Super Tuesday

Iowa A “Free For All” One Month Out From Democratic Presidential Caucuses

One month out from the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucuses, and it is clear that a “Free For All” is developing, with any of five candidates seen as the potential first place finisher.

One poll shows a tie among Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg, but to think that next door Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar should be ignored is an unwise assumption, as she has just completed visiting all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State, and that could lead to a surprise as her stock seems to be rising.

Also, Elizabeth Warren cannot be dismissed, as she is a fighter, and really, anything could happen in Iowa.

At the same time, there is a growing feeling that Bernie Sanders could, in theory, win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, all in February, and with his large financial base from ordinary citizens, he could be the Democratic Presidential nominee, if he does indeed sweep the first three states, as that could create momentum for Super Tuesday on March 3.

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

The Battle For The Moderate Center Among Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg

It is becoming clear that the battle for the Moderate Center in the Democratic Party looks as if it is down to Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg.

So two old guys who would hit 80 in their second year in office or a guy who would reach age 40 in his second year of office!

The trend seems toward Pete, who is gaining nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Joe will probably not triumph until at least South Carolina, and Bloomberg is expecting his media advertising to insure he will do well on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the women in the race, particularly Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have slipped, while Amy Klobuchar is gaining slightly, but still not a major factor at this point.

Of course, trying to predict what will happen in February and March in late November-early December is not reliable, but it is all part of the fun of watching a Presidential race!

Is Kamala Harris Indeed “The Female Barack Obama”? The Hype Seems Not To Be Happening For 2020

California Senator Kamala Harris seemed to be on the road to becoming “The Female Barack Obama”, a person of mixed race, attractive appearance, and the potential to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020.

But, surprisingly, Harris has languished in the background, seemingly faltering, while Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, has surged to number four among Democratic candidates, replacing Harris.

While it is too early to write Harris off, the feeling is developing that she will not win any early state in February, and might have trouble even in California on Super Tuesday, by the power of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

In theory, Harris could be a Vice Presidential running mate, but more likely, she will simply have a long career in the US Senate, and maybe pursue the Presidency in a later time in the mid to late 2020s.

March 3, 2020 Becomes Key Presidential Nomination Day: Could Help California Democrat To Become Presidential Nominee

More than ever, “Super Tuesday”, March 3, 2020, will be THE most crucial day in the Presidential primaries for the 2020 Presidential campaign.

As things now stand, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will continue to be the first states to hold primaries or caucuses before March–with a multitude of states holding their primaries the first Tuesday in March.

In 2016, New Hampshire and South Carolina held primaries, and Iowa and Nevada held caucuses. Eleven states held contests on the first Tuesday in March, which was March 1, with nine holding primaries and two holding caucuses.

Now, however, California has moved its primary from June to March 3, 2020, and being the biggest state in population, it will have a far greater impact than it has had in June, when the nominations of both parties had already been settled earlier.

It should make the Democratic nominee more likely to be to the left of center, rather than centrist, and the Republican nominee to be more likely to be centrist conservative than a right wing conservative.

The pressure for earlier declarations of candidacy and for more campaigning throughout 2019 will be great.

On first thoughts, it would seem that any of three California Democrats might have the edge for the Presidential nomination, and that the three–Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and presumed Governor Gavin Newsom, presently Lieutenant Governor of the state–would have a battle royale as to which would be the strongest and most likely challenger.

But also, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders might also have the edge, as things stand now.

The Republicans would probably, assuming Donald Trump is not in the White House, have a good opportunity for a John Kasich or Jon Huntsman, the two most moderate conservative candidates in 2016 and 2012 respectively, to have an edge.

But, of course, trying to project two and a half years from now is a pure guessing game, but fun to speculate about!

Barack Obama Advice From Yogi Berra: “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over”!

There will be the tendency for Barack Obama supporters to feel good after Super Tuesday, and feel that Barack Obama has a second term in the White House in the bag.

That would be the worst assumption possible!

On paper, yes, things are looking good as the GOP race for the Presidential nomination continues, and Mitt Romney looks in trouble, and Rick Santorum, who most logical people cannot see having any chance to win the nomination or election, continues to do well, particularly in the heartland of the nation.

Eight months to go until the election, and the world can turn upside down and inside out, in less than that amount of time.

We could have a major war in the Middle East against Iran, or another economic downturn, which could be triggered by that war with Iran.

Unforeseen circumstances we cannot imagine could occur, and the tides could turn.

Remember that Thomas E. Dewey was ahead of Harry Truman in 1948; Richard Nixon ahead of John F. Kennedy in 1960; Jimmy Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan in 1980; Michael Dukakis ahead of George H. W. Bush in 1988; George H. W. Bush ahead of Bill Clinton in 1992; and Al Gore ahead of George W. Bush in 2000 to the end, but not considering the electoral vote issue that would help Bush in the end.

There is plenty of work ahead for the Obama team, and they cannot afford to be cocky.

They need to remember the admonition of Yankee great, catcher Yogi Berra, who is famous for his line about baseball games: “It ain’t over till it’s over”!

No more true statement can be expressed regarding politics, as well as sports!

There Will Be NO President Romney! The Demise In Process!

It is now certain that there will be NO President Mitt Romney taking the oath of office on January 20, 2013.

It is also very likely that there will be someone other than Mitt Romney as the GOP Presidential nominee, after the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida.

Mitt Romney is loved by NO ONE other than his family and his paid workers, sorry to say.

Mitt Romney is not liked by many Americans because he is simply too rich, and wears his wealth constantly. Even his wife says she does not feel wealthy, imagine that!

Mitt Romney is distrusted by conservatives and Tea Party activists because they see him as a Massachusetts liberal who promoted RomneyCare, very close to the ObamaCare that he now condemns.

Mitt Romney is not liked because he is a Mormon, and evangelical Christians have a large impact on the heartland of the nation, and think of Mormons as not being Christian, but instead as a cult.

Mitt Romney is distrusted because he is the most massive flip flopper, and could be redefined in the vocabulary with his name meaning that term!

Mitt Romney has shown he cannot win the heartland of the nation against competition, having lost Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Colorado at this moment of writing to Rick Santorum, as well as losing South Carolina and Georgia to Newt Gingrich, and Tennessee to Santorum. Mitt Romney is NOT going to win the Atlantic Coast or the Pacific Coast, and he is not going to win Massachusetts or Vermont in the election, and will have a major struggle in Virginia, which, if all candidates had been on the ballot, he likely would have lost as well!

At this point, Mitt Romney’s only areas of strength are New England, the section he lived in for 40 year and served in government; Michigan, where he was born and grew up to adulthood; and Mormon areas in the Far West, including Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. And he is unlikely to win any of these in November, except maybe Arizona, Utah and Idaho, but not Nevada!

Mitt Romney has shown that despite all of his fantastic wealth, that does not give you the White House, and in fact, most Americans would feel uncomfortable with someone as filthy rich as Romney, who is worth more than the last eight Presidents combined, and assuming he lives to age 85, twenty years from now, he would be the first billionaire President, just from interest on his quarter of a billion fortune over a generation!

Mitt Romney does not represent America, and never could do so in any form!

The demise of Mitt Romney is in full bloom, even with Ohio still out at this writing, but with Rick Santorum leading, by 2,500 votes with 84 percent of the vote counted.

A reminder: EVERY Republican President has won Ohio, but if Romney either loses or only wins by a bare margin over Santorum in Ohio, how can anyone think he is able to win Ohio over Barack Obama in November?

With exactly eight months to the election, this Super Tuesday is good news for Barack Obama, above all!

Super Tuesday: End Of The GOP Presidential Race? Don’t Bet On It!

Super Tuesday should see the end of the Presidential nomination race, as it often has in recent Presidential cycles.

However, it was not so for the Democrats in 2008, and it is unlikely that it will be the end of the Republican race today.

There is a good chance that Rick Santorum will win Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma tonight, and that Newt Gingrich will win the biggest state in delegate totals, Georgia.

If that happens, or most of it, then Mitt Romney cannot “close the deal” and start to look to the Fall Presidential campaign, and if that is what happens, then the Republicans face further turmoil and division.

The Republican Party establishment can only hope that the race is over, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, and Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn both endorsed Romney last weekend, hoping that the blood letting among the candidates would be over.

It is still reality that Mitt Romney remains unpopular among many Republicans, and many still wish there was some alternative to those in the race.

It will be a gargantuan task for Mitt Romney to keep discontented people in the party, as well as convince Independents and women in large numbers, to vote for him. The likelihood of success is very low!

Super Tuesday: The Significance Of Ohio For Republicans, And Particularly For Mitt Romney!

Next Tuesday, ten states will be voting in GOP primaries and caucuses, the most of any day in this Presidential campaign.

The state that will matter the most of those ten states is the Buckeye State, Ohio, a state with more delegates and more electoral votes than any of the other nine, and also a Midwestern state which has suffered a great deal from the Great Recession and its aftermath, and has benefited from the survival and success of General Motors and Chrysler promoted by President Barack Obama.

It is also a state which has given us more Presidents than any state except Virginia. And it is a state which EVERY Republican President has won, and every failed Republican nominee has lost.

To put it succinctly, Ohio is a MUST state for a Republican Presidential candidate, and yet it looks very possible that Mitt Romney, despite his narrow victory in his home state of Michigan, might lose this state to Rick Santorum.

If Mitt Romney, presumed to be the front runner and likely Republican choice for President, cannot win Ohio, then how can one expect that he can win it in November against Barack Obama?

So if he loses Ohio, and going by the history of the Republican Party, he loses Ohio in November, then Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential election, and is, therefore, a flawed candidate.

Of course, there is always the chance that for the first time ever for a Republican nominee, Mitt Romney could lose Ohio and win the Presidency, but again, this has NEVER happened from Abraham Lincoln through George W. Bush, and one cannot expect such a quirk would occur.

Rick Santorum And Rural America Vs Mitt Romney And Suburban America

Tonight’s results in Michigan and Arizona preserved Mitt Romney’s lead, and edge in the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination.

But Romney did not knock Santorum out of the box, as the saying goes. Super Tuesday next week has the potential to assist Santorum in his battle promoting social conservatism.

And the new realization is that Santorum appeals to rural areas, which tend to wish for the past of America, when cities and suburbs were not so highly developed and influential.

Rick Santorum proved in the Michigan Primary that he could win the land and the rural areas, while Romney won the suburbs, although most urban areas are heavily Democratic.

It brings back memories of the struggle between urban and rural America that became most evident in the Presidential Election of 1896 (William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan) and the Presidential Election of 1928 (Al Smith vs, Herbert Hoover).

It is also the battle nationally, as the “heartland” is heavily rural and Republican, and the coastlines, highly urbanized and suburban areas, are Democratic.

This election is really a battle to move into the future, or to move backwards to the nostalgia of the past, and the future is the only sensible choice!