New Hampshire Primary

The Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Begins As House Appoints Impeachment Managers, And Hands Over The Two Articles Of Impeachment To The Senate

Finally, a month after the House of Representatives adopted two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has appointed seven members of the House to be impeachment managers, and has handed over the two articles of impeachment to the Senate.

More evidence against Donald Trump has emerged, and hopefully, the Republicans in the US Senate will realize the need for new evidence to be allowed, and for witnesses to be brought before the Senate, as Chief Justice John Roberts presides, over what is now the third Presidential impeachment trial in American history.

John Roberts joins Salmon P. Chase in 1868 and William Rehnquist in 1999 in the historic stewardship over the impeachment proceedings, with the President on trial, although not in person, and with the House having impeachment managers to argue the case, and the Senate to act as a jury. All branches of the government are present in the Senate chamber as this trial commences, and lasts a few weeks, likely beyond the Iowa Caucuses on February 3 and the New Hampshire Primary on February 11.

The Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Helps Promote Moderates Over Progressives In Democratic Presidential Competition

Last night’s Iowa Democratic Presidential Debate added “steam” to the belief that moderates are gaining over progressives, based on performance, and also on the reality that the upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial will “bench” the two leading progressives, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, along with Amy Klobuchar and “forgotten” candidate Michael Bennet, giving the edge to Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg.

For a few weeks, beyond Iowa and probably including New Hampshire, those Senators will be unable to campaign in person, a major disadvantage.

It could be that it will have no effect on Iowa or New Hampshire, but the feeling is growing that it might be that a ticket will emerge of Joe Biden for President, with his experience, knowledge, and likability, running with Mayor Pete for Vice President, from the Midwest heartland, and making a major step forward as an openly gay Vice Presidential nominee .

Experience, youth, and likability, all in one ticket!

At the same time, a ticket of Biden with Amy Klobuchar, or a ticket of Pete for President and Amy for VP or vice versa would be fine, too!

The Caucus-Primary System In The Future Needs To Be Reformed

The Caucus-Primary system for Presidential elections needs to be reformed, as it is clear that having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, with both being totally lacking in diversity, is not a system for the long term.

The argument could be that California and Texas should go first, as they are very diverse and together have about 20 percent of the national population.

Add states such as Wisconsin and Virginia, and that would be a good start toward a system that would be much more amenable to the promotion of racial and ethnic diversity in a nation that will be majority non white in a generation. Therefore, it would be more reflective of reality, and allow minority candidates a better chance to survival in the process.

It is sad that Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker have been forced out of the Presidential race for the Democrats, due to lack of financial support. Hopefully, the future can be different.

Iowa Presidential Debate Crucial As Caucuses Are Three Weeks From Today

The Democratic Presidential debate on Tuesday night is crucial as the caucuses near us three weeks from today.

The latest polls indicate close to a four way split, with only five points between first place finisher Bernie Sanders and fourth place finisher Joe Biden.

It is clear anything could happen on February 3, and it could dramatically influence New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada later in February.

We must remember that Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008 went on to the Presidency after winning iowa in those years.

A win in Iowa could lead to victories in New Hampshire and onward, and that, if occurring, could have a dramatic effect on Super Tuesday, when 14 states, including California and Texas, the two largest, vote in primaries and caucuses on March 3.

A failure to end up at least in third place in Iowa would likely be the death knell of a candidacy.

And yet, even Amy Klobuchar, who is not seen seriously right now, but being from neighboring state Minnesota, could surprise us, having visited all 99 counties in Iowa.

So Tuesday’s debate will be a test of how she can perform, along with how Joe Biden will fare, and also whether Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, numbers one and two, treat each other. Additionally, whether Pete Buttigieg, now third in most polls, can compete against his older and more experienced rivals.

How the debate is judged by media will certainly have a dramatic effect on the likely voting lineup on February 3.

But an additional potential influence on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire is the upcoming Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump, which will force Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar off the campaign trail, possibly giving an edge to Biden and Buttigieg.

Iowa A “Free For All” One Month Out From Democratic Presidential Caucuses

One month out from the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucuses, and it is clear that a “Free For All” is developing, with any of five candidates seen as the potential first place finisher.

One poll shows a tie among Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg, but to think that next door Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar should be ignored is an unwise assumption, as she has just completed visiting all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State, and that could lead to a surprise as her stock seems to be rising.

Also, Elizabeth Warren cannot be dismissed, as she is a fighter, and really, anything could happen in Iowa.

At the same time, there is a growing feeling that Bernie Sanders could, in theory, win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, all in February, and with his large financial base from ordinary citizens, he could be the Democratic Presidential nominee, if he does indeed sweep the first three states, as that could create momentum for Super Tuesday on March 3.

Can Michael Bloomberg Ignore Iowa And New Hampshire And Have A Chance To Be The Democratic Presidential Nominee?

The quick answer to the above question is YES, but it would be a tragedy for the nation if simply having billions of dollars fortune, and spending tens of millions of dollars to run commercials, was able to elect a President.

Michael Bloomberg was an effective NYC Mayor for three terms, but he was also controversial with some of his policies, including his dealings with racial minorities, and his trying to control the size of soda bottles and other sugary drinks.

On the other hand, he has promoted gun control, and fought against tobacco and oil interests, and is a big promoter of taking action on climate change.

And he is certainly an arrogant man, who thinks he can “own” his employees and control what his journalists at Bloomberg News report and investigate.

The fact that he has gained a few percent of the vote due to his spending $57 million on commercials, while Kamala Harris was forced out of the Presidential race for lack of funding, is totally infuriating.

This is the result of the disastrous Supreme Court decision in Citizens United in 2011, destroying and corrupting our political system in a despicable manner.

Bloomberg would be a vast improvement over Donald Trump, but seriously, it is hoped that the Democrats will not be manipulated by his commercials to nominate him. His ability to draw attention from voters, without participating in many caucuses and primaries, and avoiding engagement in debates, should NOT lead to his nomination!

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker: All These Candidates On Free Fall

California Senator Kamala Harris, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker are all in free fall as Presidential candidates.

Raising money, doing well in polls, and stirring media interest has been very difficult, and unless the situation changes drastically in the next two months, it could be some of these potential candidates may not survive to the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, and certainly not beyond then.

Any of these candidates could still, theoretically, be in the running for becoming the Vice Presidential choice of the Presidential candidate, of course.

But it is reaching the time when the number of candidates needs to dwindle down dramatically, in order for the Democrats to have competitive candidates debate in a smaller group, and in a more serious in depth manner.

The Battle For The Moderate Center Among Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg

It is becoming clear that the battle for the Moderate Center in the Democratic Party looks as if it is down to Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg.

So two old guys who would hit 80 in their second year in office or a guy who would reach age 40 in his second year of office!

The trend seems toward Pete, who is gaining nationally, and in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Joe will probably not triumph until at least South Carolina, and Bloomberg is expecting his media advertising to insure he will do well on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the women in the race, particularly Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have slipped, while Amy Klobuchar is gaining slightly, but still not a major factor at this point.

Of course, trying to predict what will happen in February and March in late November-early December is not reliable, but it is all part of the fun of watching a Presidential race!