New Hampshire Primary

Two New Hampshire Republican Debates In 13 Hours!

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With the Iowa Caucuses results starting to sink in, and with the New Hampshire Primary now about two and a half days away, the six remaining GOP candidates for President square off tonight at 9 pm EST, televised on ABC, and at 9 AM EST tomorrow morning on NBC and MSNBC as part of MEET THE PRESS.

To have two debates over a period of 13 hours is in itself amazing, and a real test of ability to hold one’s composure, answer in an appropriate way without obvious mistakes, and make an impression on New Hampshire and national voters.

Mitt Romney is heavily favored, but needs to keep his wide lead over the field, or else it will be considered a defeat by many media sources. He also needs to keep his calm demeanor, and not overreact temperamentally to any attacks by his opponents, of which there are likely to be many, particularly by Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, his closest challengers in the long run.

Newt Gingrich needs to demonstrate that he can be strong, assertive, but not obnoxious or condescending against his opponents, never easy for him, and to stop being a “cry baby” about strong attacks by his opponents, since he was the master of such tactics in his years in the House of Representatives.

Rick Santorum needs to show that he is concerned about other issues than social conservatism, and that he has the ability to draw independent support, which seems unlikely.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul, and is not going to worry about any impressions he makes, as he goes by a different drummer, as the saying goes.

Rick Perry needs to prove he has any legitimacy left, and not stumble as he has so often done in earlier debates, and convince people that he is the better choice for social conservatives, than Gingrich or Santorum, not a likely scenario.

Finally, Jon Huntsman needs to win New Hampshire, or end up a competitive second, as he has built his campaign so much on New Hampshire, ignoring Iowa altogether. If he wins or end up a close second, he can move on to Florida and other states. Otherwise, he is done for 2012!

So that is the summary of what must be accomplished or perceived about each of the six finalists for the nomination, and there will be lots of analysis after the joint debates, with the primary just two days away by their end!

Further Proof Of The Importance Of Every Single Vote: Eight Vote Win For Romney In Iowa

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There are many Americans who think it is not important to vote, that no one person can have an impact or change a result of an election.

That falsehood was proved to be inaccurate again last night when Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses over Rick Santorum by the closest margin of any Republican Presidential nomination contest in its entire history–EIGHT VOTES statewide!

The win is better than a loss, of course, but realistically, Rick Santorum gained a lot more by losing by eight votes than Romney did by squeaking out such a tiny margin, and proving that he still has a problem with conservative and Tea Party Republicans, winning only one out of four votes in a state he has campaigned in since 2007, and doing no better in percentage than he did in the 2008 caucuses.

It looks more than ever that the battle is down to Romney vs the “Anti Romney”, who appears to be Santorum, plus the possibility of Jon Huntsman, but only if he is able to win New Hampshire or end up a very close second.

Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are, thankfully, no longer factors in the race, even if they decide to remain in the competition.

Ron Paul will continue to compete, but will not be the nominee, and likely will not do as well as third place anywhere else but Iowa.

Newt Gingrich will do his usual “slash and burn” strategy against Romney, copying his entire career in the House of Representatives, but a poor fourth gives him almost no chance to move on into serious competition.

So we are down to three candidates in realistic terms, and possibly only two after New Hampshire next Tuesday!

The Demise Of Michele Bachmann And Rick Perry: Good Riddance!

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Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry have effectively been eliminated from the Republican Presidential race by their poor sixth and fifth place finish in the Iowa Caucuses.

There should be no tears shed over this, as both candidates were absolutely horrible in their performance, and showed high levels of stupidity and dangerous views in their quest for the Presidency!

Never has anyone finishing lower than fourth in Iowa gone on to victory, and only John McCain in 2008 went from fourth to the nomination, but realistically, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich would have to rise magically to first in New Hampshire as McCain did in 2008, and that is NOT going to occur!

Ron Paul ended up, considering his young and naive supporters, a disappointing third, so the race should be seen as down to three candidates: Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and IF he can produce a miracle in New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman, who did not compete in Iowa, but MUST win New Hampshire to have a chance to move on.

So the Iowa Caucuses have done what they are designed to do–winnow the field of candidates, which is now down to, at most, four or five candidates.

On 40th Anniversary Of Iowa Caucuses And 60th Anniversary Of New Hampshire Primary, A Proposal For Regional Presidential Primaries

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Forty years ago, the Iowa Caucuses began, and sixty years ago, the New Hampshire Primary began, and they have become the center of attention in the battle every four years to nominate the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

There has been much discontent with this system, whereby these two small rural states, unrepresentative of the nation, have a much greater impact on the nomination process than they should be allowed to have.

So the author proposes for the future a Regional Primary system, in which there would be five “Super Tuesdays” spread three weeks apart, starting the second Tuesday in January and ending at the beginning of April, with each four years in a twenty year cycle, a different regional primary going first, and all the regional primaries being rotated so that each primary will, over 20 years, go first, second, third, fourth and last in the voting process, in order to make the system fair and equitable.

Each regional primary would have at least one major state in electoral votes as part of the process, so as to make the impact of all the regional primaries be considered balanced and approximately of equal impact.

There would be a NORTHEASTERN primary–consisting of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia–11 states and the nation’s capital–with a total of 112 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHERN primary, consisting of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana–12 states– with 135 electoral votes.

There would be a MIDWEST primary, consisting of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma–13 states–with 125 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHWEST-MOUNTAIN STATES primary, consisting of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho–9 states–and 85 electoral votes.

And finally, there would be a PACIFIC COAST primary, with Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska and Hawaii–5 states–with 81 electoral votes.

With the primaries being regional and rotating, all states over a twenty year period would have equal impact, and campaigning would be easier, as the mileage differences would be minor since all the states competing on the same day, and with three weeks between primary dates, would be convenient for campaign swings and travel.

This would be a much better system than the crazy, disjointed one we now have, and would get the American people much more motivated, involved, and likely to participate in the primaries!

Further Evidence Of Insignificance Of Iowa Caucuses, And Significance Of New Hampshire Primary!

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So much attention is paid to the Iowa Caucuses, but the more one examines them, one realizes how unimportant to history Iowa really is.

Only George W. Bush and Barack Obama have won the Iowa Caucuses and gone on to being elected President. Jimmy Carter fell behind “Uncommitted” in 1976. One could say that since the two most recent Presidents won Iowa, that it is an indication of the changing role of Iowa, but that is really highly doubtful!

At the same time, New Hampshire’s Primary HAS been VERY significant in picking Presidents, as Jimmy Carter in 1976 and John F. Kennedy in 1960 won the state, and Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H W Bush in 1988 also won the state.

Historical Reality Of Iowa (Top Three) And New Hampshire (Top Two) Are The Only Choices For Presidential Nomination Of Either Party

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All of the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination contend they will go on, even if they perform poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But the historical reality is that unless one ends up in the top three in Iowa AND the top two in New Hampshire, there is no future for such a candidate.

The only exceptions are Bill Clinton in 1992 in Iowa in 4th place behind “favorite son” Tom Harkin, “Uncommitted”, and Paul Tsongas, but Harkin winning 76 percent of the vote; and John McCain, who in 2008 in Iowa ran behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but lost to Thompson for third place only by a total of 424 votes. NEVER has anyone in either party ending up lower than second place in New Hampshire won the Presidential nomination of either political party!

Thus, only five Iowa third or fourth place finishers have ended up winning New Hampshire and being the nominee: Bill Clinton fourth in 1992, Michael Dukakis third in 1988, George McGovern third in 1972, John McCain fourth in 2008, and George H W Bush third in 1988.

So, assuming the polls are correct, Jon Huntsman (not really competing in Iowa), Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and probably Newt Gingrich, are “toast”, with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and probably Rick Santorum (due to a late surge at the proper time), the real contenders in New Hampshire.

That would mean that Rick Santorum would become the candidate of the “social conservatives”, but the odds are that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP nominee for President in 2012 against President Obama!

The Iowa Republican Caucuses Historically: A Waste Of Time!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Iowa Caucuses, which have existed since 1972 for the Democratic Party and competitively for the Republicans since 1976, have been largely a “waste of time” as far as picking future Presidents, and even Presidential nominees.

At least, the Democrats have chosen Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama, with Carter, Clinton and Obama going on to the White House.

But the Republican Caucuses have been much less successful and representative of what happened. Only Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 have gone on to be the nominee, and only Bush being elected and reelected. There was no actual vote between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan in 1976, and Reagan lost in 1980 and ran unopposed in 1984, and the same for George H W Bush in 1988 and no opposition in 1992.

The point is that the Iowa Caucuses gain an inordinate amount of attention, but only maybe a bit more than 100,000 people participate, far fewer than a primary in percentage of voters, and therefore, it has never been seen as a reliable barometer of who a future Presidential nominee or winner might be!

So don’t tend to think that the results in Iowa will matter, as the New Hampshire primary has ALWAYS been a much better barometer for the fortunes of Presidential candidates, since it emerged in 1952.

The Death Of Kim Jong Il: Its Possible Effect On Jon Huntsman

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The death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il could have the effect of boosting the candidacy of Jon Huntsman for the Republican Presidential nomination!

Huntsman, the former Utah Governor, has not been doing well in most polls, although he is now third in New Hampshire, but as this author has said over and over again, as former Ambassador to China, and formerly to Singapore, Huntsman EASILY has the best foreign policy background of any GOP candidate!

In a difficult time in Asian affairs, with the uncertainty about the future of North Korea, a nuclear nation, and the great significance of China in world affairs, Jon Huntsman is uniquely qualified, and is a real potential threat to the reelection of Barack Obama.

Don’t be surprised that Jon Huntsman suddenly has his “surge”, and just at the right time in foreign affairs, reminding us that the economy is NOT the only issue that matters,and in the long run, is not important as compared to foreign policy!

Ron Paul In Lead In Iowa Polls, But That Will Be His Peak, With Jon Huntsman In New Hampshire The REAL Story To Watch!

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Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the libertarian favorite, and seen by some as a Tea Party original due to his libertarian views, now leads in Iowa, according to the Public Policy Polling organization, considered a reputable poll of public opinion.

It now seems likely that Paul might win the Iowa Caucuses, but before one gets “excited”, realize that Iowa is far from a barometer as to who shall become the Presidential nominee.

The better barometer, by far, is the New Hampshire primary, and latest polls indicate that Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, is rising as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are falling. This should be Romney’s state, but Huntsman has been predicting that he will win New Hampshire, which would catapult him into a position of leadership that so often has led to “momentum” to go on and become the Presidential nominee of either political party.

The most interesting development will be whether Huntsman, who has been ignored by just about everyone in political prognosticating, can “surge” at just the right moment.

If he does, he could be Barack Obama’s greatest nightmare, as he is still, by far, the best qualified candidate the GOP offers for President–a rational, reasonable, sane person in the tradition of the Republican Party of the past!

“None Of The Above” Best Choice In Iowa Republican Caucuses!

Ronald 1 Comment

After a Fox News Channel debate last night, preceded by the ABC News debate earlier this week, and both debates conducted in Iowa, it is clear that the best choice for Republican Caucus voters is to vote “None Of The Above”, as it is obvious that none of the candidates are truly worthy of their support!

The only candidate worth considering is Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in the ABC News debate, although he did in the Fox News debate. But he is not making a major effort in Iowa, anyway, focusing his attention in New Hampshire, where he has experienced a surge to third place, as disillusionment with Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney is mounting.

Mitt Romney did better in last night’s debate than the one earlier this week, while Newt Gingrich showed his weaknesses and shortcomings yesterday, particularly his patronizing attitude toward Michele Bachmann, who actually has had some good points to make in these past two debates, against both Romney and Gingrich, who she has labeled as “Newt Romney”!

Rick Perry has only managed to propose a “part time Congress”, similar to what Texas has, which explains why Texas is so poorly governed! The fact is that Congress needs to spend MORE TIME, not less, in dealing with the problems of the country! Gingrich wanted to change our Constitution also, like Perry, by calling for federal judges to be subjected to congressional challenge face to face, a whacky and dangerous idea for the “separation of powers” doctrine.

Ron Paul may be the one to benefit from all this, as it seems more likely that the vote in Iowa caucuses may be very evenly divided, with a narrow win by Paul being possible!

So it might be that “None Of The Above” is the best answer, ultimately, in the Iowa Caucuses!