South Florida

The Four “States” Of Florida

Florida began early voting today, and it is the ultimate “swing state”, as it is really four “states”!

North Florida and the Panhandle is strongly conservative and Republican, except for Gainesville, the home of the flagship University of Florida.

Central Florida is the ultimate battleground of Tampa and Orlando, with growing Hispanic population, heavily Puerto Rican, but also Midwesterners who are Republicans, so it is hard to know what will happen here.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida are fertile Democratic territory, and heavily Jewish and other Northeasterners.

Miami Dade County is heavily Cuban, likely Republican, but the younger generation may be straying from their parents and grandparents.

Voter turnout and enthusiasm will decide if Florida goes to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in ten days!

Major Florida Factor Often Not Considered: The Puerto Rican, And Other Non Cuban Hispanic Vote

As the battle for Florida’s electoral votes goes on, many observers are failing to realize the possible influence of the massively increased Puerto Rican population, particularly in the major area of significance, Central Florida.

Often, many people assume that the Hispanic vote is mostly Cuban, and that they, of course, traditionally vote Republican because of the failure of John F. Kennedy to eliminate Fidel Castro at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

But in recent years, the Puerto Rican population in the state of Florida, and particularly, in Central Florida, has ballooned to nearly match or surpass the Cuban population found mostly in South Florida.

There are nearly a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a state that is always rapidly changing, and becoming more non Cuban Hispanic by the month.

The Puerto Ricans of Florida, with smaller numbers in the past, supported the election and reelection of Governor Jeb Bush, but they went to Barack Obama for President in 2008, and are seen as likely, by large percentages, to vote for him again. The key, as always, will be voter turnout.

Additionally, there are a growing number of Hispanics from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, and the tendency of many would be to support Obama, although the very religious element, against abortion and gay marriage, might not, but the point being made here is that to assume, because of some polls at the moment, that Mitt Romney has Florida locked up, with its 29 electoral votes, is a massive mistake, as Florida will be in play, and may well decide who is the next President. And realize that younger Cuban Americans, in many cases, are abandoning the Republican beliefs of their parents and grandparents, and some will vote for Barack Obama!

And remember, with the biggest prize of the “swing” states, 29 electoral votes, Florida may select Barack Obama for a second term, and without the intervention of the Supreme Court for George W. Bush, as in the Presidential Election of 2000!

Virginia And Florida: Two “Swing” States With Strong “Blue Areas”: Will It Be Enough For Barack Obama?

Two “swing” states, crucial to the Presidential Election of 2012, are also Southern states, which have usually been fertile Republican territory, but not necessarily this time, as they were not in the Presidential Election of 2008.

Those two states are Virginia and Florida, where much of the battle for the Presidency will be centered over the next six months.

Virginia had voted Republican since after 1964, until Barack Obama won it in 2008. The key area that helped bring the Obama victory was northern Virginia, near Washington DC. This area has seen a continuous growth of federal government employees, many of them for the Pentagon in northern Virginia, but also other government workers who have settled in that area of the state. Additionally, many young people, African Americans, and Hispanics and Latinos have settled in Northern Virginia in recent years, and women have been alienated from the Republicans, due to the vaginal probe bill introduced by Governor Bob McDonnell, a leading candidate for the Vice Presidential nomination to run with Mitt Romney.

Virginia is really two states, and in that regard, not all that different than many other states, but the Northern Virginia vote was enough to give Obama the win in 2008, and right now, it seems likely that scenario will happen again in 2012.

Florida is another such case, with South Florida the “blue” area of the state, and helping Barack Obama to win the state in 2008, only the third time since the late 1960s to go to the Democrats (the other times being 1976 and 1996 when Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton carried the state).

The margin of victory in Florida was gained by South Florida support, just as was so in Northern Virginia, and the growth of non Hispanic Cubans, plus the northeastern and Jewish influence in South Florida, seem likely to give Barack Obama another opportunity to gain the state in a close vote finish in November!

51st Anniversary Of Bay Of Pigs Fiasco: Time To Open Up To Cuba

Today marks the 51st anniversary of the Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy, the failure to overthrow Fidel Castro and Communism in Cuba.

Often thought to be possibly the worst action of the Kennedy Presidency, it simply emboldened Fidel Castro, and it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, leading to the most dangerous moment in the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union.

Had it not been for cooler heads on both sides, including President Kennedy’s brother, Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, the world as we knew it might have come to an end in a disastrous nuclear war.

In the years since, negotiations went on with the Soviet Union until its downfall in December 1991, and relations with China, the largest Communist power, ensued, and despite many problems and issues between China and the US, we are now marking 40 years of contact with that nation.

But our involvement with Fidel Castro, and now his brother Raul Castro, has been very minimal, and an embargo on trade has failed to overwhelm Cuba, even after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Instead, for political reasons, the influence of Cuban Americans in the Republican Party, and particularly in Florida, has led to the refusal to deal with Castro, which all other nations do, and has made us look ridiculous.

Dealing with an evil government which denies human rights to its citizens is not a good thing, but yet we deal with many governments diplomatically, who do just that, deny basic human rights to its people.

If we were to deal only with governments that guarantee equality and human rights, we would be isolated from contact with much of the world, as sadly, much of the membership of the United Nations is governed by abhorrent leadership.

The point is that Cuba will sometime soon see a change of government, as with Fidel Castro reaching 86 this summer, and Raul Castro in his early 80s, we could have a dramatic effect on the future of that island nation if we began diplomatic ties and stopped the ridiculous, ineffective embargo that has gone on now for more than half a century.

It is time that we decided that we are not going to allow the Cuban American community of South Florida, which is indeed becoming more diverse, in any case, simply by the changing attitudes of the younger generation, to dominate the issue of the future of Cuban relations.

And as part of that, we need to have people willing to stand up to the dominant, older, right wing forces in the Cuban community, who are not interested in democracy in Cuba’s future, but only in establishing a right wing government that favors the wealthy who were forced out of Cuba in 1959-1960, and want to influence the future of that nation through their family connections, but have poisoned politics in Florida and the nation by their intransigence on the Cuba issue all these years.

And therefore, it is time for the Miami Marlins to stop pandering to those in the community who have called for the firing of manager Oscar Guillen because he had the “nerve” to speak his mind about Fidel Castro. IF we do not promote freedom of speech, how are we any different than what has gone on in Cuba for the past half century? And although the author thinks Fidel Castro is reprehensible, that does not mean that Oscar Guillen’s job should be based on denial of his right to his personal views, whether you and I agree with such views!

Hopefully, in a second term, Barack Obama will be able to move forward on the issue of opening up to Cuba, as a plan for the future of our relations with that island nation, soon to change simply on the basis of time passing and leadership leaving the scene!

Florida: A Complex State Politically, And Hard To Predict Its Impact

With the Florida Republican Primary just eight days away, and with many Republican voters having already engaged in early voting or absentee mail ballots, the question arises as to what one can expect to happen on January 31.

Mitt Romney has the most money and is seen as the moderate in the race, although he professes to be conservative.

Newt Gingrich, flush off his victory in South Carolina, would seem to have an edge, although Florida is not quite the same as South Carolina electorally, being much more unpredictable.

Florida is really multiple states in electoral behavior, as the Panhandle, particularly west of Tallahassee, the state capital, is very much like South Carolina or “southern Alabama”, strongly evangelical Christian and Tea Party oriented. But central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando, tends to be made up of people from the Midwest, while South Florida has large concentrations of Cubans, but also Northeasterners, including Jews in large numbers. And Puerto Ricans are found in Orlando in large numbers, and liberal strongholds exist in Tallahassee due to Florida State University’s presence, and in Gainesville, home of the University of Florida.

So if Florida comes across in the GOP Primary as too conservative, that can affect the balance among Hispanics, African Americans, and Jews, heavily concentrated in South Florida and portions of Central Florida, when it comes to the Presidential election in November.

Florida has a “split personality”, and being a megastate, more representative of the nation than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, it could turn out to be very unpredictable in its impact on the Republican Presidential battle, and in the fall campaign against Barack Obama.

Congressman Allen West Should Be Censured For His Vitriolic Attack On Debbie Wasserman Schultz!

South Florida has a very large number of senior citizens, who will be affected by the Republican attempt to gut Medicare and Social Security.

Congressman Allen West, one of the most right wing conservatives in Congress, has come out for such cuts, and his colleague, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is also chair of the Democratic National Committee, criticized his action that will hurt his own constituents. She did not issue a personal attack on West, but when he heard what she had said on the floor of the House of Representatives, he went ballistic!

Already seen as a “loose cannon”, who was forced to leave the military in 2004 because of mistreatment of an Iraqi prisoner of war, West lashed into a bitter personal attack, saying Wasserman Schultz did not act like a lady, and he would not give her, therefore, appropriate respect ordinarily due a fellow member of the House!

West called his colleague “vile, unprofessional, and despicable”, and accused her of “heinous, characterless behavior” unbecoming a member of Congress!

What West needs to do, but will certainly not do, is look in the mirror, realize his temper tantrum was way overboard, and apologize to Wasserman Schultz and all women in America for his lunatic temper and lack of respect for women!

Why has West not learned to be civil, cordial, and congenial with those he does not agree with? Does he really think that hitting someone over the head symbolically with a hatchet is the way to solve disagreements?

West should be censured for his vitriolic attack, as unacceptable behavior! Wasserman Schultz criticized his policy views, while West did a character assassination, totally uncalled for!

However, no such censure will occur, and the best result will be the defeat of West in his congressional district by former West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel! This is certainly one of the most significant House races for 2012, even before yesterday’s events!

Fantastic Development: Debbie Wasserman Schultz To Be Chair Of Democratic National Committee!

One of the best pieces of news in a long time is that President Obama has chosen Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of South Florida to be the new Chair of the Democratic National Committee, succeeding former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who is running for the open Senate seat held by Democratic Senator Jim Webb, who is retiring!

Wasserman Schultz has been an exceptional Congresswoman for her district in Broward and Miami Dade County, and has a safe Congressional seat. She has been in Congress for seven years now, and is a real battler for Democratic Party values!

She is feisty and willing to speak up with her strong beliefs against all Republican challengers! She will not tolerate any bull from Republican leaders in the House, Senate, or in the upcoming Presidential race of 2012!

Originally a strong advocate of the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, she has become a total loyalist to President Obama, and she will fight to her last breath for the party and the President. She has what could be called “cajones”, and can give as good as she takes!

No one is going to run over Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has overcome a major battle with breast cancer while raising her three children in tandem with her husband!

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a woman of courage and determination, and her appointment as DNC Chair guarantees a strong, combative Presidential and Congressional race to put the Democratic Party back in power in the House of Representatives, and retain control of the US Senate and the White House!

Congratulations to Debbie and to President Obama for a sensational, awe inspiring appointment that will do the Democratic Party and the nation a lot of good over the long haul!