James Madison

Charisma And The Presidency: The Interesting Views Of Dean Keith Simonton

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Dr . Dean Keith Simonton, Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Davis, has come up with an intriguing discussion of Charisma and the Presidency.

Having done research over a period of years on this topic, Simonton spoke on National Public Radio, and surprised listeners, including the author, by saying that early Presidents would not be considered to have charisma, as many of them hated speaking before large audiences, had a tendency to be shy and nervous in public gatherings, and would have had problems, therefore, being elected in the modern era. This would include George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison.

Only Andrew Jackson would be likely to seen as charismatic in a modern sense in the 19th century, meaning even Abraham Lincoln would not fit the image of being charismatic.

Modern Presidents who Simonton would consider charismatic would include Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. So he would consider only SEVEN Presidents as having had charisma by his definition.

Putting Lyndon B. Johnson on the list is quite surprising, and those not put on the list include Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama, also quite unexpected.

There is much room for thought here, with the definition of charisma itself in dispute, if Lincoln, Wilson and Obama are not judged to make the list, while LBJ is on the list.

Maybe it is because Lincoln, Wilson and Obama are all reserved, introverted types in the minds of psychologists, while Jackson, TR, FDR, JFK, LBJ, Reagan and Clinton are all, clearly, extroverts!

In any case, interesting and fascinating concept to think about and discuss!

Important To Remember: No Wartime President Has Been Defeated For Reelection!

Ronald 25 Comments

An interesting point to remember with 80 days left to the Presidential election, and just two days to August 20, precisely five months to the inauguration!

NEVER has a President in wartime been defeated, including two times when war clouds hovered, but we were not technically at war!

Witness the following:

James Madison, the War of 1812, reelected in 1812
Abraham Lincoln, the Civil War, reelected in 1864
Woodrow Wilson, World War I, not at war but nearing it, reelected in 1916
Franklin D. Roosevelt, World War II, not at war but nearing it, reelected in 1940, and then at war, reelected in 1944.
Lyndon B. Johnson, using the Vietnam War issue through the Gulf of Tonkin, elected in 1964
Richard Nixon, Vietnam War, reelected in 1972
George W. Bush, Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, reelected in 2004

This list does not include James K. Polk, who chose not to run for reelection AFTER the end of the Mexican War in 1848; William McKinley, reelected AFTER the Spanish American War’s end, in 1900; Harry Truman, who chose not to run in 1952 during the Korean War; Lyndon B. Johnson, who chose not to run during the Vietnam War in 1968; and George H. W. Bush, who was triumphant during the Persian Gulf War, but then lost 18 months later for reelection in 1992, due to the bad economy and the candidacy of Ross Perot helping Bill Clinton to win in a three way race.

So the odds of Barack Obama winning reelection with the Afghanistan War raging are excellent!

The Founding Fathers And Religious Intolerance

Ronald 4 Comments

Having spent the past few days touring Presidential homes of the Founding Fathers in Virginia, it becomes ever more clear how they viewed organized religion.

All of the great Founding Fathers were born of the Christian faith, one sect or another, but all were skeptical of organized religion, being very educated and learned about the history of Christianity, which had included mass murder, bloodshed, violence, and holy wars against Islam, and promotion of antisemitism against Jews.

So George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe all were not regular church goers, and in many respects were Deists, having given up on organized religious trappings.

The Adamses, John and John Quincy, also had similar views, as did Benjamin Franklin and Alexander Hamilton.

If they had been here in today’s world, witnessing the bias, prejudice, and hate promoted by SOME Christian groups in the name of Jesus, they would be totally disgusted for sure!

The Summer: Again The Danger Time In International Affairs, Leading To War

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He we are in the heat of summer, and once again, in danger of international war, which has occurred so often in American and world history.

America went to war against Great Britain in June 1812 under President James Madison, in the two and a half year war known as the War Of 1812.

World War I began in August 1914, after the assassination of the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary in late June. America did not enter that war until the spring of 1917, but the outbreak of war in the summer of 1914 presented a challenge to President Woodrow Wilson, nevertheless.

World War II began officially at the beginning of September 1939 after a summer of growing tensions, and although America did not enter the war until December 1941, the outbreak of the war caused a serious crisis of leadership for Franklin D. Roosevelt.

The Korean War began in the last days of June 1950, with President Harry Truman making the fateful decision to commit troops to United Nations forces fighting for the sovereignty of South Korea against North Korea and its Communist allies, the Soviet Union and Communist China.

The Gulf of Tonkin Crisis leading to US bombing of North Vietnam took place in August 1964 under President Lyndon B. Johnson.

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, which led to the Persian Gulf War under President George H. W. Bush in 1991, began in August 1990.

And the attack on September 11, 2001 by Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda occurred technically in a time still part of the official summer season, under President George W. Bush.

Now the ante is going up on possible war between the radical Islamic government of Iran and the Western nations which are imposing an oil embargo and other trade and financial restrictions in reaction to the belief that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. And Iran is threatening missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East; threatening to close the Straits Of Hormuz, which provide the major path for oil shipments around the world, and if closed, would create an energy crisis for the world at large; has talked about destroying Israel, eliminating it off the face of the earth, leading to Israeli plans to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities if nothing is done to stop their development; and has also threatened British and Saudi Arabia interests and other Gulf States facilities in the event of war. The US is upping its troops and ships in the area, and tensions are growing, creating a test of leadership for President Barack Obama.

Barbara Tuchman, the famous historian, wrote a book called THE GUNS OF AUGUST about the outbreak of World War I.

Right now, as the earth heats up into the warmest summer on record, we can say the heat of possible war is also heating up, sadly!

The Wartime Presidency: One Out Of Every Three Presidents!

Ronald 1 Comment

America has had 43 Presidents, and a total of 14, or one third, have been wartime Presidents.

Some inherited wars, as Theodore Roosevelt and the Filipino Insurrection of 1899-1902; Harry Truman and World War II; Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Korean War; Richard Nixon and the Vietnam War; and Barack Obama and the Iraq War and Afghanistan War.

Others took us to war, believing it was necessary and unavoidable, including James Madison and the War of 1812; James K. Polk and the Mexican War; Abraham Lincoln and the Civil War; William McKinley and the Spanish American War; McKinley and the Filipino Insurrection; Woodrow Wilson and World War I; Franklin D. Roosevelt and World War II; Harry Truman and the Korean War; Lyndon B. Johnson and the Vietnam War; George H. W. Bush and the Gulf War; and George W. Bush and the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War.

Of these 14 wartime Presidents, one was a Democratic Republican (James Madison); seven were Republicans (Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower; Richard Nixon, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush); and six were Democrats (James K. Polk, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson, Barack Obama).

The Bicentennial Of The War Of 1812 On Monday

Ronald 4 Comments

Two centuries ago tomorrow, the United States declared war on Great Britain, its first war as a nation, its first declaration of war in American history.

The declaration of war under President James Madison was a bold and unfortunate gesture, as America was ill equipped to fight the greatest naval power in the world, and our former colonial masters.

The war would see the burning of the White House and Capitol Hill in August, 1814, our first internal invasion, followed by the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii on December 7, 1941, and the attack by Al Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York, and the Pentagon in Washington, DC on September 11, 2001.

The war would have its heroes, including Andrew Jackson, who won the major battle of the war at New Orleans, a few weeks after the formal ceasefire, but before knowledge of it was available.

The War of 1812 has been called the Second War for Independence, with America turning inward after the war, and expanding across the continent, and not engaging in war with a foreign power from Europe again until the brief Spanish American War of 1898, and made only a major commitment to overseas warfare a century after the War of 1812, during the last 19 months of World War I.

The War of 1812 has also been called the “Sorry Little War”, since it was not a bright moment for America militarily, and James Madison is regarded as a weak wartime President, despite the greatness of his career otherwise.

While relations between America and its former colonial master would be tense much of the time for the next century until World War I, we would never again fight Great Britain in war, and since World War II in particular, our greatest friend and ally has been Great Britain!

While not a war of significance long term as the Civil War, or the two World Wars, and not a war with territorial gains, as with the Mexican War and the Spanish American War, it is appropriate that we commemorate this bicentennial event in a respectful manner!

The Supreme Court On Trial IF It Destroys Health Care Reform: Creation Of A Constitutional Crisis

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The US Supreme Court is in the midst of a crisis of massive proportions, if it destroys the Obama Health Care reform in June.

It will create a crisis in health care for about 50 million Americans, and affect young adults, senior citizens, and people with pre-existing conditions in a massively negative way.

It will undermine the major effort of the Obama Administration to bring health care into the 21st century, and on the same level as every other democratic nation in the world, many of whom have had national health care for all for decades.

It will also put the Supreme Court as an institution on trial, as it is already perceived as overly partisan, with many of the decisions decided on party line vote, based on which party’s President chose the members of the Court.

It will also make it even more obvious that the election will have the effect of deciding the future direction of the Court, based on which party gains the Presidency and has control of the US Senate. This has always been true, and has been mentioned by this author numerous times on this blog.

This Court could undermine public faith and respect for the institution itself, doing even more damage than the Bush V. Gore case of 2000, and the Citizens United case of 2010.

The Court has been a hot political issue in the past in election years, including:

1800-Thomas Jefferson vs. John Adams, with the power of the Court a key issue, and Adams’ last minute appointment of Chief Justice John Marshall leading, despite opposition of Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe and Andrew Jackson, to a very powerful Supreme Court shaped by Marshall.

1860–The election of Abraham Lincoln, who attacked the Dred Scott decision that stated that a slave owner could take his slave anywhere in the United States, and helping to lead to the secession of the South, and the coming of the Civil War.

1876–An election where the popular vote loser, Rutherford B. Hayes, was chosen by a committee which included five Supreme Court Justices, when no one was able to win the contested electoral votes of three Southern states–Louisiana, South Carolina and Florida.

1912 and 1924–Third party (Progressive Party) candidates Theodore Roosevelt and Robert La Follette, Sr., respectively, proposed limitations on the powers of the Supreme Court .

1936–Franklin D. Roosevelt made the Court an issue because of its constant declaration of New Deal laws as unconstitutional, and tried to “pack” the Court by a proposal to add six new Justices for each one on the Court over the age of 70, an idea soundly defeated in 1937.

1968–Richard Nixon campaigned against the “liberal” Court of Chief Justice Earl Warren, who then had to swear him as President in January 1969, but retired shortly after.

2000–The Supreme Court on a partisan vote stopped the vote count in the state of Florida, thereby awarding George W. Bush the Presidency over Al Gore, with a margin of victory in Florida of 537 votes statewide.

2012 could be another such case of a President confronting a defiant Supreme Court to the will of the majority in Congress and the American people!

Ranking Presidents Affected By Being A One Term Or Two Term President?

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The game of ranking Presidents is a continuous topic among historians, political scientists, journalists, and ordinary citizens.

In the upcoming June issue of Presidential Studies Quarterly, Professor Curt Nichols, an assistant professor of political science at Baylor University in Texas, comes up with a new theory and premise about how Presidents are ultimately ranked in history.

Nichols used a statistical method known as regression analysis, utilizing Presidential ranking polls conducted by C Span, the Wall Street Journal, and the Siena Research Institute.

Each poll has different factors in judging Presidential leadership, with C Span having ten.

But Nichols says the rating score of Presidents is ultimately raised if the following six factors are considered:

Number of years served
Wartime leadership
If transformation of political landscape occurs in their term
If they are part of the Founding Fathers group
If they are considered “progressive” and pursue “equal justice for all”
If they are assassinated progressives

At the same time, two factors will decrease the rating scores of Presidents:

If the President is impeached, resigns, or has major political scandals during his administration
If they push the nation into political crisis or are unable to lift the country out of a political crisis

Going by this discussion, Nichols believes that IF Barack Obama is defeated for re-election, he will rank only as “average”, as number 22, between William McKinley and George H. W. Bush.

But Nichols also believes that If Barack Obama is re-elected to the Presidency, he could end up as high as number FOUR, behind Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and George Washington, and ahead of Thomas Jefferson!

There is lots of room for debate on the Nichols viewpoint, but it certainly will cause much more discussion and analysis of the men who have been President of the United States.

A few observations here:

If wartime Presidents have an edge, then why is James Madison, William McKinley, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush rated quite low on the rankings list generally accepted?

One term Presidencies that stick out as better include James K. Polk and John F. Kennedy.

Two term Presidencies that are seen negatively include James Madison, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland, and George W. Bush.

So whether having a second term really helps raise the stature of a President is still very debatable.

And whether Barack Obama could end up ranked ahead of Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton is something that will be hotly debated into the long term future.

Mitt Romney’s Investment In American Financial Institutions: Not Preferred Over Bermuda, Cayman Islands, And Switzerland

Ronald 1 Comment

Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor, would be, by latest estimate, the FOURTH wealthiest President if he was elected, just behind George Washington, Herbert Hoover, and Thomas Jefferson, and ahead of John F. Kennedy, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt, Zachary Taylor, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, and James Madison.

Romney would have twice as much wealth (at about $250 million) than the last eight Presidents combined, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. And over time, he could be worth more than the three Presidents ahead of him, and become historically the wealthiest President ever!

And we have now learned that Mitt Romney pays only 13.9 percent of the wealth he has gained by investment, rather than by working, and that he has large amounts of money invested outside the United States, notably in Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, and in Swiss banks.

So while he wishes to promote American economic recovery, he is, apparently, not willing to keep his investments in America!

This could become a major issue in the Presidential campaign of 2012!

Political Attacks On First Ladies: Nothing New!

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The new book that claims that First Lady Michelle Obama has had problems with White House staff, that she interferes with their agenda in defense of her husband, has led to denials by her, and bitter attacks by conservative media.

Is criticism of the First Lady, whoever she is, anything new? History tells us otherwise.

First Lady Dolly Madison was always more outspoken in all ways than her taciturn husband, James Madison. She was known as the “party giver”, but that included her willingness to speak her mind!

First Lady Mary Lincoln was controversial over her expenditures, her clothes, and her mouth, and came under a lot of political attacks during the Civil War, including the fact that her brothers were part of the enemy, fighting for the Confederacy against the American government led by Abraham Lincoln.

Lucy Hayes came to be known as “Lemonade Lucy”, due to the fact that she prevented the serving of liquor at White House gatherings, and believed in women’s rights, including the right to vote, and spoke her mind regularly, causing problems therefore for her husband, Rutherford Hayes.

Edith Bolling Galt Wilson, the second Mrs. Wilson, led cabinet meetings after Woodrow Wilson suffered a stroke in 1919, and often was considered the “first woman President” during his last 18 months in office.

Eleanor Roosevelt, wife of Franklin D. Roosevelt, was the most controversial First Lady, speaking up regularly on all kinds of issues and topics, and labeled by her critics as a Communist and a Socialist. After her husband died, she remained part of the political controversies in the era of McCarthyism and the Cold War, always speaking her mind and being a political activist.

Betty Ford became a lightning rod under President Gerald Ford, speaking out as a feminist for the Equal Rights Amendment, and endorsing abortion rights, and speaking about her alcohol and breast cancer problems openly.

Rosalyn Carter attended cabinet meeting of her husband, Jimmy Carter, and also spoke out for feminist causes openly.

Nancy Reagan was criticized for her spending on White House China, and defended her husband, Ronald Reagan, against his own White House Chief of Staff, Donald Regan, who she was able to arrange to fire. She had no problem stating that she was there to help and defend her husband.

Hillary Clinton was the most involved and outspoken First Lady since Eleanor Roosevelt, and became a lightning rod particularly when she promoted a failed health care plan in the first term of Bill Clinton.

And now, Michelle Obama is making clear that she is there as an advocate of her husband, while claiming no problem in getting along with the White House staff.

So this is all nothing new!