Former Vice President Joe Biden has done poorly in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, being 4th and 5th respectively, and many observers are thinking he is “done”.
Not so fast, as Biden is still favored to win in South Carolina, and in theory, is the only Democrat to have widespread African American support.
And Super Tuesday on March 3 will be the ultimate decider on his fate, as if he performs poorly in the 14 state primaries on that day, then it will be time for him to drop out.
Biden has been trying to be President for a third of a century, longer than any Presidential contender in American history, having first tried in 1988, and then 2008, before now.
He has never come near being a serious potential candidate, and his age is a detriment, plus his seemingly declining public performance.
This blogger and author has been a long time fan and supporter of Joe Biden, who exudes the most important trait any President should have, empathy. He is the kind of person who one could imagine that if he was your neighbor, he would ask if he could help you with anything.
He is a genuine, sincere, decent man, with more experience than any Presidential contender or President ever came with to the Oval Office.
But we know that experience and capability is not always a plus, and that many Presidents we have elected were far from the best choices, but they had the magic and the luck to be able to win.
We may be seeing the final conclusion on the public life of Joe Biden in the next month, but he can still be an adviser or participant under another Democratic President, and of course, he can stay in the public eye through speeches and writings, contributing to public discourse.
And since he is in his late 70s, he can also choose to enjoy his retirement, his family, and recall all of the contributions he made as a six term US Senator, and as one of the best Vice Presidents in American history!
I’m not counting him out yet either.
No More Mister Nice nailed it regarding blacks supporting Bloomberg as an alternative to Biden –
https://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2020/02/if-joe-biden-is-tanking-could-mike.html
I think it’s because black voters fear the consequences of a second Trump term in a way that those of us who are white might not — we know it would be awful, but many of us suspect we’d be somewhat insulated from the worst of it. I think most black voters believe the consequences could be aimed directly at them and the people they care about.
And I think they recognize that Bloomberg loathes Trump — possibly more than any other candidate in the race. He certainly puts that loathing into his ads in a way that the other Democratic candidates don’t.
They may know that Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg are good at raising money, but Bloomberg clearly has serious money. I don’t want to think that only a billionaire can beat Trump, but I can’t blame anyone for believing that that kind of money improves the Democrats’ odds significantly.
Finally, I’ll add that Bloomberg’s ads have a self-assurance that isn’t matched by the real-life and ad personas of the other front-runners. Buttigieg is too polite. Biden stammers and seems to have had the fight knocked out of him. Sanders can rouse a crowd, but if you’re not already impressed, he comes off as a rumpled grump. Sad to say, Warren and Amy Klobuchar suffer because of the widespread fear, however unjustified, that running a woman didn’t work last time.
Which 2020 candidate can you imagine fitting into this meme? — see photo in article saying “Everyone Chill The F– Out, I Got This”
Bloomberg’s ads make him seem as if he could. I don’t blame black voters if they think they need someone who’s “got this” — who acts as if he knows how to win, who can win white voters while saying enough of the things black voters need to hear. I don’t know whether the real-life Bloomberg can live up to his ads. But I understand why, at this moment, he might seem like the best bet.
That blog nails what I’ve been thinking as well. Especially after the Twitter feud Bloomberg got into with Trump today. Bloomberg knows how to hit back at Trump hard, which is what people were expecting to see Biden do.
Ronald writes,
“Former Vice President Joe Biden has done poorly in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, being 4th and 5th respectively, and many observers are thinking he is ‘done’.â€
The 50 states and District of Columbia, as we have of course in United States presidential elections, have been participating in presidential primaries since 1976 (Democrats) and 1980 (Republicans).
I looked into this and set aside the election cycles in which an incumbent Republican or Democratic U.S. president won re-election (1984, 1996, 2004, and 2012).
With the first two contests having been held in recent times in Iowa and New Hampshire (not always the case), only 1992 Democratic candidate Bill Clinton finished in fourth place in Iowa and went on to win the nomination from his party. He did not win New Hampshire. But, Clinton finished in second place and, between the first two contests, was closer to prevailing in the Granite State. The 1992 Iowa Democratic caucuses was won by home-state son and then-U.S. senator Tom Harkin (first elected in 1984; he garnered 76.55 percent of the vote; other candidates basically conceded Iowa to Harkin). The 1992 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary was won by Paul Tsongas, then-U.S. senator from neighboring Massachusetts (he was first elected as he unseated Edward Brooke in 1978). Clinton went on to unseat George Bush in the 1992 United States presidential election. Tsongas died at age 55 in 1997. (February 14 would have been his 79th birthday.)
Under the modern presidential-nominating system, there was no other presidential candidate who finished fourth in Iowa—and then finished fifth in New Hampshire—who went on to win the nomination from his/her political party.
Ronald writes,
“Not so fast, as Biden is still favored to win in South Carolina, and in theory, is the only Democrat to have widespread African American support.â€
Here is an update!
These tweets, on February 13, 2020, come from MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki:
☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1228035418261770240?s=20
A Morning Consult national poll conducted the day after the NH primary shows:
Sanders 29%
Biden 19%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 11%
Warren 10%
Klobuchar 5%
☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1228036582994784256?s=20
From Morning Consult poll:
Black
Biden 34%
Sanders 30%
Bloomberg 19%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 1%
White
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 19%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 7%
Hispanic
Sanders 48%
Bloomberg 17%
Biden 13%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 7%
Klobuchar 3%
Trump’s insults about Bloomberg may be a sign that he is worried about Bloomberg.
Rush Limpbag, who definitely does not deserve a Presidential medal of any kind, made homophobic remarks about Buttigieg this week.
Bernie’s base is young and very liberal. I have my doubts that he can expand beyond that to win against Trump in the general election. I fear he’s going to be another George McGovern.
Former Republican – We’re all suffering from Trump Anxiety Disorder, which includes the fear that Trump will win again.
Former Republican, I loved George McGovern a half century ago.
But that is exactly what I fear, that Sanders could be another McGovern!