Utah

If Joe Arpaio Ran For US Senate, He Would Be Oldest First Term Elected Senator At Age 86 And Seven And A Half Months!

Donald Trump is suggesting that former Maricopa county Sheriff Joe Arpaio, just pardoned by Trump, run for the Republican nomination for the US Senate against Republican critic Senator Jeff Flake next year in Arizona.

Whether Arpaio would actually take such a step is unsettled, and it would seem that Arpaio would be unlikely to win the nomination or election, with both Flake and Senator John McCain highly critical of him, and of Trump’s pardon of the controversial former Sheriff in Phoenix.

However, were Arpaio to run and be successful, he would be the oldest first term U S Senator ever elected in American history, at age 86 and 7 and a half months in January 2019, making him older than the oldest members of the present US Senate, California Senator Diane Feinstein and Utah Senator and President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch of Utah.

Previously, only two US Senators were sworn in at an older age than Arpaio would be, but both were appointed to finish out a term, not elected by popular vote.

Andrew Jackson Houston of Texas, son of the famous Sam Houston, served by appointment for 67 days to fill a vacancy from April 21, 1941 to June 26, 1941 as a member of the Democratic Party, and he was 86 years 10 months and 1 day old when he became a member of the Senate. His brief term ended with his death, and he had been ill most of the time while a Senator, mostly being in a hospital during his tenure in the upper chamber. His death came five days after his 87th birthday.

Rebecca Felton of Georgia was the first woman to serve in the US Senate, and the only one to date from Georgia, and the oldest person ever sworn in to the US Senate, at age 87 years, 3 months and 24 days old, and serving only one day in the Senate as a Democrat from November 21 to November 22, 1922. Her husband had served in the House of Representatives, and Rebecca Felton had been a prominent reformer in the Progressive Era, an advocate of women suffrage and equal pay for equal work for women, as well as prison reform. However, at the same time, Felton supported white supremacy and had been a slave owner in her younger years, and had spoken in favor of lynching of African Americans, so her so called “Progressivism” had major shortcomings. She died at age 94 in 1930.

Trump Appointment Of Jon Huntsman As Ambassador To Russia A Mixed Message, Not Necessarily Good For Huntsman

Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman has finally been formally appointed by Donald Trump to be Ambassador to Russia, although news of the appointment emerged in March. Why it took this long to make it formal is a mystery.

Certainly, we can say that this is, by far, the best appointment Trump has made, without question.

Huntsman is a true statesman, a brilliant figure in politics and diplomacy, and this blogger has said in the past that Huntsman was easily the most qualified and competent GOP Presidential candidate in 2012, and only Ohio Governor John Kasich of the 2016 Republican field came close in competence to Huntsman, although not being equal to him.

But why Huntsman would agree to this appointment in the midst of the Russian collusion scandal is beyond understanding, as it gives cover to Trump, and complicates the whole investigation.

It will be important for Huntsman NOT to allow himself to be manipulated by Trump, as it would undermine Huntsman’s credibility.

One could still wish that Huntsman had become President, rather than Trump, and it is still an open question how he will be involved in the whole Trump–Putin “bromance”, which endangers our government and our national security.

So this blogger feels that Huntsman is making a mistake in legitimizing Donald Trump, particularly now after the revelations about the Donald Trump Jr and Jared Kushner meeting with Russians in June 2016, and the newly discovered hour discussion at the G-20 Summit between Trump and Putin without any other American involved, not even an interpreter!

The Perplexity Over Jon Huntsman Accepting Russian Ambassadorship From Donald Trump

Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to Singapore and China Jon Huntsman surprised many when he accepted the Ambassadorship to Russia offered yesterday by President Donald Trump.

Huntsman was the best Republican Presidential candidate in the 2012 cycle, and even John Kasich, who this blogger thinks was the best Republican Presidential candidate in the 2016 cycle, does not match up to him in background, experience, and solid quality.

Huntsman has solid credentials for diplomacy, including knowledge of several foreign languages, including Mandarin Chinese, and did an excellent job for Barack Obama in that nation as our ambassador from 2009-2011.

While of course we need an excellent ambassador to Russia, why oh why, would Huntsman allow himself to be associated with our despicable President, particularly in the midst of the controversy over his Russian connections, which might force Trump out of office at some point?

Huntsman is 57 this month, and was rumored to be planning to challenge Senator Orrin Hatch, President Pro Tempore, and third in line for the Presidency, for his seat in 2018, when Hatch would be running for his 8th term at age 84. That would have made sense for Huntsman long term.

This blogger’s head is shaking in disbelief!

Republican “Firewall”, Added To Democratic Opposition In US Senate, Gives Some Hope To Control Trump Appointments And Initiatives

Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Jeff Flake and John McCain of Arizona
Cory Gardner of Colorado
Marco Rubio of Florida
Rand Paul of Kentucky
Susan Collins of Maine
Ben Sasse of Nebraska
Dean Heller of Nevada
Rob Portman of Ohio
Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Mike Lee of Utah
Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

We must realize that Donald Trump is not really a Republican or a conservative, and is impossible to figure out what his agenda is, so that means that there will be a “firewall” of Republicans in the US Senate, who at least in some cases, can be added to Democratic opposition in the Senate, and give some hope that there will be control over Trump appointments and initiatives over the next few years.

Not all of the above list will cooperate and collaborate together on all issues, but they all seem to be likely to fight Trump on some issues, and if three or four work together with a united Democratic Party in the Senate, Trump will be unable to accomplish all his goals, and he is likely to bitterly denounce these Republicans, and cause, by his language, more stalemate and gridlock, and prevent the most grievous nominees and parts of his agenda.

The most likely to oppose Trump are the following: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Jeff Flake, and Rob Portman in that order.

However, Ben Sasse and Mike Lee, as strong conservatives, are also likely to try to limit Trump Administration goals if they find them objectionable.

The others–Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Dean Heller, Pat Toomey, Lamar Alexander, and Shelley Moore Capito–may, occasionally, join with the members of this group.

Remember that seven of this group—Murkowski, McCain, Rubio, Paul, Portman, Toomey, and Lee have a new six year term, so are not threatened by Trump as far as their Senate seat is concerned.

Only Flake and Heller face election contests in 2018, while the other seven –Sullivan, Gardner, Collins, Sasse, Graham, Alexander, and Capito face election in 2020.

So 16 Senators out of 52 Republicans, fully one third, could stand in the way of Donald Trump, and if he went too far in abuse of his powers, could, potentially, join in a possible move to promote impeachment, although even if all 48 Democrats joined in, would still fall short of the 67 needed to convict and remove him by three votes.

Donald Trump Delusional: North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia All Gone

Donald Trump is totally delusional, running all over the nation, claiming he is winning, when it is assured he will lose big time in tomorrow’s election!

Trump seems to think he will win North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia, but they are all gone!

Trump will have trouble keeping “Red” states, including Arizona, Utah, and even Texas, and is assured to lose North Carolina, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 but for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump will have to keep all “Red” states, and win all “Swing” states too, or take a “Blue” state, and anyone who is betting on all that is a fool!

The surging Latino vote and women’s vote insures that Trump will lose Florida, and that will be, effectively, the end of the election before November 8 ends!

Hillary Clinton Hits Home Run In Third Debate, And Trump Disqualifies Himself By Refusing To Say He Would Concede After November 8!

Hillary Clinton hit a home run last night in the third and last Presidential debate, and Donald Trump, as former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele declared, disqualified himself by refusing to say that he would concede graciously and with class and dignity, if he loses the election, which he most certainly will lose.

More than before, Donald Trump has harmed himself and the Republican Party, which looks as if it is in its death knell on the Presidential level, at the least, for a long time, as “Red” states are seemingly turning “Blue”, including Arizona, Utah, North Carolina, Georgie, and even, possibly, Texas.

Also, referring to Hillary Clinton as a “nasty lady” was totally uncalled for, and added to the image that Donald Trump is a totally uncaring, selfish, sore loser!

Many Republicans and conservatives, more than ever, are running away from him, but many will become victims of his destructive, negative campaign, and the conservative and evangelical Christian movement has been permanently damaged.

Trump is such a misogynist, that he cannot tolerate losing to a “girl”, and he will never recover psychologically from the coming massive defeat he will suffer on November 8.

He will go down in history as the worst, most despicable, human being ever to take part in Presidential politics!

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Utah
Indiana
Missouri
South Carolina
Texas
Alaska
Mississippi
Kansas
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

Evan McMullin, Independent Presidential Nominee, Could Win Utah’s 6 Electoral Votes

In the midst of all of the attention paid to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein, there is actually another Presidential candidate on the ballot in eleven states, Evan McMullin, running as a conservative alternative.

McMullin is a possible winner in Utah, with its 6 electoral votes, with his Mormon heritage, and his record as Chief Policy Director for the House Republican Conference, and as a CIA Operations Officer, all by the age of 40, easily the youngest Presidential candidate in a year where three are “elderly” and Gary Johnson is 63.

In a recent poll, McMullin had 20 percent, only a few points behind Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and with Gary Johnson having 14 percent, so there is a real four way race in Utah, the only state that we see that situation.

McMullin is pro life on abortion matters; accepts gay marriage; is pro free trade; against mass deportation of undocumented immigrants; and supports the basics of ObamaCare, but wants to make a better system. He is critical of Donald Trump on counter terrorism measures, as he has years of experience in that area of policy making.

He could “mess up” the Electoral College, and could become the first non major party candidate to win a state’s electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968.

It is highly unlikely that if he won the state of Utah with its 6 electoral votes, that he would be the decisive factor in who wins 270 electoral votes, but in theory, he could prevent any candidate from winning the required number of electoral votes, and require the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which has not been used since 1824, to be dusted off once again after 192 years!

If such a scenario developed, there is a slight chance that McMullin could become President, but do not bet on it by any means!

Donald Trump Seems In Free Fall In Many “Red ” States After Access Hollywood Tape And Accusations Of Sexual Assault!

All of a sudden, it seems possible that Donald Trump may lose many “red” states. This has occurred as news of the Access Hollywood tape and multiple accusations of sexual assault by a multitutude of women, who live far apart and do not know each other, keep on becoming news. The question is why would these women put themselves through publicity if it was not true, as they are gaining nothing financially from the revelations. So suddenly, Trump is in trouble, just trying to keep “red” states when he needs to win “swing” states.

Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina, and is within the margin of error in Georgia and Arizona in many polls.

Also, Utah looks in play with Mormon dislike of Trump, and the independent candidacy of Evan McMullin, in a very tight four person race with Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Gary Johnson.

Additionally, Missouri and Indiana have very small leads for Trump, with Clinton apparently gaining.

And even South Carolina and Texas have close leads for Trump, when for a Republican nominee, it should be an easy win.

And get this, even Alaska looks like it might give Hillary Clinton a chance to win that small populated state.

The odds, of course, are that Hillary Clinton will only win North Carolina, and likely Georgia and possibly Arizona.

But the idea of close races in six other states is mind boggling!