Joe Biden

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

“Wild Cards” To The Extreme: Jerry Brown And Howard Dean Presidential Candidacies?

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We are entering 2014 in ten days, and yet, we are going back to the past, the extreme past, in fact, when we learn that California Governor Jerry Brown and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean are considering running for President in 2016.

Jerry Brown is not just a “wild card”, but also he is the “wildest card” of all, having run for President three times in the past 40 years, and being age 78 in 2016. Brown was Governor of California for two terms from 1975-1983, and after being Attorney General and Oakland Mayor, came back as Governor in 2011, making him the youngest and oldest Governor in California history.

Brown ran in 1976 against Jimmy Carter in the primaries and caucuses, and then challenged the reelection campaign of Carter, along with Ted Kennedy, in 1980. Then, he ran in the 1992 campaign against the ultimate winner, Bill Clinton, and bad blood was spilled between the two men. Now, if Brown ran, he would be challenging Hillary Clinton, stirring up again the bad blood that developed 22 years ago.

Brown has always been a gadfly, an annoyance, and both Southern Democratic Presidents elected in the past 40 years saw him as an annoying “mosquito”, as he was seen as weird and flaky by many, and is still seen as that in his old age by many observers.

Howard Dean was Governor of Vermont from 1991-2003, and was the frontrunner for awhile in the 2004 Presidential campaign, but collapsed quickly and made a fool of himself by his shrieks after the Iowa Caucuses, and John Kerry went on to become the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2004, losing to George W. Bush. Dean has been a commentator on public affairs, and a left wing critic of Barack Obama, but at age 68 in 2016, could be part of the race again, although the odds are heavy that he will not get very far in his challenge to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and any other Democrats who might decide to run, including former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who has the virtue of being a “new face” in the race, and a lot younger than either Brown or Dean.

Brown particularly, and even Dean, could be seen as being almost like Harold Stassen was in the Republican Party, politicians who have had their moment in the sun, but fail to realize that the time has passed on them, and that we are not about to nominate a 78 year old “has been”, or even a 68 year old “wannabe”!

The Democratic Presidential Race Has Begun With Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer Comments!

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Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has fired the first shots of the Democratic Presidential race, making us realize that the concept that, somehow, Hillary Clinton would win the nomination without challenge, and by default, is a dream that is not going to happen.

Schweitzer, who served two successful terms as Governor of the fourth largest state in land area, but eighth smallest in population, gained a reputation as a western populist, and has been critical of “corporatists”, which in his mind include Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who are too cozy with Wall Street, and have not promoted the idea of pursuing indictment of Wall Street leaders for the Great Recession of 2008.

This is one issue on which many liberals and progressives have had trouble with President Obama, who relied on Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner and other icons of Wall Street, in making his economic policies.

So the left of the Democratic Party, including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, and Schweitzer, among others, have been critical, and while Warren has said she is not running for President, and Sanders says only that he is considering it, Schweitzer has been out front in criticism on economic matters.

Additionally, Schweitzer has thrown a shot across the bow at Hillary Clinton and other US Senators who supported the Iraq War intervention, which he made clear he thought was a major mistake.

So without formally announcing, Schweitzer has hinted strongly that he will enter the race, if nothing else than for the reason that, even assuming Hillary has the edge and might be the nominee of the Democratic Party, that competition is good, and that it would make Clinton a better candidate, than one who is treated with kid gloves and is not ready to fight for the nomination and the Presidency in full combat gear.

Right now, however, the odds that Schweitzer, or anyone else, other than maybe Vice President Joe Biden, can stop Hillary Clinton from being the nominee of the Democratic Party, is highly speculative, but it makes the upcoming primaries and caucuses two years from now a lot more interesting and exciting than it might have been.

So, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, welcome to the fray!

Proper Move For Obama, Mrs. Obama, And Biden To Boycott Sochi Winter Olympics!

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It is the proper moral and strategic move for President Obama, Michelle Obama, and Vice President Joe Biden to boycott personal attendance at the Sochi, Russia Winter Olympics in February.

The move of the Russian authorities to deny basic rights to their gay population is an outrage which endangers gays individually and in families, and it is the new civil rights movement, and the United Stares rightfully must do everything required to take the proper stand on this violation of human rights.

The abuse of gays and lesbians goes on in many nations, but America must not sit on the sidelines, as it did for a long time on the issue of race, and as it did on the issue of anti semitism, which led to the Holocaust of World War II.

Just as we must speak up on the rights of women, labor, the elderly, children, and the poor, we must not allow any government or religion to think they can win the day as we ignore their violations of basic human rights.

If we only had the ability to decide not to compete in the Olympics as a protest, but Obama has decided that it would penalize athletes, both straight and gay, if we did what Jimmy Carter did regarding the Moscow Olympics in 1980, which was boycotted by the US over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

So instead, the official delegation to the Sochi Olympics will include well known gay athletes as the response to the abuses of human rights by Vladamir Putin. And if it worsens the relationship between Russia and the United States, so be it, as Russia is backing the mass slaughter in Syria, another outrage that we must oppose vehemently and with vigor!

Let us hope that gay athletes win a lot of the medals at the Sochi Winter Olympics, as that would be the ultimate triumph!

Des Moines Register Poll On Presidential Race Of 2016

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The Des Moines Register, the leading newspaper in Iowa, has started to poll on who is favored in the Iowa Caucuses, the first vote of a presidential election year, always held in January, which can catapult a candidate all the way to the Presidency, as it did for Barack Obama on January 3, 2008.

Of course, polling this early is no real indicator of what will happen in two years, and in fact, being an early leader is a hex, and usually means that someone else will end up winning the Iowa Caucuses and have the edge to be the Presidential nominee of a political party.

But, if for nothing other than political discussion and debate, the poll shows Hillary Clinton in the lead, with only Joe Biden being competitive with her in any fashion. The other names listed, really “dark horses”, are Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and, surprising to some, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, both of whom have shown interest in running, with Schweitzer being much more open about it.

On the Republican side, five have a positive rating of more than 50 percent, including in order, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (VP running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (now a Fox News talk show host), Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and tied for fifth, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Under 50 percent are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

It is interesting that the front runners are people who have lost their last race, while the also rans are newer people, many of whom have an extremist image, although really, all of the ten listed are extremists on the right, with the exception of Christie and Bush.

And Hillary Clinton has enough support for now that she would seemingly have an edge over any and all Republicans, and remember that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice in a state that, despite its strong right wing evangelical image, votes Democratic for President in recent elections, and is likely to do the same in 2016, whether it is Hillary or Joe Biden or some newer candidate for the Democrats.

The Field Is Opening For Hillary Clinton, As Other Democrats Seem To Step Aside

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It seems now more than ever that the Democratic Party is stepping aside for Hillary Clinton to be its nominee.

It may be that it simply seems like a “fait accompli”, an inevitable situation that makes possible rivals unwilling to enter the field, hesitant to challenge her.

The point is that Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo have made it clear that they are not in the field, unwilling to promote any action that indicates a challenge to the giant shadow of the former Secretary of State, Senator, and First Lady.

No discussion is going on for anyone else, other than possibly Joe Biden and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, and it is really possible at the end that we will have the first uncontested nomination ever seen in modern American history, almost as if Hillary Clinton is President running unopposed for a second term in the White House, rather than as an outsider seeking the office of the Presidency.

Since Hillary resided in the White House for eight years, it is a scenario unseen in American history, and would strengthen her as the Republican Party, with its nightmarish group of candidates, fights it out on the far right, alienating the great center of the American population.

CNN Poll: Christie Ahead Of Paul Ryan For GOP; Clinton And Biden For Democrats

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A CNN poll indicates that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seven points ahead of Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, for the Presidential race in 2016; and with Hillary Clinton far ahead of Joe Biden, but Biden far ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field for 2016.

But one must be aware that this far out, to assume that Christie and Clinton will be the nominees, or that Ryan and Biden will be the backup nominees, is not a good bet at all.

Face the facts: Christie’s name has been in the news because of his landslide victory in New Jersey in an off year election, where his story was the major one to report. Ryan, having been the VP nominee, is well known. Hillary Clinton has been seen as a public figure constantly, most recently as Secretary of State, and Joe Biden has been a very active Vice President.

There is a very good chance that someone else will be the nominee in the GOP, while less likely for the Democrats, where Hillary and Joe seem to have a lead that is unlikely to be surpassed, particularly for Hillary over Joe.

But one only has to look at the surprises of history, including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to know that anything is possible in a Presidential race this far out from the actual election year.

A Very Dangerous Time: The Iran Nuclear Deal

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One cannot easily decide if the announcement of the Iran nuclear deal last night is a moment to celebrate or to condemn. The US, Great Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany came to an agreement which is being much questioned by many diplomatic observers.

The history of Iran’s dealings with the West makes one pause and wonder how anyone can trust the fundamentalist Islamic regime,

This is not an issue of the Iranian people, but rather the Iranian government.

With Israel and the Arab nations (including Saudi Arabia) for once in agreement, all of them alarmed at the growing influence of Iran in Syria, and their engagement with terrorist networks, the tendency would be to see any agreement with the Islamic regime as a ploy, and that we will soon face the reality that Iran is a nuclear power.

But if diplomacy does not work, then the likelihood of warfare in the Middle East beckons, and most Americans do not want our nation involved in another war.

The threat to the survival of Israel is a very worrisome aspect of all this, but it is more than that.

It is also an issue that Iran presents a threat to world peace unmatched since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 51 years ago.

The question is whether Barack Obama, John Kerry, Chuck Hagel, Joe Biden et al know what they are doing, and whether in the future, we will look back on this as another “Munich”, when Great Britain and France made an ill fated deal with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy over the future of Czechoslovakia in the fall of 1938, which did not bring peace, but instead, within a short time, the outbreak of World War II.

So the author has a very mixed feeling, and a sense of foreboding, that the future is likely to be very gloomy, and lead to a dangerous, widespread war.

The Pluses And Minuses Of A Bernie Sanders Independent Presidential Candidacy

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Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is a true national treasure, an independent Socialist, longest serving Independent member of Congress in American history, who allies with the Democratic Party but is not a member of the party.

Sanders, originally Mayor of Burlington, Vermont, served as the only House member from his state for 16 years, from 1991-2007, and is now in his second term in the US Senate.

He has now devoted 23 years to service for his state and the nation, and even if one does not agree with his stands on issues, no sane person sees him as a threat simply because he is a “socialist”.

Sanders has now suggested that he might run as an Independent candidate for President in 2016 if no one else in the Democratic Party is willing to promote what he believes in, suggesting Senator Elizabeth Warren as a potential nominee that he could support.

Sanders makes it clear that someone has to run on the issues of Wall Street control, the problem of growing poverty affecting the middle class, the crisis of global warming, and the need to protect Social Security and Medicare, all issues he has been in the forefront on, more than just about anyone else.

The danger of a potential independent candidacy by Sanders, which he admits is mostly unlikely, is that it would split the Democratic vote and help a right wing Republican to win the White House.

That was the effect of Ralph Nader in the Presidential Election of 2000, and the last thing we need is a Republican who will set progress backward ever further.

So while Bernie Sanders is appealing, it is hoped he will decide, ultimately, not to run, and if Elizabeth Warren runs and loses, that she will unite behind whoever is the Democratic nominee, even if seen as a comparative moderate, such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner.

Disllusionment With Washington Opens Up Possibility Of State Governors Again Having Advantage For Presidential Race!

Ronald 3 Comments

Much of the time in American history, there has been disillusionment with the Washington DC establishment, and a desire to have an “outsider” being our President.

Only three Presidents of the past century were elected directly from the Senate—Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama—while a total of six Governors or former Governors were elected to the Presidency—Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush. Additionally, former Governors who were Vice President first, and succeeded during the term—Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge–were also elected to a full term.

So the present anger at Washington and everything it represents opens up new opportunities for sitting or former Governors in both parties, such as follows:

Democrats—Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts

Republicans-Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jeb Bush of Florida, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Susana Martinez of New Mexico

Having said this, one still has to wonder if the Democratic Governors can overcome Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.

And one has to wonder if the Republican Governors can overcome Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and others.