Key Democrats To Elect As State Governors: Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Gavin Newsom, Richard Cordray, J. D. Pritzker, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer

It is urgent that Democrats, who at present, only have 16 state governorships, win a majority of the 36 gubernatorial races taking place this November.

Among the crucial races to win are the following:

Andrew Gillum in Florida

Stacey Abrams in Georgia

Ben Jealous in Maryland

Gavin Newsom in California

Richard Cordray in Ohio

J. D. Pritzker in Illinois

Tony Evers in Wisconsin

Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan

With other large states in Democratic hands and likely to remain so, including:

Andrew Cuomo in New York

Tom Wolff in Pennsylvania

it would mean that Democrats would control most of the larger states’ executive branches, crucial for reapportionment of seats in state legislatures and the US House of Representatives after the Census in 2020.

Only Texas of the top ten states in population would be likely to remain Republican, and with North Carolina (Roy Cooper) and New Jersey (Phil Murphy) and Virginia (Ralph Northam) and Washington State (Jay Inslee) all under Democratic Governors, it would mean 12 of the top 13 states with nearly two thirds of the nation’s population would be controlled by Democrats.

Add Democratic states likely to remain so, including Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Rhode Island, and the possibility of winning in Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, and New Mexico, and you have a majority of Democratic run state governorships. Finally, Nevada and Arizona seem long shots, but could, in a “Blue Wave” be won by Democratic nominees for governor in those states.

But even if not a majority of states, if the large populated states are won, it will benefit the Democrats in the coming reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.

2 comments on “Key Democrats To Elect As State Governors: Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Gavin Newsom, Richard Cordray, J. D. Pritzker, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer

  1. D September 20, 2018 5:34 am

    The polls for U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, suggests a national 2016-to-2018 shift of close to 10 points so the 2018 Democrats would win by +9. That would be good for, say, +35 seats.

    If that were to be the level of a national shift for the 2018 gubernatorial elections, the 2018 Democrats would also win a pickup for a new majority count with at least 26 seats.

    In 2014, the Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, by +4.09. Looking at polls, and with a perception of the most realistically favorable outcome for the 2018 Democrats, they could win the U.S. Popular Vote by about +5—that is a national shift of about +9 points—and win a net gain of up to +13.

    I will provide a link to a map I have created here. (The light shades are pickups.)

    https://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/eagg.png

    As a reminder (revised for 09.20.2018): Here are the Democrats’ likely path to reach a new majority of at least 26 governorships:

    (17) Illinois
    (18) New Mexico
    (19) Michigan
    (20) Maine
    (21) Nevada
    (22) Florida
    (23) Wisconsin
    (24) Ohio
    (25) Iowa
    (26) Georgia — Tipping Point State

    I think the pollsters are going low on their estimates of 2018 Democratic pickups of governorships. They tend to have three states—Illinois, New Mexico, and Michigan—as Democratic pickups. A fourth—Maine—has been back and forth between tossup and Lean Democratic pickup. (Term-limited Republican Gov. Paul LePage won re-election by +4.81, which is very close to his party’s popular-vote margin of +4.09.) For four states to flip, and with the rate being 1.5 gubernatorial gains with each nationally shifted percentage point, the 2018 Republicans would win the U.S Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, by +1.

    A big reason why that does not jive is the fact that 14 of the Top 20 populous states are on the schedule for the 2018 midterm elections. And only two states—Massachusetts and Maryland—are in position to experience increased 2014-to-2018 Republican margins for the likely re-elections of their popular incumbent governors: Massachusetts’s Charlie Baker and Maryland’s Larry Hogan. Baker and Hogan won their first-term elections, as Republican pickup winners, in 2014. Both were under the national +4.09. They had a lot to shift to flip with those small margins. So, they pretty much have nowhere to go but up. And, because they are popular, they likely will. (The timing, particularly for Maryland Democratic nominee Ben Jealous, is that it is likely he should have run instead in 2022.)

    This means the 2018 U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, will strongly likely shift in the direction of the Democrats. And it is highly likely they will win the a pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote. After all, why would the Democrats win the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by around +10 points and, yet, the Republicans hold the U.S Popular Vote for U.S Governors by +1?

    Listing the scheduled Top 20 populous states—which combine for between 66 to 70 percent of the nation’s residents—here is the direction their 2014-to-2018 will likely go:

    TOP 10 POPULOUS
    California — Democratic shift
    Texas — Democratic shift (Republican hold)
    Florida — Democratic shift (Democratic pickup!)
    New York — Democratic shift
    Illinois — Democratic shift (Democratic pickup)
    Pennsylvania — Democratic shift
    Ohio — Democratic shift (Tossup/Lean Democratic pickup)
    Georgia — Democratic shift (Tossup/Estimated Tipping Point State)
    Michigan — Democratic shift (Democratic pickup)

    TOP 20 POPULOUS
    Arizona — Democratic shift (Tossup/Lean Republican hold/No. 27 or 28 likely rank for a Democratic pickup)
    Massachusetts — Republican shift (Republican hold)
    Tennessee — Democratic shift (Republican hold)
    Maryland — Republican shift (Republican hold)
    Wisconsin — Democratic shift (Tossup/Lean Democratic pickup)

    I think the polls are going to be moving more, over the next six-plus weeks leading to the general election date of November 6, 2018, which will become even more favorable for the Democrats.

  2. D September 20, 2018 5:38 am

    The 2016 Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +1.08. Call it +1. A 2018 Democratic shift of +10 ends up with a prevailing margin of +9.

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