Rick Santorum

Six Of Twelve Remaining Republican Presidential Candidates Should “Throw In The Towel” And Withdraw From Race!

So we are now in 2016, and in four weeks, we have the Iowa Caucuses on February 1, and then on February 9, we have the New Hampshire Primary.

With four weeks to go until the first votes, we have 12 remaining candidates for the White House on the Republican side, but really, it is time for six of them to withdraw before the first vote, as there is zero chance of any of these six ending up as the GOP nominee for President:

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania

Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas

Dr. Benjamin Carson

Carly Fiorina

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

The race comes down to Donald Trump; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida; Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey; Governor John Kasich of Ohio; and former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, it is likely that two of these six will have ended their quest for President, with Christie and Bush the likely dropouts at this point.

This will leave Trump with his demagoguery; Cruz with his extremely far right conservatism; Rubio with the best chance to end up as the nominee ultimately; and Kasich as the “dark horse”, who could end up as the nominee or as the Vice Presidential choice.

The Iowa Caucuses: Historically Insignificant, And Worth Ignoring!

We have seen the state of Iowa getting an inordinate amount of attention in the Presidential Election race of 2016, as we have seen since 1976. But when one looks at history, we should understand that the Iowa Caucuses are a pure waste of time, that  Iowa is not representative of the nation, and the smart candidate would not put so much effort into the Hawkeye state!

The idea of a Presidential caucus is really very anti democratic, and a primary is a much better representation of the true feelings of the population of a state.  Ideally, ALL states should have primaries, not caucuses.

But since Iowa has a Presidential caucus, the facts are that much  of the time, it has had little or no effect on the Presidential elections.

The record shows that four out of ten times, the Republican caucus in Iowa has chosen a candidate who did not go on to be the GOP nominee–George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988, Mike Huckabee in 2008, and Rick Santorum in 2012.  Three other times, the incumbent President had no opposition–Ronald Reagan in 1984, George H. W. Bush in 1992, and George W. Bush in 2004.  And in 1976, in a contested caucus, President Gerald Ford edged out over Ronald Reagan.  Only in 1996 and 200 were the candidates who won the nomination (Bob Dole and George W. Bush) able to win the Iowa Caucuses.  And only the second Bush winning Iowa in 2000 led to the Presidency!

The Democrats have had the Iowa Caucuses be more successful, with the nominee of the party being the winner of the Caucuses seven out of ten times, all but 1976, with “Uncommitted” winning; Dick Gephardt in 1988, and Tom Harkin in 1992, but realizing that Gephardt was from neighboring Missouri, and Harkin was an Iowa ‘favorite son”!  Jimmy Carter in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Barack Obama in 2012 all won second term support, with Walter Mondale, Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama winning contested primaries when they ran in 1984, 2000, 2004 and 2008 respectively.  And only Obama winning Iowa in 2008 led to the Presidency!

The conclusion is that it really does not matter who wins Iowa as only two Presidents winning Iowa have gone on directly to become President, and that New Hampshire’s Primary is much more accurate and representative in the long run of history as to who will be the party nominees!

Right Wing Christian Zealots Back Donald Trump While Establishment Republicans Condemn Trump On Anti Muslim Stand!

The Republican Party is in a quandary as to how to deal with Fascist demagogue Donald Trump, who is still leading the polls and is gaining the backing of a plurality, if not a majority, of registered Republicans, in polls, on the issue of banning all Muslim immigration to the United States.

The fact that Trump is a clear cut racist, nativist, and Islamophobe does not perturb those Republicans being polled, and yet we have seen condemnation by all Republican candidates of Trump’s demagogic proposal, with the exception of Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum.  So we have seen Republican Congressional leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, along with many other leading Republicans, even including former Vice President Dick Cheney, take a stand opposing that displayed in the polls.

What we have seen is despicable characters such as: Michele Bachmann, Ann Coulter, Franklin Graham, Alex Jones, Pam Geller, Bryan Fischer, Pat Robertson, Frank Gaffney, and David Duke endorse Trump on this issue, despite their shady image as advocates of civil liberties and civil rights long term.

So the Republican Party and the conservative movement are at a crossroads, as they are trying to evade the damage being done to their brand by Trump and his ilk, but there is no question that the Trump phenomenon, the promotion of a modern Fascism, will not come to power, despite the ignorance and narrow mindedness of a portion of the American people.

Instead, it looks as if the Republican Party is about to implode, as it desperately attempts to overcome Trump, and we can expect the possibility of a brokered convention next July, which would be the most tumultuous Republican convention since the Gerald Ford-Ronald Reagan battle in 1976, and the even more tumultuous Democratic convention of 1968!

Foreign Policy Experience Mediocre For Republican Party Candidates: A Danger For America!

It is clear that foreign policy is going to be a crucial part of the Presidential Election of 2016.

When one looks at the Republican candidates for the Presidency, it is very alarming how little background and experience the group has.

Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina, the “Non Officeholders”, have ZERO experience, and just because one is in the business world or is a medical doctor, is NOT qualifications for the Presidency!

Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore were or are  Governors and have no experience in foreign policy. but love to act like bullies.

Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have no understanding of the intracacies of American foreign policy, with one so hawkish in his rhetoric that he is literally scary, and the other being totally naive about the world with his overly dovish views.

Former Senator Rick Santorum has no skills to understand the world scene, and Lindsey Graham, while more knowledgeable on foreign policy, is famous for wanting troops everywhere, as he is a super hawk!

Senator Marco Rubio is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which helps his credentials, but he lacks a serious understanding of world affairs.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the plus of being related to his dad, who was a foreign policy specialist, but he is more inclined to follow the disastrous policies of his brother, George W. Bush.

John Kasich has the most varied career, and gained foreign policy knowledge while in the House of Representatives for 18 years, and has a more balanced view of the world than any other potential nominee, but he does not have the expertise of Jon Huntsman, who was a potential nominee in 2012 and was Ambassador to China.

The fact is that NO Republican matches the background of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, pure and simple!

 

Reince Preibus Has It Right: The Republicans Are “Cooked” If They Do Not Win The White House In 2016!

The Republican National Chairman, Reince Preibus, said yesterday that the Republicans are “cooked”, if they do not win the White House in 2016, and for once, he is absolutely right!

The Presidency is the prize for a political party, and even with control of one or both houses of Congress, the party is stymied if it has an “unfriendly” Chief Executive.

The Republican Party is self destructing by allowing its extremist right wing Tea Party element to dictate its actions and principles, and they are proving how incompetent and useless they are with the worst record in American history of production during the 112th Congress (2011-2012), the 113th Congress (2013-2014),  and now the 114th Congress (2015-2016).

And its Presidential candidates are pitiful, and the party is allowing three people with ZERO government experience to be the front runners for the Presidency, all of whom would be absolutely horrible Chief Executives, and with Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson, in particular, a very scary scenario, as both seem to be mentally unbalanced with their behavior and utterances.

But the remaining office holder Republicans running for President, in most cases, are no better, stating ridiculous and outrageous ideas and beliefs, including such candidates as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, and Bobby Jindal.

The clear cut reality is that the Republicans will NEVER win the White House again if they persist in their misogyny, racism, nativism, Islamophobia, and homophobia, along with consistent attacks on labor and the environment.  And if they lose the White House, they lose the ability to affect the Supreme Court and lower federal courts, and this means progressive appointments to the courts for the long term, transforming American history, and weakening conservatism for the long haul.

So Preibus is correct, the GOP is “cooked” if they lose the 2016 Presidential election, and most assuredly, they are on the road to such disaster!

Rick Perry And Scott Walker Gone From Presidential Race: Major Rise And Rapid Decline!

Rick Perry led the 2012 Republican Presidential race right around this time in 2011, and then flopped badly with his poor performance in  a debate where he could not remember the third government agency he wanted to abolish.  He came back this year, with nice new glasses, and claiming he had improved his ability to perform in debates, but the polls never showed he could recover from his famous disaster four years ago.

Scott Walker led the polls in Iowa and was seen earlier this year as a major contender for 2016, but he totally collapsed, despite having the backing of the Koch Brothers, and now, like Perry, was a total bomb in debates.

Their being the first two to leave the GOP race shows being ahead in the third year of a Presidential term is often the death knell, and it will be followed soon by the likes of Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal,  Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and other pitiful candidates, including Dr. Benjamin Carson and Carly Fiorina, despite their being high in the polls at the moment, and Rand Paul.

At the end, it looks more than ever that the final four will be Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich.

The Trump Effect: Goodbye To Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul

Donald Trump is in the process of doing great damage to the Republican Party, but already, his effect has been to destroy half of the candidates in a dramatic way.

Everyone knew that George Pataki and Jim Gilmore had no hope of being the nominee, even though in some ways, they are actually more mainstream than others.  But the GOP is not working to be mainstream, which is why they will lose the Presidential Election of 2016.

But others have been damaged badly, and can now be considered out of the race, even though they are refusing to accept reality.

The biggest loser is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, backed by the Koch Brothers, but being totally inept, indecisive, and weak in his campaign presentations, a very different image than he had as he attacked labor unions in his state.

Rick Perry had hoped he could recover from the debacle of 2012 debates, but he is now down to one paid staffer in Iowa, and is no longer a factor.

Bobby Jindal, one of the most hypocritical of all candidates, has never taken off, and has lost in recent polls any support he seemed to have.

Lindsey Graham is an influential Senator, but totally anemic and embarrassing in his lack of support even in his home state of South Carolina.

Chris Christie has lost his purpose, as Donald Trump is much more of a braggart, a bully, a loud mouth than Christie, so he is done.

Rick Santorum might have ended up second to Mitt Romney in 2012, and won some caucuses and primaries, but lightning will not strike twice for him.

Rand Paul is also pitiful, going nowhere fast, and inconsistent in his libertarianism, and now can purse another Senate race as his state party in Kentucky has agreed to a caucus, instead of a primary for the Presidential race.

So effectively, the Republican race is down to 8 people, much more manageable:  Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

And then, lurking in the background, is Mitt Romney, which would be a sign of desperation for the Republican Party!

Public Policy Polling Makes Clear It Is Time For Eight Of Republican Presidential Candidates To Withdraw From The Race!

The latest Public Policy Polling poll indicates that it is time for 8 of the 17 Republicans to withdraw from the Presidential race for 2016, as their chances of improving are nil, and they are losing money and campaign staff rapidly, if they had it to begin with!

The following candidates need to “throw in the towel” on their campaigns:

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

Former New York Governor George Pataki

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Even if one thinks some of these candidates have some ideas worthy of consideration, it is clear that their hopes for the Republican Presidential nomination are less than zero.  No miracle will happen, and it is time to get back to reality!

If these eight withdrew, it would leave 9 candidates, who could all debate on September in the CNN debate.

This would include Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina (who has surged in polls, but is not scheduled to be in the September 16 “Top Ten” debate); Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush; Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; Ohio Governor John Kasich; Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

Winners And Losers In First Republican Debate

It is clear to this blogger that the winners of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, last night were in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Dr Benjamin Carson
Rand Paul

It is also clear to this blogger that the losers of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, lat night were in order:

Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee

if one includes the separate debate of the seven at the bottom of the polls, the winners in order were:

Carly Fiorina
Rick Perry

The losers were the rest of the group in the following order:

Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki

Who came out as potentially “Presidential” in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

It seems more likely than ever that one of these three will be the Republican Presidential nominee, but there is a long road to six months from now and the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and beyond, so we shall see!

Likelihood Of Oldest Presidential Candidate Race Ever In American History!

As the 2016 Presidential campaign heats up, it looks more and more likely that the two major party nominees will be among the oldest ever nominated or elected.

The Democrats have the following candidates who will be 64 or even beyond 70 as possible nominees:

Hillary Clinton 69
Joe Biden 74
Bernie Sanders 75
Jim Webb 70 (but nearly 71)
Lincoln Chafee 63 (but nearly 64)

The Republicans have the following candidates who will be 64 or beyond as possible nominees:

Jeb Bush 63 (but nearly 64)
Donald Trump 70
John Kasich 64
Rick Perry 66 (but nearly 67)
Jim Gilmore 67
George Pataki 71
Dr Benjamin Carson 65

Between the likely Democratic nominee and the likely Republican nominee, we can expect the oldest combination of Presidential candidates if one for each group above are the chosen nominees.

Right now, the Democratic nominee seems likely to be one of the top three on the list–Clinton, Biden or Sanders; and the Republican nominee likely to be one of the top three on that list—Bush, Trump, Kasich.

However, IF the Republican nominee turns out to be the younger candidates, such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio, we could have a bigger difference in age than we have rarely had, with only vast differences in age of William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900; Franklin D. Roosevelt and Thomas E. Dewey in 1944; Harry Truman and Dewey in 1948; Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984; Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush in 1992; Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996; Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008; and Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Note that in the cases of a much older and much younger opponents, the older candidate won with McKinley, FDR, Truman, and Reagan, but the younger candidate won with Clinton twice and Obama twice.

If Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Lindsey Graham were the GOP nominee, the average age of the two opponents would still be close to the highest in history, with their average age in the low 60s at inauguration.

Remember that the only Presidents to be 64 or older at inauguration were Ronald Reagan, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, George H. W. Bush, and Zachary Taylor.

The only other Presidents over the age of 60 at inauguration were:

Dwight D. Eisenhower
Andrew Jackson
John Adams
Gerald Ford
Harry Truman

So only 10 Presidents out of 43 were 60 or older when taking the oath, while now we are very likely to have both candidates over the age of 60, with 11 out of 17 Republican candidates being over 60, and 5 out of 6 (Martin O’Malley the exception) of the Democratic candidates over the age of 60.

So while we had a “new generation of leadership” three times in the past half century with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, now we are almost certain to have an “old generation” of leadership coming to power on January 20, 2017.