Beto O’Rourke

Yet Another Presidential Contender: Governor Steve Bullock Of Montana

Ronald 8 Comments

We already have 20 Democratic Presidential contenders, and now another one is imminent: Montana Governor Steve Bullock. It has been made public that he will announce in two weeks, in mid May.

It would seem that Bullock could be dismissed as a serious candidate, but looking at his record gives one pause.

Bullock is 53, making him one of the younger potential Presidents, and he has been successful in a heavily Republican state, first as Attorney General from 2009-2013, and then as a two term Governor, elected in 2012 and again in 2016. He is also the Chair of the National Governor’s Association, elected last year to that position, which gives him more publicity and attention.

Bullock has been rated the most popular Democratic Governor in public opinion polls, and has managed to be effective with a heavily opposition controlled Republican legislature, with Democrats having been able to hold on to the Governor’s chair despite Republican statewide dominance, with Brian Schweitzer for eight years before Bullock, along with one Senate seat, that of Senator Jon Tester. He was the only incumbent Democratic Governor to win reelection in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016.

To survive as a Democrat, Bullock, like Tester, is a moderate Democrat, but he is pro choice; a believer in climate change; is supported by organized labor; refuses to cooperate with immigration authorities on the issue of separation of families on the border with Mexico; supports net neutrality; favors campaign finance reform; and backs gay marriage.

Bullock has emphasized the need for Democrats to gain support from rural and suburban areas, rather than focusing on urban areas, the traditional Democratic base. His visits in 2018 to Iowa and New Hampshire fueled belief he would announce for President, and now it is imminent.

As a moderate centrist Democrat, however, he is competing with Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Pete Buttigieg, and possibly others whose ideas are not fully developed as of yet. So the odds that a man from Montana could go all the way seems unlikely, but of course, he could be a Vice Presidential choice of the Democratic Presidential candidate.

Age Range Of Democratic Presidential Candidates

Ronald 1 Comment

The Washington Post has done a study of the age range of all 20 Democratic Presidential candidates.

It turns out that half are under age 50, and half are ages 50-77.

Four are age 40 and lower, and six are between 40 and 50.

Four are in their 50s, and four are in their 60s, while Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are in their mid 70s.

Of course, all 20 Democrats will be nearly two years older when the inauguration comes.

Interestingly, both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are in the lead in polls, despite their age, while two women, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren between 50 and 70 are right behind them, and with Beto O’Rourke in his 40s also competing, and one of the four below age 40, Pete Buttigieg, also doing well at this point.

So we have a wide variety of age distribution, and the question is how the different age groups will vote once the primaries and caucuses begin in about 10 months.

Will Democrats Go Back To A White Male Presidential Nominee After Three Times Not Doing So?

Ronald 41 Comments

In the midst of a revolutionary situation in Democratic Party politics, where we have six women and four people of color announcing for President, the question arises whether the Democratic Party will go back to the old standard of a white male Presidential nominee in 2020.

It is often not thought about that the last three times, the Democrats nominated a man of color (Barack Obama), and a white woman (Hillary Clinton).

With the growing number of people of color in the population, and the clear cut advantage for Democrats among women, the question is whether that means the Democrats need to continue down the road they have been on, and in so doing, likely alienating many middle class and working class white males, particularly in the Midwest and South, who feel they are being overlooked and ignored.

So is it wise to nominate Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, or Seth Moulton?

The ultimate issue is what strategy is best, so that the Democrats regain the Presidency and the Senate, and retire Donald Trump, and lead to his facing criminal prosecution.

Reality Of Democratic Presidential Contenders: They MUST Win Home Or Regional State Primary Or Caucus To Survive To Later Battles

Ronald 2 Comments

With up to two dozen or more Democrats as Presidential contenders, history tells us that such candidates MUST win their home or regional state primary or caucus in 2020 to survive to later battles.

As a result, we will see winnowing down of candidates during the month of February and early March 2020, after some candidates drop out as a result of a poor performance (by comparison and journalistic judgment) at upcoming debates being held monthly starting in late June and the early primaries and caucuses.

So IF Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren fail to win New Hampshire and or Massachusetts. their candidacies will be effectively over.

So IF Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg, or Tim Ryan fail to win Iowa or Minnesota or Michigan or Ohio or Missouri, their candidacies are dead in the water.

So if Julian Castro or Beto O’Rourke fail to win Texas, they will be knocked out of the race for the White House.

So if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker cannot win in South Carolina, with its heavily African American Democratic registration, their Presidential candidacies are doomed.

So if Kamala Harris, or Eric Swalwell, or Tulsi Gabbard, or Jay Inslee, or John Hickenlooper fail to win California or Nevada or Washington, their campaigns will effectively end.

All of the states mentioned above have their primaries or caucuses taking place between February 3 and March 10.

The state of New York will also have its primaries in either February or early March, still undetermined, and Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand would be expected to win that state in order to survive for a longer period.

Notice that the one “national” candidate who does not need to win any specific state or group of states to be viable is former Vice President Joe Biden, who could lose some, win some, but would likely have greater staying power in the race than anyone else.

So by the “Ides Of March” (March 15 or two days later, March 17, when Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Colorado have had their primaries), we are likely to know who the Democratic nominee is for President.

More Presidential Contenders In 2020 Than In 2016: All Time High

Ronald 9 Comments

America is about to witness the largest number of Presidential contenders in its history, as up to 26 Democrats are getting ready to compete in the first two Town Hall debates—on June 26 and 27 in Miami and July 30 and 31 in Detroit.

This includes Senators, Governors, Congressmen and women, Mayors, and businessmen and women, including seven Senators, four Governors, six Congressmen and women, four Mayors, a former Vice President, three businessmen and women, and a former state representative. Some of these are former governors, members of the House of Representatives, and former Mayors.

The Republican Party had set the all time record of 17 contenders in 2016, and it led, sadly, to Donald Trump winning their nomination and the White House.

This number of 26 is pure insanity, and needs to be cut down dramatically, and assuredly, public opinion polls, financial support, and staff growth will quickly eliminate many once the first two debate dates are done, as comparisons on issues and personality, and the likelihood of mistakes and blunders will narrow the field.

Expect that at most ten contenders might survive to the point of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, and the South Carolina Primary, all taking place in February 2020, before the massive Super Tuesday on March 3, when 12 states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts and Virginia have their primaries.

If one had to guess now who will be the final ten, they would be in the estimate of this blogger the following alphabetically: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

If that is the final ten, it would include the former Vice President, six Senators, two Mayors, and one Congressman. It would also include four women, one Latino, one mixed race, one African American, four white Anglo men, three white Anglo women, and one gay male and one Jewish male.

House Of Representatives Presidential Contenders At All Time High

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An astounding reality about the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020 is that we are witnessing an all time high in contenders who are or have been members of the House of Representatives.

In the past, there was an occasional man or woman who was serving in the lower chamber who announced , but tradition is that Governors or Senators, or cabinet officers or military generals would be the nominees.

But now, we have four announced Democratic members of Congress present or past in the race, and two more likely to join the fray.

We have former Congressman John Delaney of Maryland, and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke of Texas.

We also have sitting members of the House of Representatives who have begun their campaign, including Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, and Tim Ryan of Ohio.

Still pending and likely to join the fray are Eric Swalwell of California, and Seth Moulton of Massachusetts.

At this point, O’Rourke seems the most serious candidate, but who can say that one of more of the others might not catch fire, and be a serious candidate?

Quandary For Democrats: Progressive Or Moderate? Man Or Woman? White Or Nonwhite? Young Or Old? Senator/Governor Or A Nontraditional Candidate?

Ronald 1 Comment

As we enter the month of April, and as more Democratic candidates for President are expected to announce, and as the first Democratic Presidential debate is set for Miami, Florida, on Wednesday and Thursday, June 26 and 27, the quandary for Democrats and the future remains.

Should the Democrats nominate a progressive, such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? Should they nominate a man or one of the many women who are running? Should they nominate a white man such as Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders, or a non white such as Cory Booker? Should they nominate an old guy such as Biden or Sanders, or a young man such as O’Rourke, Julian Castro, or Pete Buttigieg? Should they nominate, as traditionally is done, a sitting or former Senator or Governor, or nontraditional candidate, such as a sitting or former member of the House of Representatives, or a sitting or former Mayor, or a person who hs served as a cabinet officer, or someone who is openly gay?

This is the amazing list of alternatives facing the Democrats, with the ultimate question being who can defeat Donald Trump, or if he leaves, Mike Pence in the 2020 Presidential election.

Victory is essential, and trying to figure out which strategy is best is a massive challenge to Democratic voters in the upcoming primaries and caucuses which start ten months from now.

Beto O’Rourke Enters The Presidential Race: Is He The New Hope For The Democrats In 2020?

Ronald 5 Comments

Former three term El Paso, Texas Congressman Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is the newest entry into the Democratic Presidential race, and is exciting many young voters and others tired of the “establishment” veterans.

O’Rourke is 46, has three children 8, 10, and 12, and his wife Amy Hoover Sanders is 37. If he won the Presidency, it would bring a young family into the White House.

O’Rourke is seen as a moderate centrist, in the line of Joe Biden, but a full 30 years younger.

He came within about two and a half points of Republican Senator Ted Cruz in the Midterm Elections of 2018.

He shares the same first and middle name of Robert Francis Kennedy, the brother of John F. Kennedy, and himself the Attorney General and New York Senator who sought the Democratic Presidential nomination in 1968 before being assassinated on June 6, 1968. And he looks as if he a spitting image of a younger Robert Kennedy but much taller than RFK, although not related to him.

It is an oddity that his wife has the first name of Democratic Presidential rival Amy Klobuchar; a middle name the same as President Herbert Hoover; and a last name the same as Democratic Presidential contender Bernie Sanders. And their older son’s first name is Ulysses, the first name of President Ulysses S. Grant.

O’Rourke has charisma, charm, and personal appeal, and that could just be the right combination for 2020, and opens up the chance that Texas just might go “Blue”, making it easier to win the White House.

There is a long way to go in this Presidential competition, but O’Rourke has made it more exciting, as earlier Barack Obama did in 2008, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Wendell Willkie in 1940, and William Jennings Bryan in 1896.

If Texas Went “Blue” In 2020, The Midwest Would No Longer Be Essential For Democratic Hold On White House

Ronald 8 Comments

The possibility now exists, after “Beto” O’Rourke ran the best Democratic race for statewide office in Texas by a Democrat in 30 years, when he came close to defeating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in November 2018, that the state might turn “Blue” in the near future.

If O’Rourke or former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro ends up running as the Presidential or even Vice Presidential nominee in 2020 for the Democrats, the party might win the 38 electoral votes of Texas, replacing the need for the Midwest states that Hillary Clinton lost to be won if the Democrats are to gain the White House.

And if Joaquin Castro, Julian’s identical twin brother, now a Congressman from San Antonio, runs against Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, and is able to win the state, it will be ever more insurance on the short term and long term future of Texas in the Democratic camp.

Joe Biden Moves To The Forefront As Michael Bloomberg And Sherrod Brown Decide Not To Run For President

Ronald 23 Comments

With moderates Michael Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown deciding not to run for President in 2020, Joe Biden moves to the forefront as the best moderate centrist Democratic Presidential candidate, at least on paper in and polls.

We also have Senator Amy Klobuchar, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, former El Paso Congressman Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, plus possibly John Hickenlooper, former Colorado Governor, who has just announced for President as possible moderates who might compete.

With Klobuchar apparently the only candidate from the Midwest “battleground” states that Hillary Clinton lost, and Castro and O’Rourke from Texas, which could conceivably go “Blue” and make it unnecessary for a Democrat to win the Midwest, and Hickenlooper from a critical Rocky Mountain West state, any of them could be the person to replace Joe Biden, if he falters, and any of them could also be the Vice Presidential running mage with Joe Biden.

At this point, these five listed above are probably those with an edge to win the nation, rather than further left nominees, but it is clear that the race is wide open, and all candidates will have to be vetted, and many will fall short, and none will be perfect in their backgrounds and records in office.