Democratic Presidential Nominee

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

Ronald 16 Comments

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

The Maine-Nebraska Split Electoral Vote Nightmare And The Presidential Election Of 2020

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Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that have allowed, by state legislative action, a split in the electoral vote for President.

Maine adopted this concept in 1972 and Nebraska in 1992, and a split has occurred once in each state.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd district of Nebraska (Omaha and its suburbs), the first and only time that Nebraska has seen a Democratic electoral vote since 1964.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, which covers most of the state away from Portland, Augusta, and nearly coastal areas, with that being the first time a Republican won an electoral vote since 1988.

So if Donald Trump won every state he gained in 2016, except Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would win the Electoral College no matter what the popular vote majority of the Democratic Presidential nominee, by a 270-268 margin. But if he lost the 2nd district of Maine, the Electoral College would be 269-269.

The same would occur if the Democratic Presidential nominee won the 2nd district of Nebraska as Obama did in 2008, as then the Electoral College would be 269-269.

This would be a true constitutional crisis beyond any other Presidential election in American history!

A Nightmare Scenario: Trump Loses Popular Vote By 6 Million, But Wins Electoral College 270-268

Ronald 14 Comments

Imagine a nightmare scenario:

The Democratic Presidential nominee wins California by an additional one million votes, and gains 800,000 votes in Texas, and wins extra popular votes elsewhere, winning the national popular vote by 6 million, but not gaining Texas in the Electoral College.

The Democratic Presidential nominee wins Michigan and Pennsylvania from Donald Trump, winning 36 electoral votes.

But Donald Trump has a chance to win New Mexico (5), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4) in the Electoral College. But let’s assume Trump does NOT win these states.

Donald Trump wins Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida by small margins, winning 89 electoral votes.

Donald Trump wins the Electoral College 270-268!

So, in summary, the only change under this scenario is that Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, but wins every other state he won in 2016, and he wins by the barest margin!

Early Speculation On Democratic Presidential Ticket For 2020

Ronald 2 Comments

Here we are in mid March 2018, and already, speculation is beginning as to who might be on the Democratic Presidential ticket for 2020.

This is a fun game, with no likelihood that it is truly a forecast of the future.

However, right now, those on the left of the Democratic Party dream of a ticket of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, both who face reelection in November, but seem unlikely to have a serious challenge for their Senate seats.

But to believe that two far left Democrats can together be elected seems to this observer to be a pipe dream, not to be taken seriously.

And putting a 79 and 71 year old in 2020 on the ticket is a bit much, as even having one candidate in his or her 70s is seen by many observers as a problem.

Consider that Sanders would be 83 after one term in office, and Warren would be 75, and it just does not add up as likely to have both of them, or even maybe one of them on the ticket.

A second scenario has former Vice President Joe Biden running with Massachusetts Congressman Joe Kennedy III or Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, a more centrist ticket.

But Biden will be 78 two weeks after the 2020 election, so would be 82 at the end of a first term. There are rumors that he might declare he would only serve one term, and let Joe Kennedy or Amy Klobuchar be next in line ready to succeed, as after one term as Vice President, Kennedy would be 44 in 2024, and Klobuchar would be 64. The appeal particularly of a Joe-Joe ticket is very high right now.

A third scenario would be Joe Kennedy III, at age 40, and only having served in the House of Representatives, running for President, with the famous Kennedy name behind him, and Senator Kamala Harris of California or New jersey Senator Cory Booker or former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro of Texas or his twin brother Joaquin Castro, Texas Congressman, as Vice Presidential running mate for the young Kennedy, with Harris being 57, Booker being 51, and the two Castro brothers being 46 in 2020.

This third potential combination would bring youth and diversity to the ticket in a rapidly changing America.

This is only the beginning of the speculation for 2020.