Presidential Election Of 1976

Centennial Of Gerald Ford’s Birth: A Time To Honor Our 38th President!

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Today is the centennial of President Gerald Ford’s birth, and a moment to celebrate and honor our 38th President.

Gerald Ford will never go down as a great, near great, or above average President, being ranked right in the middle of our 43 Presidents, but he made a vast difference to our nation.

Gerald Ford demonstrated decency, humanity, courage, conviction, and decisiveness when such attributes were needed.

Gerald Ford became President by accident, having had no desire or ambition to be President, but steadying the ship of state after the Watergate Scandal led to the resignation of Richard Nixon.

Thank goodness the nation had found out about the corruption and venality of Vice President Spiro Agnew, forcing his resignation, and the implementation of the 25th Amendment, just passed and ratified six years earlier.

Nixon picked Ford as Agnew’s successor due to his popularity with both his Republican colleagues and the respect and high regard that he was held in by the opposition Democrats, who controlled both houses of Congress.

Ford had served 25 years in the House of Representatives from Grand Rapids, Michigan, and had been the Republican leader in the House for nearly nine years, when he was tapped for the Vice Presidency.

Ford had always had the ambition to become Speaker of the House one day, if only the Republicans were to gain control of the House, which they did not do for 40 years from 1955-1995.

Ford had to “walk on eggs” for the eight months of his Vice Presidency, being there to help Nixon but not be too closely associated with him, and he acted totally in an appropriate manner.

Gerald Ford was a likeable “regular guy”, and graced us with his First Lady, Betty Ford, a truly elegant woman who dignified and added to the role of First Ladies during her two years and five months as a woman of principle, courage, and openness not typical of most earlier First Ladies.

Gerald Ford served only two years, five months and eleven days, a total of 895 days in the Oval Office, the fifth shortest duration of any occupant in the Presidency, with shorter terms of Warren G. Harding, Zachary Taylor, James Garfield, and William Henry Harrison.

Ford faced tough challenges with the decision to pardon Richard Nixon; The Mayaguez Affair with Cambodia; the difficult Recession of 1974-1975, the worst since the Great Depression; the challenge for the 1976 Republican Presidential nomination by former Governor Ronald Reagan; and the difficult election campaign against former Governor Jimmy Carter.

Ford also faced the unbelievable threat of two assassination attempts within seventeen days in September 1975, fortunately ducking bullets twice in an heroic manner.

Ford stood out as a moderate conservative who always could work across the aisle with his rivals, the Democrats, something that would not be admired today by the Tea Party Movement element which has damaged the heritage, tradition and future of the Republican Party.

If Gerald Ford were here today, he would be shocked at the social conservatism of the religious Right and the venal attacks on Barack Obama by conservative ideologues, and would probably not be accepted in the GOP of 2013 as legitimate!

Gerald Ford outlived Ronald Reagan by six weeks, and remains, as of now, our longest lived President, and it is appropriate to wish him a happy 100th birthday!

And I am thrilled to announce that later this week, I will be visiting the Gerald Ford Museum in Grand Rapids, Michigan, with my younger son, and am thrilled that the timing is such as to coincide with the Centennial of Gerald Ford’s birth! I am looking forward to learning more about the historical contributions of our 38th President, who deserves our respect and thanks!

Bob Dole Indicts 2013 Republican Party As Not A Party For Himself, Richard Nixon, Or Ronald Reagan!

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Former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, former Vice Presidential running mate of Gerald Ford in 1976; former Presidential nominee of the Republican Party in 1996; Senate Majority Leader and five term member of the Senate overall; and a total of 36 years in both houses of Congress, was on Fox News Sunday today, and he indicted the present day GOP as a party which would not welcome such venerable political figures as himself, Richard Nixon, and even Ronald Reagan in the 2013 political climate that has been established by a party he does not recognize!

Dole condemned the overuse of the filibuster, making it nearly impossible for any progress to be made on any significant legislation, or nominees for many government positions, including to regulatory commissions and to the judiciary.

Dole suggested a sign “closed for repairs” on the door of the Republican National Committee, as the party tries to come up with positive ideas, and returns to the conservative mainstream, which it has left, with its extremist agenda, with 115 cloture motions in past two years as compared to seven in the first two years that Dole was a Senator during the Nixon Administration!

As long as the Republican Party continues on its present course, it will NEVER win the White House again, and will continue to promote the image that it is only a party that is out to obstruct and block, rather than come up with real solutions to America’s domestic and foreign policy agenda!

Last Four Originally Elected Democratic Presidents Were Underdogs: Will That Happen Again In 2016?

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In the past half century, four Democratic nominees for President, all considered “underdogs”, were elected President.

John F. Kennedy was an underdog in 1960, being a Roman Catholic nominee, thought unlikely to be nominated or elected, but defeating Vice President Richard Nixon, who was far better known.

Jimmy Carter was an underdog in 1976, the first Southern nominee for President since Zachary Taylor in 1848, and really considered the longest of long shots to be the Democratic nominee, and yet won the Presidency over President Gerald Ford.

Bill Clinton was an underdog in 1992, considered part of the “second tier” of possible Democratic nominees for President, and thought to be “dead in the water”, due to the Gennifer Flowers sex scandal, but managing to be the “Comeback Kid”, and win the nomination and the election against President George H. W. Bush.

And Barack Obama was certainly considered an underdog to Hillary Clinton in 2008, and being African American, seemed a particularly “long shot” to go all the way to the Presidency, defeating Senator John McCain of Arizona.

All four Democratic winners all had youth–Kennedy at 43, Carter at 52, Clinton at 46, and Obama at 47 years of age. And get this–these four men were elected exactly SIXTEEN years apart–1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008!

Could this happen again?

Hillary Clinton is seen as the clear front runner, and Joe Biden is the second established “veteran” in the potential race for President in 2016.

But could it be that Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, or Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, or Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, or Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, or Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, or a future Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, or Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts would end up as a sudden surprise during the primaries and caucuses in 2016, and emerge the nominee and the winner of the Presidency?

Who can say, but the past COULD be an indicator of the future!

Age Vs Youth: Will The Republicans And Democrats Be Switching On Their Presidential Nominees In 2016?

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When one analyzes the two major political parties in the past forty years, it has been a general reality that the Republican Party has run Presidential candidates who tend to be much older than the Democratic Party nominees for President.

Witness Richard Nixon, nine years older than George McGovern in 1972; Gerald Ford eleven years older than Jimmy Carter in 1976; Ronald Reagan thirteen years older than Jimmy Carter in 1980; Reagan seventeen years older than Walter Mondale in 1984; George H. W. Bush eight years older than Michael Dukakis in 1988; Bush twenty two years older than Bill Clinton in 1992; Bob Dole twenty three years older than Clinton in 1996; John McCain twenty five years older than Barack Obama in 2008; and Mitt Romney fourteen years older than Obama in 2012. Only in 2000 and 2004 did we see George W. Bush older than Al Gore by only two years and in 2004 actually younger than John Kerry by three years.

This phenomenon is maybe just a coincidence, but it has often been said that the Democrats go for youth and the Republicans for experience in their Presidential nominees.

Well, if that is the case, it is about to be switched dramatically in 2016 if one assumes that either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden are the likely front runners for the Democratic Presidential nomination, as Hillary will be 69 in 2016, and Joe will be 74 in 2016. Clinton would be the second oldest first time nominee, behind Ronald Reagan, and Biden would be the oldest first time nominee.

The Republicans are certain to nominate a candidate decades younger, such as Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, or Ted Cruz, all born in the early 1970s, being therefore mid 40s in 2016. If you consider Chris Christie, Scott Walker, or John Thune, they were born in the 1960s, so would be in the mid 50s. Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann all were born in the 1950s, so would be in their late 50s or in the 60s. There is no candidate born in the 1940s seriously mentioned, unless one expects Newt Gingrich to try again for the Presidency, being just a year younger than Joe Biden and four years older than Hillary Clinton.

The Democrats have alternative possible candidates in Martin O’Malley and Amy Klobuchar born in the early 1960s, so either would be mid 50s in 2016, but Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner, born in the mid 1950s would be nearing or at the age of 60 when running in 2016, and Elizabeth Warren, born in 1949, would be 67 in 2016, only about two years younger than Hillary Clinton.

So we are seeing a likely switch from an older to younger Republican nominee, and a younger to an older Democratic nominee, and the difference in years could be massive, as it was in the past forty years in most Presidential elections.

A final thought: In the nine elections between 1972 and 2012 when the GOP nominee was always older than the Democratic nominee, the Republicans won the election four times, and the Democrats five times, so basically, trying to determine whether age or youth are an advantage is clearly a pure guessing game!

The Extraordinarily Close Relationship Between President Obama And Vice President Biden

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Now that the first term of Barack Obama and Joe Biden is ending, it is worth a few moments to recognize the extraordinarily close relationship that exists between the President and the Vice President.

When one looks back on such relationships in the past, it is clear that no other relationship has been quite as close, as warm, as personally friendly, since the time when Jimmy Carter utilized Walter Mondale as practically a “co President” from 1977-1981.

Vice Presidents never really mattered or were close to a President until the 1950s, when Richard Nixon made the office of Vice President a significant office. But President Dwight D. Eisenhower was not very happy, a lot of the time, with his Vice President, and there were hints that he would have preferred a different running mate in 1956,

The John F. Kennedy–Lyndon B. Johnson relationship was not close at all, and neither was the Johnson–Hubert Humphrey relationship.

The Richard Nixon–Spiro Agnew relationship was not much better, and Nixon with Gerald Ford was only a brief period where the two men avoided contact with the other during the Watergate crisis.

Gerald Ford and Nelson Rockefeller were closer, but Ford chose to drop Rockefeller in favor of Bob Dole for the 1976 Presidential race to please the conservative wing led by Ronald Reagan, and years later, Ford expressed regret that he had allowed himself to dump Rockefeller.

Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale were extraordinarily close, with Mondale being treated as an absolute equal, and the two men remain close friends now after nearly 32 years out of office, the longest lasting Presidential-Vice Presidential team, breaking all records for longevity every day.

Ronald Reagan was not very close to George H. W. Bush personally, and Bush did not take Dan Quayle very seriously at all as a Vice President.

Bill Clinton and Al Gore were friendly and close until the Monica Lewinsky and impeachment issues arose, and then Gore stayed away from Clinton during his own campaign for President in 2000, which very well may have harmed his ability to win, despite a popular vote majority of about a half million votes.

George W. Bush relied on Dick Cheney a great deal, but their closeness, if it ever existed, dissipated in the second term over various matters.

The Obama-Biden friendship and closeness seems not at all affected in any way by events, or Biden’s well known problem with gaffes, and he has played a major role as an adviser on so many issues, domestic and foreign. One can see in so many situations and photos that the two men are close, and have a very warm, personal relationship with each other.

This could create a problem for President Obama IF both Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton decide to run for President, as the President owes a lot to both of them, as well as to former President Bill Clinton, for having worked so hard for his reelection, and giving what many consider the best speech for Obama at the Democratic National Convention as well.

The best situation for Obama then, would be to remain neutral, but with the hope that maybe one or both would decide ultimately, because of their ages and long careers, not to run for President in their 70s (Biden) or nearing 70s (Clinton).

Past Presidential Debates With An Incumbent President: Naturally On The Defensive!

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When one gets away from the momentary panic that many Obama supporters had after last night’s debate against Mitt Romney, and thinks rationally, and analyzes Presidential debate history, it is not all that surprising that a challenger will go on the attack and be aggressive with a sitting President, and set him back in the first debate they have in a campaign year.

Remember that a sitting President is busy every day, and is not as up to date in debating as a challenger, who has had to survive many debates and questions in order to reach the point of a Presidential nomination.

So when we look at the past, we realize the following:

Gerald Ford was on the defensive against Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Jimmy Carter was on the defensive against Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Ronald Reagan was on the defensive against Walter Mondale in 1984.

George H. W. Bush was on the defensive against both Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992.

George W. Bush was on the defensive against John Kerry in 2004.

Despite this reality, Reagan and the second Bush recovered to win, while Ford, Carter, and the first Bush lost the election that ensued.

But also realize that Ford had inherited a mess from Richard Nixon, and had never seen himself in the Presidency before being selected by Nixon to replace Spiro Agnew as Vice President, and he was strongly challenged by Ronald Reagan in the primaries in 1976.

Also realize that Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown in the primaries in 1980, and faced a charismatic former actor in Reagan, and a tumultuous crisis with Iran in 1980.

And realize that the first Bush faced a challenge from Pat Buchanan in the primaries in 1992, and a double challenge from Bill Clinton and Ross Perot, which undermined his ability to win votes that Perot took away from him in the fall campaign.

Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush faced no such challenges, and were able to overcome their weaknesses in the first debate of 1984 and 2004.

Additionally, Bill Clinton, facing no challenge in 1996, simply overwhelmed Bob Dole in the first and all debates of that year, with his charisma a major plus!

If one remains calm, one realizes that Barack Obama will recover from this disappointing debate, has charisma, had no challenger in the primaries, and therefore, will do like Reagan, Clinton, and the second Bush did–win reelection—-rather than lose election as Ford did, and reelection as Carter and the first Bush did!

From Nixon And Agnew To Romney And Ryan: Has Honesty Improved? NO!

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On this day in 1974, President Gerald Ford pardoned former President Richard Nixon, preventing any prosecution of Nixon for involvement in the Watergate scandal.

This highly controversial decision would undermine Ford, and help to cause his defeat in 1976, when he lost the Presidency to Jimmy Carter by the small margin of two percent, and close election defeats in Ohio and Hawaii.

Years later, it would be concluded that Ford did the right thing, but the issue of Nixon’s long career of lying and deception still remains as a troubling legacy.

And now, we have two candidates who are tallying up a record of lies and deception unseen since the time of Nixon and Spiro Agnew, his Vice President!

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have been lying their way across America, since Romney announced for President, and since Ryan became the Vice Presidential running mate less than a month ago.

It could be argued that every politician lies, and cannot be trusted, and while that is a sad commentary that people believe is a given, it is not true if one compares pledges to facts.

One can pledge to do things, and much of it does not work out, for various reasons and factors.

But to make claims that are shown to be factually incorrect, and fail to acknowledge the errors, and double down on the lies when everyone knows they are lies, is a method of demagoguery that has become common to both Romney and now, belatedly, Ryan.

Do we want an administration that insults us, by lying constantly, on the idea that most people might be ignorant of the facts and the truth? Or do we want an administration which might pledge many changes, and only gets some done, but without telling lies over and over again in the process?

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are becoming the most dishonest team to run for President since at least Nixon and Agnew, and we know what happened 40-45 years ago!

Is this what the American people should have to deal with, which will only add to their cynicism and disgust with their government?

Why cannot Romney and Ryan run an honest, forthright campaign, without spreading lies, deceit, rumors, myths, and going for the lowest common denominator?

In the long run, however, it is clear that the American people, in polls, do not trust or even like Romney, and the attitude toward Ryan is also being shaped by his behavior, so this time, what Nixon and Agnew did in 1968 and 1972 will not work, but still, it is a tragedy for the nation that the honesty level of Romney and Ryan is the lowest since Nixon and Agnew!

38 Years Since Gerald Ford Became President: The Last Moderate, Mainstream Republican Before Conservatism Took Hold Of The GOP!

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On this day in 1974, President Richard Nixon resigned, and Gerald Ford, who never sought the Presidency, became President, serving out the term of two years, five and a half months, losing a full term to Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Ford had his problems and opponents, and his administration will never be ranked among the best, but as Ted Kennedy said in 1999, awarding special honors to President Ford, 25 years after he pardoned President Nixon, Ford had indeed done the right thing regarding Nixon, and had demonstrated both courage and decisiveness in office.

In so doing, Ford gained the respect of the American people, maybe somewhat belatedly, but when on looks back almost four decades ago, one realizes that Gerald Ford was a decent man, a compassionate man, a moderate conservative who worked in the mainstream, but was weakened by the beginning of the right wing takeover of the GOP by Ronald Reagan, which also affected the Presidency of George H. W. Bush and that of his son, George W. Bush.

Ford looks better all of the time, particularly at a time when the GOP is so far to the right that it is literally scary what they wish to do–abolish the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Great Society of Lyndon B. Johnson!

And his wife, Betty, is also an inspiring figure, much beloved and respected.

So in retrospect, Gerald and Betty Ford look a lot better than what we have been offered since by the party that once had as leaders such luminaries as Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower!

Virginia And Florida: Two “Swing” States With Strong “Blue Areas”: Will It Be Enough For Barack Obama?

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Two “swing” states, crucial to the Presidential Election of 2012, are also Southern states, which have usually been fertile Republican territory, but not necessarily this time, as they were not in the Presidential Election of 2008.

Those two states are Virginia and Florida, where much of the battle for the Presidency will be centered over the next six months.

Virginia had voted Republican since after 1964, until Barack Obama won it in 2008. The key area that helped bring the Obama victory was northern Virginia, near Washington DC. This area has seen a continuous growth of federal government employees, many of them for the Pentagon in northern Virginia, but also other government workers who have settled in that area of the state. Additionally, many young people, African Americans, and Hispanics and Latinos have settled in Northern Virginia in recent years, and women have been alienated from the Republicans, due to the vaginal probe bill introduced by Governor Bob McDonnell, a leading candidate for the Vice Presidential nomination to run with Mitt Romney.

Virginia is really two states, and in that regard, not all that different than many other states, but the Northern Virginia vote was enough to give Obama the win in 2008, and right now, it seems likely that scenario will happen again in 2012.

Florida is another such case, with South Florida the “blue” area of the state, and helping Barack Obama to win the state in 2008, only the third time since the late 1960s to go to the Democrats (the other times being 1976 and 1996 when Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton carried the state).

The margin of victory in Florida was gained by South Florida support, just as was so in Northern Virginia, and the growth of non Hispanic Cubans, plus the northeastern and Jewish influence in South Florida, seem likely to give Barack Obama another opportunity to gain the state in a close vote finish in November!

Mitt Romney’s Endorsement By Jeb Bush And What It May Mean

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has had a good 24 hour cycle, with the major win in Illinois, support from a wide band of voting groups, and the endorsement by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush is one of the heavyweights in the GOP, and his endorsement, held off to now, is a prized one.

It would seem that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, ending up 12 points behind, will have less opportunity to move ahead, although he might win Louisiana this weekend. But he would have to win WIsconsin on April 3, and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24, to remain alive, and nothing in this regard is certain.

Meanwhile, with Newt Gingrich ending up last, behind Ron Paul, in Illinois, it would seem that it is time for the former House Speaker to leave the race, but his ego, and the fact money is still rolling in, means he will wish the publicity to continue running, even though he has only won South Carolina and Georgia.

Ron Paul has won nowhere except the US VIrgin Islands, but he is not about to withdraw either.

The goal of the three stragglers is to prevent 1,144 delegate votes for Mitt Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, and the promotion of the first contested convention since Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford fought it out on the convention floor in 1976.

Bush’s backing of Romney is certainly a sign that the “Establishment” Republicans want unity, seeing it as essential now to organize against President Barack Obama.

And there is now speculation that Jeb Bush might accept the Vice Presidential nomination with Romney, but that seems highly unlikely. Bush certainly would help with Hispanic and Latino voters, and mainline conservatives, but Bush does not seem like the type to be number two on anyone’s ticket.