Redistricting

The Urgency Of The Democratic Party Taking Back The House Of Representatives, And State Governorships And Legislatures In 2018

Jon Ossoff, the Democratic front runner in the 6th Congressional District of Georgia (Atlanta suburbs), fell just short of the 50 percent needed to win that seat in the House of Representatives, and avoid a runoff.

Now he will face Republican Karen Handel on June 20, and it will be more difficult to gain the seat, a traditionally GOP district in the past 38 years since Newt Gingrich won the seat in 1979, followed up by Tom Price, the Health and Human Services Secretary, who vacated the seat to become part of Donald Trump’s cabinet.

One can be assured massive amounts of money will be spent on both sides of this race, which, if Ossoff wins, would be a major blow to Donald Trump and his agenda.

The 24 point swing in Kansas’s special election for the House, and now the 10 point swing in Georgia, in the first round, are signs that the Democrats COULD regain the majority in the House of Representatives in 2018, after eight years in the “wilderness”.

It is simply a sign of the reality that the Democratic Party, at a low point, having lost so many seats in both houses of Congress in the Barack Obama era, along with governorships and state legislatures, have the urgency to work very hard to start their revival.

The average number of seats gained by the “out” party in the midterm elections is 23 in the House of Representatives, and right now, the Democrats need 24 seats to regain control, so it is within potential gains that one might expect.

The US Senate will be nearly impossible to win seats, however, as only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2018, as against 25 Democrats.

Looking at the GOP held seats, the only possible gains, and not easily, might be Jeff Flake’s seat in Arizona, and Dean Heller’s seat in Nevada. The only other possible hope would be if somehow Ted Cruz could be unseated in Texas, but that is highly unlikely. So at this point, the most that could be expected is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Mike Pence able to use his vote in a tied Senate.

One must realize that while many of the 25 Democratic seats are seen as safe, a large number are not so, including Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Bill Nelson in Florida, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. Note that Heitkamp, Manchin, and Donnelly tried to protect their flank by voting for Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, but McCaskill, Tester, Nelson and Casey did not do so.

But beyond Congress, it is urgent that state governorships be gained, as well as control of more state legislatures, all in planning for the next census of 2020 and the redistricting of House seats and state legislative seats that will come after 2020, with the evil reality of gerrymandering affecting the next decade.

Most Significant Issue Of Entire Campaign: The Supreme Court Future And A Democratic Majority US Senate!

No more important issue is on the plate for this election year than the Supreme Court future, tied into a Democratic Majority US Senate!

The Republicans have made it clear that if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency, but the Republicans retain the control of the Senate, that NO Supreme Court nominee will be confirmed, and in fact, not even considered in hearings.

This is totally unacceptable, and cannot be allowed to occur for the next four years, as effectively, that is destroying the whole purpose of the separation of powers and constitutional government!

The Supreme Court has been Republican majority since 1972, and finally, the tipping point to a Democratic and more progressive/liberal Court is in the offing.

Such issues as the following could end up before the Court in the next four years:

Abortion
Affirmative Action
Campaign Finance
Class Action Suits
Climate Change
Contraception
Gun Rights
Immigration Reform
LGBTQ Rights
ObamaCare
Redistricting
Unions
Voter ID Laws
Voting Rights

The Governorships And State Legislatures: A Crucial Year For Both Political Parties!

The elections in 37 states this November for the office of Governor, as well as the state legislative battles raging across the country, will have a very powerful effect on the fortunes of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for the next decade, as this is the year of the census figures, and reapportionment of seats for the House of Representatives and the state legislatures will be determined over the next two years by the election results!

The party that controls the state legislature can use the practice of gerrymandering to set district lines to favor their party for the next decade! In a sense, redistricting allows leaders to choose their voters, instead of voters choosing their leaders! 🙁

The Republican Party is seen as favored to gain more by likely control of more state legislatures, with an estimate of gaining at least ten chambers this fall, which could give them the power to redraw up to 25 congressional districts!

At this point, the Democrats have the advantage, controlling 27 states to 14 for the GOP, with eight states having divided legislatures! But the momentum is against them in this round of such crucial elections!

However, the governorships are also a factor, as a governor can veto redistricting plans of the state legislature, and force the issue into extended court suits, if the Governor is of the party opposite of the legislative majorities!

So although there are 50 states, the larger states with more Congressional members have a greater role, and in those states, the Governorship races are therefore more crucial for both parties to win! Certainly, the most important states would thus include California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia, the top nine states, and all of these are battlegrounds, except possibly New York, where Andrew Cuomo is a heavy favorite to overcome either of his Republican opponents!

So the state races, both for the Governorship and the legislative balance, matter greatly, even more this year than usual!