Midterm Elections Of 2010

The Failure Of Republican Women Senate Candidates In 2010!

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The year 2010 was supposed to be the year of the Republican woman Senators, but it turned out to be not that at all!

Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire did win the vacant seat in New Hampshire, but she had come across as noncontroversial in her race.

But Sharron Angle of Nevada, Christine O’Donnell of Delaware, Carly Fiorina of California, and Linda McMahon of Connecticut all lost their races, with Fiorina and McMahon spending millions of their own personal fortunes on trying to go from the corporate world to the Senate. Angle also had millions of dollars donated to her campaign to unseat Harry Reid, but fell far short of such a possibility.

O’Donnell, of course, had the problem of being seen as totally unqualified in every sense for the Senate, and the GOP defeat of Congressman Mike Castle in the primary basically gave away the seat to Chris Coons, who could not have had better luck!

Meanwhile, Democratic women in the Senate who were up for re-election won another term, specifically Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington State.

So the era of the Republican woman in the Senate is not quite here, with only Ayotte, Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, and Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe in Maine representing the fairer sex for the GOP in the Senate. With Lisa Murkowski leading in her write in campaign to retain her seat in Alaska, the number of women who are Senate Republicans might rise from four to five, if Murkowski is able to produce what many consider a miracle!

But actually, at least in the mind of Tea Party Movement activists, Hutchison, Collins and Snowe are all seen as targets when they come up for re-election, as being too moderate! 🙁

So it is still easier for Democratic women than it is for Republican women, when it comes to service in the US Senate!

Was The Scott Brown Senate Victory In January The Beginning Of A Trend In Massachusetts Politics? NO!

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When Scott Brown won the Senate seat of Ted Kennedy in January, it seemed to many that it was a sign of the growth of the Republican Party in Massachusetts!

Now, however, with all the results in, it turns out that Brown’s victory was a fluke, as EVERY House seat was won by Democrats, as well as the Governorship and other statewide executive positions! This is, of course, nothing new in Massachusetts, and Brown’s victory was an aberration!

So this should be a sign that Scott Brown, despite his celebrity status, faces a major fight to keep his seat in the 2012 election season, when he has to run for a full term!

Scott Brown cannot afford to rest on his laurels, as he is definitely an “endangered species” in Massachusetts politics!

The Loss Of The Democrats In The House Of Representatives: 4 “Progressives” And 24 “Blue Dogs”!

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One of the most significant developments of yesterday’s election was the loss of many Democratic House members, most of whom had voted against much of the Obama Administration programs, including the Health Care legislation, in order to save their jobs, but the tactic failed!

Statistics show that only 4 out of 80 “progressives” lost re-election while the so called “Blue Dogs” lost 24 of 53 members!

So the concept that cooperating with Republicans would save their seats failed miserably!

It makes one wonder why anyone would feel that they should cooperate with a party which is totally negative and unwilling to compromise!

It is already clear that the GOP and the talk show hosts on radio and Fox News Channel have no goal, but the defeat of the Obama Presidency, and that they have no desire to solve any problems facing the nation in the next two years!

So a warning to those Democrats that remain in the House, the lowest since 1948: Lick your wounds, and come out fighting over the next two years for what you believe in, as compromising with the opposition was a total disaster for the so called “Blue Dogs”! 🙁

A First In Congress: A Democratic Senate And Republican House Of Representatives!

Ronald 1 Comment

For the first time ever in modern times, the country faces the unusual situation of a Democratic Senate and a Republican House of Representatives!

From 1911-1913, 1931-1933, and 1981-1987, we saw a split Congress, but with a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate!

So the 112th Congress in 2011-2012 will be extremely unusual, with “the people’s branch” being under the control of the GOP, and the Senate in the hands of the Democrats!

What will this mean, as far as progress in dealing with the problems faced by this country internally, as well as overseas?

Unfortunately , the likelihood is total stalemate and gridlock, which is bound to make things worse, rather than better!

So has the anger and frustration of the voters led to creation of the possibility of appropriate dedication to the “people’s business”? The answer is clearly NO! 🙁

The Republican House will try to derail the entire Obama agenda and accomplishments of the past two years, with the Democratic Senate blocking any such repeal, and if by some reason, some Democrats join a united Republican party against the President’s policies, the result will be that President Obama will utilize the veto. If that happens, the Republicans will be unable to override the veto by a two thirds vote!

So again, what have the voters done in their wisdom? They have created a government which is LESS LIKELY to accomplish ANYTHING, and will leave the voters more frustrated and angry in 2012, than they are in 2010!

And who will they blame? The Republican House, the Democratic Senate, or the Democratic President? It should be an interesting scenario, leading to more chaos and anarchy!

So was it smart for the American people to react to difficult times by anger and temper tantrums? NO, and they have almost certainly guaranteed absolutely no improvement in the unemployment rate, in creation of jobs, in the foreclosure crisis on home mortgages, in dealing with the myriad of other domestic problems this country faces! 🙁

Should people make important decisions when they are angry and frustrated? Anyone who is rational knows the answer is clearly NO! 🙁

The Good Side Of The Election Results: Democracy In Action!

Ronald 2 Comments

For those of us who are progressives and liberals, the results of the midterm elections are a time for reflection and reorganization.

It is obvious there is a need for mid course correction by the Obama Administration, and certainly the battle for progressive principles is re-energized by the triumph of the Republican party in taking over the House of Representatives, gaining many seats in the US Senate, and taking over a substantial number of governorships.

But while we assess the results, which the author will do over a period of time in detail, we can all agree that we are fortunate to have the great democracy that we have that allows the American people to register their feelings and change government policies and personnel on a regular basis.

Even if at times the results are seen as disappointing, we can be thankful that we live in a nation where government can be changed without bullets or violence in other forms.

So as we move to the uncertain future, let us all keep a sense of sobriety and balance as the challenges we all face present themselves. And the fight for social justice will continue no matter how much opposition may now exist to the progressive agenda!

Projections On The Senate Races Of 2010: 16 New Senators, Two Seat Gain By GOP, And Only Three Tea Party Victories!

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Here it is, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2010, and time for final judgments on what is likely to happen tomorrow in the 37 Senate races. The author yesterday projected on the House of Representatives and the Governorships, with prediction of the loss of 33 seats by the Democrats in the Senate, and the loss of four seats in the Governorships, leading to a House balance of 224-211 Democratic in the House and 30 GOP Governors, 19 Democratic Governors, and one Independent (formerly Republican) in Rhode Island.

So here goes on the Senate races!

Safe Democratic Seats (6)

Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Chuck Schumer of New York
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Ron Wyden of Oregon
Patrick Leahy of Vermont

Safe Republican Seats (12)

Richard Shelby of Alabama
John McCain of Arizona
Johnny Isakson of Georgia
Mike Crapo of Idaho
Chuck Grassley of Iowa
Jerry Moran of Kansas
David Vitter of Louisiana
John Hoeven of North Dakota, takeover of Democratic seat from retiring Senator Byron Dorgan
Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
Jim DeMint of South Carolina
John Thune of South Dakota
Mike Lee of Utah

Contested Seats (19)

Alaska–Senator Lisa Murkowski (Write In) vs Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams–possibly the most difficult race to judge, with Murkowski having a real chance to win as a Write In, particularly with the blunders and lessening appeal of Joe Miller, and with Scott McAdams having a good chance to win with only high 30s percent of the vote. My bet is that McAdams wins the seat, a gain for the Democrats!

Arkansas–Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) vs Congressman John Boozman (R)–seems like a lost cause for the Democrats, so a Boozman win is a gain for the GOP!

Indiana–former Republican Senator Dan Coats against Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth for seat of Democrat Evan Bayh, who is retiring. Coats has the advantage, so another Republican gain is likely!

California–Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer against Carly Fiorina (R)–close race but Boxer should win seat and keep it for her party!

Colorado- Democratic appointed Senator Michael Bennet against Republican Ken Buck, a Tea Party favorite. Extremely close, but Bennet likely to keep seat for the Democrats!

Delaware–Democrat Chris Coons against Republican Christine O’Donnell for seat long held by Joe Biden, with Coons sure to win seat and keep it Democratic. This would be another loss for the Tea Party Movement!

Florida–Republican Marco Rubio against Indepedent Governor Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek, one of the toughest races to prognosticate, but at this point, Marco Rubio has to be favored, with the seat staying Republican!

Illinois–Democrat Alexi Giannoulias against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk for Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Extremely close, but Giannoulias seen as likely to keep seat Democratic!

Kentucky–extremely hotly contested seat, with libertarian and Tea Party favorite and Republican nominee Rand Paul likely to beat state Attorney General Jack Conway, and keep seat Republican!

Missouri–Republican Congressman Roy Blunt likely to defeat Robin Carnahan, part of a famous dynasty, although Blunt’s son was also Governor of the state as was Carnahan’s father!

Nevada–most bitter race with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid always a survivor and likely to pull out a squeaker over Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle and keep seat Democratic!

New Hampshire–a Republican seat that will stay that way with Kelly Ayotte defeating Congressman Paul Hodes!

North Carolina–Republican Senator Richard Burr favored over Democrat Elaine Marshall!

Ohio–Republican Rob Portman favored to win over Democrat Lee Fisher!

Pennsylvania–Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak will win very tough race against former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey!

West Virginia–seat will stay Democratic with Governor Joe Manchin over Tea Party Favorite John Raese!

Wisconsin–very tough race for Russ Feingold and not expected to win, but somehow, the author expects a miracle victory in extremely close race over Ron Johnson, keeping the seat Democratic!

Connecticut–Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will defeat Linda McMahon, GOP and Tea Party favorite in close race!

Washington–Senator Patty Murray will win close race against Republican Dino Rossi!

So what will be the balance, which is now 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two independents (Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders)?

55 Democrats, 43 Republicans, and two independents!

GOP Gains–John Hoeven, North Dakota; Dan Coats, Indiana; John Boozman, Arkansas

Democratic Gains–Scott McAdams, Alaska

New Republicans in Republican seats–Jerry Moran, Kansas; Mike Lee, Utah; Marco Rubio, Florida; Rand Paul, Kentucky; Roy Blunt, Missouri; Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire; Rob Portman, Ohio.

New Democrats in Democratic Seats–Chris Coons, Delaware; Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois; Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania; Joe Manchin, West Virginia; Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut.

So, that would mean a total of 16 new Senators, a high amount, with 10 Republicans and 6 Democrats!

But how many of the Republicans would be Tea Party favorites?
Only 3–Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul, so not much of a victory by this right wing extremist movement, but enough to be annoying, imagining particularly Rand Paul gracing the Senate for at least six years! 🙁

And how many Tea Party favorites would have lost? Joe Miller, Linda McMahon, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Pat Toomey, Christine O’Donnell, John Raese, Ron Johnson–a total of 8 out of 11 possibilities, so not a bad result for those who are believers in progressive change!

The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!

What major states will the Democrats win?

New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet

Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:

Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire

If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:

Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes

Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:

Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell

These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:

Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!

The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!

The House Of Representatives: How Many Seats Will The Republicans Gain?

Ronald 1 Comment

It is time to start assessing and prognosticating how the election results will play out this coming Tuesday!

It will likely take a few days to be sure of the final results in all 435 races for the House of Representatives.

As the author sees it, there is no question that the opposition party will win seats, as that is traditional in a midterm election.

The question is whether the Republicans will be able to gain a net total of 39 seats, with the expectation that the Democrats will win 4-6 Republican held seats, which effectively means that the GOP will have to gain 43-45 seats.

Predictions are between the low 30s and the very high number of 60-70 seats if there is a total collapse of the Democrats on Election Day.

The belief of the author is that, after all the votes are in, the Republicans will gain a net total of 33 seats, six short of a majority, meaning a House of Representatives with 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans!

Of course, with such a small margin, it is always possible, after the fact, that six or seven Democratic survivors who are more moderate to conservative could switch over to the Republican party, and have an effect on organization of the House in January!

So, imagine a Democratic held House by a small margin where a few Democrats votes to back a Republican Speaker of the House!

So will Nancy Pelosi be Speaker of the House in a closely divided House, or will she bow out and even possibly resign from her seat?

The prediction is that to manage to keep the small Democratic majority, she will resign and be replaced by her deputy, seen as somewhat more moderate, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland!

And should the GOP gain enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives, will John Boehner become Speaker of the House? Don’t bet on it, as one must watch the “Young Guns”, led by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, and Paul Ryan, who are overly ambitious and much more aggressive, and planning for future leadership in the House. So if Boehner ends up as the Speaker, he will know he has these younger members sniping at his heels, ready to undermine him if he does not tow to their line!

So in summary, neither Nancy Pelosi nor John Boehner will have an easy time if either is the potential Speaker of the House in the 112th Congress!

It is more likely that Steny Hoyer or Eric Cantor will be the ultimate beneficiary of these congressional elections two days from now!

The Importance Of The Cell Phone Vote In Tuesday’s Elections!

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With so many races so evenly split, according to polls, attention must be drawn to the cell phone vote, which is NOT measured by polling companies, which call people only on land line phones!

With the growing number of citizens who do not have a land line phone, and with so many of these people being young and often less affluent, the potential for mistakes in the polls is enormous!

Races that seem settled may not be over; evenly competitive races could be more one sided; and the appeal of President Obama and others that the coalition of people who elected him in 2008 should get out there and save the reforms that have been brought about, could indeed lead to major upsets in the polls that might be memorable!

The election is still coming, and everyone should be voting, as it can have an historic impact on the future, or be a detriment to our recovery from the economic recession caused by Republican party policies, and “sweetheart” deals with the major banks, insurance companies, and other corporations!

The Florida Senate Race:Voting For Kendrick Meek A Lost Cause!

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Congressman Kendrick Meek of Miami has been a good public servant to his congressional district, but his Senate campaign is a hopeless exercise in futility!

There have been reports that former President Bill Clinton, a good friend of Meek, and a vigorous campaigner for Meek in the past month, has been urging him to withdraw from the Senate contest in Florida, due to his low poll ratings, and the real danger that Marco Rubio, who represents the extreme right wing of the Republican and Tea Party Movement, seems about ready to win the Senate seat next Tuesday.

One can be a party loyalist, but one also needs to be a party realist, and even at this late date, Kendrick Meek should realize the handwriting on the wall, and withdraw from the race, and endorse Governor Charlie Crist, who is seen as very liikely to caucus with the Democrats if he was fortunate enough to win the Senate seat.

Crist has already admitted that it would be difficult to caucus with the Republican party which has trashed him so badly, and Crist has shown as Governor that he has courage and a willingness to reconsider some of his more conservative views. This should be seen as a sign of maturity and growth, not as a cynical political move!

All Democrats and progressives in Florida, whether or not Meek withdraws, should face reality and cast their ballot for Charlie Crist as the best choice for our new Senator, and pray that Marco Rubio, with his right wing agenda, is overcome by Crist, despite the pessimistic results of public opinion polls!