Month: November 2018

Three Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders In 2020 From Virginia: Terry McAuliffe, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner

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As the 2020 Presidential campaign begins, there are three potential candidates who come from Virginia, which has become a very “Blue” state.

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe has hinted he plans to run. He is probably the most controversial of the three Virginians, having been the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the first George W. Bush term, as well as Chair of the Hillary Clinton 2008 campaign for President, and co-chairman of the reelection campaign of President Bill Clinton in 1996. He is certainly the most hard nosed politician of the three Virginians.

Senator Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate, may run, but does not seem drawn to the idea of running at this point. Many observers feel that Kaine did not help Hillary Clinton, and was a lackluster campaigner. Also, Kaine is seen as moderate in a party moving to the left rapidly.

Senator Mark Warner, also seen as a moderate, and about the wealthiest member of Congress, has long been thought of as a potential candidate, and he has been very active in pursuing the Russian Collusion investigation in the Senate, as the ranking member or Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Interesting point is that all three Virginians have been Governors of their state, and all three have been seen as successes in that position, leading to Kaine and Warner being elected to the Senate.

But none of these three seem at this point, even if they announce, to be likely to win the Democratic nomination.

The one who might have the best chance is Warner, but although he is a more dynamic person than Kaine, it still seems unlikely that he will get very far in the various primaries and caucuses in 2020.

But of course no one can be sure what will happen in any Presidential campaign, so it will be interesting to see if any of these three Virginia politicians move forward toward the nomination in 2020.

Five Or Even Six Potential California Presidential Candidates In 2020: Kamala Harris, Eric Garcetti, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown

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California may have up to five or six Democratic Presidential candidates competing in the primaries and caucuses in 2020.

Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and Congressman Eric Swalwell all are expected to announce in the coming months.

Additionally, entrepreneur and political activist Tom Steyer has been promoting the impeachment of Donald Trump in the past year, and the Los Angeles resident is believed to be planning to run as well.

And some think even newly minted Governor Gavin Newsom might also decide to announce for President.

And get this, even outgoing Governor Jerry Brown, age 80 now, might even, it is rumored, decide to try for the Presidency for a fourth time, as he did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

California is one out of every eight people, and with the California primary slated for March 3, 2020, it could be a Californian who wins the primary, and gets the largest portion of delegates out of a total larger than any other state.

So to ignore California is to do so at one’s own risk.

Two Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders For 2020 From The Midwest: Sherrod Brown And Amy Klobuchar

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The importance of the Midwest in presidential elections has always been something to realize, and ever more so after Hillary Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa in 2016.

Many think had she chosen Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, then she might have won those states, along with Pennsylvania, enough to swing the Electoral College.

So, therefore, much attention is being paid to two Midwestern Democratic Senators, both easily reelected in the Midterm Elections of 2018, as potential Democratic Presidential nominees.

One is the same Sherrod Brown, who never thought of himself as a future President, but is now seriously thinking about it. He is giving interviews where he makes clear that he is seriously considering a run for the White House, and is seen as someone that should not be ignored as a serious candidate if he runs.

Brown has been a member of the Senate for 12 years, and before that, of the House of Representatives for 14 years, after having served as Ohio Secretary of State for eight years, and in the Ohio legislature for eight years before that.

He is an unabashed liberal who has had appeal for the working class, something many Democrats have had trouble with, although Joe Biden has been of similar vein. Brown would be 68 in 2020, a full decade younger than Joe Biden, and Ohio has been a crucial state in presidential elections, with six Ohioans elected President between 1868 and 1923, and Ohio being a state every elected Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln through Donald Trump.

Also reelected to a third term in the Senate is Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a inheritor of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor tradition of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone. Klobuchar was Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney from 1998 to 2006,and gained a reputation as a tough prosecutor, before her election to the Senate. She has sponsored or cosponsored 98 pieces of legislation, more than any other Senator. She is seen as bipartisan, able to work “across the aisle”, and has a good public image, but not as controversial as Elizabeth Warren or Kirsten Gillibrand, other women thought to be likely to announce for President.

This author has particular feelings of support of Klobuchar for the Presidency, and think she has an excellent chance of being the Democratic nominee for President in 2020, and is more likely to gain support of white working class males, more than Warren, Gillibrand, or Kamala Harris of California. She would be 60 years of age at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020.

Both Brown and Klobuchar are solid possibilities for the Presidency, and are from the “heartland”, rather than the Atlantic and Pacific Coastlines.

So when assessing the upcoming Democratic Presidential race, do NOT dismiss Sherrod Brown nor Amy Klobuchar.

Keep Top Leadership Of House Democrats Now, But They Need To Step Aside After Presidential Election Of 2020 For Newer Generation

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There is a rebellion in the House Democratic majority by newly elected Progressives who want a different House Speaker, House Majority Leader, and House Majority Whip.

This is tempting, but unwise, as it was Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and James Clyburn who brought about the victory of Democrats in the Midterm Elections of 2018, and everyone knows that Nancy Pelosi, despite her faults and shortcomings, was a master at raising money and promoting Democrats across the nation.

We also know that Nancy Pelosi was the best Speaker since Thomas “Tip” O’Neill from 1977-1987, and accomplished the best House performance in 2009-2010 in decades,including getting the passage of ObamaCare, the Affordable Care Act. Her experience and skills are priceless at this time.

On the other hand, all three Democratic leaders will have reached the age of 80 by 2020.

So the solution is let these three leaders who brought about the Democratic revival stay as leaders for the next Congress, but with a declaration that they will groom other younger, progressive types to replace them in the next Congress, the 117th, in 2021-2022, and more influence over legislation

Key committee assignments and other House leadership positions below the top three leaders need to be given to people who have shown their ability to lead, such as Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell and Karen Bass of California, Joe Kennedy III of Massachusetts, Tim Ryan and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, and others as well.

It is time for the House leadership to agree to their own term limits, but usher in the future with their smart, experienced leadership for now, and groom others for such leadership in two years.

The key thing, above all, is to insure that the House Democrats show accomplishments in the next two years, and are, therefore, able to keep control in 2020, and hopefully, with a winning Democratic Presidential nominee in the 2020 Presidential election, expand their numbers,and elect a new House Speaker, Majority Leader and Majority Whip two years from now, and applaud the efforts of the veterans who made them successful in 2018 and again in 2020.

Trend Toward Older First Term Members Of Congress–Mitt Romney And Donna Shalala As Examples Of Trend

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A trend that has developed lately is that some new members of Congress are older than usually at their swearing in, as compared to previous times.

We have two such examples in the 116th Congress.

Newly minted Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, will be two months short of age 72 in January. He lost the race for a Senate seat in Massachusetts to Senator Ted Kennedy in the Midterm Elections of 1994, 24 years ago, but now will be in the Senate a quarter century later.

Donna Shalala, former Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001, after being President of Hunter College from 1980-1988 and Chancellor of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, from 1988-1993, was then President of the University of Miami in Florida from 2001-2015, and President of the Clinton Foundation from 2015-2017. She is now the new Congresswoman in the Miami, Florida district that was occupied by Ileana Ros Lehtinen from 1989 through 2018. It earlier had been the seat of the revered Claude Pepper from 1962-1999.

That seat in South Florida is an especially sacred seat in a sense, and Shalala will be one month short of age 78 when she joins the House of Representatives.

It Is Now Clear Donald Trump Will Face Fierce Opposition From Conservatives And Critical Republicans For 2020 Presidential Nomination

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It is now clear that Donald Trump will not have a waltz to the 2020 Republican Presidential nomination.

The long term future of the Republican Party is at stake, after the disaster of the Midterm Elections of 2018.

Mike Pence can claim the Republicans are in good shape, but he is delusional, and we are on the way to a repudiation of not just Donald Trump, but his Vice President, even if by some chance, he becomes President before the Presidential Election of 2020.

It is assured that a President Pence would not be able to keep the office, and would be easily defeated in 2020, as is the case with Donald Trump.

So the question is where the Republican Party turns in planning its future.

The number of potential candidates is growing.

It includes those few who have had the smarts to speak out against Donald Trump, as anyone else is a public relations disaster.

So forget such Senators as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, or Lindsey Graham, all of whom have lost all credibility.

The list, therefore, only includes newly minted Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, and outgoing Senators Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, and outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

It could also include two Republican Governors in “blue” states that easily were elected in 2014 and reelected in 2018—Larry Hogan of Maryland and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts–although neither Hogan, who has term limits in Maryland, and Baker, who has no term limits in Massachusetts–has publicly expressed interest in running for the White House.

But if the Republican Party wishes to survive long term, none of these, except possibly John Kasich, are seen as likely to have much effect in stopping Trump.

The one and only reasonable choice other than Kasich is a principled conservative of a younger generation who might inspire young people and educated people to return to the Republican Party.

That candidate is Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, who would be 48, but nearing 49, by the time of the inauguration in January 2021.

If he were to run in 2020, with Nikki Haley as his Vice Presidential running mate, both only a month apart in age, it could be a winning team.

Democrats Won Much Bigger Victory Than Thought On Election Night, Could Be Transformative For Long Term

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As more seats are flipping in California, at least four of the 14 previously Republican held seats in the House of Representatives, it looks as if the “Blue Wave” is larger than what occurred for the Republicans in 2010 and 1994, and already is the most for Democrats since 1974 after the Richard Nixon resignation, and the highest percentage voting since 1966, when the Republicans gained seats under Lyndon B. Johnson, in the midst of the Vietnam War escalation.

It is now likely that the Democrats will have gained about 40 seats in the House of Representatives, but also significant are the gains of Democrats in the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and the gaining of a majority of House seats in Arizona.

It is now possible to say that Suburbia has become more likely to leave the Republicans behind long term, and join urban areas against the constant support of the rural areas of many states for the Republicans.

White rural America is fighting the tide toward urban and suburban educated people, women, racial and ethic minorities, young people, and independents who are abandoning the Republican Party.

It is clear that the Trump Republican Party is losing out in the long run, just as occurred in California in the 1990s when Republican Governor Pete Wilson worked to pass discriminatory legislation against Hispanics in the state, with the result being overwhelming Democratic control in the state legislature, in state executive offices, and in Congress, where the monopoly of Democrats has become a flood.

We can now imagine a turn in the next decade of Arizona, Texas, and Georgia toward support of the Democrats in Presidential elections by 2024 and 2028 for sure, and once Texas goes that direction, the Presidency is safe in the hands of Democrats.

Already, the Northeast and New England are Democratic strongholds, and the Midwest now has Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota controlled by Democratic Governors in time for reapportionment of seats after the Census of 2020. And in the Mountain West, we see Democrats doing very well in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and having the first Democratic Senator in Arizona in more than thirty years. The Pacific Coast of California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are also solid.

So even though Ohio and Florida were not bright spots for the Democrats, the old adage that Ohio matters may not matter, and realize that the Buckeye State had a split personality on Election Day, as Democrat Sherrod Brown won an overwhelming victory, even though Republican Mike Dewine defeated Richard Cordray.

Florida is not yet settled at this writing, as a recount is going on, but it could be that Florida will be seen as an outlier, and despite their being the third largest state in population and electoral votes, if and when Texas goes “blue”, and joins California and New York, it might not matter what happens in Florida.

2018–The Year Of The Women Taking Over American Government

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Hillary Clinton may have lost the Electoral College to Donald Trump on the way to a massive popular vote margin of 2.85 million popular votes in 2016.

Now, two years later, it is clear that women have reacted against Donald Trump, and the Republican Party faces doom unless they repudiate his misogyny rapidly.

The gender gap in voting between men and women is dramatic, has widened, and will affect society in the short run and the long run.

There will be more women in the 116th Congress, with at least 122 women, and about 80 percent of them being Democrats.

States that never had a woman Senator will have them, including Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada.

There are going to be more women of color, including more African American women, Latino women, Asian American women, Native American women, Muslim women, Hindu women, as well as gay women and younger women in Congress.

There will be nine or ten women governors, up from six, including in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and if a miracle occurs in Georgia, Stacey Abrams, a race not yet decided.

And we are about to see the likelihood of four women Senators announcing for President in the coming months on the Democratic side—Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Kamala Harris of California, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

Donald Trump Goes Off The Rails After Massive Repudiation By Voters On Election Day

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Donald Trump went off the rails more than usual after the massive repudiation by the voters on Election Day.

It seems impossible for Donald Trump to behave in words or actions during any 24 hour cycle.

After Tuesday’s results, Trump has done the following:

Sent thousands of military personnel to the US Mexico border, claiming wrongfully that Central American migrants, mostly women and children escaping violence and personal threats are carrying leprosy and smallpox, but not providing decent living conditions for soldiers waiting for a “caravan” which is not really such, and is no danger to the American national security, and wasting an estimated $200 to $300 million in the process.

Insulted several black women journalists at the press conference on Wednesday, including the renowned April Ryan.

Engaged in degrading behavior toward Jim Acosta of CNN, and suspended his right to participate in future press conferences, and his Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders created a fake video to try to demonstrate that Acosta was aggressive with a female Presidential aide.

Fired Jeff Sessions as Attorney General, and hired a flawed, biased Matthew Whitaker as Acting Attorney General, instead of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, a move to destroy the Robert Mueller investigation.

Went to the commemoration of the centennial of the end of the First World War, and insulted veterans by not going to a cemetery outside of Paris because of the rain, and then went to a Paris ceremony separately, and left early from the events of the weekend to return home.

Promoted nationalism, which caused the First World War and the Second World War, and was repudiated by French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for a European Army to protect the continent from possible threats in the future, including Russia, China, and, get this, the United States under Donald Trump.

Condemned California for the horrendous forest fires that have devastated that state, and threatened to cut federal funding to deal with that issue, showing no understanding of nature and science.

Trump has insulted our European allies, veterans, firefighters, and our journalists who report the truth to keep us free and democratic.

Trump has displayed ever further his total lack of knowledge and understanding of the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, diplomacy, history and science.

He has also shown yet again that he is a misogynist, a racist, a nativist, a super nationalist xenophobe, a threat to American democracy and the rule of law.

One Hundred Years Since End Of The First World War: Nothing Learned From Sacrifices Of That War, And Danger Of Another World War

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It has been precisely one hundred years, a full century, since the “Great War”, the First World War, ended on November 11, 1918. About 18 million military and civilians died in that war, as well as about 125,000 Americans, the second highest loss of life in America after the Civil War, and until the Second World War surpassed it, at least doubling the American loss of life in the First World War.

What Woodrow Wilson called “the war to end all wars” did anything but that, leading within a generation to the Second World War, followed by many other regional wars, and the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union from 1945-1991.

Now we have the age of world wide terrorism, and growing danger of another world war, and Donald Trump is in the midst of creating the conditions that would lead to this third World War.

America and the world have not learned from the sacrifices a century ago, as politics, religion, and egotism continue to cause conflict, and we are now moving closer to authoritarianism in the world than we have seen since the end of the Cold War a quarter century ago.

And Trump has disgraced the commemoration in France this weekend by failing to travel to a cemetery that contains many Americans and others who sacrificed for our nation a century ago.

And his promotion of extreme nationalism over patriotism has been rebuked appropriately by French President Emmanuel Macron.

This is a President who has not yet gone to a combat zone, as every other President has done, and is working to privatize the Department of Veterans Affairs, which would be a true disaster, and hopefully will be stopped by the 116th Congress, with a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.