New Hampshire Primary

Early Caucuses And Primaries Favor Different Democratic Presidential Nominees

A year from now, the early Presidential caucuses and primaries create a situation where different candidates may have an edge, and are likely to create more complications in deciding who will gain and who will lose favor.

The Iowa Caucuses might favor Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

The New Hampshire Primary might favor Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The Nevada Caucuses might favor California Senator Kamala Harris or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

The South Carolina Primary might favor either New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or California Senator Kamala Harris, with its heavily African American Democratic membership in that Southern state.

On Super Tuesday, March 3, Harris might be favored in her home state of California; and former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro or former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke might have the edge in Texas.

As the month of March wears on, with a number of Midwestern primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, Klobuchar and Brown would seem to have the edge, assuming no one has become the obvious Presidential choice after Super Tuesday, as at least seven other primaries are conducted that day.

Of course, based on past elections, it could be that the nominee would be decided simply by the large number of states conducting their primaries on March 3 (at least 9 states, including the giant ones of California and Texas).

A Potential Way For Democrats To Win White Working Class Vote Of Midwest And Pennsylvania In 2020: A Ticket Of Joe Biden And Sherrod Brown!

Face the facts: The 2020 Presidential race has begun, as several politicians in both parties, and even Donald Trump, have started to appear in Iowa and or New Hampshire, the first caucus and first primary state respectively.

There is a myriad of potential candidates for the Democrats, but the thought comes to mind that the Democrats cannot afford to sacrifice the white working class of the Midwest and Pennsylvania, which were lost by Hillary Clinton by small margins in 2016.

And when one thinks about the wide variety of nominees, the thought that comes to mind, at least to this observer, is that a ticket that could win the vote that gave Donald Trump the victory in the Electoral College in 2016, is:

FORMER VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN OF DELAWARE
SENATOR SHERROD BROWN OF OHIO

Biden and Brown, the KILLER BEES, were both under consideration in 2016, but Biden did not run due to the death of his son Beau Biden, and Brown was on a short list for Hillary Clinton, but Tim Kaine was selected instead.

Both Biden and Brown have made their careers to a great extent on the backing and support of the white working class, from which both came, and which both understand, and it is part of their “blood”, so to speak.

Brown must win his Senate seat in Ohio this November, but is favored, and has expressed interest before in higher office, and he has served two terms in the Senate, and 14 years before that in the House of Representatives, and also served as Ohio Secretary of State for eight years before coming to Congress. He also served in the Ohio legislature for eight years before that. So he has vast experience, being in elected office 42 of the past 44 years, since 1975

And of course, Joe Biden sought the Presidency in 1988 and 2008, and is superbly qualified for the White House with 36 years in the Senate and eight as the most active and involved Vice President in history, shared with Walter Mondale under President Jimmy Carter, having served a total of 44 years from 1973 to 2017.

When have we had two people on a national ticket, each with 44 years in office by 2020? NEVER, and both are solid progressives who care about the American people!

Both Brown and Biden are aggressive campaigners, and great orators, and would know how to take the fight to Donald Trump, Mike Pence, or any other Republican nominee for President.

Ohio is the crucial state in so many elections, and Brown could bring the whole Midwest and Pennsylvania to the Democrats, and Biden knows how to appeal to the struggling white working class.

Of course, many will say Joe Biden will be too old at age 78, and that Sherrod Brown at age 68 makes for an old ticket, and that no women or minorities or younger nominees would have the opportunity to be the nominees in a nation that is leaning toward a more diverse future. But Joe Biden’s wife, Jill Biden, a community college professor, and Brown’s wife, Connie Schultz, a well respected journalist who won the Pulitzer Prize for commentary in 2005, would also add to the campaign as future First Lady and Second Lady of the land. Schultz has focused on the underdog and underprivileged in her journalism career, and is now Professor of Journalism at Kent State University, after years of being a journalist at the Cleveland Plain Dealer newspaper.

The first goal is to WIN the White House, and it is hard to argue against the idea that a Biden-Brown ticket could bring success.

March 3, 2020 Becomes Key Presidential Nomination Day: Could Help California Democrat To Become Presidential Nominee

More than ever, “Super Tuesday”, March 3, 2020, will be THE most crucial day in the Presidential primaries for the 2020 Presidential campaign.

As things now stand, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will continue to be the first states to hold primaries or caucuses before March–with a multitude of states holding their primaries the first Tuesday in March.

In 2016, New Hampshire and South Carolina held primaries, and Iowa and Nevada held caucuses. Eleven states held contests on the first Tuesday in March, which was March 1, with nine holding primaries and two holding caucuses.

Now, however, California has moved its primary from June to March 3, 2020, and being the biggest state in population, it will have a far greater impact than it has had in June, when the nominations of both parties had already been settled earlier.

It should make the Democratic nominee more likely to be to the left of center, rather than centrist, and the Republican nominee to be more likely to be centrist conservative than a right wing conservative.

The pressure for earlier declarations of candidacy and for more campaigning throughout 2019 will be great.

On first thoughts, it would seem that any of three California Democrats might have the edge for the Presidential nomination, and that the three–Senator Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and presumed Governor Gavin Newsom, presently Lieutenant Governor of the state–would have a battle royale as to which would be the strongest and most likely challenger.

But also, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders might also have the edge, as things stand now.

The Republicans would probably, assuming Donald Trump is not in the White House, have a good opportunity for a John Kasich or Jon Huntsman, the two most moderate conservative candidates in 2016 and 2012 respectively, to have an edge.

But, of course, trying to project two and a half years from now is a pure guessing game, but fun to speculate about!

The Incongruity: Second Most Prominent “First Lady” Challenged For Presidency Twice By “Unlikely” Rivals, And Could Lose Chance To Be First Woman President!

When history is written, the incongruity of what has been happening will make a great tale.

The second most prominent “First Lady” in American history is challenged for Presidency twice by “unlikely” rivals, and could lose her chance to be the first woman President.

The first time, a first term African American Senator from Illinois, with an African name and the middle name “Hussein” challenges this “First Lady”, and ends up as the 44th President of the United States, and employs the former “First Lady” as his Secretary of State.

The second time, after having served as Secretary of State. the former “First Lady” is challenged for the Presidency by an elderly Jewish Senator with strong democratic Socialist views, an independent from the small state of Vermont, and defeats her in New Hampshire, and could go on to be the 45h President of the United States!

Never before had we seen a woman seen as so serious a challenger for the Presidency!  Never had we seen an African American President!  Never had we seen a man over 70 by five years, and with clear but Socialist views, and of the Jewish faith, on the road to possible election as President of the United States!

American politics continues to be unpredictable!

John Kasich Offers Sanity To The Republican Party, But Other Candidates Need To Drop Out!

With the second place finish of Ohio Governor John  Kasich in the New Hampshire Republican primary, the Republican Party has been given a lifeline to avoid the total disaster of Donald Trump!

But this requires other candidates to drop out, including Dr. Benjamin Carson, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio in particular, as all have failed to prove they are electable.

Ted Cruz should also drop out, as it is clear legally that he was born in Canada, and cannot, therefore, become President.

Were this to occur, it would leave the race as three men–Donald Trump, Kasich and Jeb Bush, and that would be good for the party, and would insure that Trump would not be the GOP nominee for President.

Whether one agrees or not with any of the candidates, it is clear that Kasich more so, Bush less so, would, ultimately have the best opportunity to keep the Republican party viable in the future, as both would promote mainstream conservatism, instead of the right wing extremism promoted by other candidates.

The spotlight, whatever happens with others dropping out of the race, will be on Kasich, and it would seem his chances of ending up as the GOP nominee have been greatly improved, as the Ohio Governor now seems very electable!

The Comeuppance Of Donald Trump; And Hillary Clinton Barely Survives!

So the voters  in Iowa, the small percentage who actually voted, have made their judgment!

It is true that more Iowans participated in the caucuses than ever before, but still less than a quarter of eligible people voted.

But what they have wrought is stunning beyond belief!

Donald Trump got his comeuppance, and it will be interesting to see his public reaction and behavior during this week before the New Hampshire Primary.

Ted Cruz may have won, but he will be bitterly opposed by mainstream Republicans, who are likely to converge around Marco Rubio after New Hampshire, with only John Kasich seen as a possible challenger to Kasich for the mainstream, depending on what happens next week!

Hillary Clinton barely survived, and Bernie Sanders now has a direct challenge to her in New Hampshire, which he is favored to win easily, but the question is whether he can survive beyond that as a viable Democratic candidate.

The odds of Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton as the party nominees, which this blogger predicted on December 31 on here, seems more likely than ever, with Ohio as the crucial battleground, and the reason why this blogger believes John Kasich and Sherrod Brown will be the Vice Presidential choices of the nominees this summer!

If Hillary Clinton Loses Iowa Caucuses, Full Panic Mode Is In Effect, And Joe Biden, John Kerry, Or Al Gore Might Enter Presidential Race!

If Hillary Clinton loses the Iowa Caucuses tonight, full panic mode is in effect, and one of the following might enter the Presidential race belatedly:

Vice President Joe Biden; Secretary of State John Kerry; Former Vice President Al Gore

It is claimed that Hillary will not be in panic mode if she loses tonight, but to lose tonight AND New Hampshire next week, if it happens, will be a major blow no matter what future states might do!

Bernie Sanders has great ideas, but despite polls that show him beating Donald Trump and other Republicans, it is hard to believe that will happen, as Sanders’ background as a democratic Socialist will be made to look as if he is a Communist, with the hammer and sickle emblem to be planted on all commercials and in all speeches by Trump or any other GOP Presidential nominee!

Sanders is, sadly, reminiscent of South Dakota Senator George McGovern, a wonderful human being with great ideas, who defeated Establishment favorite Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine in 1972, and then was smashed by a landslide of epic proportions, 49 states, by flawed President Richard Nixon, soon forced out of the Presidency due to the Watergate scandal.  But the Nixon campaign was able to make McGovern out to be an extreme leftist, and the Democrats went into eclipse, and moderation took over with Jimmy Carter in 1976.

It is very sad, but already Trump is labeling Sanders a Communist, and for the ignorant population of much of America, that will be enough to make it impossible for Sanders to win the White House!

And as said before many times, the Supreme Court future is at stake, so we may yet see other Democrats enter the race in the near future, IF Hillary has major troubles in the next eight days!

Time Has Arrived For Americans To Show They Will NOT Tolerate Donald Trump, Even If They Like Being At Rallies Of A Reality Star!

Finally, the beginning of voting for President has arrived, with the Iowa Caucuses tomorrow, and the New Hampshire Primary a week from Tuesday the first indications of what the American people, or at least those who vote, are thinking.

Who would have thought that, seven and a half months since Reality Start Donald Trump announced for President, that he would be leading in Republican polls for the Presidency?

This reality is against the record of Donald Trump, which shows he has no principles at all, except his own aggrandizement!

He thinks the Presidency is a Reality TV show, and it is time for the American people, and particularly the Republicans, to show that they have not totally self destructed, and given in to the appeal of a racist, nativist, misogynist, and an immoral, unethical, ignorant person who would be a total disaster for the party and the nation, were he to win the nomination and occupy the Oval Office next January 20!

If Trump were to win the White House, we would have a full fledged Fascist in office, endangering the Constitution and American democratic values, so he must be prevented from making us wish for George W. Bush or Richard Nixon as an alternative!

Being at a campaign rally for a Reality TV star is one thing, but electing such a despicable human being as Donald Trump to the Presidency is something totally different!

Beginning Of Rise Of Sanity? John Kasich Rises In New Hampshire Polls, And Is Endorsed By The Boston Globe!

Could it be that Republican voters in New Hampshire are starting to show some sanity?

The latest public opinion polls show a steady rise by Ohio Governor John Kasich, easily the most experienced, most qualified, and most sane and stable of the Republican Presidential field.

Understand that this blogger is not saying he is about to vote for John Kasich in the election this fall.

But were a Republican to win the White House, he could not live with any feeling of peace with any other GOP Presidential nominee.

Kasich is the best the Republicans have to offer, and he is a mainstream conservative, with faults like all candidates, but also a sense of how to govern, with his 18 years in the House of Representatives, and being Chair of the Budget Committee for many years.  And now the Boston Globe has endorsed him.

And despite issues and objections, Kasich has been one of the few Republican governors that has not been totally outrageous and disgraceful!

Ohio is still the crucial state for Republican Presidential nominees, and Kasich would have a good chance to win his home state, and maybe, therefore, win the Presidency.

Remember that EVERY elected Republican President (all but Gerald Ford) has won Ohio!

 

If Common Sense Reigned, John Kasich Would Be Republican Presidential Nominee! But Will He? Unlikely!

We are in the midst of Republican candidates engaged in mud throwing and character assassination.

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are bitterly engaged in this, but so are Marco Rubio with Jeb Bush, Chris Christie with Marco Rubio, and Carly Fiorina showing an ugly personality of arrogance and inability to tell the truth on anything.

Only one candidate, and a very qualified one, is avoiding the bloodbath going on, but will that mean that common sense will reign, and that Ohio Governor John Kasich will be the Republican Presidential nominee?

Kasich has moved up in New Hampshire, and has a chance to do very well there, while having just about zero chance in evangelical Republican Iowa.

No one matches John Kasich in his total government experience, his knowledge of national and state government, and his rational nature.

This is not saying that John Kasich is an ideal candidate, and most certainly, this blogger would not vote for him, but IF the nation should end up with a Republican President following Barack Obama, there is no better choice than John Kasich, of the candidates who are announced for President on the Republican side of the equation!

This blogger predicted on December 31 the likelihood that Marco Rubio would be the Presidential nominee, and that Kasich would be the Vice Presidential nominee.  That still seems to make sense, and Kasich being on the ticket at either end would be a plus for the GOP, as every Republican President who has ever been elected from Lincoln to George W. Bush has won Ohio, and note that Gerald Ford lost the full term for the Presidency in 1976, greatly due to the failure to defeat Jimmy Carter in Ohio.

So if common sense reigned, Kasich would be the nominee with the best chance to win, but will he?  Highly unlikely!