Governorships

Republican “Beards”: Tim Scott, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley

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The Republican Party is using its “beards” to try to convince voters of minority groups (African American, Hispanic and Latino, Asian American), which voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, that the party of heavily white, rural, and older voters is really concerned about equal opportunity and justice for them, a total lie!

So therefore, Tim Scott, the right wing African American Congressman from South Carolina, is being touted as a replacement for Senator Jim DeMint, who is leaving to head the Heritage Foundation. Scott is so extremist that he could be seen as the equivalent of Associate Justice Clarence Thomas, who is despised by a vast majority of the African American population, and even if Scott is appointed to the Senate to replace DeMint, the chance of him convincing the black community, which voted for Barack Obama by about 95 percent, that he is legitimately interested in their welfare and advancement, is miniscule!

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas may be Cuban American, but even their ethnic group voted about 52 percent for Obama, and 71 percent of all Hispanics and Latinos (with only 3 percent being Cuban, as compared to 65 percent being Mexican), voted for the President. So the odds that either Rubio or Cruz is going to be able to convince those of Spanish speaking descent to become Republican, after the anti immigrant campaign of Mitt Romney, and the Republican heritage of standing against immigration reform (with the exception of George W. Bush and John McCain), is really a stretch of one’s delusional thinking!

And the fact that two Asian (from India heritage) Republicans, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, are nationally known figures, does not mean that those of any Asian heritage, including from the Far East, are going to vote Republican, when 73 percent of Asian Americans voted for Obama. This is another example of total hallucination by the Republican leadership!

All that Scott, Rubio, Cruz, Jindal, and Haley represent are politicians of specific ethnic backgrounds who have spent their adult lives resisting the needs, wants, and views of the vast majority of their own groups! They are “traitors” to the best interests of groups that have long been ignored and ridiculed by Republican power figures!

So they are acting as “beards”, spreading false propaganda that the Republican Party is the party that people of their heritage should support in the future, but as long as they promote the hateful, divisive rhetoric and philosophies of the extremist right wing, they might continue in office as oddities, but they will not succeed in transforming people of minority heritage to large percentages becoming loyal to the Republican heritage of nativism and exclusionary behavior!

Future Potential Presidential Nomination Conflict In Several States For 2016

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It is never too early to think ahead about the Presidential Election of 2016, and as pundits start debating and arguing about potential candidacies for President, it turns out that several states could witness a battle for the nomination among their own office holders, as witness the following:

New York–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand–all Democrats

Florida—Former Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Rick Scott, and Senator Marco Rubio–all Republicans.

Virginia—Governor Bob McDonnell, Republican, and Senator Mark Warner, Democrat.

Massachusetts—Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren–both Democrats.

New Jersey—Governor Chris Christie, Republican, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Democrat,

Wisconsin—Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan–both Republicans.

Texas—Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz–both Republicans, and Julian Castro Mayor of San Antonio, Democrat

The question is whether if Hillary Clinton ran for President, would Governor Cuomo or Senator Gillibrand challenge her? But also, if Governor Cuomo ran for President, in the absence of Clinton, would Senator Gillibrand also contend?

Also, if former Governor Jeb Bush ran, would Governor Scott or Senator Rubio do the same? Or it could be put another way–would Jeb Bush run if Senator Rubio announced for President, since he has already taken the first step toward running by visiting Iowa, the first caucus state in 2016?

Also, if either Governor Patrick or Senator Warren ran, would the other run?

Also, if either Governor Perry or Senator Cruz ran, would the other enter the race?

And if either Governor Walker or Congressman Ryan announced, would the other run?

The Virginia, New Jersey and Texas cases, with office holders of both parties possible nominees, is more likely to occur, although the odds of Cory Booker or Julian Castro running in New Jersey and Texas likely will be based on Booker defeating Chris Christie in next year’s gubernatorial race, and Castro running for statewide office and winning, such as for Governor or Senator in 2014.

The Virginia rivalry between Republican Governor Bob McDonnell and Democratic former Governor and now Senator Mark Warner is a more likely reality.

There certainly are a lot of possibilities emerging, with the political “junkies” having a feast of speculation!

Tim Pawlenty Surges To Lead For Vice Presidential Nomination With Mitt Romney!

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has surged to the lead in speculation for the Vice Presidential nomination with Mitt Romney for the Presidential Election of 2012!

Pawlenty originally ran for President, but dropped out early, and is seen by many as having the fewest faults and shortcomings of anyone rumored to be on the list for Vice President.

Pawlenty comes across as friendly, decent, approachable, and as someone who apparently has no “skeletons in the closet”, although his stewardship as Minnesota Governor a few years ago has been challenged for its effectiveness, much like Romney’s in Massachusetts.

The two men get along very well, and Pawlenty has been an excellent advocate for Romney in recent months.

His being an evangelical Christian would help Mormon Romney in many areas of the South and Midwest.

But, his nomination, if it occurs, has several shortcomings:

No foreign policy experience

No military experience

First time since 1948 that both the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees were Governors, with little national exposure, with neither ever having been in national government in any way.

Certainly, Pawlenty will have to be vetted totally, but he seems to have an edge right now in the struggle for who will be Romney’s running mate.

One more thing: Pawlenty was on the short list for John McCain’s running mate in 2008, and would certainly have been a better choice than Sarah Palin!

It will be interesting to see if Pawlenty actually gains the nomination, and whether he is an asset to Mitt Romney in November, but don’t expect him to be able to carry his home state of Minnesota, or Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, or Iowa!

Women In American Political Offices By Election: 1917-Present

Ronald 1 Comment

On this 4th of July, it is a good time to recount how women have fared in American electoral politics.

As of today, 17 women are serving as US Senators, with a total of 39 women historically who have served in the upper chamber since 1922.

A total of 72 women are now serving in the US House of Representatives, with 229 women having served since 1917 in the chamber.

Presently, six women are serving as Governors of their states, with 35 having served in that capacity since 1925, and a maximum of nine women at the same time.

Two states, Iowa and Mississippi, have seen women only rise to a top position as Lieutenant Governor, rather than Governor, Senator or Congresswoman.

We have come a long way since 87-94 years ago when the first women reached elected office, but with 83 percent of office holders in Congress still male, and 88 percent of the Governors still males, and with women being a majority of the population (51 to 49) in the 2010 Census, it is certainly time for more women to run for public office, and to be involved in the governing of our nation in the future!

Would It Be Better To Have More Females In Political Power? The Answer Is Yes!

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Because of the Anthony Weiner scandal, on top of the scandals involving John Edwards and Arnold Schwarzenegger and Chris Lee, and further back to Larry Craig, Mark Sanford, John Ensign, David Vitter, Eliot Spitzer, Mark Foley, and Bill Clinton, and many others, the question arises: Would America be better with more female political leaders?

The answer is YES, as history tells us of very few cases of female political leaders misbehaving, at least in a sexual way, as women are wired differently.

It is not saying that women never become involved in sexual liaisons and scandals, but at least in political terms, it seems not to occur very often, with no outstanding cases that come easily to mind.

Women, of course, are a small part of American political life, although the numbers are growing. According to a Rutgers University Research Center, women hold only one out of every six seats in Congress, about one fourth of all seats in state legislatures, and six governorships and eight mayoralties of the top 100 cities.

Women who run and win office do so, according to research, to accomplish something, while men run to be somebody! According to the research studies, women in the House of Representatives introduce more bills, get more involved in legislative debates, and give more one minute speeches in daily session, in fact double the amount Congressmen give.

The argument is that men in politics are motivated by testosterone induced connections between sex and power, with the thought that powerful men attract women, while powerful women turn off men! Men are more reckless and more likely to feel invincible.

So with the growing role of women in politics, the emphasis should be on them being encouraged to run, and the American people overcoming sexual stereotypes, and start to accept powerful women such as Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Michele Bachmann and Marsha Blackburn as legitimate figures in the House of Representatives, and to see women Senators and Governors and Mayors as qualified for themselves, not to face discrimination because of their gender.

American politics would be far better with more of a balance between men and women, and get rid of the old myth, that in politics as in business, it is a man’s world!

The Decline Of The Senate As The Home Of Presidential Candidates

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It is hard to believe, but 2012 is the first year since 1900 where not one sitting Senator is running for the Presidential nomination of either major political party, not including incumbent Presidents and Vice Presidents.

Only one former Senator, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, is attempting the run for the White House, but with 47 Republican Senators in office, one would think that at least two or three would be seeking the GOP nomination, but that is not the case.

In the lifetime of the author, there have always been numerous Senators competing for the nomination of either party, as the comment often made is that the Senate consists of 100 individuals who envision themselves as future Presidents, and think they belong in the White House!

And yet, in actual fact, only three Presidents elected since 1900 have come directly from the US Senate–Warren G. Harding in 1920, John F. Kennedy in 1960, and Barack Obama in 2008.

Presidents Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon reached the Presidency after having been Vice President, following time in the Senate.

But otherwise, in reality, it is the office of Governor which has been the favored route, as with Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

Also, Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge reached the Presidency, after having served as Vice President, but first being Governors of their states.

At the same time, Senators who have lost the Presidency include Barry Goldwater, Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Al Gore and John Kerry.

Governors who have lost the Presidency include Charles Evans Hughes, James Cox, Al Smith, Alf Landon, Thomas E. Dewey, Adlai Stevenson, and Michael Dukakis.

But notice all of the Senatorial losers are since 1964, while all but Dukakis among losing Governors are before 1960!

So if you add up Senators and Governors who have run for President, we come up with the following statistical totals:

Senators elected–6
Senators defeated–6
Governors elected–8
Governors defeated–7

So since 1976, we have seen four Governors elected President, and only Obama coming from the Senate.

Is this an institutional factor, that the Senate is less outstanding and prestigious in its membership than it has been in the past? Or is it just a blip on the political spectrum, which will be reversed starting in 2016? We shall see!

Speculation About A Primary Challenge To Barack Obama: Would Such A Move Be Worthwhile?

Ronald 1 Comment

Discontent with President Obama has been growing among principled liberals and progressives who do not wish for the President to accept compromises with the opposition Republicans.

It is understandable that there can be outrage and upset, but when the question arises that someone might challenge Obama in the 2012 Democratic Presidential primaries, one has to wonder whether that would indeed be a smart move, and who would mount such a challenge!

It seems to the author of this blog that challenging Obama would be extremely unwise, as it would weaken the President and give the GOP extra ammunition after he won the nomination over his critic. History tells us that when a sitting President is challenged for renomination, he invariably wins the nomination, but is so weakened that he loses to the opposition party’s Presidential nominee in the Fall campaign! This happened to William Howard Taft after Theodore Roosevelt challenged him, and the same with Gerald Ford after Ronald Reagan opposed him, Jimmy Carter after Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown ran against him, and George HW Bush after Pat Buchanan competed against him!

As far as who would challenge Obama, there are not many choices, as there are fewer Democratic Senators and Governors, although a defeated office holder would have the freedom to run without a commitment to a political job!

It seems to the author that defeated Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin would probably be the strongest possible choice, as he is a great progressive voice, but his loss of his Senate seat would mark him as a loser in many people’s minds!

Trying to figure who else has the following and reputation to consider a serious challenge is a major undertaking, with no likelihood of a worthwhile, serious alternative!

Therefore, despite disillusionment with Barack Obama, the only real choice for Democrats, progressives and liberals is to fight to push Obama in their direction, but also to realize that a Republican victory in 2012 would be far worse than a “moderate, centrist” President that Barack Obama may represent by the time of the election in 2012!

The States And The Economy: Calamity Ahead! :(

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As conservatives and Tea Party activists are applauding the Republican takeover of the House, many new Republican governorships, and a gain in seats in the Senate, the American people are apparently unaware of the economic calamity that faces us in the next two years! 🙁

The emphasis is on cutting taxes in a totally irresponsible way, which will increase the national debt! But of course, the GOP answer is to cut spending as well, which will mean MASSIVE cuts in public jobs in the states ( teachers, firefighters, police officers, prison guards, librarians, park workers, other state and local government agencies), adding to the unemployment rates!

It also means a tremendous drop in public services–larger number of students in each classroom, fewer firefighters to respond to fires, fewer cops to fight crime, fewer staff for prisons, fewer hours of libraries and parks, fewer locations and hours for state and local government services, which will all worsen the quality of life for all Americans! 🙁

All of the states will have massive deficits, with the larger states in true crisis mode–California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey–and with all of the above states run by Republican governors, except California, New York and Illinois!

No stimulus money will be coming from the federal government, as the GOP will have the “power of the purse”, so we will see massive deprivation and poverty, and we will be on the road to far worse conditions than we are in at the moment! 🙁

This harsh, hard line approach in the states and the federal government will bring millions more unemployment and home foreclosures, and the potential is there for the Great Depression of the 1930s to be perceived as minor, compared to what might be happening over the next two years! 🙁

Also, the danger exists that if there is great human suffering and deprivation that we could see the horrors of the breakdown of law and order, and see bloodshed in the streets of America!

This is a human crisis of major proportions, and it is hard to see “the light at the end of the tunnel”, a term from the Vietnam War era! 🙁

The Good Side Of The Election Results: Democracy In Action!

Ronald 2 Comments

For those of us who are progressives and liberals, the results of the midterm elections are a time for reflection and reorganization.

It is obvious there is a need for mid course correction by the Obama Administration, and certainly the battle for progressive principles is re-energized by the triumph of the Republican party in taking over the House of Representatives, gaining many seats in the US Senate, and taking over a substantial number of governorships.

But while we assess the results, which the author will do over a period of time in detail, we can all agree that we are fortunate to have the great democracy that we have that allows the American people to register their feelings and change government policies and personnel on a regular basis.

Even if at times the results are seen as disappointing, we can be thankful that we live in a nation where government can be changed without bullets or violence in other forms.

So as we move to the uncertain future, let us all keep a sense of sobriety and balance as the challenges we all face present themselves. And the fight for social justice will continue no matter how much opposition may now exist to the progressive agenda!

The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!

What major states will the Democrats win?

New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet

Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:

Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire

If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:

Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes

Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:

Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell

These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:

Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!

The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!