Day: June 11, 2011

The Iowa GOP Presidential Caucus Will Likely Have No Effect On The Nomination

A lot of attention is being paid to the Iowa Presidential caucuses due on February 6, 2012.

A lot of the GOP candidates are partaking in that series of caucuses as the first time to measure popular support of their candidacies.

But the fact is that the Iowa caucuses for the Republicans are unlikely to affect the ultimate nomination next year, as Mitt Romney seems unlikely to participate, much like 2008, and Jon Huntsman has announced he will not be part of the process.

In both cases, it is because of the Mormon faith of Romney and Huntsman, which is unlikely to go over well with Iowa social conservatives, a majority of whom are evangelical Christians.

The real race in Iowa is likely among Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, and Herman Cain, with Sarah Palin also a possibility to influence what happens if she runs, which still seems unlikely.

But Pawlenty, the most most legitimate of the four above, has to compete with Iowa born Bachmann, who would have to be favored. And if Palin enters the race, it makes it all the more difficult for Pawlenty, who knows that his whole strategy is to win Iowa, and use that to overcome Romney, who now lives in New Hampshire and is from neighboring Massachusetts, a tall order for Pawlenty to accomplish!

The real battle will be between Romney and Huntsman, both Mormons and actually cousins, with Huntsman seeing the New Hampshire primary as the necessary first step to overcome Romney, and then to triumph over Romney and others in Florida, where he is setting up headquarters, evidence that the Sunshine State will be crucial to him if he is to take off at all after New Hampshire!

The Democratic Party Image Hurt By John Edwards And Anthony Weiner: Is Either Political Party Able To Avoid Scandal And Effectively Govern The Nation?

Just as the Democratic Party has been able to celebrate the gaining of Congressional District 26 in upstate New York in a special election to fill the seat of Republican Chris Lee, who resigned over a bare chest pic on the internet, they are beset by the indictment of former Senator John Edwards on misuse of Presidential campaign contributions to cover up his illicit relationship and the fathering of a child, and now by Congressman Anthony Weiner for his Twitter, Facebook, and internet conversations and pics that could best be described as raunchy!

But then the Republican Party has also had its ups and downs, and it seems a constant battle for each political party to stay above water in public opinion image!

That is why many often express willingness to be independent and have nonpartisans in public office, to do what is best for the American people.

But that is, unfortunately, not the history of political parties since the time of Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton, and the reality is that the American people, by overwhelming numbers and the system mechanics that are in place, will continue to make a choice between candidates of the two major parties, and if dissatisfied, throw the “rascals” out on a regular basis.

The only problem with that will be the lack of institutional experience if there is constant turnover, and a group of “rookies” taking over and leaving every few years.

The question will have to be answered whether we are going to expect “perfect” people in public office, or realize the weaknesses of human nature and stop expecting our political leadership to come across as saintly, when even religious leadership and other fields of high respect produce many imperfect people.

Do we want mediocre people in office, as long as they are somehow utopian and seemingly perfect in their behavior, or are we willing to accept that the “great” people in public office, from the time of Benjamin Franklin to Bill Clinton and beyond, have “skeletons in the closet”?

Will “It’s The Economy, Stupid!” Outweigh The Death Of Osama Bin Laden And Help Mitt Romney Against Barack Obama?

A month ago, President Barack Obama’s public opinion polls skyrocketed, following the successful elimination of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan.

Now, a month later, due to the unstable economy and lack of major job growth, and general economic pessimism, Obama has lost the majority support he had last month, and has slipped below 50 percent in the polls.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, Obama has slipped to 47 percent, and in a matchup with Mitt Romney, he is behind by three points, 46-43, emboldening the former Massachusetts Governor to believe he has an advantage for 2012, and that such an advantage will give him the edge for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The problem is that Romney might, for now, be ahead, and he might, realistically, along with Jon Huntsman, be the BEST candidate for the GOP, but that is no guarantee that he will win the nomination of his party or the election in November 2012!

The fact that he has stated his belief that global warming and climate change are a real factor, if not the sole one, in what is happening regarding weather and environmental conditions, will not win friends from the social conservatives.

Nor will his Mormon faith, the same problem of Jon Huntsman, help Romney, since evangelical Christians do not regard Mormons as Christians, but rather as a cult.

Nor will his Massachusetts health care plan, often compared to Obama Health Care, although he has carefully defended it, while saying he would not foist it on the nation as a whole.

Nor will his chameleon nature, constantly changing his views with the shifting political winds, with many seeing him as a moderate to liberal Republican in his past, but now claiming to be a conservative.

Nor will his slick manner, his seemingly perfect family and clean image, help him because it seems, somehow, contrived to many!

But will an economy with a high unemployment rate, poor housing prices, high gasoline prices, and a stagnating stock market, be enough to help Romney or some other Republican, and outweigh the national security issue, including the death of Bin Laden, and the fact that America is involved in fighting terrorism in FIVE nations by bombing and drones–Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, and Yemen–making Obama look tough on defense and security issues?

Just about 16 and a half months away from the election, and eight months from the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the Republican Party has some hope, but many daunting challenges ahead, but then again, so does Barack Obama, to convince the nation to re-elect a President with high unemployment numbers and percentages, greater than since Franklin D. Roosevelt!