Mitt Romney

Why Barack Obama Will Be A Repeat Of Bill Clinton Electorally, Rather Than Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, And George H.W. Bush!

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A lot of political observers seem to think that Barack Obama is doomed to lose re-election, just as Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

The author will contend that rather than that unfortunate history, Barack Obama will repeat the electoral experience of Bill Clinton in 1996!

The question, of course, is what is the rationale behind this thought of the author?

Gerald Ford–was an unelected President, coming after Watergate, challenged in the primaries by Ronald Reagan, an extremely charismatic individual, who almost took the nomination from him. Ford was unable to unite the party around him after the Reagan battle, despite dumping Nelson Rockefeller for Bob Dole for Vice President. Ford had little opportunity to convince the country that he was deserving of election, and yet ALMOST defeated Jimmy Carter, which he would have done if he had won a few more thousand votes in Ohio and Hawaii! Ford was not seen as all that capable to be President by many people, with the poor economy of the time.

Jimmy Carter–had a difficult last year in office, with the Afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union, the Iranian hostage crisis, and the challenge in the primaries by Senator Ted Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown. He faced a charismatic opponent in Ronald Reagan, and a third party opponent in John Anderson. He was not a warm personality, and came across as weak and ineffective.

George H. W. Bush–faced a primary opponent in Pat Buchanan, and a strong third party challenger in Ross Perot. His Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, had a lot of charisma, and was helped by the strong showing of Perot. And Bush did not have a particularly likeable personality, more respected for his ability than his understanding of average Americans and their lives.

Bill Clinton–engendered strong feelings for and against during his first term, and had charisma dripping off him, as compared to Bush and Bob Dole, his 1996 re-election opponent. Times were good, and he looked strong in his battles against the GOP Congress run by Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. He had no opposition for the second term nomination, and his opponent, Dole, being 73 years old, did not help his challenge to Clinton. Also, Wall Street gave more financial support to Clinton to hedge their bets, frustrating Bob Dole!

Barack Obama–well liked, even by those who do not like what he has done, but he has accomplished a lot in office, particularly in foreign affairs and national security. He has brought about substantial domestic reform despite strong opposition from the Republican party, and has loads of charisma, and tons of funding, including as with Clinton, from Wall Street, which, even if opposed as they were to Clinton and now Obama, hedge their bets and support him more than the Republican nominee, just as with Bob Dole in 1996. Also, there is a good chance of a Tea Party right wing party rebellion if Mitt Romney, the likely nominee, is the choice of the Republican party. The opposition does not have a candidate to excite the nation, so although the economy is horrible, the likelihood is that more Americans will recognize the reality that one does not overcome a near depression overnight, and will decide to stick with Obama, just as they did in the height of the Great Depression with Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Knives Come Out At Republican Presidential Debate: All The Better For Barack Obama!

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The Republican Presidential debate last night in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, saw the knives really come out in the open!

Mitt Romney and Herman Cain were viciously attacked by Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. The gloves came off, and the gentle tone of earlier debates is obviously over for good!

Romney handled the attacks quite well, but lost his cool and his smile, and was annoyed at the constant interruptions by Perry and Santorum. Herman Cain kept his cool more, but his economic ideas were ridiculed by Perry, Santorum and Bachmann, with Romney a little more diplomatic.

It makes some wonder if Romney is considering Cain as his Vice Presidential running mate. Certainly, there is no chance of any other opponent being considered.

But first things first, as Romney is not well liked by his opponents, just as in 2008, and will face a long torturous road to the nomination, particularly from Rick Perry, who has the funds to run a long race.

All to the better for Barack Obama, who had to be smiling last night!

The Likeability And Empathy Factor In Presidential Politics

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A factor in how people vote that is often not discussed is what we might call the “Likeability and Empathy” factor.

The average voter wants to LIKE a candidate on a personal level, and feel that the candidate cares about his or her life, shows empathy toward the circumstances of one’s life.

This is particularly true of Presidential elections, when a voter realizes that he or she will have to look at and hear the voice of the winner for the next four years, so they want to like the candidate they vote for.

In that regard, Barack Obama has a great advantage over his GOP opponents, as he is eminently likeable, and is working on improving his empathy image, which has been somewhat lacking, and has been criticized.

Mitt Romney is not likeable, even by his opponents in the GOP race for the Presidential nomination, and seems unconcerned about the plight of the average American. John McCain and Mike Huckabee, among others, could not get along with the former Massachusetts Governor in 2007-2008, and this time around, it is clear that Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman certainly dislike him intensely.

But Newt Gingrich is also not likeable, nor is Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, or Ron Paul. They all demonstrate a mean spirited nature which undermines ability of people to trust them. Even Jon Huntsman comes across to many as a bit haughty in personality, leaving only Herman Cain, maybe, as likeable, but after saying people out of work or not rich should blame themselves, very likely to lose that image very quickly!

The problem for these GOP candidates is that they come across as not having any empathy toward average Americans, who are facing a crisis unmatched since the Great Depression, and therefore, with their mean spirited nature, they are not likeable in the way voters expect from their President.

So Barack Obama has a great edge in the “Likeability and Empathy” factor, and this should not be ignored as a factor in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2012.

The Nevada CNN Republican Debate: Romney Widens His Lead

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The Nevada CNN Republican debate tonight was a clear cut victory for Mitt Romney, but also a time of real conflict between Romney and Rick Perry and Romney and Rick Santorum.

Herman Cain was criticized broadly on his 9-9-9 plan and Romney on Romneycare in Massachusetts; but there was great contentiousness and confrontation throughout the debate, particularly between Romney and the two Ricks, who constantly interrupted the former Massachusetts Governor. Romney lectured both of them in a very strong manner, which helped his case, and the audience seemed quite supportive of Romney.

It seems to the author that despite Santorum and Michele Bachmann trying to draw attention to their differences with Romney and Herman Cain and Rick Perry, that neither gained enough to be a major factor in the Presidential nomination battle.

On the other hand, Newt Gingrich probably gained a bit more legitimacy, as did Ron Paul. Both obviously, even if one does not like their views on issues, are extremely intelligent, and are effective in asserting their views.

So Romney gained; Gingrich and Paul benefited; Perry and Cain did not come across well; and Santorum and Bachmann, despite valiant efforts, did not improve their position in the battle for the nomination.

While Perry has lots of money, and Cain has likeability, it would seem as if Gingrich and possibly Paul, could become the real threats to Mitt Romney, if there is any real possibility of denying him the nomination. But betting money would still be on Mitt Romney as the GOP Presidential candidate in 2012!

The Nevada GOP Presidential Debate: In The Ultimate State Of Illegal Immigration, High Umemployment, And High Foreclosures!

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It is extremely ironic that the Republican Presidential debate tonight in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, is in the ultimate state of illegal immigration, high unemployment, and high foreclosures!

Here we have Herman Cain talking about electrified, barbed wire, 20 foot high fences to keep refugees from entering the country. He jokes about it, and also earlier had talked about having alligators in moats to stop illegal immigration. Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and even Mitt Romney talk tough about creating barriers, and being hardline about undocumented aliens, as if we are about to deport 11 million people who have become part of our society in a positive manner, but yet face discrimination in states such as Arizona and Alabama!

At the same time, the Republicans have no plans on job creation, and instead refuse to support legislation to keep teachers, fire fighters and police officers on the job, undermining the education and safety of American citizens. They refuse to back any programs for infrastructure or technology advancements, and to extend unemployment compensation to the most desperate! What a despicable state of affairs!

Also, Mitt Romney makes clear that there should be no slowing of foreclosures on housing, effectively throwing people out on the streets of America without any shelter, except maybe their cars, if they still own one!

Nevada is, in many ways, GROUND ZERO, on the most crucial issues of the day, and the Republicans will, hopefully, face tough grilling by Anderson Cooper and CNN on their hard hearted, “tough love”, approaches to crucial issues of survival for those less fortunate in our society!

The Collapse Of The Jon Huntsman Campaign: The End Of Any Chance For Moderation In The GOP!

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Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, arguably the most moderate and qualified candidate in the Republican race for the Presidential nomination, seems ready to implode his campaign.

Consistently low in public opinion polls since he announced his candidacy in June of this year; running out of campaign money, including that of his personal fortune, even before third quarter totals are in; seen as only marginal in his debate performances up to now; and now announcing a boycott of this week’s Nevada debate sponsored by CNN, because of Nevada changing its caucus election date, therefore interfering with New Hampshire’s early primary date, it seems highly unlikely that Huntsman can become even briefly the “flavor of the week”, as Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and now Herman Cain, have been able to accomplish.

Do not be surprised if Jon Huntsman becomes the first of the present eight candidates to withdraw from the race, a sad moment for the party when it does happen, as it will eliminate any chance for a moderate nominee for the Republican Party.

Of course, one might say that Mitt Romney has been a moderate in the past, but it is clear that Romney will be a chameleon, a person ready to move to the right to appeal to the Tea Party Movement if it will help promote his candidacy and prevent a third party challenge.

If one is looking to Mitt Romney to move to the center, don’t hold your breath as he has abandoned every viewpoint he had that once gave him promise as someone to believe in .

In sum, Mitt plus ambition means the ultimate “flip flopper” in in play, and moderation goes out the window, once Jon Huntsman withdraws from the race, likely very soon!

How The Republican Party Has Gone Wrong: Lincoln Chafee’s View

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Rhode Island Independent Governor Lincoln Chafee is a former moderate Republican Senator, whose father, John Chafee, was Governor as a Republican from 1963-1969; Secretary of the Navy under President Richard Nixon from 1969-1972; and Senator from 1976 to 1999 when he passed away.

Both Chafees were mainstream Republicans, and the younger Chafee became an independent after losing his Senate seat in 2006.

Chafee is dismayed that even Northeastern and New England Republicans have moved to the right, and he mentions Mitt Romney, who has been trying to change his image from what it was before 2006; former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani; former New York Governor George Pataki; and even, outside the Atlantic coast, Senator John McCain of Arizona–all of whom he says have lost their principles due to ambitions and desires for higher office.

National ambitions have caused these men to become chameleons, who cannot be believed, as they change their beliefs and principles, and therefore are “completely different” from what they once were.

Realize how troubling this statement by Chafee is, that it indicates no one can trust that any politician believes what he advocates, if he can advance by compromising his principles and appealing to those who are really the enemies of everything he once believed in!

When, oh when, will we have candidates for public office and the Presidency who stick to their convictions, “come hell or high water”?

When will candidates stop appealing to the extremes and go toward where most voters are, in the center, as Lincoln Chafee has done, and should be commended for?

The Panic In Republican Ranks: A Poll Shows Herman Cain Now In The Lead, As Mitt Romney Shows Inability To Inspire And Unite Extremists!

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So now the new “flavor of the month” is Herman Cain, a man with no political experience, and most known for being CEO of Godfather Pizza!

Cain has ZERO knowledge on almost everything, and spends his time selling his autobiography and promoting his “9-9-9” plan, which economists make clear would not work, and would certainly hurt the poor and lower middle classes, and benefit the rich.

This is a man who insults people of his own race as being “brainwashed” to support Democrats, even though the Republicans have NEVER appealed to African Americans since the New Deal!

This is a man who says that if you are not wealthy or do not have a job, it is your own fault!

This is a man who lacks any depth, joining Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry in coming across as IGNORANCE personified!

The idea that the Republican Party would nominate any of this group for the White House is mind boggling, but it is much more likely that Cain will fade as Bachmann and Perry have, and maybe Santorum will suddenly surge for a week or two as well!

Only the two Mormons in the race, Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman, are legitimate candidates to be President, but their religion and the lack of moderation in the party, due to the Tea Party Movement, endangers the party’s future, as they seem likely to nominate a disastrous candidate in the vein of Barry Goldwater in 1964, and Goldwater himself would be preferable today to these losers!

Despite discontent with Barack Obama, it is very hard to conceive that the nation will abandon him and his party, when they realize the disaster the GOP has become, and how they have taken absolutely no action to deal with the economy!

The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential Debate: Romney Still Ahead!

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The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential debate tonight in New Hampshire was more of the same: Mitt Romney winning the debate!

Romney continued to look competent, confident, relaxed, smiling, and unruffled. He certainly had a good day, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsing him, and then sitting in the audience at the Dartmouth College debate in New Hampshire.

Herman Cain was given the seat next to Romney, due to his being second in recent polls, but he was constantly under attack for his 9-9-9 plan, which economists have said will not work, and would particularly harm poor people. It seems as if he probably did not win support based on his responses to the attacks, which seemed lame.

Rick Perry did not improve his standing, which has been in decline, and actually looked confused and uncomfortable when the camera happened to focus on him when he was listening to others speak.

Jon Huntsman, sadly, did not seem to improve his image, despite his great credentials, and it now seems unlikely that he will improve in the polls, unless miraculously he can build up in New Hampshire, the state he is counting on to boost his campaign.

MIchele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich did nothing spectacular to improve their chances, although Gingrich did gain applause for some of his rhetorical lines!

All of the candidates avoided specifics on the economy, and made many claims that were exaggerated, already being pointed out just a half hour after the debate, which simply focused on that subject. It was easier for them to condemn others and call for firings and blame, and to attack the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The candidates made it clear they did not want to raise taxes one cent, and yet did not want to cut defense, something which is impossible in reality if taxes are not raised.

Did any of the candidates give hope that the economy would indeed be better under them than under President Obama? If anyone seriously thinks so, they are delusional!

It will be interesting to see the polls in the next few days, as to who ends up second behind Romney. Will Cain keep his second position, or who will replace him as the “anti Romney”? That is the question that most comes out of this debate, with another one scheduled next week, sponsored by CNN in Nevada, one of the states with the highest rate of unemployment!

The Chris Christie Endorsement Of Mitt Romney: An Attempt To Outflank The Tea Party Movement In The Republican Party!

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The decision of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, fresh off a choice NOT to run for the GOP Presidential nomination, to endorse former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for President is a major victory for Romney in his battle with Rick Perry and other conservatives in the party.

Christie adds legitimacy to Romney as someone who can appeal across the political spectrum within the party, and certainly puts Christie on a short list of potential Vice Presidential choices for Romney, if he ends up the nominee, even though it seems likely that Christie would not wish to be a “second fiddle”, when he is the powerful Governor of a state which makes that office very consequential in the state constitution.

However, it can also be seen as the “Establishment” Northeastern Republicans trying to co-opt the Tea Party Movement, which is the extreme right wing within the party, and secretly terrifies many in the party.

Since so many Wall Street types and Establishment people were pushing Christie to run, it is assumed that they are now switching to Romney, even if with some reluctance and doubt, in order to stop Perry and other conservatives from taking over the party apparatus.

The question still is there: Will the Tea Party Movement be willing to back Romney, with his changing views on social issues, on health care, and with his Mormon faith? If not, it means a threat of a third party movement which could defeat Romney. So will Romney move to the right further, or ignore the Tea Party Movement and attempt to run as a centrist candidate to win independents, moderates, and conservative Democrats?

It will be interesting to watch tonight’s debate in New Hampshire, sponsored by Bloomberg Television and the Washington Post, as to how Romney answers questions, and deals with attacks by Perry, Herman Cain, and others, including Jon Huntsman, who wants very much to start to be a real moderate alternative to Romney!