Bible Belt

An African American Vs. A Mormon: The Quandary For The “Old Confederate” South

Mitt Romney was dealt a walloping defeat last night in both Alabama and Mississippi, gaining only about 30 percent of the vote against his two competitors–winner Rick Santorum and runner up Newt Gingrich.

With all that, Romney still has twice the delegates of Santorum and three times the delegates of Gingrich, and is still seen as the likely nominee, although it may end up as a battle at the August Tampa Republican National Convention.

The problem is that Romney is perceived, particularly in the South, as not conservative enough, and overwhelming numbers of conservatives, Tea Party activists, and Evangelical Christians do not like, and were unwilling to support him. Romney has lost not just Alabama and Mississippi and Tennessee to Santorum, but also South Carolina and Georgia to Gingrich. The only “Old Confederate” Southern states he has won are Florida, which is unique in many respects, and Virginia, where he had only the competition of Ron Paul. Romney is not expected to win North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, or Texas, when those states vote in their primaries.

So the question arises: Can Mitt Romney, if he is the Republican nominee for President, carry the “Old Confederate” South? Will the conservatives, Tea Party, and Evangelical Christians get out there and organize and vote for him over Barack Obama?

Truthfully, low voter turnout, due to lack of enthusiasm, COULD cost Romney the election, if African Americans and Hispanics and Latinos come out in large numbers to vote, and are not prevented from voting by new voter ID laws.

These Republican groups will also have on their mind the reality that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, seen as a cult and non Christian by many Bible Belt types.

Is that worse than being an African American? In this unusual circumstance, an African American vs. a Mormon, an extremely unusual circumstance, who can honestly say what would happen?

The suspicion is that Obama could hold on in the states he won last time–Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, but also would have a shot at winning Georgia and even Texas, if there is a low GOP voter turnout, and if Hispanics and Latinos, growing numbers in both states, vote in high percentages for Obama, again without prevention by Voter ID laws designed to cut their vote, as well as that of African Americans.

No matter how much other Southern states may feel that the Mormon Church is unacceptable, to believe that Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas would vote for an African American, would require one to hallucinate!

The good thing is that the five states Obama could win have 111 electoral votes, while the other six states certain to vote Republican have only 49 electoral votes!

Were Obama to win more than two thirds of the electoral votes of the “Old Confederate” South, that would be an amazing development and would insure, all by itself, that Obama would win an overwhelming electoral vote victory in November 2012!

The “Bible Belt”, Religion, And The Republican Presidential Race

After Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses by EIGHT votes over Rick Santorum, some saw it as a victory.

But others pointed out that Romney actually received SIX fewer total votes than he did in 2008 in the Iowa Caucuses!

And Romney did not do well among evangelical Christians, which are a very large portion of the Republican vote in Iowa. Considering also that he received just 25 percent of the vote, the same percentage as in 2008, brought to mind that his Mormon faith MAY have an effect in the Southern primaries and other Midwest primaries where evangelical Christians still look at Mormonism as a religious cult, in areas considered the “Bible Belt”!

So Mitt Romney is not seen as overcoming the religion question as John F. Kennedy did in 1960.

But the problem is that Jon Huntsman is also a Mormon, and Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are Catholic, the problem that existed for Kennedy. Only Rick Perry and Ron Paul are evangelical Christians or Baptists, which is predominant in the South.

The question is whether Rick Santorum, who shares the religious and family values of many Southerners, but is a Catholic, can win them over and have an impact in future primaries. He is already trying to appeal to blue collar whites who are often rural in environment and religious more than the rest of the country. Will Perry and Paul have a better shot, particularly in the South, and can Gingrich, who converted to Catholicism, overcome that fact?

The point is that religion COULD be a factor in the final decision as to who the GOP Presidential nominee will be!

The Flaws Of A Mitt Romney Presidential Candidacy

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has many virtues, many positives, that should make him a model candidate for the White House, including:

1. Strong business background with Bain Capital and as head of the Salt Lake City Olympics Committee for 2002.
2. Promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts which is seen as a major success by many.
3. Bright, intelligent, photogenic candidate, with great family image, including his wife and five sons.
4. Knowledgeable about economic matters, and seen as Presidential caliber in many people’s minds.
5. Has presented good body language in debates and has greater potential to appeal to moderates, Independents, and conservative Democrats.

Despite all of the above, there are a long list of flaws that will make it difficult for Romney to win the GOP nomination for President, and if he does, to win the election over President Barack Obama. Among them are :

1. Romney comes across as a chameleon, a person who is constantly over the years changing his views on many issues, seen as originally a moderate and trying to paint himself as a conservative–therefore perceived as a phony candidate, and a “flip flopper”!
2. Romney was not well liked personally by his opponents in the 2008 Presidential race, particularly John McCain and Mike Huckabee, and is not even now well liked by the Bush clan and other Establishment Republicans.
3. Romney is not well regarded by evangelical Christians, a large group in primaries and caucuses, because of his Mormon faith, and one wonders could he win the “Bible Belt” South and Great Plains, areas usually Republican. but seeing Mormons as a cult, and not Christian!
4. All through the race for the GOP nomination, despite Romney showing the best ability in polls to compete with President Obama, there has been a constant search for an alternative, whether Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, and now Chris Christie, not a sign of much feeling of emotion or passionate feelings of love for Romney.
5. Romney has shown insensitivity toward average people, by joking that he is unemployed; by talking about his Cadillacs collection; and by having a project to increase the size of his home to a mansion at a time when many are losing their own homes. Being the richest candidate in the race may give him a money edge, but he comes across as not understanding the problems of the middle class!
6. Despite his recent improved debate performances, Romney still has an image of being stiff, uncomfortable in his own skin, not totally relaxed, and not truly knowing how to deal with irate questioners at rallies, and with strong criticism. It makes one wonder would he be able to work well with Congress, whether his own party or the opposition, with so little political experience, only one term as Governor, and thinking his lack of a career in politics is a plus, which it really is not!
7. Romney’s ability to get people out to vote for him is doubtful, since he does not evoke strong feelings of support, and his poll numbers are still seen as very soft.
8. Romney’s attempt to steer clear of the Tea Party Movement makes one wonder if he could ever work well with fellow Republicans, who in many cases would be much further to the right politically than he would feel comfortable being himself, once in office.
9. Can a candidate from the Northeast, the stronghold of Barack Obama, have any opportunity to defeat him in any scenario that would add up to 270 electoral votes? That seems highly doubtful, as in many ways, Romney comes across as somewhat distant in the same way as two past Massachusetts Democrats who ran for President had trouble overcoming–Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004. Those two who lost to father and son Bush did not face a man with the charisma and emotional feelings of support that Barack Obama has had, and even in bad times, still has to some extent today!
10. By coming out hard line against immigration reform that allows illegal immigrants and their children a path to citizenship, Romney, like other Republicans, is losing the future, as Hispanic population and voter participation is growing in the Southwest and across the nation, and they are not likely to throw support to a candidate who demeans them and treats them as not deserving of respect and empathy for their futures in America!

There are probably other points that could be made, but it is clear that Mitt Romney has major flaws in so many ways that his candidacy for President is going to require a lot of luck and good fortune for him to end up in the Oval Office!