It should be easy to gain the minimum 23 seats to put Democrats in charge of the House of Representatives in the upcoming 116th Congress.
The key reality is that there are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Illinois, and California seats that seem likely to be switched.
There are suburban districts that traditionally vote Republican, but now are expected to vote Democratic, due to the outrage of women, and the fear that we will have a massive rise in prices due to the crazy tariffs Donald Trump has put upon products from China, as well as the European Union.
in the first midterm after a new President has been inaugurated, invariably the party in control of the White House loses a large number of seats, and often control of Congress.
This was true in 2010, 1946, 1994, 1974, and 1966, years when the party in power lost 63, 55, 54, 48, and 48 seats respectively, as well as losing 6, 12, 8, 4, and 4 seats in the US Senate.
Best bet is that the Democrats will gain 35-40 seats in the House, and have a shot at winning two seats from Republicans, and keeping all of their endangered Senators, particularly now with the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court controversy.
With the low public opinion ratings of Donald Trump, history tells us that the average in the first midterm of a new President sees 44 House seats and 5 Senate races lost.
Also, first term midterms, not considering public opinion ratings of the new President, see an average of 29 House and 3 Senate seats lost.
So considering all these factors, it seems that Democratic control of both houses of Congress seems likely in the 116th Congress.
Saturday, September 22, 2018—Nate Silver’s website, “Five Thirty Eight†( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ ), has the Democrats leading the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +8.5 percentage points. Since 2016 was won by the Republicans with a margin of +1.08 (it was Republicans 49.11% vs. Democrats 48.03%), this would be a 2016-to-2018 national shift of Democratic +9.58. Silver rates the Democrats’ chances of flipping the U.S. House at 80.9 percent.
For the midterm elections of 2018, there are just two Democratic-held congressional districts in position to flip Republican. They are both from Minnesota: #01 (Tim Waltz, retiring and Governor nominee; Open); #08 (Rick Nolan, retiring; Open).
With a total 38, in which the Democrats could win a net gain of +36 seats, and hopefully I did not miscount, here are the Republican-held congressional districts on the “Five Thirty Eight†map in tossup status (including within ones which are Lean or Likely Democratic pickups):
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—DEMOCRATIC [HILLARY CLINTON] (19)
• California (05): #10 (Jeff Denham); #25 (Steve Knight); #45 (Mimi Walters); #48 (Dana Rohrabacher); #49 (Darrel Issa, retiring; Open)
• New York (02): #19 (John Faso); #22 (Claudia Tenney)
• Illinois (01): #12 (Mike Bost)
• New Jersey (04): #02 (Frank LoBiondo, retiring; Open); #03 (Tom MacArthur); #07 (Leonard Lance); #11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen; Open)
• Virginia (02): #05 (Tom Garrett, retiring; Open); #10 (Barbara Comstock)
• Washington (01): #08 (Dave Reichert, retiring; Open)
• Colorado (02): #03 (Steve Tipton); #06 (Mike Coffman)
• Minnesota (02): #02 (Jason Lewis); #03 (Eric Paulsen)
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—REPUBLICAN PICKUP [DONALD TRUMP] (11)
• Florida (02): #26 (Carlos Curbelo); #27 (Ileana Ros–Lehtinen, retiring; Open)
• Pennsylvania (04): #05 (Vacant; Open); #06 (Ryan Costello, retiring; Open); #07 (Vacant; Open); #17 (Keith Rothfus)
• Ohio (01): #01 (Steve Chabot)
• Michigan (02): #08 (Mike Bishop); #11 (Dave Trott, retiring; Open)
• Iowa (02): #01 (Rod Blum); #03 (David Young)
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—REPUBLICAN [DONALD TRUMP] (08)
• Texas (02): #07 (John Culberson); #23 (Will Hurd)
• North Carolina (02): #09 (Robert Pittenger, lost re-nomination; Open); #13 (Ted Budd)
• Arizona (01): #02 (Martha McSally, retiring and U.S. Senate nominee; Open)
• Kansas (02): #02 (Lynn Jenkins, retiring; Open); #03 (Kevin Yoder)
• Nebraska (01): #02 (Don Bacon)
With regard for those “Five Thirty Eight†rates as Lean Republican holds, I keep in mind the previous list is on par with an estimated 10-point national shift. For those on Lean Republican hold status, they are flippable if the 2016-to-2018 national shift is closer to 15 points. So, the difference would be the 2018 Democrats—while flipping the U.S. House—would win the U.S. Popular Vote by as much +14 percentage points. So, under those circumstances, here are the U.S. House seats which could potentially get flipped (due to their margins of +5.50 percentage points or less with their Lean Republican hold status):
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—DEMOCRATIC [HILLARY CLINTON] (10)
• California (02): #21 (David Valadao); #39 (Ed Royce, retiring; Open)
• New York (01): #11 (Daniel Donovan)
• Illinois (03): #06 (Peter J. Roskam); #13 (Rodney Davis); #14 (Randy Hultgren)
• Virginia (02): #02 (Scott Taylor); #07 (Dave Bratt)
• Washington (01): #05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
• New Mexico (01): #02 (Steve Pearce, retiring and U.S. Senate nominee; Open)
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—REPUBLICAN PICKUP [DONALD TRUMP] (09)
• Florida (03): #06 (Ron DeSantis, retired and vacant and Governor nominee; Open); #15 (Dennis Ross, retiring; Open); #25 (Mario Diaz–Balart)
• Pennsylvania (01): #10 (Scott Perry)
• Ohio (01): #12 (Troy Balderson)
• Michigan (01): #07 (Tim Wahlberg)
• Wisconsin (02): #01 (Paul Ryan, retiring; Open); #06 (Glenn Grothman)
• [Maine #02: Bruce Poliquin]
2016 U.S. PRESIDENT—REPUBLICAN [DONALD TRUMP] (06)
• Georgia (01): #07 (Rob Woodall)
• North Carolina (01): #02 (George Holding)
• Kentucky (01): #06 (Andy Barr)
• Arkansas (01): #02 (French Hill)
• Montana (01): At-Large (Greg Gianforte)
• Alaska (01): At-Large (Don Young)
The two sets of lists consists of 63 Republican-held U.S. House seats. The first set lists 18 states. The second set brings the list up to as many as 26 states playing a role in determining majority control of the U.S. House. (From the first set’s list, one can figure a net average of +2 seat gains with each involved state.)
The 2018 Republicans are favored to counter-flip +2 Democratic-held seats. The 2018 Democrats are favored to win a new majority pickup of the U.S. House.
If all these potential seats were to flip from 2016 Republican to 2018 Democratic, the 2018 Democrats would gain +61 seats and enter 2019 with a new majority of 256 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Going by history—the U.S. House-flipping midterm elections of 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010 having averaged +3.59 seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point—the 2018 Democrats would shift +16.99 points in order to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +15.91 percentage points. But, going by the potential from some polls reporting the 2018 Democrats winning the U.S. Popular Vote by as much as +14—which would be a 2016-to-2018 national shift of +15.08—this would mean there is potential for the 2018 Democrats to gain +4.04 seats with each nationally shifted percentage point to win the net gain of +61 seats.
I err on the side of caution. My guess is the 2018 Democrats will end up with a new majority of seats numbering between 226 to 240 in the U.S. House…but, I will remain open to more polls reporting a potential, additional, 2016-to-2018 national shift in this political party’s favor.
Thanks again, as always, D, for your keen analysis, much appreciated!
Ronald,
At “Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico: The Most Predictable States in Presidential Elections in American History†( https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=34829 ), you responded to me with writing the following: “I was born and a resident of New York City and Long Island until my move to South Florida in 1989, now 29 years ago. | But everywhere I travel on vacation, and when I say I am from South Florida, I get skeptical looks as they realize I have a New York accent, haha lol.â€
I meant to respond sooner but, and I apologize, I did not get around to doing so until now.
I was born in Michigan. A suburb of Detroit. Wayne County, with its county seat Detroit. I have been here my whole life. I have what I consider a second home state, because of a relative with whom I am close and visit, in Colorado. In Fort Collins. Larimer County, with its county seat Fort Collins. The top bellwether county for how that state votes. And my relative—this is my maternal aunt—was born in Michigan. Her friends were also born and/or raised outside Colorado; in states like New York and Illinois. Colorado is one of several states with a trend in population growth in which it is not surprising to find many who were not born and/or raised there. Florida is another. And there are several more.
It doesn’t surprise me you were born in New York, because of the fact that the state of New York ranked No. 1 in population until some point during the 1960s. With about 70 perfect of the people residing in a Top 20 populous state, it makes plenty sense.
In the meantime, electorally, I am most interested in your home state, Florida, for what will become the results of the 2018 midterm elections. I am predicting a Democratic pickup of the governorship for Andrew Gillum; a narrow Democratic hold of the U.S. Senate seat for Bill Nelson (mainly with Gillum helping Nelson more so, in margins, than the other way around); and Democratic pickups from one or both of the 26th and/or 27th congressional districts. (The latter will come first.)
D, I totally agree with you on your analysis of Florida, and hope we are both correct. Thanks!