Jeb Bush

The Long List Of Republican Presidential Dropouts: Why If 2012 Is Such A Great Year For The GOP?

Ronald 1 Comment

Common belief is that 2012 will see the defeat of President Barack Obama, and recent polls seem to indicate such, except, of course, for the fact that polls in the summer and fall of the year BEFORE the national elections are notoriously misleading!

But with such predictions and prognostications, why is it that a long list of Republicans, some of them very attractive possibilities, have decided NOT to seek the Presidency?

First the list of candidates in no special order:

Jeb Bush
Haley Barbour
John Bolton
Mitch Daniels
Jim DeMint
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Mike Pence
David Petraeus
Paul Ryan
John Thune
Donald Trump
Rudy Guiliani
Sarah Palin
Chris Christie

That is a list of FIFTEEN people, some of them very appealing in different ways, who have decided NOT to run!

But why?

1. It is an arduous chore, costly, dominating, stressful to run for President, and becomes all encompassing to the candidate and his or her family.
2. It requires tremendous financial and organizational support to make a serious run for President, not easily achieved.
3. It requires a “thick skin” with the strong criticisms and investigations of one’s record, of everything ever said or done, that is automatic when one runs for President.
4. It requires a candidate to be knowledgeable, informed, and to have good debate skills against potential opponents.
5. It is required that a candidate have the “fire in the belly” that he or she is meant to run, and willingness to sacrifice his or her life for a year or more.

With all of the above, one other point should be made in conclusion: The candidate has to believe that Barack Obama can be defeated in 2012, or else it is better to wait to 2016!

The author would contend that many on this list, maybe all of them, see the chore of dislodging Barack Obama from the Presidency to be a very difficult job, no matter what is uttered publicly!

The President will have a billion dollar campaign fund; a record of major accomplishments rivaling the Great Society of Lyndon B. Johnson domestically, certainly the most since the first term of Richard Nixon, the most in FORTY YEARS, that he can be proud of; PLUS exceptional achievements in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and general respect around the world! His record on defense and foreign policy is outstanding, with his ONLY major failure being the economy, one that he inherited and has been unable to overcome due to the total intransigence of the opposition party, which now controls the House of Representatives, and is doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to create jobs, build infrastructure, promote education and innovation, and will go down as the worst Congress in decades!

Barack Obama will be able to call them the “do nothing” Congress as Harry Truman did when he ran for election in 1948. The difference is that even the GOP Congress of 1947-1948, the 80th Congress, DID support the President on foreign policy initiatives, while the Republicans today ignore or dismiss accomplishments of the President in that area! So this is actually a far worse Congress, the 112th Congress, than the 80th Congress was!

So the ultimate conclusion is that the Republicans who decided not to run assume that Obama will win, and are holding their future to 2016, when it is likely MANY of the above will be running for President in a year they project as a year when the incumbent President will NOT be able to run, an open year which maximizes their opportunities for the White House!

Finally, the reception that those candidates for President who are running are receiving is NOT a good sign for any of them, that they will somehow unite the Republican Party and defeat Barack Obama in 2012! There is great discontent over the choices, and that is the reason why there has been a clamor, unsuccessful, to get others in the race. And of course, the Tea Party Movement is also destroying any chance for GOP unity, so if the Republicans want a future, they must divorce the Tea Party Movement after what will be a likely debacle in 2012, if they wish to succeed Barack Obama in the White House in the Presidential Election Of 2016!

The Republicans, Barack Obama, And The 2016, NOT 2012, Presidential Election!

Ronald 1 Comment

All of America is focused on the 2012 Presidential Election, as the Republicans compete over who should oppose President Barack Obama for re-election.

There are a lot of people who seem to think that Barack Obama will be easy to defeat, because of the high unemployment rate, which will be the highest for a President running for re-election since the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt.

But these are not ordinary times, and the thought that Barack Obama is going down the road of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush is a false premise!

Remember that Ford, Carter and Bush I all had strong primary challenges, with Ford having to deal with Ronald Reagan, Carter with Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and Bush I with Pat Buchanan in the primaries and Ross Perot in the general election.

Also remember that none of those three Presidents had a record of domestic accomplishments that Barack Obama has!

Also remember that none of those three had the charisma or oratorical ability of Barack Obama!

Also realize that Obama has foreign policy accomplishments in the fight against terrorism, unmatched by any of those three, except briefly with the Gulf War under George H. W. Bush!

Although there are those competing for the Presidency in the Republican Party, actually, on the sidelines, there are others who desire the job, but either are not ready yet to run for the office, or are smart enough to realize that the odds of ultimately defeating Obama are long, so better to wait to 2016, when Obama would be finishing his two terms of office, if he is reelected.

It is a gamble, of course, to sit back and wait, but likely a good gamble, and if it is an open Presidential election, the odds of success for the Republicans grows by 2016.

So who is sitting on the sidelines, salivating for the Presidency, and secretly hoping no Republican is elected in 2012?

In no special order, here is a list of ambitious Republicans:

1. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
2. Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin
3. Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida
4. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
5.Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts
6. Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia
7. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin
8. Governor Rick Scott of Florida
9. Governor John Kasich of Ohio
10.Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina

Notice particularly THREE Floridians who have ambitions–Bush, Rubio and Scott, and realize the fact that Florida will have 29 electoral votes, the fourth largest number, as Florida is the fourth largest state.

So, particularly among Republicans in Florida, there are those who secretly hope that 2016 will be an open election, and are willing to sit back and wait for just that reason!

George W. Bush To Rick Perry: The Potential Further Deterioration Of The American Presidency In The Election Of 2012!

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Much has been written about the faults and shortcomings of the George W. Bush Presidency, but we are now faced with another Texas Governor who could, if elected, make us wish for the “good old days” of Bush 43, and certainly for the “very good old days” of Bush 41, and even to wish for a “Bush 45 (Jeb Bush)”!

The Bush family and their supporters are clearly vigorously opposed to a President Rick Perry. Jeb Bush has been indirectly critical of the GOP Presidential field, saying instead of just attacking President Obama, real alternatives to his policies are needed, a swipe at Rick Perry. His son, Jeb Bush, Jr. has formally endorsed Jon Huntsman, and Huntsman met with the elder President Bush at his home in Kennebunkport, Maine, before entering the race. Bad blood has existed between the second President Bush and Perry, who was his Lieutenant Governor and succeeded him when Bush became President in 2001. Karl Rove, adviser to the second Bush, has been vehemently against Perry, as he and the Bush family were when Perry ran in the 2010 GOP primary for another term against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.

George W. Bush promoted “compassionate conservatism”, and while that is often ridiculed, in fact, for all its faults, Bush’s administration DID promote a prescription drug plan for seniors, although it was not funded by taxes and has added to the national debt. Bush also was not, and his family are not, supporters of the Tea Party movement, which in many ways, are a reaction against steps taken by Bush in the economic crisis of 2008–2009.

Now we have Rick Perry, who has threatened Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve Board, an appointee of Bush. He has had the gall to say Barack Obama does not love America, even though Obama’s record of going after terrorists successfully far outdoes the eight years of Bush and Dick Cheney. Perry has also attacked Social Security, calling it a Ponzi scheme, and is trying to stir younger Americans to rise up against paying the Social Security tax, which effect would be to bring the whole system down and deny senior citizens the safety net that has worked well for 75 years, and is in good shape, even without any modification, for 25 more years, and with some tinkering, will be just fine for the long run!

Under Perry, the number of poor Texans, growth in minimum wage jobs, decline of educational funds and standards, and percentages of people with no health care coverage, has magnified, while under Bush, many of the statistics showed much more positive results. And one cannot just say that the Great Recession beginning in 2008 caused these downturns, as they were occurring all along during the past ten and a half years of Perry’s Governorship!

Perry has also had more people executed, including those on which there was doubt, than under Bush, and he is proud of this, as if that is an accomplishment! And the people around Perry make Bush’s “people” look brilliant by comparison!

The only virtue Perry would bring to the White House would be to make us “appreciate” George W. Bush for the first time, as the further deterioration of the Presidency would be in full swing!

Jeb Bush’s Advice To Republican Presidential Candidates: Stop Being So Negative About Obama And Offer Positive Alternatives Instead!

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Jeb Bush, former Republican Governor of Florida, brother of former President George W. Bush, and son of former President George H.W. Bush, was on Fox News Channel yesterday, offering good advice to the Republican Presidential field: stop being so negative about Barack Obama, blaming him for everything, much of which is not his doing!

In other words, Bush said it is fine to criticize Obama on making the economic conditions worse, but do not use ridiculous arguments or attacks on Obama. Or as former Congressman Harold Ford, Democrat of Tennessee, said on MSNBC this morning, it is not appropriate to blame Obama for your coffee spilling or your children being sick!

Unfortunately, there has been too much reckless criticism of Obama since Day One, and all it has done is help make the opposition party look preposterous and lacking in substance. As Bush said, the candidates must offer POSITIVE alternatives and a real program of goals if they wish to be able to compete with Obama in the Presidential Election of 2012!

Without naming names, it seems obvious that Jeb Bush is sending the message of the Bush family that they are not happy with Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, not enthused about Mitt Romney, and most supportive of Jon Huntsman. This interview with Jeb Bush comes after his younger son, Jeb Jr, endorsed Huntsman.

And although he makes clear that he is not running for President himself, it still seems to many that Jeb Bush MIGHT enter the race if Huntsman cannot gain support, and if Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann seem likely to co-opt the race, since the Bushes clearly believe that either of them would be a disaster for the Republican Party!

As many have said, if Jeb did not have the last name of Bush, he probably would already have been running!

So his interview with Fox only adds more to the cauldron of Republican Presidential politics!

Karl Rove’s Warning To The Republicans: The Bushes Speaking Out Against Rick Perry!

Ronald 1 Comment

Karl Rove, the mastermind behind the election successes of George W. Bush, has issued a warning against the right wing extremism emerging in the Republican Party. The danger, he warns, is that the party will be seen as extremist, and lose the opportunity to win the White House away from Barack Obama.

What does this warning really indicate? It is that the Bush Family, father George Number 41 , as well as son George Number 43, and likely Jeb Bush and everyone else in the extended family, is terrified at Rick Perry, and to a lesser extent, Michele Bachmann, as being destructive of party success!

Already, Jeb Bush, Jr, second son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, has announced his support of Jon Huntsman, a minor issue, but a sign of the concern within the Bush family and among Establishment Republicans at the threat of Tea Party activists destroying the party for 2012!

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Jeb Bush MIGHT enter the race, if it seems that Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman cannot stop Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, in order to save the party’s future.

So behind the scenes, much is going on that we will be learning about over time, depending on events!

The Internal Struggle In The Republican Party: Minnesota Vs. Mormonism!

Ronald Leave a comment

With the announcement today that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels will not run for the Republican Presidential nomination, the race seems more than ever to be one of FOUR who are likely to dominate vote getting in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the early primary and caucus states next winter!

As one looks at the field, it seems clear that Newt Gingrich has self destructed in his first week as an official candidate. Rick Santorum seems unlikely to take off as a candidate, based on his own past crazy statements and walloping defeat for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006. Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and even Ron Paul, will make noise, but are unlikely to poll many actual votes.

So unless someone such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush suddenly enters the race belatedly, there seem to be four major contenders for actual popular vote support in the primaries and the caucuses early on–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and surprisingly, Michele Bachmann!

Bachmann is the favorite of the Tea Party people, more even than Ron Paul, who is seen as too old and flaky to be much of a vote getter. Even though she is outrageous in her statements and actions, Bachmann is likely to have a serious following in Iowa at the least, and could affect who of the other candidates benefits by her candidacy.

Bachmann, being from Minnesota, and therefore from the Midwest, poses a real challenge to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has been very careful to avoid outrageous statements and actions, and yet is competing for the Tea Party support and for the backing of Midwesterners. Iowa is a crucial state to both, so they are therefore at loggerheads as Bachmann could ruin Pawlenty’s chances. So expect the beginning soon of sustained attacks by each on the other, and increasingly so, as the campaign gets closer to the first vote test in Iowa, which has many evangelical Christians and Tea Party people, and will likely kill off either Bachmann or Pawlenty. So it is the battle of Minnesotan vs. Minnesotan!

But the 2012 race is also of Mormon vs. Mormon, as Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, and seen as a moderate to some extent, is challenging Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, who is also often seen as a moderate. Both are working very hard to wipe such ideas out of voters’ minds, as both oppose health care and support Medicare reform along the lines of the Paul Ryan Budget plan. Both are much more electible on paper, but being Mormons and having the old image of moderation could harm both, and certainly, one will be hurt by the success of the other.

What is likely is that the nomination will come down to Pawlenty vs. one of the two Mormon politicians, with Huntsman being newer and fresher and more interesting a candidate.

So the final struggle is likely to be Pawlenty vs. Huntsman, and it would seem likely that Pawlenty would have the edge, but only if he can overcome the influence of Bachmann with Tea Party faithful.

For the election, Huntsman or even Romney would be a better bet to win than Pawlenty, but the Tea Party influence is such that the bet would be that Pawlenty will be the sacrificial lamb, with the likelihood that Barack Obama would win a major victory, possibly on the level of George H. W. Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988!

The Silly Season Is Here: Republicans Look To Michele Bachmann And Rick Perry? Give Us A Break!

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With the withdrawal of Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour, the implosion of Newt Gingrich, the fake campaign of Donald Trump, and the decision of Mike Pence and John Thune to stay out of the Republican Presidential campaign, the GOP is running scared, that they feel as if they have no roots or substantial possibility of challenging President Barack Obama in 2012.

So, grasping at straws, attention is being paid to Michele Bachmann, the loony Congresswoman from Minnesota, and Rick Perry, the secessionist oriented Governor of Texas, as people to flirt with and encourage to enter the race.

The fact is though, whether Bachmann or Perry enter the race, neither has the slightest chance to win the GOP Presidential nomination. Were either to actually win the nomination, the result would be such a landslide defeat for the Republicans, that it would match the 1964 Barry Goldwater candidacy.

As reiterated constantly by this author, the only reasonable candidates left are Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty, as Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are not going to enter the race by any estimation. When one hears Republicans act as if Obama is an easy challenge to defeat, one has to wonder at the hallucinations going on in GOP circles!

Why Newt Gingrich Is A Horrible Candidate For The Presidency

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Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has faced literal Hell this week from members of his own Republican Party for his MEET THE PRESS interview this past Sunday, where he criticized the Paul Ryan budget plan, including radical changes in Medicare, and called for the individual mandate, exactly what he believed in the 1990s, and which Barack Obama made part of his Health Care reform plans last year.

His chances to be the nominee of his party for the Presidency seem to have been destroyed by his statements, but actually there are better, more substantive reasons for him to be passed by for the Presidential nomination.

1. Gingrich is a “loose cannon”, who has no discipline and will say anything he thinks of immediately after thinking about it! As a result, he is often seen as a “firebomb thrower”, and that is no recommendation for the nation’s highest office.

2. Gingrich has a horrible moral record, in relation to the cheating he committed on TWO WIVES, and being married three times. He was condemning Bill Clinton while he was engaged in extramarital relations himself during the impeachment debacle of 1998-1999.

3. The fact that it has been discovered that he owes back taxes and is very loose with money and credit makes one state that is not a credential we want in a future President.

4. Gingrich has few friends in politics, even in his own party, with basically no one coming to his defense. He is seen as a supreme egotist, who has no loyalty to anything but his own aggrandizement and glory. He would be involved in constant conflict with his own party, as well as the Democrats, because he would be stubborn and inflexible.

5. In foreign policy, he would cause international crises and “bad blood”, as he does not have an ounce of diplomacy in his approach to those who disagree with him.

6. It is difficult to say that Gingrich has any basic principles or beliefs, as he has so often changed his views to fit the moment, and in any case, he is certainly not, by his historical record, a small national government man, which is the view of the present Republican Party and the Tea Party Movement.

7. Being a professor in his past, being an “ideas man” and an intellectual, may be seen by some as positives, but in the modern GOP, those are all disadvantages and turnoffs. He often seems to be lecturing, rather than speaking to his audiences.

So it is clear that the chances of Newt Gingrich being the Presidential nominee and even the winner of the Oval Office are as likely as the chances of Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.

It still comes down to the reality that the next Republican nominee is almost certainly going to be from Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, or Tim Pawlenty, with Pawlenty, despite his low public opinion ratings, seen as having the fewest negatives of the three.

And don’t expect Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Jeb Bush of Florida, Rick Perry of Texas, and Chris Christie of New Jersey to enter the race, one which looks more likely to be that of a losing cause for 2012!

The Crisis Within The Republican Party For 2012!

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The Republican Party, once a proud party, is in total disarray, as all the attention is grabbed by what many call the “joke” candidates who have no chance to win, and yet are promoting a terrible image for the party, so much so, that the American people are totally unimpressed!

And yet, there is growing discontent with President Obama, due to the budget crisis, the stubbornly high unemployment, and the soaring gasoline prices, but there is no valid alternative!

At this point, there could be a landslide effect toward Obama, similar to what was the situation when Lyndon Johnson walloped Senator Barry Goldwater in the 1964 election, and in fact, no candidate gains 20 percent support in the latest polls, similar to what Goldwater had 47 years ago!

The control of religious conservatives and Tea Party activists are entrapping all reasonable, rational thought, and holding hostage any realistic, mainstream candidates from emerging!

Face the facts! The following so called “candidates” are disasters in the making in any order: Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Haley Barbour, and any others who come out of the woodwork to claim they wish to run!

The “birther” issue and the race issue and the gay issue have destroyed all of the above from serious consideration by anyone with intelligence!

The only “serious” candidates, but lacking excitement for now, are Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and really stretching it, Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush, who have evinced no interest in running, but would have to be seen as serious and viable were they to announce for President!

Any “bully” Governor, such as Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, or John Kasich, would be counterproductive, as all of them have caused great opposition and controversy!

It is time for Republican leaders to follow former George W. Bush advisor Karl Rove and do everything they can to derail all the loonies, and promote Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Daniels or Bush as the ONLY viable candidates out of a sad group of people who betray the Republican heritage since 1854–the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and yes, even Ronald Reagan!

Florida Recall Of Miami Dade Mayor A Warning To Governor Rick Scott!

Ronald 3 Comments

The shocking, overwhelming vote for recall of Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez should be a warning sign to Governor Rick Scott and others in the state legislature, as well as in Wisconsin and other states, where the elected office holders are acting more like dictators, than servants of the people!

One cannot recall any election or recall where 88 percent of the people voted in unison, an unbelievable landslide of astronomical proportions!

Governor Rick Scott has angered many people with his reckless behavior and disregard for anyone but the Tea Party Movement crowd, that elected him on an agenda of making Florida a “third world nation” in public services!

Already one of the worst states in social services, particularly education and health care, Scott has cut taxes on corporations and property owners while calling for the cutting of education and health care by billions of dollars, and has made it clear that if you don’t agree with him, don’t bother him as he has no interest in listening, and will not answer to the media either!

This man is trying to privatize the state on a massive basis, and he is declaring war on teachers and other public servants, similar to Scott Walker in Wisconsin.

The damage that is being done will make Florida a less desirable place for people to live in and migrate to, and meanwhile, his demand for all public servants to undergo quarterly drug testing will invade privacy rights, and cost large scale financial investments the state cannot afford. One wonders if he has connections with those who would make profits from such testing, and would receive kickbacks, considering his felonious conduct in Medicare scams in the 1990s, for which he only paid major fines, rather than ending up in federal prison, where he should have been today, instead of being Governor of Florida!

If a public worker is shown by performance or behavior to have a problem with drugs or alcohol, then it is proper to test him and hold him or her accountable. But to require all workers to have such a test on a regular basis is bound to be declared unconstitutional, and is an invasion of privacy!

It is amazing how Scott wants to privatize everything, to make government smaller, except when it comes to interference in the private lives of people! Unless there is a problem demonstrating itself at work, it is no one’s business what one does in his or her private time away from work!

Recall of the Governor is essential if Florida is to survive intact for the long term future! Otherwise, the Sunshine State is facing “stormy weather”, which brings to mind, what is the likelihood of Governor Scott reacting appropriately to provide aid were Florida to face a new threat of hurricanes as it dealt with quite well under Governor Jeb Bush in 2004-2005, when the state was hit by eight hurricanes.

The thought that Scott would leave it to private groups, rather than government, in such an emergency, is enough to make one fear any such eventuality. Hopefully, Florida will not be tested by such an emergency!