New Hampshire Primary

Can Michael Bloomberg Ignore Iowa And New Hampshire And Have A Chance To Be The Democratic Presidential Nominee?

The quick answer to the above question is YES, but it would be a tragedy for the nation if simply having billions of dollars fortune, and spending tens of millions of dollars to run commercials, was able to elect a President.

Michael Bloomberg was an effective NYC Mayor for three terms, but he was also controversial with some of his policies, including his dealings with racial minorities, and his trying to control the size of soda bottles and other sugary drinks.

On the other hand, he has promoted gun control, and fought against tobacco and oil interests, and is a big promoter of taking action on climate change.

And he is certainly an arrogant man, who thinks he can “own” his employees and control what his journalists at Bloomberg News report and investigate.

The fact that he has gained a few percent of the vote due to his spending $57 million on commercials, while Kamala Harris was forced out of the Presidential race for lack of funding, is totally infuriating.

This is the result of the disastrous Supreme Court decision in Citizens United in 2011, destroying and corrupting our political system in a despicable manner.

Bloomberg would be a vast improvement over Donald Trump, but seriously, it is hoped that the Democrats will not be manipulated by his commercials to nominate him. His ability to draw attention from voters, without participating in many caucuses and primaries, and avoiding engagement in debates, should NOT lead to his nomination!

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker: All These Candidates On Free Fall

California Senator Kamala Harris, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker are all in free fall as Presidential candidates.

Raising money, doing well in polls, and stirring media interest has been very difficult, and unless the situation changes drastically in the next two months, it could be some of these potential candidates may not survive to the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, and certainly not beyond then.

Any of these candidates could still, theoretically, be in the running for becoming the Vice Presidential choice of the Presidential candidate, of course.

But it is reaching the time when the number of candidates needs to dwindle down dramatically, in order for the Democrats to have competitive candidates debate in a smaller group, and in a more serious in depth manner.

The Battle For The Moderate Center Among Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg

It is becoming clear that the battle for the Moderate Center in the Democratic Party looks as if it is down to Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg.

So two old guys who would hit 80 in their second year in office or a guy who would reach age 40 in his second year of office!

The trend seems toward Pete, who is gaining nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Joe will probably not triumph until at least South Carolina, and Bloomberg is expecting his media advertising to insure he will do well on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the women in the race, particularly Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have slipped, while Amy Klobuchar is gaining slightly, but still not a major factor at this point.

Of course, trying to predict what will happen in February and March in late November-early December is not reliable, but it is all part of the fun of watching a Presidential race!

The Two Democrats Who Might Replace Joe Biden, And Both Are From The Midwest Battleground

Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.

Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.

Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.

So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

Still Early, But Beto O’Rourke Seems To Have Fizzled After Early Boost In Presidential Polls

Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, Texas, who ran a tight race against Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, seemed to be a “hot’ candidate for President as a result, and when he announced his candidacy, his star rose to be in the top few of the multitude of candidates.

But now, recently, his star has declined, and he is no longer seen as being as likely a nominee as some might have thought in the early months of 2019.

A lot of this transformation seems due to the brilliant start of former Vice President Joe Biden, who has soared in the polls since his announcement for President a few weeks ago.

Also, the interest demonstrated in South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has interfered with O’Rourke’s campaign.

Additionally, California Senator Kamala Harris has also been doing quite well, right up there with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has been also in decline.

All of this is, of course, no proof that any of these named candidates will not have ups and downs over the next months until the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary come in February.

And someone not in the top few in polls now could emerge as the choice of the Democratic Party ultimately, but at least for now, O’Rourke has declined, but time will tell whether the decline is temporary or permanent.

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

Can Bernie Sanders Win The Nomination Of The Democratic Party This Time?

With Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders having announced his candidacy for President for the second time, the question arises whether he can win the Democratic nomination and go on to residence in the Oval Office in 2021.

It is clear that this eventuality could indeed happen, but there are many obstacles to success.

Sanders is not a Democrat, but instead an Independent Socialist who allies with the Democrats in the Senate, while going back and forth from the party to Independent status, although now he is again leagued with the party for this upcoming election battle.

Sanders, being Jewish, although not at all devout, might face antisemitic attacks from white supremacists.

The Republican Party is already on the attack against Sanders, and the Democrats, as being the dirty word–“Socialist”–but hopefully it will have little to no effect on the people of America, as so much of what we have in the nation today is related to Socialist programs.

Also, Sanders will be 79 and four months old at the time of the next Presidential inauguration, and is the oldest potential nominee, more than a year older than former Vice President Joe Biden, who is more centrist than Sanders.

Also, Sanders has competition from others seen as being on the far left of the Democratic Party, particularly the case with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is about eight years younger than Sanders, and also from New England.

The New Hampshire primary, which Sanders won in 2016, will be tougher to win with Warren competing, along with many others.

However, in the first 12 hours after his announcement, Sanders raised $4 million, more than twice what California Senator Kamala Harris was able to raise.

Sanders, with his platform of $15 minimum wage, Medicare for All, and free public college tuition, along with support for aggressive climate change action, will certainly enliven the campaign of 2020, no matter what happens.

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).