Gary Johnson

Crucial Senate Races On Road To Democratic Majority In 116th Congress

The US Senate will be a major battleground this coming November.

Ten “Red State” Democrats face the challenge of winning their seats, with a few of them the most endangered.

If the Senate is to go Democratic, all ten seats must be won by their Democratic veterans, but that is a tall order, and is tied to the hearings over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

The most endangered regarding that issue are West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, and Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly.

Also possibly in trouble on that issue is Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.

These four Senators are seen as moderate, rather than liberal Democrats, and all of them except McCaskill, voted for Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch last year.

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr., Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Montana Senator Jon Tester all seem safer in their Senate races as of now, but that could change.

The most endangered incumbent, with or without the Kavanaugh vote, is Florida Senator Bill Nelson, who has Governor Rick Scott as his opponent, and with Scott having triple the amount of funds that Nelson has been able to garner. Scott is horrific, but he won two close races for Governor in 2010 and 2014, using his own wealth.

Now there is a new threat, that New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich might have more trouble being reelected, as former Governor and Libertarian Party 2016 Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, has just entered the race as an Independent, and in a three way race, anything is possible.

The problem is that even if all of these 11 Senators are successfully reelected, the Democrats still must win two more seats, with Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas as possibilities in that order.

If the Democrats are able to win 51 seats in 2018, it would have to be considered a true miracle!

Possible Democratic Gains In US Senate In Midterm Elections Of 2018

The Democrats have a massive challenge ahead, somehow to reelect all ten “Red State” Democratic Senators, but also, at the same time, to gain at least two additional seats and have a majority of 51 or more in the US Senate.

This is crucial to stop the worst of Trump Administration policies, and to insure that any future Supreme Court or Circuit or District Court judgeships not be as extreme right wing, as are occurring now.

Six seats seem open to switching to the Democrats:

Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and where Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is ahead of three potential Republican opponents.

Nevada, where Dean Heller is the most endangered Republican Senator up for reelection, challenged by Congresswoman Jacky Rosen, and she has been ahead of Heller in many public opinion polls.

Tennessee, where Bob Corker is retiring, and former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is seen as ahead of Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.

Texas, where Ted Cruz is gaining a serious challenge from Congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, and O’Rourke has raised more money than Cruz, who famously is disliked by all his fellow Senators by the testimony of many Democrats and even Republican colleagues.

Mississippi, where Thad Cochran retired suddenly due to bad health, and will have a special election to fill the seat, temporarily filled, and the hope that an upset is possible, as occurred in Alabama last fall, with Doug Jones taking a normal Republican seat. Mike Espy, former Congressman, Secretary of Agriculture for two years under Bill Clinton, and an African American, is seen as having some chance to take the seat, although not seen as likely to win, but a surprise could occur.

Mississippi, where Roger Wicker faces a challenge from state legislator David Baria, Minority Leader of the state legislature, who is seen as having a reasonable chance to win.

The first three of these six seats seem likely to go to the Democrats, which if true, would allow the loss of one of the ten “Red State” Democrats, and still have 51 seats, but that does not leave much room for error.

If all six seats, magically, went Democratic, and no loss of any of the “Red State” Democrats in November occurred, in theory, the Democrats could have as many as 55 seats, but that is clearly a result with very low potential to occur.

One more issue: New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich should have no trouble winning, but if former Republican Governor and 2016 Libertarian Party Presidential nominee Gary Johnson decides to run for the Senate, creating a three way race, it could put Heinrich’s seat in jeopardy.

So the challenge for Democrats to gain a Senate majority of 51 votes is clouded by overwhelming challenges!

The Destructive Nature Of Third Parties: Protest Vote But Leads Too Often To Less Preferable Nominee Winning White House

Third Parties are supposed to represent democracy in action, but we have now learned the hard way that it denies popular vote winners the Presidency!

It happened in 2000, when Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan took enough votes away to harm Al Gore, and elect George W. Bush.

And now it has happened again in 2016, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein taking enough votes to harm Hillary Clinton and elect Donald Trump.

Bush did much harm in his Presidency, and realistically, Donald Trump can be seen as likely to do even greater damage.

Any one who voted third party in 2000 or 2016 should feel guilt, as it has led to the worse choice, and nothing was accomplished, except maybe to feel good that one protested.

There is no way to prevent third party movements, but it has NEVER had a positive effect, with maybe the exception of Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive (Bull Moose) Party in 1912.

But in a democracy, nothing can be done to prevent this harmful action from taking place, so likely, we will lose the better Presidential nominee more times in the future!

Vast Majority Of Women, African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, Millennials, College Educated, Against Trump!

With less than two weeks to the election, the following is clear:

The vast majority of women, having self respect no matter what their political leanings, are going to vote for Hillary Clinton and against Donald Trump. They know he is a womanizer, a misogynist, and a sexist, who objectifies women and brags about his conquests, like a teenage jerk.

The vast majority of African Americans are against Donald Trump, knowing his racism and condescending attitude toward them.

The vast majority of Hispanic Americans are disgusted by Donald Trump’s nativism, and promotion of building a wall at the Mexican border.

The vast majority of Asian Americans, recognizing that Trump is as prejudiced against them as other ethnic minority groups, are not going to vote for him.

Millennials, aware that Donald Trump offers nothing for them, as he only concerns himself with the wealthy upper class, will vote for Hillary Clinton, or Gary Johnson, or Jill Stein, but with the majority likely to go to Hillary Clinton.

The college educated will, for the first time, go Democratic. because they see Donald Trump as promoting prejudice, discrimination, and bias, and their education makes them unwilling to support a person they see as a demagogue.

So who is left to back Trump? Well, for one thing, working class white Americans, non college educated, who are drawn to Trump by his charisma, and want to believe that he really cares about them, when he has no interest in them at all, and many of them will be very disillusioned when, after the election, they realize they have been bamboozled by a con man!

Trump will also be backed by racists, nativists. antisemites, misogynists, Islamophobes, and homophobes, and such people of any background or description, are correctly described by Hillary Clinton as a “basket of deplorables.”

Amen to that a thousand percent!

Evan McMullin, Independent Presidential Nominee, Could Win Utah’s 6 Electoral Votes

In the midst of all of the attention paid to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein, there is actually another Presidential candidate on the ballot in eleven states, Evan McMullin, running as a conservative alternative.

McMullin is a possible winner in Utah, with its 6 electoral votes, with his Mormon heritage, and his record as Chief Policy Director for the House Republican Conference, and as a CIA Operations Officer, all by the age of 40, easily the youngest Presidential candidate in a year where three are “elderly” and Gary Johnson is 63.

In a recent poll, McMullin had 20 percent, only a few points behind Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and with Gary Johnson having 14 percent, so there is a real four way race in Utah, the only state that we see that situation.

McMullin is pro life on abortion matters; accepts gay marriage; is pro free trade; against mass deportation of undocumented immigrants; and supports the basics of ObamaCare, but wants to make a better system. He is critical of Donald Trump on counter terrorism measures, as he has years of experience in that area of policy making.

He could “mess up” the Electoral College, and could become the first non major party candidate to win a state’s electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968.

It is highly unlikely that if he won the state of Utah with its 6 electoral votes, that he would be the decisive factor in who wins 270 electoral votes, but in theory, he could prevent any candidate from winning the required number of electoral votes, and require the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which has not been used since 1824, to be dusted off once again after 192 years!

If such a scenario developed, there is a slight chance that McMullin could become President, but do not bet on it by any means!

Donald Trump Seems In Free Fall In Many “Red ” States After Access Hollywood Tape And Accusations Of Sexual Assault!

All of a sudden, it seems possible that Donald Trump may lose many “red” states. This has occurred as news of the Access Hollywood tape and multiple accusations of sexual assault by a multitutude of women, who live far apart and do not know each other, keep on becoming news. The question is why would these women put themselves through publicity if it was not true, as they are gaining nothing financially from the revelations. So suddenly, Trump is in trouble, just trying to keep “red” states when he needs to win “swing” states.

Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina, and is within the margin of error in Georgia and Arizona in many polls.

Also, Utah looks in play with Mormon dislike of Trump, and the independent candidacy of Evan McMullin, in a very tight four person race with Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Gary Johnson.

Additionally, Missouri and Indiana have very small leads for Trump, with Clinton apparently gaining.

And even South Carolina and Texas have close leads for Trump, when for a Republican nominee, it should be an easy win.

And get this, even Alaska looks like it might give Hillary Clinton a chance to win that small populated state.

The odds, of course, are that Hillary Clinton will only win North Carolina, and likely Georgia and possibly Arizona.

But the idea of close races in six other states is mind boggling!

Hillary Clinton Only Qualified Candidate On Foreign Policy To Be The 45th President Of The United States

It is clear to anyone who pays attention to foreign policy, that only Hillary Clinton is qualified to be President and Commander in Chief!

Donald Trump is a “loose cannon” who has alienated many foreign leaders with his crazy statements on international affairs, and his love vest with Russia is an alarm bell to all sensible and thoughtful people.

Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, is clueless on just about everything imaginable, including foreign policy, on which she has no expertise or experience.

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, is proving how incompetent he is, when he did not know about Aleppo, Syria, and now unable to name one foreign leader he knows and trusts, and he has become a major embarrassment for his ignorance.

Hillary Clinton has had four year as Secretary of State, and much of it is positive, although criticism can be made on the Middle East policy, but much that goes on in the Middle East regularly is impossible to control, whether Republican or Democrat in the White House, as for example, George W. Bush’s eight years in the White House.

She also knows most foreign leaders,and many foreign policy experts, many of them Republican, as well as conservatives and former Republican Senators, have endorsed her as the only sensible choice, along with Republican newspapers which have endorsed her, the first in history for the Arizona Republic, and for almost a century for the Dallas Morning News and Cincinnati Enquirer.

One must realize that many of the so called “scandals” charged on Clinton and her husband have turned out to be false, having no substance, and is part of the 25 year attack on the Clintons by the right wing. and yet, nothing substantive that matters has been found.

But propaganda continues, and Hillary Clinton has borne the nasty attacks very well, and is highly favored to win the Presidency in 40 days.

And the nation is better for that reality!

Turnout And Federal Oversight In States With Voting Restrictions The Key To Democratic Victory In November

The biggest obstacle to a Hillary Clinton victory in November is insuring high turnout by African Americans, Latino and Hispanic Americans, young women, college educated men and women, and millennials.

An election requires motivation by voters to come out and vote, and get their friends and family to do so, as well.

Hillary lacks the excitement of Barack Obama, and the charisma of her husband, Bill Clinton, but she is far better qualified than either of them to be President.

So she must work to get people to vote for her as the most equipped of the four candidates—herself, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein– to be our 45th President.

Additionally, Georgia Congressman John Lewis has called for federal oversight to insure that states that have attempted to promote voter restrictions are prevented from denying people their right to vote, as that could dramatically affect voter turnout as well.

Turnout and federal oversight in states with voting restrictions are crucial, as we cannot allow Donald Trump to become our President, as that would be a never ending nightmare!

The Myth That The Election Victory Of Hillary Clinton Is Narrowing: The Misunderstanding Of The Electoral College As Against Polls

It is amazing to this author and blogger that so many Americans seem to think that the election victory of Hillary Clinton is narrowing, according to some public opinion polls.

There is a failure to understand that news media have an investment in building up that there is a real battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, when there is absolutely no realistic chance for Donald Trump to overcome the deficits that he has created for himself over the past 15 months.

The point to be made is that it is the Electoral College and 270 electoral votes that elects our President, and in fact, as George W. Bush reminded us, a candidate can actually lose the national popular vote and still be elected President, as happened in 2000, and also in 1824, 1876, and 1888.

There are 18 “Blue” states and the District of Columbia, which have voted Democratic from 1992 on, and are not about to change. But even if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin somehow surprised us, which is not going to happen in the real world, Hillary Clinton is presently ahead in all of the “Swing” states that Barack Obama won, plus she is even or slightly ahead in a number of “Red” states.

If she wins the likely 242 from the 18 states and DC, all Hillary needs is Florida OR Ohio and Virginia OR a combination of other “Swing” or “Red” states, the latter including, possibly North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, and even in new polls the states of Texas and Mississippi, and even possibly one vote in Nebraska in the Omaha area, since Nebraska, along with Maine, allows splitting of electoral votes.

To believe that Hillary will somehow lose is totally preposterous, while it can be said that IF the Republican Party had nominated John Kasich, or even possibly, Jeb Bush, all bets would have been off.

And while Gary Johnson will have some effect in some states, the Libertarian nominee is not going to be the spoiler he thought he would be.

And the Green Party and Jill Stein—just forget it, not worth one’s time and attention!

The Need To Promote Voting Among Millennials, Minorities, And Women

With less than two months to the election, there is a growing concern that millennials, minorities, and women are all being turned off from voting by the negativism and disillusionment engendered during the Presidential campaign.

Many millennials are disappointed that Senator Bernie Sanders failed to win the nomination, and that seems to be why many are thinking of avoiding voting, or choosing to back third party candidates Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

There is a dire need for the Hillary Clinton campaign to avoid overconfidence and realize that this election cannot be won unless people go out and vote for their own benefit and advancement.

Otherwise, we could wake up with the nightmare of a dangerous, ill informed, and erratic man becoming our President, and Donald Trump would be an unmitigated disaster in the White House.

And it must be emphasized that voting For Congress is also crucial, as if the opposition keeps both houses, then stalemate, gridlock, and undermining of any progress will continue.