ronald Reagan, but then won the Presidency in 1988.

At the same time, there have been 5 candidates nominated multiple times and never winning the Presidency, as follows:

Charles C. Pinckney won the nomination in 1804 and 1808.

Henry Clay won the nomination in 1824, 1832, and 1844.

William Jennings Bryan won the nomination in 1896, 1900, and 1908.

Thomas E. Dewey won the nomination in 1944 and 1948.

Adlai E. Stevenson II won the nomination in 1952 and 1956.

Also being on the ballot for President multiple times were Socialist Party nominees Eugene V. Debs (1900, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1920) and Norman Thomas (1928, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948) and Ross Perot (Independent in 1992 and Reform Party in 1996).

In any case, the odds that Romney, if he ran for President, would become the Republican nominee and win the Presidency are very poor!

 

 

 

Public Policy Polling Makes Clear It Is Time For Eight Of Republican Presidential Candidates To Withdraw From The Race!

Ronald 1 Comment

The latest Public Policy Polling poll indicates that it is time for 8 of the 17 Republicans to withdraw from the Presidential race for 2016, as their chances of improving are nil, and they are losing money and campaign staff rapidly, if they had it to begin with!

The following candidates need to “throw in the towel” on their campaigns:

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

Former New York Governor George Pataki

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Even if one thinks some of these candidates have some ideas worthy of consideration, it is clear that their hopes for the Republican Presidential nomination are less than zero.  No miracle will happen, and it is time to get back to reality!

If these eight withdrew, it would leave 9 candidates, who could all debate on September in the CNN debate.

This would include Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina (who has surged in polls, but is not scheduled to be in the September 16 “Top Ten” debate); Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush; Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; Ohio Governor John Kasich; Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

The Likely “Best” Choice For The Republican Ticket In 2016: John Kasich And Marco Rubio

Ronald 30 Comments

The first Republican debate is long over, and Donald Trump is monopolizing all of the oxygen in the room, but he is a calamity waiting to happen to the Republican Party.

It is clear already that the best ticket the GOP could offer the American people, in November 2016, would be to nominate Ohio Governor John Kasich for President and Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Vice President.

This would offer the American people a 64 year old Congressional veteran, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and 6 years as Ohio Governor—a man who is a clear cut conservative but centrist in nature, accepting Medicaid; accepting gay marriage as established and tolerant of gays and lesbians; having an element of compassion toward the poor working class, drug offenders, and mentally ill people; great experience in balancing budgets as head of the House Budget Committee; great communications ability, including six years as a talk show host on Fox News Channel; a very popular Governor of the crucial state for any Republican to win the White House; who has accepted that climate change exists; has supported gun regulation in the past; has supported criminal justice reform; is open minded on illegal immigration and eventual citizenship; and has an enlightened view of Christianity and its doctrines, so that recently he has been called a Pope Francis type personality.

However, others have said that Kasich has a “prickly” personality; that he has a “hair trigger” temper; that he is condescending, arrogant, and manipulative, which is, of course, quite disturbing. It also has been pointed out that he has weakened labor unions in Ohio, and has undermined public education in Ohio, in favor of charter schools. So, as with any candidate, he has definite shortcomings, but there is also the reality that, in comparison to his rivals, he stands out as having more potential as a candidate, and to have some, if not all, of the proper character traits, with no one having all, unfortunately.

So it is clear that Kasich is not preferable to a Democratic nominee, any of them in reality, but he comes across as the best person in the race on the Republican side at this writing.

At the same time, Marco Rubio, at age 45 in 2016, might be the best choice for Vice President. He has charisma; good looks; is Hispanic (Cuban American); represents another swing state like Ohio is, but Florida is the largest state to be a swing state; and while he is much more conservative than Kasich, he has potential for growth and maturity in his views over time. Rubio would not be thrilled to be Vice President, but it is a stepping stone to the Presidency when he is older and more seasoned. Besides, he has given up his chance to hold his Senate seat, so it would be more enticing for him to accept the Vice Presidency if he fails to win the Presidential nomination of his party.

This would be a team that would easily give the Republican Party their best shot at winning, but if they do not appeal to women, African Americans, Hispanics, the young, and to working class Americans, they have no chance of winning, so they need to moderate their image.

This team of Kasich and Rubio could accomplish what no other combination would be able to do–win the White House for the Republicans!  Having said that, the odds for the Democrats to keep the White House are excellent, and if Trump runs as an independent or third party candidate, it is guaranteed that the Democrats will win, and likely be certain to regain the Senate, and possibly,. even the House of Representative!

Winners And Losers In First Republican Debate

Ronald 9 Comments

It is clear to this blogger that the winners of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, last night were in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Dr Benjamin Carson
Rand Paul

It is also clear to this blogger that the losers of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, lat night were in order:

Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee

if one includes the separate debate of the seven at the bottom of the polls, the winners in order were:

Carly Fiorina
Rick Perry

The losers were the rest of the group in the following order:

Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki

Who came out as potentially “Presidential” in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

It seems more likely than ever that one of these three will be the Republican Presidential nominee, but there is a long road to six months from now and the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and beyond, so we shall see!

Likelihood Of Oldest Presidential Candidate Race Ever In American History!

Ronald 6 Comments

As the 2016 Presidential campaign heats up, it looks more and more likely that the two major party nominees will be among the oldest ever nominated or elected.

The Democrats have the following candidates who will be 64 or even beyond 70 as possible nominees:

Hillary Clinton 69
Joe Biden 74
Bernie Sanders 75
Jim Webb 70 (but nearly 71)
Lincoln Chafee 63 (but nearly 64)

The Republicans have the following candidates who will be 64 or beyond as possible nominees:

Jeb Bush 63 (but nearly 64)
Donald Trump 70
John Kasich 64
Rick Perry 66 (but nearly 67)
Jim Gilmore 67
George Pataki 71
Dr Benjamin Carson 65

Between the likely Democratic nominee and the likely Republican nominee, we can expect the oldest combination of Presidential candidates if one for each group above are the chosen nominees.

Right now, the Democratic nominee seems likely to be one of the top three on the list–Clinton, Biden or Sanders; and the Republican nominee likely to be one of the top three on that list—Bush, Trump, Kasich.

However, IF the Republican nominee turns out to be the younger candidates, such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio, we could have a bigger difference in age than we have rarely had, with only vast differences in age of William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900; Franklin D. Roosevelt and Thomas E. Dewey in 1944; Harry Truman and Dewey in 1948; Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984; Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush in 1992; Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996; Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008; and Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Note that in the cases of a much older and much younger opponents, the older candidate won with McKinley, FDR, Truman, and Reagan, but the younger candidate won with Clinton twice and Obama twice.

If Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Lindsey Graham were the GOP nominee, the average age of the two opponents would still be close to the highest in history, with their average age in the low 60s at inauguration.

Remember that the only Presidents to be 64 or older at inauguration were Ronald Reagan, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, George H. W. Bush, and Zachary Taylor.

The only other Presidents over the age of 60 at inauguration were:

Dwight D. Eisenhower
Andrew Jackson
John Adams
Gerald Ford
Harry Truman

So only 10 Presidents out of 43 were 60 or older when taking the oath, while now we are very likely to have both candidates over the age of 60, with 11 out of 17 Republican candidates being over 60, and 5 out of 6 (Martin O’Malley the exception) of the Democratic candidates over the age of 60.

So while we had a “new generation of leadership” three times in the past half century with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, now we are almost certain to have an “old generation” of leadership coming to power on January 20, 2017.

The Best Republican In 2012: Jon Huntsman! The Best Republican In 2016: John Kasich! But Not An Endorsement!

Ronald 1 Comment

There is no debate that former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman was the best Republican in the Presidential campaign of 2012. He had the best credentials, including real foreign policy expertise, and unwillingness to take crazy, extremist stands on issues or to make nutty statements. Of course, it got him nowhere, and he gave up running for President again long ago!

Now in 2016, there is no question that out of a horrible group of potential Republican Presidential candidates that Ohio Governor and former House Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich is easily the best potential nominee in 2016.

Kasich was very late in announcing, doing so only this week, and being ignored in all of the hype about Donald Trump, who has taken all of the oxygen out of the room with his rantings and ravings, and insults against anyone who criticizes him, whether fellow Republican contenders or the news media.

But Kasich is the most experienced of all of the potential GOP nominees, and has avoided coming across as a right wing extremist in his statements. He is clearly a conservative, but considered in the “mainstream”, whatever that means.

No one is saying, certainly not this blogger, that he is about to vote for John Kasich if he was the GOP nominee.

And no one is saying that everything he has said and done is endorsed or acceptable. He has shortcomings as everyone else does, but in comparison, he comes across as the best alternative IF the Republicans were to win the Presidential Election of 2016. His stands on immigration, education, and Medicaid make him better than any alternative the Republicans have.

In many ways, John Kasich is the alternative to Jeb Bush, to whom he has been compared, but has much more experience than Bush has had, and avoids the connection to the Bush name.

And lately, Jeb Bush has been making horrible statements of his views, which seem to be catering to the Tea Party crowd, while Kasich so far is seen as less willing to cater.

Having said that, Kasich has just made some terrible statements about climate change (that nothing should be done as it is God’s will) and about military intervention in the Middle East, making one worry that he could be linking up with the neoconservatives, who took us into the Iraq War, similar in that regard to Jeb Bush.

So again, this is not an endorsement, but simply recognition that were the nation forced to accept a Republican President, John Kasich is the best of a terrible crop of candidates!

Fox News Channel Destroying Any Chance Of Republican Presidential Victory In 2016!

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Fox News Channel is destroying any chance of a Republican Presidential victory in 2016, with its decision to allow only the top ten candidates in public opinion polls of their choice to compete in the Republican Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Thursday, August 6.

August 6 is the 70th anniversary of the Hiroshima atomic bombing, that forced Japan to surrender in World War II.

This August 6th debate could be the “Hiroshima” of the Republican Party for the Presidential Election of 2016, and could have the effect of undermining the Republican hopes, not just for the White House, but for continued control of the US Senate, and even the House of Representatives.

Any debate that does not allow candidates to compete, based on the fickle attitudes of that small percentage who participate in public opinion polls, is totally lacking in legitimacy.

Yes, 16 or 17 candidates (if former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore announces as he intends to do before August 6) is an unwieldy number, but the answer is to have two mixed groups of eight or nine candidates debate for 90 minutes, followed by the other eight or nine debating on similar issues immediately after, or on the next evening.

The idea is to pick candidates for each debate as in a lottery, whatever eight or nine show up first are in the first debate, and the others are in the second debate.

This gives the voters a chance to see all the candidates do their pitch, make an impression, rather than eliminating some candidates who might have a real chance to be the nominee if they were able to gain the same exposure as the others who are running.

To have a debate that might not include Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Jim Gilmore (those seven at the moment seen as unlikely to be in the top ten of the polls) is totally preposterous!

A “Nice”, “Authentic” Person, Not A Mean Spirited, Uncaring Person: What People Want For Their Next President!

Ronald 1 Comment

Americans are confused and upset about the uncertainties facing the nation, due to the political split in Congress and in the state legislatures. They might seem to cheer on a nasty, bullyish candidate who, momentarily, appears to vent their frustrations. But when emotions calm, that is not what the American people are looking for!

They want someone who is a “nice guy”, “authentic”, “real”, “truly concerned” about the issues and problems, confident and sure of himself, and a good debater who can overcome his opponents with his facts, knowledge, and charm, and convince the American people he is the right person for the Presidency! Joe Biden fits that description precisely, and even his opponents in the Republican Party, including Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, and many others, respect and like him personally!

No Republican Presidential candidate fits that bill, not one of them.

Neither does Hillary Clinton fully evoke that feeling, and Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley simply do not have the ability to go all the way, and Sanders has the issue that most Americans are totally ignorant of the word “Socialism” and its meaning, and that harms his candidacy!

Face it, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Dr Benjamin Carson, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina—all of these come across as mean spirited and uncaring.

Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Marco Rubio come across in a somewhat better fashion, as does George Pataki and Jim Gilmore, but none of them have the personality and genuine nature of Joe Biden!

We have never elected a President since World War II, with the exception of Richard Nixon, who was not likable when elected. Lyndon B. Johnson, while not that likable, was in office before he faced election, as was Harry Truman, so they are not included. But all the others, despite whatever shortcomings they had, were likable when they were elected, except for Nixon.

We want to “like” our President, and the Republican Party has a major problem with “likability”, which guarantees they will lose, even to a candidate such as Hillary Clinton, who is not seen as particularly “likable”, while Sanders, O Malley and Joe Biden are all very “likable”. But Biden stands out over O’Malley and Sanders!

The Fox News-Republican Debate Of August 6—Which Ten Should Be In Debate?

Ronald 4 Comments

The Republican National Committee has put itself in a hole, by allowing Fox News Channel to limit the number of participants in the first GOP Presidential debate on August 6 to ten.

Yes, there are too many candidates, and now it looks as if it will be 17, not 16, with assurances that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Ohio Governor John Kasich, and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore will enter the race before that debate.

The whole concept of 17 candidates, unprecedented in American history, is absolutely crazy, but why should national public opinion polls decide this, rather than common sense, as to who is really qualified to be a potential President, based on experience and accomplishments?

So this blogger will now eliminate SEVEN of the 17 potential debate participants, on the grounds that they do not have the credentials to be President of the United States. This does not mean that the ten who are, on paper, qualified, SHOULD be President or be the nominee, but simply that they have better credentials to compete for the White House.

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore–out of office since 2002, not one chance in a thousand of being nominated.

Carly Fiorina—no government experience, failed in the corporate world, never has a non politician been elected, and only Wendell Willkie was ever nominated by a major party.

Dr. Benjamin Carson— a fantastic pediatric surgeon, but no government experience, and there is no chance he can be elected, and his statements are often totally loony.

Former New York Governor George Pataki—a moderate, probably the most moderate, but absolutely no chance of being the nominee of the 2015 Republican Party.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal—-the most low rated governor in public opinion polls, a true disaster, and not a chance of being the nominee.

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry—had a chance in 2012, came across as moronic, and has no chance, even with new glasses, to be the nominee.

Business Donald Trump–who has NO qualifications to be President, and no government experience, no chance to be the nominee, and is out to destroy the Republican brand to feed his ego.

So the “serious” candidates who SHOULD be allowed in the debate are:

Five Senators–4 in the Senate now (Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham) and former Senator Rick Santorum.

Five Governors—3 in office now (Chris Christie, John Kasich, Scott Walker) and two former Governors (Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee)

Those who would object to this elimination of seven candidates have to answer the question: Do you REALLY believe any of the seven eliminated have ANY chance to be the nominee? Come on, get real!