Super Tuesday

March 3, 2020 Becomes Key Presidential Nomination Day: Could Help California Democrat To Become Presidential Nominee

More than ever, “Super Tuesday”, March 3, 2020, will be THE most crucial day in the Presidential primaries for the 2020 Presidential campaign.

As things now stand, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will continue to be the first states to hold primaries or caucuses before March–with a multitude of states holding their primaries the first Tuesday in March.

In 2016, New Hampshire and South Carolina held primaries, and Iowa and Nevada held caucuses. Eleven states held contests on the first Tuesday in March, which was March 1, with nine holding primaries and two holding caucuses.

Now, however, California has moved its primary from June to March 3, 2020, and being the biggest state in population, it will have a far greater impact than it has had in June, when the nominations of both parties had already been settled earlier.

It should make the Democratic nominee more likely to be to the left of center, rather than centrist, and the Republican nominee to be more likely to be centrist conservative than a right wing conservative.

The pressure for earlier declarations of candidacy and for more campaigning throughout 2019 will be great.

On first thoughts, it would seem that any of three California Democrats might have the edge for the Presidential nomination, and that the three–Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and presumed Governor Gavin Newsom, presently Lieutenant Governor of the state–would have a battle royale as to which would be the strongest and most likely challenger.

But also, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders might also have the edge, as things stand now.

The Republicans would probably, assuming Donald Trump is not in the White House, have a good opportunity for a John Kasich or Jon Huntsman, the two most moderate conservative candidates in 2016 and 2012 respectively, to have an edge.

But, of course, trying to project two and a half years from now is a pure guessing game, but fun to speculate about!

Barack Obama Advice From Yogi Berra: “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over”!

There will be the tendency for Barack Obama supporters to feel good after Super Tuesday, and feel that Barack Obama has a second term in the White House in the bag.

That would be the worst assumption possible!

On paper, yes, things are looking good as the GOP race for the Presidential nomination continues, and Mitt Romney looks in trouble, and Rick Santorum, who most logical people cannot see having any chance to win the nomination or election, continues to do well, particularly in the heartland of the nation.

Eight months to go until the election, and the world can turn upside down and inside out, in less than that amount of time.

We could have a major war in the Middle East against Iran, or another economic downturn, which could be triggered by that war with Iran.

Unforeseen circumstances we cannot imagine could occur, and the tides could turn.

Remember that Thomas E. Dewey was ahead of Harry Truman in 1948; Richard Nixon ahead of John F. Kennedy in 1960; Jimmy Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan in 1980; Michael Dukakis ahead of George H. W. Bush in 1988; George H. W. Bush ahead of Bill Clinton in 1992; and Al Gore ahead of George W. Bush in 2000 to the end, but not considering the electoral vote issue that would help Bush in the end.

There is plenty of work ahead for the Obama team, and they cannot afford to be cocky.

They need to remember the admonition of Yankee great, catcher Yogi Berra, who is famous for his line about baseball games: “It ain’t over till it’s over”!

No more true statement can be expressed regarding politics, as well as sports!

There Will Be NO President Romney! The Demise In Process!

It is now certain that there will be NO President Mitt Romney taking the oath of office on January 20, 2013.

It is also very likely that there will be someone other than Mitt Romney as the GOP Presidential nominee, after the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida.

Mitt Romney is loved by NO ONE other than his family and his paid workers, sorry to say.

Mitt Romney is not liked by many Americans because he is simply too rich, and wears his wealth constantly. Even his wife says she does not feel wealthy, imagine that!

Mitt Romney is distrusted by conservatives and Tea Party activists because they see him as a Massachusetts liberal who promoted RomneyCare, very close to the ObamaCare that he now condemns.

Mitt Romney is not liked because he is a Mormon, and evangelical Christians have a large impact on the heartland of the nation, and think of Mormons as not being Christian, but instead as a cult.

Mitt Romney is distrusted because he is the most massive flip flopper, and could be redefined in the vocabulary with his name meaning that term!

Mitt Romney has shown he cannot win the heartland of the nation against competition, having lost Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Colorado at this moment of writing to Rick Santorum, as well as losing South Carolina and Georgia to Newt Gingrich, and Tennessee to Santorum. Mitt Romney is NOT going to win the Atlantic Coast or the Pacific Coast, and he is not going to win Massachusetts or Vermont in the election, and will have a major struggle in Virginia, which, if all candidates had been on the ballot, he likely would have lost as well!

At this point, Mitt Romney’s only areas of strength are New England, the section he lived in for 40 year and served in government; Michigan, where he was born and grew up to adulthood; and Mormon areas in the Far West, including Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. And he is unlikely to win any of these in November, except maybe Arizona, Utah and Idaho, but not Nevada!

Mitt Romney has shown that despite all of his fantastic wealth, that does not give you the White House, and in fact, most Americans would feel uncomfortable with someone as filthy rich as Romney, who is worth more than the last eight Presidents combined, and assuming he lives to age 85, twenty years from now, he would be the first billionaire President, just from interest on his quarter of a billion fortune over a generation!

Mitt Romney does not represent America, and never could do so in any form!

The demise of Mitt Romney is in full bloom, even with Ohio still out at this writing, but with Rick Santorum leading, by 2,500 votes with 84 percent of the vote counted.

A reminder: EVERY Republican President has won Ohio, but if Romney either loses or only wins by a bare margin over Santorum in Ohio, how can anyone think he is able to win Ohio over Barack Obama in November?

With exactly eight months to the election, this Super Tuesday is good news for Barack Obama, above all!

Super Tuesday: End Of The GOP Presidential Race? Don’t Bet On It!

Super Tuesday should see the end of the Presidential nomination race, as it often has in recent Presidential cycles.

However, it was not so for the Democrats in 2008, and it is unlikely that it will be the end of the Republican race today.

There is a good chance that Rick Santorum will win Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma tonight, and that Newt Gingrich will win the biggest state in delegate totals, Georgia.

If that happens, or most of it, then Mitt Romney cannot “close the deal” and start to look to the Fall Presidential campaign, and if that is what happens, then the Republicans face further turmoil and division.

The Republican Party establishment can only hope that the race is over, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, and Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn both endorsed Romney last weekend, hoping that the blood letting among the candidates would be over.

It is still reality that Mitt Romney remains unpopular among many Republicans, and many still wish there was some alternative to those in the race.

It will be a gargantuan task for Mitt Romney to keep discontented people in the party, as well as convince Independents and women in large numbers, to vote for him. The likelihood of success is very low!

Super Tuesday: The Significance Of Ohio For Republicans, And Particularly For Mitt Romney!

Next Tuesday, ten states will be voting in GOP primaries and caucuses, the most of any day in this Presidential campaign.

The state that will matter the most of those ten states is the Buckeye State, Ohio, a state with more delegates and more electoral votes than any of the other nine, and also a Midwestern state which has suffered a great deal from the Great Recession and its aftermath, and has benefited from the survival and success of General Motors and Chrysler promoted by President Barack Obama.

It is also a state which has given us more Presidents than any state except Virginia. And it is a state which EVERY Republican President has won, and every failed Republican nominee has lost.

To put it succinctly, Ohio is a MUST state for a Republican Presidential candidate, and yet it looks very possible that Mitt Romney, despite his narrow victory in his home state of Michigan, might lose this state to Rick Santorum.

If Mitt Romney, presumed to be the front runner and likely Republican choice for President, cannot win Ohio, then how can one expect that he can win it in November against Barack Obama?

So if he loses Ohio, and going by the history of the Republican Party, he loses Ohio in November, then Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential election, and is, therefore, a flawed candidate.

Of course, there is always the chance that for the first time ever for a Republican nominee, Mitt Romney could lose Ohio and win the Presidency, but again, this has NEVER happened from Abraham Lincoln through George W. Bush, and one cannot expect such a quirk would occur.

Rick Santorum And Rural America Vs Mitt Romney And Suburban America

Tonight’s results in Michigan and Arizona preserved Mitt Romney’s lead, and edge in the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination.

But Romney did not knock Santorum out of the box, as the saying goes. Super Tuesday next week has the potential to assist Santorum in his battle promoting social conservatism.

And the new realization is that Santorum appeals to rural areas, which tend to wish for the past of America, when cities and suburbs were not so highly developed and influential.

Rick Santorum proved in the Michigan Primary that he could win the land and the rural areas, while Romney won the suburbs, although most urban areas are heavily Democratic.

It brings back memories of the struggle between urban and rural America that became most evident in the Presidential Election of 1896 (William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan) and the Presidential Election of 1928 (Al Smith vs, Herbert Hoover).

It is also the battle nationally, as the “heartland” is heavily rural and Republican, and the coastlines, highly urbanized and suburban areas, are Democratic.

This election is really a battle to move into the future, or to move backwards to the nostalgia of the past, and the future is the only sensible choice!

Rick Santorum Surges To Significance: What This Means For The GOP

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has had a good night, winning the Missouri Primary and the Minnesota Caucuses, and at this writing, also leading in the Colorado Caucuses.

If this happens, that he wins all three states, then Santorum has won four states (Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado), to Mitt Romney’s three states (New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada), and Newt Gingrich’s one state (South Carolina).

It means that Rick Santorum must be taken seriously, as possibly the true conservative challenger to Mitt Romney, instead of Newt Gingrich. It means that Santorum has won three Midwestern states, the area of the country usually considered prime and needed territory for a Republican win.

It means also that the Republican battle for the Presidential nomination will drag on for a long time, and that Super Tuesday on March 6, could be the decisive day in the battle.

All this ultimately helps Barack Obama, and for political junkies like the author, it keeps politics interesting!