The Demographic Death Spiral Of The Republican Party!

The Republican Party is in a death spiral, unable to appeal to the majority of:

African Americans
Asian Americans
Native Americans
College Educated
Urban Population
Gays, Lesbians, Transsexuals
New England and Northeast States
Pacific Coast States
Upper Midwestern States and Illinois
Most “Swing States”

The Republican Party gains support from the majority of:

Older White Males over 45
Working Class White Males
Non College Educated
Very Religious Christians and Jews
Southern States With Smaller Populations
Rural Population
Great Plains States
Upper Mountain West States
Wealthy Upper Class

The second set of groups are simply not enough to win the Presidency, and the GOP, if it does not change its basic philosophy and appeal, is doomed, as it is in a death spiral historically!

14 comments on “The Demographic Death Spiral Of The Republican Party!

  1. Ronald May 4, 2016 10:14 am

    You are totally correct, Princess Leia.

    There is no perfect candidate, never has been, but to compare Trump to Hillary is a joke!

  2. D May 4, 2016 11:18 am

    That poll indicated a popular-vote margin of D+13, which is a 2012/2016 Democratic shift of +09.

    There were an average of roughly 130 million president’s votes cast between Elections 2012 and 2016. This would mean the 2012/2016 shift in raw votes is 11.7 millionand that the victory would be 16.9 (close enough to 17) million raw votes.

    That would be an epic disaster for the Republican Party. The 26 states carried by Barack Obama, in 2012, would yield Democratic pickups of at least 10 states and an electoral-vote score which would reach 400. Along the pickup states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The rest would be motivated by the results from research as to whether the old route (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia) or if the Dwight Eisenhower route of the plains states. If it so bad—that even the 30-seat advantage for the a Republicans gets erased in a Democratic wave and pickup (which would come after flipping the U.S. Senate)—it could be all that. That, by the time this is done, the red on that electoral map is in less than 10 states.

  3. Ronald May 4, 2016 11:58 am

    D, I assume you saw my article on HNN on Monday.

    I highly doubt such a massive wave toward Hillary, but would love it if what you predict occurs

  4. Rational Lefty May 4, 2016 12:33 pm

    Kasich’s dropping out now.

  5. Southern Liberal May 4, 2016 12:52 pm

    Steve Kornacki showed the electoral demographics of Obama vs. Romney last night. Obama won due to a lot of votes from African Americans and Latinos. He showed potential election demographics for Hillary vs. Trump. Same demographics that helped Obama win, helped Hillary win the potential election.

  6. Pragmatic Progressive May 4, 2016 12:54 pm

    Elizabeth Warren has Tweeted that she’s going to help unite the Democrats in November.

  7. Pragmatic Progressive May 4, 2016 12:56 pm

    Yep. Kornacki’s electorate info is basically the same as what the Professor posted.

  8. Ronald May 4, 2016 12:59 pm

    Yes, Pragmatic Progressive, thanks for pointing that out.

    I remind everyone I was totally accurate on electoral votes 332-206 in 2012, and my HNN article on Monday predicts 334-204!

  9. Princess Leia May 4, 2016 2:22 pm

    It’s ironic how the media was saying that the Republican race wouldn’t be decided until the convention and now it looks like the Democratic race may continue until at least June.

  10. Pragmatic Progressive May 4, 2016 3:51 pm

    The thing I fear: The public is fickle and who knows what kind of breaking news between now and election day will make them forget Trump’s monstrosities.

  11. Rational Lefty May 4, 2016 4:01 pm

    The key demographic will likely be women. Women may not be overly fond of Clinton, but an overwhelming majority of them loathe Trump and a PolitiFact review of recent polls found that Clinton likely to win women voters by an historic 19-point margin. And women are a majority of the electorate.

  12. D May 5, 2016 10:55 am

    Southern Liberal,

    I have been seeing that same map plenty of places.

    Every presidential election has a shift—in whichever party’s direction—because our votes don’t stand any more still as can time. There has never been one election’s electoral map duplicated in a later election.

    That map suggests a 2012-to-2016 Democratic shift of +03 to +05. If the Democratic nominee of 2016—more likely Hillary Clinton than Bernie Sanders—wins election to the presidency by a national margin of +07 to +09, that map is likely. If the victory is more than +10…then more states will follow.

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