Suburbanites

The Miracle Of Andrew Gillum, The Democratic Nominee For Governor In Florida

Today has been a glorious day, one of the best this author has experienced in a long time.

What seemed impossible happened, as Andrew Gillum, the African American Mayor of Tallahassee, Florida (the state capitol), overcame the disadvantages of no money, no winning of any polls, no advertising to speak of. He triumphed over four other candidates, all with tons of money, and polls and advertising on a large scale.

So now we have three African American candidates for Governor, with Stacey Abrams in Georgia, and Ben Jealous in Maryland, along with Andrew Gillum.

Gillum was an unknown, and this author did not vote for him, assuming he had no chance to win, but now that he has won, this author is thrilled beyond belief, and ready to help Andrew Gillum win and bring a Democratic government on the executive level to the Sunshine State, the third largest behind California and Texas.

Andrew Gillum is educated, intelligent, a great orator, with great charisma and presence, a sense of humor, exudes confidence and has had executive experience, and displays a humility that is very appealing.

Gillum is someone to take seriously, as since independents could not vote in Florida for either party’s nomination, the potential for a “blue wave” is there, with not only independents, but also moderates in the Republican Party who are unhappy with the Donald Trump led Republican Party and its candidate, a nasty, mean spirited, arrogant three term Congressman, Ron DeSantis, who already the day after the primary, is using the word “monkey”, appealing to white supremacy and white racists.

Additionally, the fact that Gillum is only 39 will appeal to African Americans, young people, educated suburbanites, and the growing Puerto Rican population after Hurricane Irma, and with them being citizens of the US, and able to vote against Trump, who was shameful in his treatment of the hurricane disaster on that island. Now we are learning that 2,975 died in Puerto Rico, 60 percent higher than died in Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005.

To make the situation even more impressive, the Attorney General nominee for the Democrats is also an African American, Sean Shaw, and the candidate for State Agricultural Commissioner is Nikki Fried, who is Jewish. So we have a truly diverse ticket, and all this should help Senator Bill Nelson hold off Governor Rick Scott, who is spending three times what Nelson is able to raise, for his campaign.

But the belief is that Gillum, Shaw, and Fried could carry Nelson on their backs, and lead to an all Democratic victory in Florida in November.

36 Legislative Seats In States Flipped From Republicans To Democrats Since Trump Election

With a victory in a state legislative race in Florida last night of a Democrat in a Republican held seat, we can say that 36 legislative seats in states that Trump won in 2016 have now flipped, a sign of likely great results for Democrats in November 2018 for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, state legislative races, and state governors.

Many traditional Republican voters are clearly alienated from Donald Trump, and specific groups–suburbanites, women, and young people–are seen as likely flippers in large numbers, to the Democrats in the upcoming elections.

Several other races that have ended up with Republican wins have been by much closer margins than in the past.

Changing the state legislatures and making for more Democratic seats will be extremely important when it comes to reapportionment of seats in 2020 and after, and it is urgent that Democrats gain the edge, as that will affect politics for the entire decade of the 2020s.

So the urgency is to make sure voters come out in greater numbers than is traditional in midterm election years, and if people stay home and allow the Republicans to continue their control of state legislatures, governors, and the two houses of Congress, they will have no one to blame but themselves for the disastrous long term results of such apathy.

As 2017 Ends, Trump Approval Rating In Rapid Decline, And Democrats In Rapid Rise Among Major Voting Groups

As 2017 ends, Donald Trump is in free fall in his approval rating.

CNN has just come up with new figures that show the Trump base is rapidly declining in its support of the person they backed in 2016.

The approval rating overall has dropped to an all time low of 32 percent from a high in February of 39 percent right after Trump’s inauguration.

Republicans have dropped from 84 percent to 76 percent in their support, shocking in the fact it has not dropped much more, and a sign that the GOP might be in its death knell, as many observers have predicted.

Men have declined in support from 45 percent to 40 percent.

Whites support for Trump dropped from 49 percent to 41 percent.

Those over 50 years of age declined in support of Trump from 47 percent to 38 percent.

White Evangelicals, a major part of Trump support, despite the hypocrisy involved, went from 78 percent to 61 percent.

And White Non College support went from 56 percent to 46 percent.

When specific groups of voters have dropped 5 points to 17 points in nine months, that is a danger sign for the future.

Beyond these specific groups, it is clear that women, young voters, suburbanites, college educated, and African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans are clearly going over to the Democratic Party, and this is what fueled victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and Alabama.

So the future bodes well for the Democratic Party in the upcoming Congressional and Gubernatorial and state legislative races in November 2018.

Sunbelt States (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) Will Make Rust Belt Mid West (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) No Longer Factor In Future Presidential Elections By Mid 2020s And After

In the midst of constant rehashing of the 2016 Presidential Election results, one point is being lost by political observers.

The nation is changing demographically very rapidly.

What happened in Virginia on Election Day this year is a sign of the future. Suburbanites, women, minorities, white collar educated, those under 45, and Independents swung over massively to the Democratic Party.

Those trends are not temporary, but permanent, as the older generation, which tends to be more conservative, dies off over the next decade, and the percentage of more educated people grows, and as the percentages of Latinos and Asian Americans start to change Sun Belt states.

So the near future is clearly that the states of Texas, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will turn Blue, while the Rust Belt Mid West, not as populated with the groups that helped to make Virginia as Blue a state as it is (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) may go back and forth from Red to Blue, but in the Electoral College, the Rust Belt Mid West will matter much less than it did in 2016, assisting the victory of Donald Trump.

So one can say with a great amount of assurance that by 2024 or 2028, the Democrats will have the electoral advantage in the Electoral College, and are unlikely to lose it, as the Republican Party continues to alienate even their base of less educated and rural voters, and as the Sun Belt turns Democratic long term.

Of course, as part of this transition, the Democratic Party needs to move to the Left, be more progressive and liberal,and not come across as a moderate alternative to the Democratic Party, as that is the future of the party, to act more like it is the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt or Lyndon B. Johnson. This is what the groups which helped the Virginia victory desire for the future.