Electoral College

The Hopelessness Of The GOP In The 2016 Presidential Election Is Clear Cut!

Republicans and conservatives live in illusion and fantasy, and their horrible Congressional performance—working against women’s rights, college students, minorities, the middle class, the poor, young people, the elderly, gays and lesbians, the environment, labor—will insure that they will never become the majority in a Presidential election for the long haul!

One would think that after having lost the popular vote for President five of the past six Presidential elections, that they would have realized the wrong of their ways, but instead, they are doubling down, appealing to the Religious Right, the Neoconservatives, the Social Conservatives, and to the top two percent, as if that is a winning strategy. Somehow, they think the dwindling white older population will sustain them in the long term, and in that belief, they are truly delusional!

If they had any common sense or brains, they would realize that the Democrats have won 18 states and the District of Columbia over the past six national elections since 1992, and a total electoral vote of 242 electoral votes, and NONE of these states are likely to be lost in the future to the right wing GOP! So the “Blue” states are:

Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
District Of Columbia
Illinois
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii

Plus, three other states voted Democratic five of the six national elections, a total of 15 electoral votes, bringing the total up to 257, 13 short of the 270 needed to win the White House, including:

New Hampshire (except in 2000)
New Mexico (except in 2004)
Iowa (except in 2004)

So the GOP, if it does not radically change its tune and quickly, will NOT win the Presidency any time in the next few generations, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote, and the dying off of the white conservative senior citizens who wish to prevent the future, and are failing at that long term, in Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and in the near future in Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Montana! The “Red” States are dwindling rapidly!

If Hillary Clinton Runs, Will ANY Democrat Challenge Her For The Nomination?

Based on public opinion polls and general perceptions that are out there, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016, if she chooses to want it and run for it.

The hints are that she will run, and polls indicate more than 60 percent want her as the nominee, and only Vice President Joe Biden is in double digits with 12-13 percent, and Andrew Cuomo the only other person to really have even a few percent.

IF she does not run, there is an open season, with Joe Biden having the advantage, but certainly not a “slam dunk” against Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, and several possible women candidates, including Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Amy Klobuchar.

It seems clear that Hillary Clinton, who even this author thought would not run, IS likely to run, and seemingly, be “crowned” the nominee, although there are skeptics who point out that she seemed in the same position in 2006-2008, and lost to a newcomer named Barack Obama.

But now , with extra experience as Secretary of State, it seems as if she is “unstoppable” if she chooses to make the run.

And the GOP is already starting to attack her, because they know it will be extremely difficult for ANY GOP nominee to stop her, as she could lose some of the states that Barack Obama won, and still win the election. The odds of Texas going to her, along with Georgia and Arizona, and the return of North Carolina to the Democratic column, seems possible, with growing Hispanic and Latino population and voting participants, and the likelihood that a higher percentage of women would vote for her, along with African Americans and young people, that how could any Republican nominee be able to come up with 270 electoral votes?

Sandra Day O’Connor And Second Thoughts on Bush V. Gore: 12 Plus Years Too Late!

Former Supreme Court Associate Justice Sandra Day O’Connor has indicated second thoughts about her vote in the infamous Bush V Gore case of December 2000, when the Court decided to intervene in the 2000 Presidential Election controversy between Al Gore and George W. Bush in Florida.

The Supreme Court decided that the vote recount ordered by the Florida State Supreme Court should be halted, giving the victory to Bush, and leading to his election by the miniscule margin of 537 votes, and making him the Electoral College winner by 271-266.

Now, O’Connor has expressed regret that the Court did something it had no precedent to do, decide the election results in a closely competitive contest by far less than one percent of the vote. Where does it state in the Constitution that the Supreme Court should so intervene? The state Supreme Court should have been the final determinant, and possibly, Bush would have won anyway, but at least the Supreme Court would not have done what was a revolutionary precedent!

It could be that O’Connor feels guilt because she is well aware of the disasters that occurred under George W. Bush, and the beginning of the attempt to change his historical image, through the opening of his Presidential Library this week in Dallas, Texas.

We will never know whether Al Gore would have been a better President, but it is hard to believe that he would have been worse than Bush turned out to be!

The “Red” South Becoming More “Blue” Rapidly For Presidential Elections

The Republican Party has depended on the South for much of its electoral vote strength in the past thirty years, but rapidly, the movement from “Red” to “Blue” is emerging, especially in looking to the Presidential contests of the future.

Barack Obama was able to win Florida and Virginia both times he was on the ballot, and also won North Carolina the first time.

But Texas and Georgia are perceived as moving toward the Democrats by 2020, if not 2016, which would mean that the five largest states in the South in electoral votes would have 111 electoral votes likely to be in the Democratic camp, while the Republicans would only have 49 electoral votes from the other six “Old South” states of Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi!

So the GOP has a major problem, as if it loses the South, two to one in electoral votes, and already has lost the Northeast, the Pacific Coast, and the Upper Midwest, what is left for it to grow into a major challenger to the Democratic Party in the future?

2016 Presidential Election Could Be Decided By Texas And/Or Florida

At this time, in February 2013, it seems very likely that Texas and Florida, the second and fourth largest states in population and electoral votes, will decide which party will win the White House in 2016.

The Democrats have a good chance to win Texas, as it is starting to turn “Blue”, with the growing Hispanic and Latino vote in that state with 38 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton, in particular, would have an excellent chance to win the Lone Star State if she ends up as the Democratic Presidential nominee, but even other Democrats would have a chance to win .

At the same time, with Florida (29 electoral votes) having gone to Barack Obama twice, the Democrats would have a good opportunity to win it next time as well, particularly with Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden as their nominee.

With the other large populated states in the hands of the Democrats for sure (California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan), it is these two states that will decide the election, although if the Democrats can win everything they won under Obama, they do not need Texas. But if they also win Texas, then they would have a literal landslide in the Electoral College, with 370 electoral votes!

So that is why Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush are the best nominees the GOP can run, with a good shot at winning the Sunshine State, and keeping control of Texas, with its Hispanic-Latino vote and the Bush family connection with the Lone Star State.

But again, IF the Democrats just win all the 26 states they won in 2012, or even if they lose some, they will still win the White House. But these two large states are where much of the action will likely be in 2016!

Presidential-Vice Presidential Relationships Rarely Warm

When one looks at the relationships between Presidents and Vice Presidents historically, it is clear that most Presidents look at their Vice Presidents and see their own mortality; often see the Vice President as a rival; often have disdain for the Vice President; and often do not support the Vice President in his Presidential ambitions to follow the President in office.

Examples of the above abound:

George Washington ignored John Adams, and Adams lamented that he was in an office that had no influence or respect.

John Adams and Thomas Jefferson were at constant odds, being of different political parties, and elected together by the early quirks of the Electoral College, later resolved by the 12th Amendment to the Constitution in 1804.

Thomas Jefferson literally refused to recognize Aaron Burr, after Burr tried to steal the Presidency from him in 1800, with Burr’s contention that he and Jefferson had ended up in a “tie” vote in the Electoral College, forcing Alexander Hamilton, a rival of both Jefferson and Burr to intervene and call for support of Jefferson, which led to the gun duel between Hamilton and Burr in 1804, and Hamilton’s tragic death.

John Quincy Adams discovered that John C. Calhoun was undermining him, and Calhoun switched sides and ran with Andrew Jackson in 1828.

However, Jackson and Calhoun became bitter rivals, and the Nullification Crisis over the protective tariff, with Calhoun enunciating the doctrine of states rights, nullification, interposition, and secession almost led to civil war, prevented by the intervention of Henry Clay, but only after Jackson threatened to hang Calhoun, a threat that could not be ignored, since Jackson had killed several opponents in gun duels.

Abraham Lincoln hardly dealt with his first term Vice President, Hannibal Hamlin, and then “dumped” him, for Andrew Johnson, someone he hardly knew.

When Theodore Roosevelt decided not to run for another term in 1908, he ignored his own Vice President, Charles Fairbanks, and backed his Secretary of War, William Howard Taft.

Woodrow Wilson gave little concern to the role of his Vice President, Thomas Marshall, and when Wilson suffered a stroke in 1919, he did not intervene to prevent his wife from preventing Marshall from visiting him, and ascertaining the state of his health, or allow him to take over Presidential authority.

Franklin D. Roosevelt ignored his three Vice Presidents—John Nance Garner, Henry A. Wallace, and Harry Truman. This led Garner to say the Vice Presidency was not worth a pitcher of “warm spit”. Wallace was allowed to “hang in the wind” over his public statements on civil rights, and be “dumped” on the demand of Southern Democrats in 1944. Harry Truman was not informed of anything, including the atomic bomb project, in his brief Vice Presidency.

Dwight D. Eisenhower had a strong dislike for his Vice President, Richard Nixon, as shown by his original plan to “dump” Nixon in 1956; his lukewarm support of Nixon in 1960; and his having problems remembering Nixon as a potential future nominee in 1964. At the end, however, Ike witnessed his grandson, David, marry Nixon’s younger daughter, Julie, and was supportive of Nixon in his last year of life, the first year of the Nixon Presidency.

John F. Kennedy failed to use the talents of Lyndon B. Johnson, his Vice President, to a great extent due to the hatred of his brother, Robert Kennedy, for LBJ. Robert Kennedy went out of his way to embarrass and humiliate Johnson in every way possible.

Johnson abused his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, once he realized that Humphrey was critical of his Vietnam War policies. He threatened to leave Humphrey out of his cabinet meetings, and forced him to speak up for the war, which undermined Humphrey’s own Presidential campaign in 1968. And secretly, because Humphrey started to veer from support of the administration policies late in the campaign, Johnson hoped for a victory of Richard Nixon.

Richard Nixon utilized his Vice President, Spiro Agnew for political gain, but showed little respect for him, and let him “hang in the wind” when Agnew was forced out of the Vice Presidency in 1973. And Nixon picked Gerald Ford as his successor Vice President under the 25th Amendment, thinking that this insured that Nixon would not be impeached and be removed from office.

Gerald Ford had a strong respect for Nelson Rockefeller, who he selected as his Vice President, but yet “dumped” him for Bob Dole in the 1976 Presidential race.

Ronald Reagan was never close to George H. W. Bush, who had been his chief rival for the 1980 Presidential nomination, and never invited the Bushes to a private dinner at the White House, although he utilized Bush’s expertise in foreign policy and intelligence, as Bush had been head of the CIA.

Bush did not care for Dan Quayle very much, and considered “dumping” him in 1992 over Quayle’s embarrassing flubs. Quayle was given less involvement in the administration than his recent predecessors, and when he tried for the Presidential nomination in 1996, Bush did not back him in any way.

Bill Clinton was closer to Al Gore, but their friendship and collaboration suffered greatly during the scandal over Monica Lewinsky, and the pursuant impeachment trial. Gore decided not to ask Clinton, who remained popular, to work for him in the last days of the 2000 Presidential campaign. After his defeat, there were recriminations between Gore and Clinton over who had been responsible for Gore’s defeat.

George W. Bush relied on his Vice President, Dick Cheney, a lot in the first term, but became estranged from Cheney in the second term over the Scooter Libby scandal and in other ways, as Bush asserted himself much more, making clear he did not need Cheney as much as in the first term.

With all of the above examples of estrangement, or lack of closeness of Presidents with their Vice Presidents, there are two shining examples of very close, warm relationships between two Presidents and their Vice Presidents.

These would be Jimmy Carter with Walter Mondale, and Barack Obama with Joe Biden.

Carter and Mondale were the closest team in American history, with Carter allowing Mondale to share just about every decision in a way no Vice President, before or since, was able to do, and they remained close personal friends, for what is now the all time record of 32 PLUS years out of the Presidency, the longest lasting team in American history, with Carter now 88 plus and Mondale just passing 85, and both still in good health. No sense of any rift has ever existed between the two men, and their relationship was the smoothest ever, a lot of it due to Carter’s lack of insecurity about his Vice President, a testimonial to the former President!

Also, every indication is that Obama and Biden have as close a relationship, but with Biden nearly a generation older, while Carter and Mondale are less than four years apart in age. It seems as if there might be some issues between Obama and Biden, but that will have to be left to the future to find out. Also, a question arises as to how Obama will handle a possible competition for the next Presidential nomination between Biden and Hillary Clinton, both of whom have been crucial to his Presidency’s success so far.

So the Presidential-Vice Presidential relationships have been almost always far from warm and close, with only the two exceptions mentioned above.

This would be an excellent topic for a future scholarly study!

Today An Ironic Day: First Electoral College Election And Day Of Formation Of Confederate States Of America

On this day in 1789, George Washington was elected by the Electoral College as the first President of the United States under the Constitution.

Also on this day, in 1861, delegates from six states (South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana) met in Montgomery, Alabama to form the Confederate States of America, a move to form a government that was designed to break up the Union that George Washington represented, when he was elected leader of the nation 72 years earlier.

Texas joined shortly after, and after Fort Sumter, the upper South (Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas) joined as well, and the Civil War, the greatest tragedy of the nation’s history commenced, leading to the death of approximately 620,000 soldiers, two percent of the entire nation.

It is upsetting to hear talk of similar desire of some to rise up against the federal government, as if nothing has been learned in the century and a half since the Civil War!

A Potential Unbeatable Democratic Ticket For 2016—Hillary Clinton And Joe Biden!

It has recently been suggested by some political observers that a truly unbeatable Presidential ticket for 2016 would be Hillary Clinton for President and Joe Biden for Vice President.

Upon first thought, the idea sounds unbelievable, and many wonder if either or both will even run, but assuming they both are interested, the question arises whether they would be willing to fight each other, come into combat with each other, when both are great friends.

Both Clinton and Biden are competitive and ambitious, but to imagine the knock down, drag out fight between them, is hard to imagine.

Yes, Joe Biden wants to be President, but being already 74 in 2016, and knowing that Hillary Clinton would break a “glass ceiling”, as the first woman President finally and belatedly, it is hard to imagine him unwilling to sacrifice his ambitions to give her the chance, and to be a willing “soldier” willing to help her, and be by her side for another eight years as Vice President!

Were anything untoward to happen to Hillary, Joe would be there to take over, but even if he did not ever become President, he would have served a theoretical 16 years as Vice President, an amazing record, and be in on all the important decisions, treasured for his wisdom and counsel by both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and giving the nation his talents and abilities, with the recognition that he would become regarded as the most powerful, influential Vice President in American history!

And there is no ticket that the Republican Party could run, which would match the experience, the breadth of knowledge, and the talents and abilities of these two public servants, who have already had a massive effect on our country!

With the Electoral College situation as it presently is, is there anyone who can come up with a scenario where any Republican ticket could possibly gain a majority, in a nation with growing Latino-Hispanic participation, and Arizona, Texas and Georgia likely to tip “Blue” in the future?

Poll On Republicans: 26 Percent Positive, 49 Percent Negative

A new poll shows Republicans at a low point in popularity, only gaining 26 percent support, while 49 percent see the party as negative.

Also, 64 percent of Republicans believe Barack Obama is hiding his past, with many believing the “Birther” theory that he was born in Kenya, and is not an American citizen. Also, 19 percent believe Obama stole the 2012 election.

What can one say after hearing these poll numbers? The Republican Party has become so right wing, so out of touch with reality, that it will believe anything negative about Obama, and has made clear that they will do everything possible to block any successes by the President on any subject, including the economy.

With their inability to gain majority or near majority support of women, Hispanics and Latinos, Asian Americans, African Americans, young people, gays and lesbians, labor, environmentalists, and of 60 percent of the electoral votes of the nation, the Republican Party needs to change its tune, but looks as if they are doubling down on their obstinacy, obstructionism, and negativism.

This means further defeats, and possible dissolution of the Republican Party after 160 years of existence, including glorious times, sadly now a faint memory!

Right Wing Lunatics Never Let Up On Aim To Destroy Barack Obama!

The wing nut right wing never stops attacking Barack Obama!

They claim that Obama is a Muslim President, despite the fact that the President has been responsible for the killing of more Muslims than George W. Bush. Obama has utilized the drone program in Afghanistan effectively, and has been able to end the lives of many terrorists, including Osama Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, but it is never enough!

Glenn Beck, the lunatic, has now said that if any of his staff members mention Obama’s name in the next four years, they will be fired. He plans to avoid mentioning Obama at all, but if so, how will he continue to make his millions as a demagogue dividing America, since his whole living has been based on destroying Obama with his reckless rhetoric?

And there has been a plan by the far right to try to prevent the Electoral College from counting electoral votes, but that was done in early December in all of the state capitols, and the joint session of Congress today will see Vice President Joe Biden open up 51 envelopes and announce the results of the Electoral College. And even if one or two electors are disloyal, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be declared the winners of the election, since their margin of victory in electoral votes is 62 votes more than the 270 needed to win!

And World Net Daily, an extremist, conspiratorial news website, has suggested that Chief Justice John Roberts announce that he will refuse to swear in the President for another term on Inauguration Day. In actual fact, Roberts will, assuredly, do no such thing, as he worries about his own reputation and that of the Supreme Court, and is not about to destroy his own image and reputation, which has been promoted by his decisive vote in the ObamaCare case in June of 2012!

But even if by some fluke, Roberts went crazy, it is not a requirement that the Chief Justice must give the oath to the President. ANY judge or Justice can do so, and one can be certain that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg or Justice Stephen Breyer or even Justice Anthony Kennedy would take on the responsibility if Roberts was to go off the deep end and destroy his whole career by refusing to do so.

And, finally, Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in on Air Force One by a woman federal district court judge, Sara Hughes, on November 22, 1963, after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, so again, it does not even have to be a Supreme Court Justice who swears in the President.

It is clear the right wing lunatics will stop at nothing to attack and destroy Barack Obama, but while they make money off gullible and stupid people, it does not change the reality that Barack Obama is the choice of the American people, has accomplished a lot in his first term, and despite constant barriers, will achieve a lot in his second term, and go down as one of our better Presidents in American history!