Iowa Caucuses

The Sudden Rise of Senator Rick Santorum As Possible GOP Presidential Nominee!

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With the Iowa Caucuses 24 hours away, it is very clear that with all of the public opinion polls that have taken place in the past six months, that again, while they are interesting and good discussion pieces, it does not guarantee that what these polls claim are the views of the voters will actually work out in practice.

Who would have thought that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, long regarded as insignificant and having no chance to win, is now in a position of possibly ending up winning the Iowa Caucuses? His surge the past week has come at precisely the right time with the actual vote about to occur!

But when one hears that possibly 41 percent of those who intend to vote are not settled on who to back, it proves once again the fickle and confused nature of many voters, possibly more so in a tough time economically as we are experiencing, due to the collapse of the economy in 2008 and since.

So a good looking, friendly, warm candidate who comes across as genuine and real, as Rick Santorum does, suddenly has a real shot at winning the GOP Presidential nomination.

This does not mean that progressives should be happy at Santorum being the possible winner in Iowa, and having a good chance to be the candidate of the Republican Party. He appeals to social conservatives, highly religious voters, due to his stand against gay rights in all forms and details; his total anti abortion stands from the beginning of his political career; and his decision to home school his seven children.

The point is that Santorum might come across on the surface as a “nice” guy who is accessible, does not dodge questions from voters, looks at people he is speaking to with a direct eye on them, and appears more sincere in his views than anyone, and far less of a “flip flopper” than possibly anyone in the race.

But not only Mitt Romney, the supposed GOP front runner, but also Barack Obama, needs to be aware that a Santorum candidacy is a threat to the mainstream of the nation and the Republican Party!

If he is nominated, he should, in theory, with his extreme right wing views, the most since Barry Goldwater in 1964, be easy for Barack Obama to defeat.

To believe, however, that Santorum would be easy to defeat, could be a fatal error on the part of the Democratic Party and President Obama!

Instead, a possible Rick Santorum Presidency MUST be seen as a “clear and present danger” to the achievements of the New Deal, the Great Society, and the reforms in the 20th century brought about by both Democratic and Republican Presidents!

Rick Santorum would be a danger to women, African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, immigrants of all backgrounds, gays and lesbians, the environment, government regulation of business, a fair tax system, labor rights, a fair balance in the federal courts including the Supreme Court, and American foreign policy with the threat of more foreign wars in the name of fighting what Santorum would call “Islamofascism”!

So no one should take the possible candidacy of Rick Santorum for President as something to dismiss or ignore. That would be at the threat and danger to too many groups and issues!

Further Evidence Of Insignificance Of Iowa Caucuses, And Significance Of New Hampshire Primary!

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So much attention is paid to the Iowa Caucuses, but the more one examines them, one realizes how unimportant to history Iowa really is.

Only George W. Bush and Barack Obama have won the Iowa Caucuses and gone on to being elected President. Jimmy Carter fell behind “Uncommitted” in 1976. One could say that since the two most recent Presidents won Iowa, that it is an indication of the changing role of Iowa, but that is really highly doubtful!

At the same time, New Hampshire’s Primary HAS been VERY significant in picking Presidents, as Jimmy Carter in 1976 and John F. Kennedy in 1960 won the state, and Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H W Bush in 1988 also won the state.

Historical Reality Of Iowa (Top Three) And New Hampshire (Top Two) Are The Only Choices For Presidential Nomination Of Either Party

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All of the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination contend they will go on, even if they perform poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But the historical reality is that unless one ends up in the top three in Iowa AND the top two in New Hampshire, there is no future for such a candidate.

The only exceptions are Bill Clinton in 1992 in Iowa in 4th place behind “favorite son” Tom Harkin, “Uncommitted”, and Paul Tsongas, but Harkin winning 76 percent of the vote; and John McCain, who in 2008 in Iowa ran behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but lost to Thompson for third place only by a total of 424 votes. NEVER has anyone in either party ending up lower than second place in New Hampshire won the Presidential nomination of either political party!

Thus, only five Iowa third or fourth place finishers have ended up winning New Hampshire and being the nominee: Bill Clinton fourth in 1992, Michael Dukakis third in 1988, George McGovern third in 1972, John McCain fourth in 2008, and George H W Bush third in 1988.

So, assuming the polls are correct, Jon Huntsman (not really competing in Iowa), Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and probably Newt Gingrich, are “toast”, with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and probably Rick Santorum (due to a late surge at the proper time), the real contenders in New Hampshire.

That would mean that Rick Santorum would become the candidate of the “social conservatives”, but the odds are that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP nominee for President in 2012 against President Obama!

The Iowa Republican Caucuses Historically: A Waste Of Time!

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The Iowa Caucuses, which have existed since 1972 for the Democratic Party and competitively for the Republicans since 1976, have been largely a “waste of time” as far as picking future Presidents, and even Presidential nominees.

At least, the Democrats have chosen Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama, with Carter, Clinton and Obama going on to the White House.

But the Republican Caucuses have been much less successful and representative of what happened. Only Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 have gone on to be the nominee, and only Bush being elected and reelected. There was no actual vote between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan in 1976, and Reagan lost in 1980 and ran unopposed in 1984, and the same for George H W Bush in 1988 and no opposition in 1992.

The point is that the Iowa Caucuses gain an inordinate amount of attention, but only maybe a bit more than 100,000 people participate, far fewer than a primary in percentage of voters, and therefore, it has never been seen as a reliable barometer of who a future Presidential nominee or winner might be!

So don’t tend to think that the results in Iowa will matter, as the New Hampshire primary has ALWAYS been a much better barometer for the fortunes of Presidential candidates, since it emerged in 1952.

The Collapse Of Newt Gingrich And Surge Of Rick Santorum As Iowa Caucuses Near!

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The Republican Presidential nomination race has gone through amazing changes of fortune, if one considers public opinion polls reliable.

Newt Gingrich has become the newest candidate to rise and collapse, as indicated by the CNN-Time poll released today. He follows Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain in the ups, and then the downs, of public opinion polling.

Ron Paul has surged, but is now under heavy attack and may be starting to wear down as a result, although with the power of libertarianism in Iowa, he might still win the state in the caucuses or end a close second.

But the sudden surge of Rick Santorum is the newest surprise, although it must be pointed out that Iowa has 60 percent of Republicans who call themselves social conservatives, and Santorum has visited every county of the state, and more often been in Iowa than any other Republican candidate, and definitely appeals to social conservatives. He now shows up as third behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

To believe that Rick Santorum could actually win the GOP nomination is, however, to believe in the tooth fairy! But he could win Iowa in a close finish!

What is clear is that there is great dissatisfaction with the Republican candidates for President, and the constantly changing fortunes of the candidates is, therefore, a danger sign for the Presidential Election of 2012.

As Iowa Caucuses Near, Growing Problems For Front Runners Paul, Gingrich, Romney

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As the Iowa Caucuses near, just eight days from now, there are growing problems for the front runners in the polls.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is having problems explaining away the hateful, prejudiced, racist, anti Semitic, anti gay rants on his newsletters in the 1980s and 1990s, claiming he is not responsible for what was published under his name.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is having his account of his first divorce challenged, as court records show that he pursued the divorce, rather than his first wife. Also, it has been noted that Gingrich, even in the 1970s and early 1980s, expressed interest in running for President one day, and stated the view that his first wife, considerably older than himself, would be a burden to run with, because of the age difference and his view that she was not attractive enough to be First Lady!

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the acknowledged wealthiest person running for President, has refused to release any financial records, which only a small number of presidential possibilities have failed to do in the past. This is an issue that will not go away, particularly because of the knowledge that when he worked at Bain Capital, his goal was to cut work forces at companies controlled by that corporation, rather than to increase job opportunity, something he claims he would be good at, as compared to Barack Obama.

So more than ever, the Iowa Caucuses seem more muddled, and probably insignificant, since the number of participants are so small, and so one sided in their views, that they are not representative of the nation, or really, even New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada, the other “early states”!

With Ron Paul Having His “Surge” In Iowa, The Investigation Of His Record Begins!

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Texas Congressman Ron Paul has been very appealing to libertarians, and was in fact the Presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party in 1988.

Having run as a Republican for President in 2008, the only repeat candidate along with Mitt Romney, Paul is presently first in some Iowa public opinion polls as the Iowa Caucuses of January 3 get closer.

So Paul is having a “surge”, as earlier Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich have had. Only Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have not had a “surge’ as the search for the non Romney candidate continues.

So now that Ron Paul is being paid more attention, let us look at the facts about a man who has been around a long time, and has taken positions on all kinds of issues, meaning at least some will be seen in a positive light, depending on the person looking at Paul’s record. But there is plenty to be disturbed about!

But face the facts: There is no way that Ron Paul can be the GOP Presidential nominee, and if he looked as if he was going to be, there would be such a ganging up on him by the Republican Party, which despite its claims, is NOT a libertarian, isolationist party as Ron Paul basically is.

What is objectionable about Ron Paul, in no special order?

1. Ron Paul has in the past, in a newsletter he now disavows, but was under his name, stated racist, anti Semitic, and anti gay statements. While he is not the only Republican to make racist or anti gay statements, the fact that he said them in a newsletter many years ago makes him even more objectionable, since it is harder to refute.

2. Paul is for taking America out of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and all free trade agreements. He is perceived as an isolationist.

3. He is highly critical of Israel, the only Republican candidate to be so, and yet does not see Iran as a threat for the future with the development of nuclear weapons.

4. Paul is for wiping out most government agencies and their bureaucracies, including Education, Commerce, Homeland Security, Energy, Health and Human Services, and Energy. He also would love to eliminate the Federal Reserve Board. None of this is going to happen, no matter what criticisms there might be of these agencies.

5. Paul promotes letting states decide most matters dealt with by the national government, and thinks climate change is a hoax, and advocates stopping interference with religion’s influence in government, including the teaching of intelligent design over evolution.

6. He is a strong believer in pro-life without exceptions; against any government intervention in the environment; any regulation of guns; and any aspect of affirmative action.

7. Paul opposes any kind of amnesty for illegal aliens, any support of any kind for them, and birthright citizenship for their children born in the United States.

8. Paul believes only in excise or sales taxes, and the wiping out of the income tax, and refuses to support any spending programs that create new debts.

Also, a study by a political science journal, The American Journal of Political Science, came to the conclusion that, overall, Paul has the most conservative voting record of all 3,320 members of Congress from 1937 to 2002!

So the attacks on Ron Paul as outside the mainstream, even of the GOP, is rapidly growing!

Barack Obama And The American People Given A Christmas Gift By The Caving Of The House Republicans And Speaker John Boehner!

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The House Republicans, led by Speaker of the House John Boehner, caved in this afternoon, under pressure from the Wall Street Journal, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, and numerous Senate Republicans including a new convert, Senator John McCain of Arizona, and agreed to the two month temporary extension of the payroll tax cut, unemployment compensation, and delay in Medicare cuts to doctors.

The House Republicans were pushed into a corner, and this is a major victory for the American people, the Democrats, and President Barack Obama, who finally took a no negotiation stand and forced the hand of Boehner, Eric Cantor, and the Tea Party radicals.

The effect of this victory is that Boehner has been weakened as Speaker; the Tea Party radicals have been shown to be destructive to the nation at large; Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, the chief deputies to Boehner, have been shown for the deceit they practiced on Boehner in their mad rush to seize power from him; and this event has likely assured a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress!

The Republicans have, symbolically, shot themselves in the foot, and will have trouble convincing the American people that they care about the middle class, and that they are not beholden to the corporations and the top one percent wealthy in this country!

Barack Obama looks a lot stronger and more assertive as a result of this confrontation, and with Ron Paul rising in Iowa, and being exposed for his racist and anti Semitic past, and with the GOP in total disarray, the odds of Obama winning reelection have improved tremendously!

Evangelical Christians, Orthodox Jews, And Prejudice Against Women, Gays, Blacks

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It is a very unpleasant reality that people who claim extreme religiosity, whether evangelical Christians or Orthodox Jews, often have proved to be bigoted and prejudiced against women, gays, and blacks. It is a sad commentary on those who profess to be closest to God!

This reality rears its ugly head when we learn that the leader of an evangelical group in Iowa has called upon Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann to withdraw from the Presidential race, even though she is polling better than Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum in the state polls before the Iowa Caucuses that occur thirteen days from now. What reason other than being a woman could there be for such a statement? It is well known that evangelical Christians believe in the “traditional” role of women as walking behind men and being subjugated to their husbands. Also, Orthodox Jews see women as not worthy to sit with men at a synagogue service, and separate men from women at weddings. It is time for such discrimination to end in both religious groups!

It is also well known that both groups are anti gay, and both have promoted racist attitudes against African Americans historically, and have not repudiated such attitudes even recently. This is a good explanation why the “n” word has been utilized so often in both evangelical and Orthodox Jewish circles.

All of this is extremely outrageous, and undermines the whole concept of what it means to be religious!

Ron Paul In Lead In Iowa Polls, But That Will Be His Peak, With Jon Huntsman In New Hampshire The REAL Story To Watch!

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Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the libertarian favorite, and seen by some as a Tea Party original due to his libertarian views, now leads in Iowa, according to the Public Policy Polling organization, considered a reputable poll of public opinion.

It now seems likely that Paul might win the Iowa Caucuses, but before one gets “excited”, realize that Iowa is far from a barometer as to who shall become the Presidential nominee.

The better barometer, by far, is the New Hampshire primary, and latest polls indicate that Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, is rising as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are falling. This should be Romney’s state, but Huntsman has been predicting that he will win New Hampshire, which would catapult him into a position of leadership that so often has led to “momentum” to go on and become the Presidential nominee of either political party.

The most interesting development will be whether Huntsman, who has been ignored by just about everyone in political prognosticating, can “surge” at just the right moment.

If he does, he could be Barack Obama’s greatest nightmare, as he is still, by far, the best qualified candidate the GOP offers for President–a rational, reasonable, sane person in the tradition of the Republican Party of the past!