Competitive States

A Truly Divided Nation With No Sign Of Compromise!

Ronald 61 Comments

As America votes in off year elections in just a few states, the recognition is that America is a truly divided nation with no sign of compromise, as we move toward the commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the American Republic, with every indication of Fascist authoritarianism being dominant under Donald Trump!

At present, there are 25 Trump states and 19 Anti Trump states, with only six states really competitive, both in support or opposition to Trump, and in percentages of seats in the House of Representatives.

In the 25 Trump states, 22 of them have Republican governors, and all of the state legislatures and Senate seats, as well.

Only six states really remain “competitive”—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, a total of 77 Electoral College votes.

In Electoral Votes, the Democrats have 226 from the 19 Anti Trump states and the District of Columbia. The 25 Trump states have 235 electoral votes.

Also, Nebraska and Maine have divided electoral votes, with the Second District of Nebraska often having one electoral vote going to Democrats and the Second District of Maine often having one electoral vote going to Republicans, so they balance each other.

The states that have strongly gone Republican, while formerly competitive, are Texas, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

With Texas and Florida still gaining population growth, the likelihood is that both states will have more electoral votes after reapportionment in 2032, which makes the Democrats facing a massive challenge in future elections.

And California, Illinois, and New York are likely to lose Electoral votes, necessitating the need for Democrats to win the six “swing states” that have been in play, but won recently by Republicans, as in 2024!

Six Cities For Democrats and Four For Republicans Competing For 2016 National Conventions!

Ronald 5 Comments

The bids are in for the two national conventions of the major political parties competing for the Presidency in 2016.

The Democrats have bids from Birmingham, Alabama; Cleveland, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York City (Brooklyn); and Phoenix, Arizona.

The Republicans have bids from Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas, Texas: Denver, Colorado; and Kansas City, Missouri.

It would be interesting if both parties chose Cleveland, as the parties have, occasionally, chosen the same city for their conventions, but somehow, this author does not see either party actually choosing Cleveland.

What makes the most sense is to choose a city in a state that is competitive, or significant enough to be considered possibly a win for the political party involved.

Going on that assumption, it makes no sense for Birmingham, Alabama to be chosen by the Democrats.

New York City (Brooklyn) would be a popular favorite, but New York is guaranteed to the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2016.

Philadelphia would be a good choice, in a state which could be competitive, although the Democrats are a heavy favorite to win the state, so it seems unlikely as the choice that will be made.

So that leaves Columbus, Ohio and Phoenix, Arizona as the remaining choices, as both states are highly competitive, but with Ohio more likely to go Democratic, and being, in many ways, the key swing state.

So the prediction of this blogger is that Columbus will be the host for the Democratic National Convention, the capital city of the state, and a better choice, overall, than Cleveland would be.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, the best choice, in the opinion of the blogger, is Denver, Colorado, a true swing state, but Dallas would be the backup if the GOP wants to send the message just how important Texas is, as the danger of an eventual move toward becoming a “blue” state becomes more possible as the years go by.

So the emotional favorite for this author for the Democrats is his home of New York, which he left for Florida 25 years ago, but the likelihood that Columbus will be chosen, with a backup of Phoenix.

While the author has no emotional favorite for the Republicans, the likely emotional choice for them would be Dallas, but with the likelihood that Denver will be chosen, and doubtful for Kansas City and, particularly, for Cleveland!

We shall see how accurate the author is in his predictions of Columbus for the Democrats and Denver for the Republicans!