Public Opinion Polls

Celebration Of Two Years Of Barack Obama: Public Opinion Ratings Soar! :)

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Today marks two years of the Obama Presidency, and an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll shows his rating with the public has soared from 45 to 53 percent in the past month, the highest it has been since July 2009! 🙂

Why has this happened? Apparently, his handling of the Lame Duck Session, demonstrating willingness to work with the opposition Republicans, is a major factor.

Also, his handling of the Tucson tragedy was overwhelmingly popular, as he showed empathy and ability to speak to the country in a soothing manner in the midst of a major crisis and depressing moment for the nation.

Also, there is growing optimism long term and short term about the economy, and Obama comes across as a reasonable person, rather than as an extremist, as so many Republicans present themselves.

The pressure is not on the President, as many thought after the midterm losses in Congress, but rather with the Republicans to show reasonableness and desire to work with the President for the good of the country.

But don’t hold your breath on such cooperation, as every evidence is just the opposite.

Speaker John Boehner failed to attend the State Dinner for the Chinese President, something totally inappropriate, considering that Boehner is second in line for the Presidency, and yet has no interest in interacting with the leader of the second largest economy.

Almost no Republicans attended the State Dinner, with the major exception of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who seemed somewhat embarrassed, when asked about it, that he was the rare Republican to be at the banquet.

The Republican party, with the battle beginning among probably more than a dozen individuals to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012, and with their ties to the Right Wing talk show hosts, including Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Sean Hannity, among others, gives the advantage clearly to the camp of Barack Obama! 🙂

Congratulations, President Obama, on an outstanding first two years of your administration, and the growing likelihood that you will have the great advantage for a second term as President, because of your accomplishments and principles, and the growing image of the GOP as out of step with the American people, as evidenced by the Health Care repeal vote yesterday in the House of Representatives!

The Importance Of The Cell Phone Vote In Tuesday’s Elections!

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With so many races so evenly split, according to polls, attention must be drawn to the cell phone vote, which is NOT measured by polling companies, which call people only on land line phones!

With the growing number of citizens who do not have a land line phone, and with so many of these people being young and often less affluent, the potential for mistakes in the polls is enormous!

Races that seem settled may not be over; evenly competitive races could be more one sided; and the appeal of President Obama and others that the coalition of people who elected him in 2008 should get out there and save the reforms that have been brought about, could indeed lead to major upsets in the polls that might be memorable!

The election is still coming, and everyone should be voting, as it can have an historic impact on the future, or be a detriment to our recovery from the economic recession caused by Republican party policies, and “sweetheart” deals with the major banks, insurance companies, and other corporations!

Newsweek Poll Shows Turnaround On Support Of Obama And Democrats!

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With nine days to go to the midterm elections of 2010, suddenly a Newsweek poll shows a revival of support for Barack Obama and newly emerging enthusiasm for the Democrats! 🙂

Obama’s public opinion ratings have surged to 54 percent from the low 40s, and the generic congressional ballot shows a lead of 48 to 42 for Democrats over Republicans!

Among those who have voted early, the Democrats lead the GOP 52-42, and is evidence that Democrats may have finally reacted to the message of President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and former President Bill Clinton–that this is not an election to sit out, and allow those who brought us the Great Recession to regain control of the national government!

There are increasing signs of women, Latinos, African Americans, and young people–all of whom made a difference in 2008–starting to commit themselves to vote this year, and those are good signs for the Democrats in a very difficult economic climate!

While anything is possible next week, it may be that Yogi Berra, the Hall of Fame Yankee catcher, may be correct when he uttered: “It ain’t over till it’s over!”

The Two Party System Under Attack By Voters: Will It Benefit The Republicans By Default, Or Keep The Democrats In Control Of Congress?

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Polls indicate that there is great anger and fury among voters toward both the Democratic and Republican parties, and the wonder is how it will affect the party balance this November in the midterm elections for Congress!

The Democrats are highly unpopular, with only 38 percent approving, and 60 percent disapproving of the party’s performance in an Associated Press poll, but the GOP is far worse–with 31 percent approving and 68 percent disapproving!

In a CBS-NY Times poll, the Democrats have a rating of 30 percent compared to the Republicans with just 20 percent!

The Republicans are not seen as “new”, as they were in 1994, when they had been out of power since 1954–an amazingly long 40 years!

Now they have only been out of the majority for four years, and this comes after 12 years of control, in which they helped to cause the horrific conditions that led to a doubling of the national debt, two wars, and the Great Recession!

So they are on the defensive, as many do not see the GOP as really offering a better alternative, but simply putting back in power those who botched things up!

Will the country really give the Republicans the majority? Our two party system is frustrating to many, but there is no realistic chance to have a three party system or replace either one of the major parties, which have been around since 1854!

So it will be interesting to see what the voters, individually in each of the 50 states, decide to do with their anger and frustration! And also realize that polls can change rapidly as we get closer to the election, and are not always accurate in any case!

Barack Obama Hits New Low In Public Opinion Polls! :( What Does It Mean?

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President Barack Obama has just hit a new low in popularity in public opinion polls, an alarming statistic for him and the Democratic Party!

Obama has dropped down to 42 percent, with 54 percent unhappy with his performance as President!

This is, obviously, not good news for him or his party, with every indication that the party will lose a large number of seats in Congress, and possibly lose the majority in one or both houses to the Republicans!

But it is not a guarantee by any means of what will happen, as polls have not been proved to be always an accurate reflection of what people will do on Election Day!

It also is a poor barometer of what will happen in the next Presidential election as shown by the following statistics:

September 1946–Harry Truman 32 percent rating
September 1978–Jimmy Carter 42 percent
September 1982–Ronald Reagan 42 percent
September 1994–Bill Clinton 42 percent

Realize that all of the above Presidents, despite their low public opinion rating at this point of their first term, went on to win another term as President, with the exception of Jimmy Carter!

So it is not time to write off Barack Obama by any means for 2012, and also at this point, there is no GOP potential nominee that has the backing or credentials that can be seen as presenting a real threat to the President!

But also recall that trying to predict the winner of the next Presidential election this far ahead of the contest is a losing proposition, as no one thought these future possibilities were reality at this point of a Presidential term:

Woodrow Wilson in 1910
Warren G. Harding in 1918
Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1930
Harry Truman in 1946
John F. Kennedy in 1958
Richard Nixon in 1966
Jimmy Carter in 1974
Ronald Reagan in 1978
Bill Clinton in 1990
Bill Clinton in 1994
Barack Obama in 2006

So the Presidential campaign truly begins right after the midterm elections are over on November 2, and there will be plenty to talk about, write about, and analyze about the perennial race for the White House!

The Fickle Nature Of Public Opinion Polls: Bill Clinton Vs. Barack Obama!

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Imagine this: Former President Bill Clinton is now more popular than President Barack Obama!

Of course, Bill Clinton was quite unpopular during the 2008 Presidential campaign, as his wife was in combat with Obama!

But now, with no responsibility for government policy, and involved in Haitian relief and other charitable causes, suddenly he is popular, and is seen by many as a better campaign asset for many Democrats than the President!

Of course, Obama faces the constant barrage of problems and issues, and the opposition is unrelenting, which shows the reality of politics–that when you are engaged in the making of policy, you make enemies!

Once you leave, and years go by, and if you stay out of controversy, your ratings will go up, as attitudes soften towards you in retrospect!

So Clinton’s popularity can be utilized to help Democrats in areas where it might be best for Obama to avoid campaigning!

If the Democrats do better in the midterm elections than many expect, a lot of the credit will have to go to Bill Clinton! But that is all to the good! 🙂

Are Public Opinion Polls Reliable? Obama Versus Democrats In Congress

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There has always been the question of how reliable are public opinion polls in judging the true feelings of the American people.

New evidence adds to the doubt on the reliability of polls, as it is clear, to the fury of conservative opponents, that President Barack Obama remains personally popular, with most polls finding him in the mid to high 50s range.

And yet, only 36 percent of Democrats in a recent poll are enthused about the upcoming midterm elections, as compared to 56 percent of Republicans!

There has been a constant criticism of Congress as an institution, with the “ins” always suffering a lack of confidence by the American people, who seem impatient with the slow processes that exist on Capitol Hill.

There is certainly always an anti incumbent feeling, with it being much more powerful this year, based upon polls, than is normally seen. But this includes Republicans who are incumbents, as well as Democrats!

A lot of the dichotomy is due to the tremendous economic suffering going on in the nation in the midst of the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression! People want simple and easy answers, or as some suggested when President Obama visited Buffalo yesterday, “I need a freaking job!”

So Democrats hope that as the months go by, and the impact of what Obama has done continues to promote expansion of the economy, that the enthusiasm among Democrats and independents to vote Democratic will become stronger, and that the results in November will be far better than they seemingly appear to be.

But it could also be that possibly many of the American people actually may prefer a divided government, with a Democratic President and a Republican Congress. The argument among many people that a government works better when power is divided is very popular!

One could argue historically that times seemed to be better when we had Republican Presidents (Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush I) and Democratic Congresses; or Democratic Presidents and Republican Congresses (Clinton after 1994)! A lot of this is based upon faded memories and false history!

Closer examination belies this fact, as for instance the great steps forward under Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson with Democratic Congresses in the 1930s and 1960s!

What is clear is that the political situation is in flux, and the turns and twists between now and November will be many, and anyone wanting to bet money on the results six months from now, does so at his or her detriment! 🙁

Public Opinion Polls And Arizona’s Illegal Immigration Law

Ronald 3 Comments

The Arizona illegal immigration legislation has become the topic of conversation all over America, and many Americans are blaming illegal immigration as the major reason for the problems this country faces.

This is, of course, tremendous exaggeration and scapegoating, and has no basis! Most people in this country illegally are law abiding citizens who work hard, pay their taxes, and stay away from the legal authorities, and just want a better life! A small percentage are involved in crime or drugs or gangs, and of course, must be pursued and dealt with to the full extent of the law!

But to scapegoat all Hispanics and Latinos, whether legal or illegal, is unacceptable in our democracy! And that is why the fact that many public opinion polls indicate that a vast majority of Americans support the Arizona law and want it expanded, it cannot be allowed to be pursued on the basis of those biased, emotional feelings promoted by fear and hysteria! 🙁

Let’s face the facts: If we were to ask Americans if they would prefer that African Americans NOT have equality, that there be no civil rights laws, that women be treated again as second class citizens, that gays be subject to prosecution for being what they are, that Catholics and Jews be the subject of persecution as in the past, and that labor be returned to harsh working conditions, it is very possible that many, if not a majority, would support such reversion! 🙁

But we cannot allow prejudice, discrimination, racism, narrow mindedness, ignorance, hysteria, panic and emotionalism to become the basis of denying ANYONE human rights! We are NOT going back to the past when many groups in America were mistreated and denied equality! Those days are over forever! 🙁

Barack Obama’s Popularity Remains High Despite Health Care Controversy

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Amidst all of the criticism of President Obama on conservative talk radio and Fox News Channel, the fact is that he remains extremely popular personally. That is certainly infuriating to his naysayers!

While polls this week show Obama down to an all time low of 46 percent, realize that if after all of the venom used against him by Tea Party activists and other conservatives he is still that close to 50 percent, then indeed he is in good shape!

Polls show that 61 percent still find Obama inspiring; 57 percent see him as decisive; 54 percent state that he gives them hope for the future; and 49 percent say he makes them feel proud.

Only about a third feel Obama is arrogant or detached, or makes them feel angry. Only 12 percent of conservative Republicans like the job Obama is doing, but twice that number still find him inspiring.

Early indications are that Obama is in good shape for 2012, considering these polls numbers from the Pew Research Center. While there may be discontent, Obama has not fallen to the low figures that George W. Bush had, and it is, at this point, hard to see any Republican opponent being strong enough to counteract him.

Obama’s Target Groups To Work On For Support: Independents, Senior Citizens, Suburbanites

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Recent polls make it clear that Barack Obama has three major target groups he will need to work on, as they are becoming more disillusioned with him, when compared to their support for him in 2008.

These groups are Independents, senior citizens, and suburbanites. Independents are unhappy that the Congress has been unable to accomplish very much, while seniors worry about how their health care might be affected by a national health care reform, and suburbanites are suffering through heavy job losses and foreclosures.

Ironically, many people in these target groups seem to think a Republican Congress working with Obama would be better, comparing it to cooperation at times that developed between Bill Clinton and the GOP Congress after 1994. Actually, this concept of divided government as better really is not to be preferred, as much more than not, it causes fireworks and gridlock. The memory of the American people about a split government being preferred is based on false premises and a clouded image of reality! The same Congress that at times worked with Bill Clinton also impeached him and caused tremendous fireworks that impeded the ability to deal with many problems of the 1990s.

The way to regain support of these target groups for the President is to have the Congress accomplish the goal of health care reform, and aggressively bring about a jobs program and a foreclosure initiative that makes average Americans feel that their government is concerned about them, not just Wall Street and the banks!