Latinos

Orange County California, Reagan And Goldwater Stronghold, Goes Completely Democratic In Midterm Elections Of 2018

Orange County California, with a population of about three million people, sandwiched between Los Angeles and San Diego, has long been conservative Republican “Country”, but in the Midterm Elections of 2018, all of the Congressional districts went to the Democrats, a startling development.

The heroes of Orange County have been Ronald Reagan, and before him, Barry Goldwater, and Democrats knew they had no opportunity to succeed in that Southern California bastion.

But now, not only did Democrats gain all four seats in that county, but also won seven of the 14 formerly Republican held seats in the California state delegation, making for a total of 46-7, compared to the former 39-14 division between Democrats and Republicans.

The Republican nominee for Governor, John Cox, lost Orange County by a hair to incoming Governor Gavin Newsom as well.

The Republican Party is dead in California for now, although the House Minority Leader is Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield.

It all started 25 years ago when the Republicans promoted nativism and bigotry under Governor Pete Wilson against Latinos and other immigrants, and started their generation long decline in the Golden State.

The same is likely in the future for Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida, and if these named states start to veer to the Democrats, which is likely in the 2020s, then the Democrats will have a lock on the Electoral College, after being victimized twice in 2000 and 2016.

Final Projection On The 2018 Midterm Elections: Democratic House And Senate, And Massive Gain In Democratic Governors

The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.

The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.

But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.

It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.

The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.

That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.

And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.

But my inner being tells me the following:

There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.

In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.

As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.

On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.

So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.

This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!

As 2017 Ends, Trump Approval Rating In Rapid Decline, And Democrats In Rapid Rise Among Major Voting Groups

As 2017 ends, Donald Trump is in free fall in his approval rating.

CNN has just come up with new figures that show the Trump base is rapidly declining in its support of the person they backed in 2016.

The approval rating overall has dropped to an all time low of 32 percent from a high in February of 39 percent right after Trump’s inauguration.

Republicans have dropped from 84 percent to 76 percent in their support, shocking in the fact it has not dropped much more, and a sign that the GOP might be in its death knell, as many observers have predicted.

Men have declined in support from 45 percent to 40 percent.

Whites support for Trump dropped from 49 percent to 41 percent.

Those over 50 years of age declined in support of Trump from 47 percent to 38 percent.

White Evangelicals, a major part of Trump support, despite the hypocrisy involved, went from 78 percent to 61 percent.

And White Non College support went from 56 percent to 46 percent.

When specific groups of voters have dropped 5 points to 17 points in nine months, that is a danger sign for the future.

Beyond these specific groups, it is clear that women, young voters, suburbanites, college educated, and African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans are clearly going over to the Democratic Party, and this is what fueled victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and Alabama.

So the future bodes well for the Democratic Party in the upcoming Congressional and Gubernatorial and state legislative races in November 2018.

Magnificent Victory For Doug Jones In Alabama: Its Meaning

Last night’s magnificent victory in Alabama for Doug Jones in the special election to replace Jeff Sessions in the US Senate has so many meanings.

It is a total repudiation of the despicable former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore.

It is a total repudiation of Donald Trump, who now has lost twice in Alabama, after doing so well in that state in 2016. He lost with Luther Strange and now with Roy Moore.

It is a total repudiation of Steve Bannon, and his continued assault on the “Establishment” in the Republican Party, and is likely to lead to a Democratic House and Senate in the 2018 Midterm Congressional elections.

It is a total repudiation of disgraceful talk show host Sean Hannity on Fox News Channel, who could end up possibly implicated in the Trump Scandals being investigated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

On a positive vein, it demonstrates that the forces of good are there, even in Alabama, as African Americans, Latinos, women, and young people came out and voted in an off year special election at much higher rates than projected.

It is also a tribute to conservative mainstream Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, who refused to endorse and support Roy Moore, and told his supporters that he had voted a write in candidate, and that they could do so as well. As it turns out, if all of the write in votes had gone to Moore, it would have been a victory for the combative former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.

It was also a sign of just how good and decent Doug Jones was and is, as a prosecutor who, almost 40 years later, was able to gain convictions of Ku Klux Klansmen who killed those four young African American girls in that despicable church bombing in Birmingham in 1963. It was wonderful seeing African Americans on the stage with Jones at his victory celebration, showing the race issue does not have to divide Alabama or America.

It is also a sign of the significance of campaign adviser Joe Trippi, who earlier had worked for Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Jerry Brown, Dick Gephardt, Ted Kennedy, and John Edwards in their various campaigns. What a great adviser Joe Trippi is!

This blogger was emotional about this great victory last night, and more so than even the great victories in New Jersey and particularly Virginia in the November off year elections.

Now it is time to move forward and force Donald Trump, who has divided America in so many hateful ways, to face the punishment he deserves, which is potential impeachment, with moral turpitude to be added to Russian Collusion, Obstruction of Justice, Abuse of Power, and Violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.

It is also time for the top people around Trump to show they have courage and to demand he resign or they resign en masse. This includes John Kelly, H. R. McMaster, James Mattis, Rex Tillerson, and Nikki Haley.

The time for the cancer of Donald Trump to be excised has come, and the Democrats must use Trump against the Republicans, if they refuse to take responsibility for the dangers and authoritarianism that he represents.

It is time for the Republicans to put nation over party.

Sunbelt States (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) Will Make Rust Belt Mid West (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) No Longer Factor In Future Presidential Elections By Mid 2020s And After

In the midst of constant rehashing of the 2016 Presidential Election results, one point is being lost by political observers.

The nation is changing demographically very rapidly.

What happened in Virginia on Election Day this year is a sign of the future. Suburbanites, women, minorities, white collar educated, those under 45, and Independents swung over massively to the Democratic Party.

Those trends are not temporary, but permanent, as the older generation, which tends to be more conservative, dies off over the next decade, and the percentage of more educated people grows, and as the percentages of Latinos and Asian Americans start to change Sun Belt states.

So the near future is clearly that the states of Texas, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will turn Blue, while the Rust Belt Mid West, not as populated with the groups that helped to make Virginia as Blue a state as it is (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) may go back and forth from Red to Blue, but in the Electoral College, the Rust Belt Mid West will matter much less than it did in 2016, assisting the victory of Donald Trump.

So one can say with a great amount of assurance that by 2024 or 2028, the Democrats will have the electoral advantage in the Electoral College, and are unlikely to lose it, as the Republican Party continues to alienate even their base of less educated and rural voters, and as the Sun Belt turns Democratic long term.

Of course, as part of this transition, the Democratic Party needs to move to the Left, be more progressive and liberal,and not come across as a moderate alternative to the Democratic Party, as that is the future of the party, to act more like it is the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt or Lyndon B. Johnson. This is what the groups which helped the Virginia victory desire for the future.

The Trump Pardon of Sheriff Joe Arpaio An Outrageous Miscarriage Of Justice, And Encourages Abusive Law Enforcement!

One of the multitude of outrages of the Donald Trump Administration is his pardon of former Maricopa County (Phoenix) Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was about to be sentenced for his conviction of crimes perpetrated while he was in office for 24 years from 1993 to 2017, including mistreatment of prisoners, mistreatment of women, abusing the 4th Amendment, racial profiling of Latinos, and general abuse of power.

Trump pardoned Arpaio before sentencing, and without a review of the case by the Justice Department, and we now know Trump tried to stop the prosecution, interfering with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who refused Trump’s attempt.

If this is not obstruction of justice, and abuse of power, then nothing is!

And it encourages abusive law enforcement, as it is a outrageous miscarriage of justice that Arpaio avoids accountability!

This man in the White House is out of control, and might be signaling Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort not to worry, that he will pardon them if they refuse to cooperate with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, which, if true, would be further evidence of obstruction of justice and abuse of power.

Trump, by trying to prevent Mueller’s investigation, is clearly showing signs of guilt on Russian Collusion, and yet his followers continue to assert there is no such collusion.

The nation is suffering under this corrupt President, and let us hope the Mueller investigation is nearing the point of bringing charges against the most corrupt President in American history!

The Issue Of Punishing Neo Nazis, Ku Klux Klan, White Supremacists, Alt Right By Firing Them From Their Jobs: Why It Is Proper To Do It!

The issue has arisen about, in the aftermath of the Charlottesville, Virginia White Supremacy tragedy, whether it is proper for employers to punish Neo Nazis, Ku Klux Klan members, White Supremacists, and the Alt Right, by firing those who work for them. A number of participants have already been fired by their employers for participation in the despicable rally.

The argument is that they do not reflect the value systems of the companies they work for, and that their prejudiced views are worthy of dismissal.

Many of the young men at the Charlottesville rally were “outed” by social media, and became “victims” of the outrage of millions of Americans.

Certainly, anyone has a right to his or her own political, social, and economic views, but it is well known that employers have complete authority to hire and fire, and often do it on grounds that are unjust, including against women, gays and lesbians, Latinos, Muslims, African Americans and Asian Americans.

But these cases just listed are based on discrimination grounds, and should and are often fought in the courts under the civil rights laws.

So if one’s extremist views are the issue, it is not the same as one’s gender, sexual orientation, race or ethnicity.

Promoting hate, violence, and bloodshed is a very different issue, and IS justifiable grounds for dismissal from work.

Maybe these young men can reform themselves, when they see the visceral reaction of decent people, and the hope is that they will reform, and change, and repudiate their biased views, and then forgiveness can be considered.

Otherwise, they are on the road of criminality and federal and state prison, and a disgrace to their families, so this situation can be a learning experience.

Donald Trump’s Lack Of Concern For Human Rights In America And Other Nations

We now have a President who does not give a damn about human rights, whether in America or in other nations around the world. He embraces authoritarian leadership with gusto.

Nothing matters more than the defense and protection of human rights, but here we have a President who flirts with white supremacists, who promote antisemitism, anti Muslim, anti African American, anti Asian, anti Latino, and misogynistic attacks, and he has nary a word to say.

Here is a President who denounces Muslim terrorism, but ignores Christian extremists who encourage anti Muslim threats, and stir the kind of disaster that occurred in Portland, Oregon, by a Christian extremist, who stabbed three courageous men with two murdered, who defended two young women on a train from anti Muslim hatred.

Here is a President who consorts with governments that deny their citizens basic human rights, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Russia, the Philippines, China and others, giving up the American ideal of speaking up for the basic rights of all people.

Trump even has the gall to say we have no desire to tell other nations how to treat their own citizens, when we have always stood, at least in theory, if not in action, for condemnation of such violations.

Trump has no concern for America’s basic values of civil rights, civil liberties, and human decency, and is ready to abuse those in any way he can, and to embrace foreign dictators who do the same.

This is not what our President should be representing or doing, and he needs to be attacked vigorously on this every day until he finally is forced out of office as a disgrace to the Presidency!

The Donald Trump Voters And Loyalists: Their Characteristics

One listens and watches news coverage of Trump voters and supporters, and remains amazed that his followers fail to see any shortcoming in Donald Trump, and remain loyal, more than 90 percent so after four disastrous months, as of today, May 20.

We have never had a President stir up so much trouble and chaos in four months in office, and have nothing to show for it, except one Supreme Court Justice, Neil Gorsuch.

What motivates these Trump voters and loyalists? What are their characteristics?

It seems clear the following is a list of factors in no special order.

Many are highly religious, whether Catholic, Christian, or Jewish, and they are accustomed to the acceptance of authority and hierarchy, and are not the type to challenge, but rather accept.

Many are poorly educated, have low self esteem, and hate educated, smart people, and the concept of “facts”.

Many are struggling to survive economically, and fail to see that the “swamp” that Donald Trump pledged to destroy, is in full control, with all of the billionaires and multimillionaires, so they have been successfully bamboozled by a true demagogue, who could not care less about the plight of the working class whites who supported him.

Many are, sorry to say, pure racists, nativists, antisemites, and Islamophobes, who hate African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, Jewish Americans, and Muslim Americans, who they feel are “stealing” the “birthright” of white Christian Americans, who are “entitled” in a way these groups are not.

Many are believers that the family structure has been destroyed by feminism, and believe woman should be second class citizens, and sadly, many of their wives and daughters and sisters and girlfriends are too willing to accept their status as being inferior, having been brought up to “obey” men, and strict orthodoxy in religion promotes that.

Many of the men love the kind of raw, gross behavior of Donald Trump, as he is seen as like “one of the guys” at the local bar, the local hangout, and as an example of the macho male, that many have been brought up to believe is a good trait.

Many have no compassion for others who are sick, disabled, or poor. as those are seen as signs of weakness, except when those close to them suddenly end up in one of these categories, a total contradiction of their way of life.

Many are simply those who have no understanding of the importance of government, and are basically selfish and self centered, and have no social commitment to anyone they do not know personally.

Sadly, these characteristics demonstrate that America has about one third to 40 percent of the nation which contributes nothing positive to the future of America, but allow a small class of wealthy, mean spirited people to dominate and control their reasoning and emotions.

There is no simple answer as to how to combat this trend, but it is a sign of danger for the future of the American nation.

Donald Trump’s Slights Toward The Jewish Community Another Reason Why He Should Be Removed From Office

Donald Trump may have Jewish relatives, including son in law Jared Kushner and his converted daughter Ivanka, but there is simply too much evidence of his latent antisemitism.

Failure to acknowledge the mass murder of Jews in the Holocaust on Holocaust Remembrance Day is unacceptable.

Associating with, and refusing to repudiate the antisemitism of David Duke, Richard Spencer, and other white supremacists, is unforgivable.

Deciding not to attend a Passover Seder in the White House, while he is upstairs, is totally uncalled for, particularly after Barack Obama participated in Passover Seders all eight years he was in the White House, a tradition begun by George W. Bush.

Having his Press Secretary Sean Spicer claim that Adolf Hitler did not use chemical weapons in World War II, and that six million Jews were sent to “Holocaust Centers”, rather than concentration camps, where they were systematically executed, is a sin which only a summary firing by Donald Trump, and Trump’s own public apology, added to that of Sean Spicer already, can possibly rectify.

But seriously, this is simply another reason why Donald Trump should be removed from office, as his administration has already victimized immigrants, Muslims, African Americans, Latinos, gay and lesbian and transgender people, and women, simply by establishment of bigoted, racist, and misogynistic policies in 80 days in the White House!