This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.
Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.
But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.
Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:
New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes
Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes
Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes
Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes
Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes
Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes
This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.
Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.
Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.
This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.
But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.
So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!
I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!