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The Octogenarians And The Presidential Nomination Battle In 2020—Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Jerry Brown, Michael Bloomberg

Soon, once the midterm elections of 2018 are over, no matter what happens, we will start to see the beginnings of the Presidential Election of 2020 campaign.

And in the Democratic Party, we have, in theory at least, FOUR soon to be Octogenarians who MIGHT decide to run for the nomination of their party.

All four would be in their 80s during the next term.

First, we have former Vice President Joe Biden, who would be 78 days after the 2020 election.

Then, we have Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who would be 79 at the time of the 2020 election.

We also have soon to be former Governor Jerry Brown of California, who would be seven months past 80 at the time of the 2020 election.

Finally, we have former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who would be three months short of 79 when the 2020 election occurs.

So all four would be in their 80s during their first term of office.

All but Bloomberg have actually been Presidential candidates, with Bloomberg flirting with it, but never taking the step.

Biden ran in 1988 and 2008, while Sanders ran in 2016, and Brown in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

The least likely to announce is Brown, but knowing his past history, who can say he would not announce?

Bloomberg seems second least likely to run, but is spending $80 million to help Democrats win the midterm elections in Congress and the states.

Both Biden and Sanders seem certainly to announce, in a field that could include more than 10 potential candidates.

If one had to project whether any of these four men might actually be the Democratic nominee, it would be Joe Biden, who is the most centrist of the four.

With both Sanders and Bloomberg being “independent”, outside the party membership, and both very unwilling to compromise or negotiate with party leaders, and with the Democrats insisting that only party members run for the White House, there would be massive conflict with either trying to take the Democratic nomination for the Presidency.

Truthfully, the best scenario would be a “NEW GENERATION”, someone in their 40s, 50s, or low to mid 60s, becoming the future of the party, rather than an “old timer”, who we would need to worry about more than normally, as to who their Vice President was, since the odds of an octogenarian serving a full term in the Presidency, would be quite a gamble!

State Politics Much More Complicated Than Often Realized: The Cases Of New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, California

Anyone who follows American politics historically and contemporarily often seems unaware of the complexity of state politics around the nation.

We hear discussion of “Blue” states and “Red” states, but state politics is much more complicated that that.

Gerrymandering often distorts the reality of political loyalties in many states, and also the reality of about one third of voters being “Independent”, rather than loyal to Democrats or Republicans.

There are many examples of this across the nation, particularly noticeable in larger, more populated states.

Just a few examples:

New York State is often thought to be strongly Democratic, but not true in the state legislature, and New York City is vastly different in political culture from upstate New York areas, such as Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Even Long Island, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, often reflect different views than the five boroughs of New York City, and within New York City, Staten Island, is vastly different from Manhattan, the Bronx, and Brooklyn, with Queens County more balanced than the other boroughs in the city.

Pennsylvania is a state where gerrymandering has given the Republicans until now a great advantage, but new court ordered mandates may change that balance in Congress and the state legislature. Philadelphia has a very different political orientation than western Pennsylvania, often called “Alabama” outside of the city of Pittsburgh.

Virginia is well known to have a very liberal Democratic northern section (often called NoVa), reflecting the influence of being the Washington DC suburbs, while much of the rest of the state is reliably conservative and Republican.

Florida is strongly Democratic in the southern counties, particularly Broward and Palm Beach Counties, with somewhat less so in Miami Dade County due to the influence of Cuban Americans, but even that is diminishing, since it is now 60 years since the rise of Fidel Castro, and those directly affected negatively by Castro, are mostly no longer part of the population in Miami. At the same time, Central Florida is the real battleground in the state, the area that decides most elections. North Florida is much like Alabama or Georgia, its neighbors.

Ohio is strongly Democratic in the northern and central sections, particularly in Cleveland and Toledo, and the capital of Columbus, but in the more rural parts and in southern Ohio, near Kentucky, including Cincinnati, it is strongly Republican.

Illinois is dominated by Chicago in the northern part, but down state Illinois is much more Republican in orientation.

Michigan has Detroit as strongly Democratic but in western and northern Michigan, it is much more rural and Republican.

Texas has Democratic strongholds in the state capitol, Austin, and in Houston, while other portions of this very large state, including the rural areas, are strongly Republican.

California has Democratic strongholds in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but the Central Valley, San Diego, and cities like Bakersfield, where House Majority Leader and possible next Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy resides, are strongly Republican.

The next race for the Speaker of the House could be between two Californians of totally different mentalities–Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield.

A basic reality is that urban areas are always much more likely to be Democratic while rural areas are certain to be more Republican.

Suburban areas are what often decides the politics of a state and in Congress and the Presidential election, as they are the balancing force that determines a state vote, and recently it seems clear the suburban areas, often Republican, are starting to move away from that long time loyalty.

Democratic Victories In Virginia, New Jersey, And Elsewhere Sign Of Repudiation Of Trump, And Beginning Of Impeachment Move

Yesterday was a glorious day for Democrats across the board.

Ralph Northam won the Virginia Governorship, and the Democrats also won the Lieutenant Governorship and State Attorney Generalship, as as well as switch the control of the House Of Delegates in a massive defeat for Republicans. The Lieutenant Governor is Justin Fairfax, first African American in that position in Virginia history.

A transgender woman in Virginia defeated a rabid homophobe for a seat in the House of Delegates. And the boyfriend of a woman murdered on live television in 2015, ran on the gun issue and won a seat in the House of Delegates in her memory. Two Latinas were also elected to the House of Delegates, as well as a Vietnamese Asian American woman for the first time in Virginia.

New Jersey saw the repudiation of Chris Christie’s lieutenant governor, by Democrat Phil Murphy. And an African American woman was elected Lieutenant Governor.

Maine expanded Medicaid over the objections of right wing bully Republican Governor Paul Le Page.

New Hampshire saw Manchester’s Mayoralty fall to the Democratic nominee.

Minneapolis, Minnesota City Council saw the election of a transgender African American woman.

St. Paul, Minnesota and Helena, Montana elected African Americans to the Mayoralty of both cities, a first for both .

Charlotte, North Carolina Mayoralty went to an African American woman.

Two small cities in Georgia elected an African American woman Mayor, and two African American men won that office, one in a city in Georgia, and one in South Carolina.

Hoboken, New Jersey elected a man of the Sikh religion as its Mayor.

A woman was elected Nassau County, New York (on Long Island) County Executive for the first time, and a rare case of a Democrat winning that position.

The State Senate in Washington State went to a Democratic majority, making the entire Pacific Coast “Blue”, in California, Oregon and Hawaii, along with Washington State.

City Mayors, all Democrats, were reelected in New York City, Boston, and Detroit and a lesbian Mayor elected in Seattle, among other places.

Growing numbers of incumbent Republicans are deciding not to run for reelection, creating more open seats and making likelihood of Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in 2018 much more likely.

Suburban areas across the nation are growing more Democratic on paper, after massive victories all over the nation.

Northern Virginia has become more powerful in numbers and percentage, overcoming southern and western sections of Virginia, making Virginia clearly a Blue State in the future.

With many Republicans now planning to retire, expect more criticism of Donald Trump, and a growing shift toward impeachment of Trump, since retiring politicians have an independence not seen otherwise, so just as John McCain. Jeff Flake. and Bob Corker have come out against Trump, more can be expected in both houses of Congress.

And for many Republicans who remain, they may prefer Mike Pence in the White House when they are running for reelection, and since Trump shows no loyalties to the party which gave him their nomination, why should they feel an obligation to support him through thick and thin?

Migration Of Puerto Ricans To US Mainland Will Transform Florida Politics Over Next Few Years In Favor Of Democratic Party

It is predictable, that as a result of Hurricane Maria devastating Puerto Rico, we will see a massive migration of people from Puerto Rico to the mainland Unites States.

As citizens of the United States, all that it takes is a plane or ship trip to the mainland, and they are not immigrants.

The vast majority of migrating Puerto Ricans are likely to end up in Central Florida, around Orlando and Tampa, where recent settlement of Puerto Ricans has gone in the past few years.

Some will also also settle in South Florida as well, and additionally, many will go to New York City, where the original major population from decades ago from the island settled.

Some will end up in New Jersey, and in Philadelphia and Chicago, as major metropolitan areas.

The effect of this Puerto Rican population wave will have a dramatic effect on Florida politics, as long as these migrants choose to vote, after they have seen the lack of consideration or concern by President Donald Trump toward their island.

In general, Puerto Ricans, as other Hispanic groups, except Cubans, tend to vote Democratic historically.

So already, there are signs that Florida Governor Rick Scott, planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson for his Senate seat next year, is showing signs of interest and concern about welcoming these migrants.

One can be sure that Scott is playing politics, as he still remains one of the absolutely worst Governors in America, and has shown little interest in any kind of assistance to the poor, minorities and making life better for Floridians, other than the wealthy.

But it is clear cut that we might see a major transformation in Florida politics, which could help swing the national election for President in future years in favor of the Democrats, as Florida had the third most electoral votes and will have more by the 2024 and 2028 elections.

Absolutely No Excuse Or Justification For Any Delay In Presidential, Congressional, Or State Elections: The History Of 1812, 1864, 1916, 1940, 1944, 1962!

It has been bandied about that there might be a delay or cancellation of the Presidential Election of 2020, or of Congressional or state elections in 2018 and or 2020 in case of a national emergency of some type, such as another September 11 attack.

This is coming from the extreme Right Wing forces, many who spread the falsity that Barack Obama might cancel the Presidential Election of 2016 and stay on in office.

Let everyone know there is absolutely no excuse or justification for ANY delay in ANY elections, other than if there were to be an attack right at the time of the elections, as occurred in New York City on Primary Day on September 11, 2001, forcing a delay of a couple of weeks due to the immediacy of the situation.

We had national and state elections in 1812 during the War of 1812.

We had national and state elections in 1864, in the height of the Civil War.

We had national and state elections in 1916, as the nation was moving toward possible war engagement in the First World War.

We had national and state elections in 1940, as World War II hovered, and in 1944, after D Day that June.

We had elections in 1962, only days after the Cuban Missile Crisis in October.

We will not accept any possibility of our election process being any more corrupted, than it has been by Russian collusion in the 2016 Presidential election, and we will hold the 45th President accountable for his actions against our democratic system of government, by removing him from office!

Donald Trump Rejects The Paris Climate Deal, A Tragedy Long Term For America And The World!

Donald Trump has just done the most disastrous long term action so far in his Presidency. by rejecting the Paris Climate Deal!

His own daughter, Ivanka, could not get through to him, and neither could Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; thousands of climate scientists; and hundreds of corporations, including Shell Oil and Exxon Oil, where Tillerson was once its leader.

It is a smack in the face to the entire world, with 195 countries having agreed to it, and only Syria and Nicaragua not taking part, and in the case of Nicaragua, they rejected the deal as too weak and wanted a stronger deal. So only a nation in the midst of a long civil war has refused to cooperate, as millions are dying, being wounded, or fleeing for their lives in that tragic war in Syria.

Trump is rejecting science, and allowing Scott Pruitt, his despicable head of the Environmental Protection Agency, and White House Advisor Stephen Bannon, to control his decision.

Trump will be condemned in history for this dastardly act, and his super nationalistic view reeks of Fascism, and it must be bitterly opposed by marches and demonstrations, and the push to defeat every Republican in Congress who supports what Trump has done.

Trump is showing no concern for future generations, and we will see over this century the eventual flooding of such cities as New York City, Boston, Miami, and New Orleans, and his legacy will be that he helped to cause this to occur.

Politicians go to doctors for medical treatment, for their expertise, so why not have politicians leave it to scientists to warn us what we must do to prevent climate change and global warming from destroying the nation and the world?

Imagine if Franklin D. Roosevelt had rejected the advice of Albert Einstein about nuclear weapons in 1939, because after all, one cannot see the atom visually!

America has given up world leadership, and will pay long term for our isolationism, and whatever can be done to reverse this crazy decision legally and politically over the next few years must be done!

How selfish and self serving can a President be? And Trump says the world will laugh at us if we do not rescind the Paris agreement, as the world is taking advantage of us, when in fact, the world is laughing at his stupidity and ignorance precisely because he has made this despicable decision!

Presidential Vacations: Obama $96 Million Over 8 Years, Trump $18 Million Over Two Months, Nine Times As Much, On Way To $1 Billion If Trump Is President For 8 Years!

When Barack Obama was President for eight years, Donald Trump criticized his vacations to Hawaii, and what he called the waste caused taxpayers by any other vacations he took in other locations.

Obama vacations cost $96 million over eight years.

Now in two months, Trump, with five vacations to his Palm Beach estate, has spent $18 million taxpayer dollars, so therefore, he is at a clip that, if continued, will mean that he will have spent nine times as much funding over a potential eight years, god forbid, so nearing $1 BILLION dollars of taxpayer money.

And the fact that his wife and their young son remain in Trump Tower means the Secret Service must protect THREE locations–the White House, NYC, and Palm Beach, Florida.

His trips to Palm Beach and in NYC are causing massive expenses to the local economy, and also incurring massive traffic delays.

Lantana Airport near Palm Beach has been forced to shut down, and is suffering economically when Trump visits.

Palm Beach may be required to tax its citizens further for the security costs of all these Presidential visits.

Additionally, during the two months of the transition until the inauguration, NYC spend $24 million protecting Trump Tower, and now wants the US government or Trump himself to pay up, as it is unfair that local taxpayers must pay the bill.

Trump has no concern at all at the inconveniences and costs caused by him, even though he could easily afford to share the costs out of his own pocket.

And even his adult children, when they are on business for the Trump Organization, have Secret Service details, and one trip by Eric Trump to Uruguay cost an estimated $98,000, paid by American taxpayers.

If this is not abuse, what is?

Pope Francis: A Gift To The World And Supporter Of Progressive Causes Shared With Barack Obama!

Pope Francis has arrived in the United States, and will be here for six days, traveling to Washington, DC, New York City, and Philadelphia.

It is clear that Pope Francis is a gift to the world and a supporter of progressive causes that he often shares with President Barack Obama!

This Pope is, clearly, the best Pope in the sense of promoting reform, since the time of Pope John XXIII (1958-1963) and the Second Vatican Council.

Pope Francis has made enemies among conservative Catholics and evangelical right wing Christians, who do not pursue the true message of Jesus Christ, the promotion of the poor and the disabled and the sick.

Pope Francis has condemned predatory capitalism which has no concern as to its effect on the poor.

Pope Francis has spoken up on climate change and global warming, infuriating those in the conservative movement and the Republican Party who only think about profits, and reject science.

Pope Francis has attacked the growing income inequality in the world, a dangerous disease that threatens global stability.

Pope Francis has worked to resolve problems in the Catholic Church, and to have a more open mind on divorce, abortion, gay rights, and other controversial social issues, while not wholly backing all of these cultural changes.  But he has demonstrated greater tolerance of differences and opened up a sense of change, which is desperately needed in the Catholic Church, if it is to grow and prosper in the long term.

Pope Francis has engaged in bringing about the restoration of a relationship between the United States and Cuba, something long overdue.

Pope Francis has worked to help Syrian refugees, and generally to encourage immigration reform around the world, as to reject immigrants is against the American historical tradition, and worldwide would be the growth of another Holocaust, as Jews and other refugees suffered in the Second World War.

Pope Francis is a transformational Pope who, hopefully, will have a long range effect on the Catholic Church and the world.

Pope Francis has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, and it is hoped that he will win it, as he richly deserves it!

September 11: 14 Years And Counting!

It is hard to believe, but it is now 14 years since September 11, a day which will live in the memories of every American old enough to remember.

September 11 transformed America permanently, and it has led to a constant war on terror and terrorists, which will go on endlessly, sad to say, as the terrorists are out there, and ready to take action at any time.

September 11 has made America a security conscious nation which has limited our freedoms, and made us a nation always on the edge.

It will be a part of our lives for eternity, as December 7, 1941 is for those still alive who remember the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

But September 11 was a time of death of civilians, not military personnel, and it was in New York City and Washington, DC on the mainland, not in Hawaii, three thousand miles away from the mainland of America.

Despite all of the divisiveness politically over the past 14 years, for a short time back then, there was unity, and we have been fortunate to avoid another September 11 attack, but must be constantly vigilant.

Today is a day to remember the sacrifices of the police and firefighters who gave their lives that September morning, and who remain in our hearts with a feeling of love and respect!

“Non Politicians”–Presidential Winners And A Few Presidential Nominees

With three Republican Presidential candidates for 2016 being “non politicians”, people who have never served in a government position on the city, state or national level, the issue arises: have there been any other such candidates in the past?

It turns out that we have had several military generals who never served in a civilian position, that could qualify as “non politicians”.

This includes the following:

Zachary Taylor 1848 (Mexican War)

Winfield Scott 1852 (Mexican War)

George McClellan 1864 (Civil War)

Ulysses S. Grant 1868, 1872 (Civil War)

Winfield Scott Hancock 1880 (Civil War)

Taylor and Grant were elected, while Scott, McClellan, and Hancock were defeated in their attempts to become President.

McClellan did serve as Governor of New Jersey from 1878-1881, AFTER running for President against Abraham Lincoln.  But Taylor, Scott, Grant and Hancock never ran for public office.

Additionally, Horace Greeley, the New York Tribune publisher, ran for President in 1872, as the candidate of the Democratic Party and the breakaway group in the Republican Party opposed to Grant’s reelection, known as the “Liberal Republicans”.  He served very briefly as an appointed member of the House of Representatives, but not by vote of the people, but rather a choice of Whig Party leaders to fill a short term replacement before the election for the next term in Congress.  He served a total of only three months from December 1848 to March 1849, and did not run for the New York City seat.  Technically, one could say he had that political experience, but so little in time, that he could be seen as basically a “non politician” when he ran for President 24 years later, although being the editor of the New York Tribune was certainly “political” in nature.

Then we have Wall Street industrialist and businessman Wendell Willkie, who ran against Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, after stirring the Republican National Convention and overcoming much better known Presidential candidates, but while running a good race, he lost, and then supported the World War II effort and cooperated with FDR until Willkie died in late 1944.

And finally, we have billionaire Ross Perot, who ran for President as an independent in 1992 and as the Reform Party candidate in 1996.

So only Zachary Taylor and Ulysses S. Grant were “non politicians” who were elected President.

The odds of Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, or Dr. Benjamin Carson being elected President in 2016, therefore, are astronomical!