We already have 20 Democratic Presidential contenders, and now another one is imminent: Montana Governor Steve Bullock. It has been made public that he will announce in two weeks, in mid May.
It would seem that Bullock could be dismissed as a serious candidate, but looking at his record gives one pause.
Bullock is 53, making him one of the younger potential Presidents, and he has been successful in a heavily Republican state, first as Attorney General from 2009-2013, and then as a two term Governor, elected in 2012 and again in 2016. He is also the Chair of the National Governor’s Association, elected last year to that position, which gives him more publicity and attention.
Bullock has been rated the most popular Democratic Governor in public opinion polls, and has managed to be effective with a heavily opposition controlled Republican legislature, with Democrats having been able to hold on to the Governor’s chair despite Republican statewide dominance, with Brian Schweitzer for eight years before Bullock, along with one Senate seat, that of Senator Jon Tester. He was the only incumbent Democratic Governor to win reelection in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016.
To survive as a Democrat, Bullock, like Tester, is a moderate Democrat, but he is pro choice; a believer in climate change; is supported by organized labor; refuses to cooperate with immigration authorities on the issue of separation of families on the border with Mexico; supports net neutrality; favors campaign finance reform; and backs gay marriage.
Bullock has emphasized the need for Democrats to gain support from rural and suburban areas, rather than focusing on urban areas, the traditional Democratic base. His visits in 2018 to Iowa and New Hampshire fueled belief he would announce for President, and now it is imminent.
As a moderate centrist Democrat, however, he is competing with Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Pete Buttigieg, and possibly others whose ideas are not fully developed as of yet. So the odds that a man from Montana could go all the way seems unlikely, but of course, he could be a Vice Presidential choice of the Democratic Presidential candidate.
In the midterm elections of 2018, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House of Representatives with a net gain of +40 (or, pending North Carolina #09, +41) seats.
The 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by a percentage-points margin of +8.64. (Result: Republicans 44.26% vs. Democrats 52.90%.)
Unless the 2020 Democrats nominate an authentically progressive nominee who performs remarkably to the point of unseating Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, the U.S. Senate will likely get retained by the Republicans. (The 2020 Democrats won’t flip the U.S. Senate unless they flip the presidency first.) If Trump wins re-election, the Democrats would likely lose seats in the U.S. House as well. The Democrats would have to match that level of their 2018 popular-vote margin to hold all their U.S. House seats. Anything less than that +8.64 will yield net gains for the Republicans. (This is keeping in mind that, since the year 2000, the popular-vote percentage-points margins for U.S. President and U.S. House have been within five points in spread; much of the time, the spread was tighter.)
“The Hill†has a report (https://thehill.com/homenews/house/440692-college-democrats-at-over-40-schools-boycott-dccc-over-pro-incumbent-policy), which is covered in the below video by Jimmy Dore, on college students calling for boycotting the DCCC.
Directly from its website (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fsJdaCpqlTfwexwS2hZ0YxfLAfUz5xvM7WQWdqrROKQ/edit):
“As College Democrats across the country, we are opposed to the recent DCCC rule change that would blacklist vendors or firms who work with primary challengers to Democratic incumbents. The rule would financially deter and greatly disadvantage vital new voices in our party, who are often younger and come from underrepresented and historically marginalized communities and identities.
“Primary challengers are essential to ensure that the Democratic Party is continually held accountable to the needs of our constituents. This blacklist policy is undemocratic and antithetical to our values of inclusion and diversity.…â€
This latest about the DCCC, with its chairperson Cheri Bustos (D–Illinois #17), is not good. From the four commonly recorded voting-age groups—18 to 29; 30 to 44; 45 to 64; and 65+—the first carried by Democrats are the youngest age group. John Kerry, the only Democratic presidential nominee after the 1980s who lost in the U.S. Popular Vote (by –2.46 percentage points), won nationally voters 18 to 29 (by +9 points). So, the Democrats absolutely have to have the voting support of people in that age range of 18 to 29. (Re-elected Republican president George W. Bush carried the other three age groups. Had Kerry failed to carry 18 to 29 voters, his margin loss would have been worse and Bush’s electoral-vote score, at 286, would have been north of 300.)
Another one in is Michael Bennett
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/05/02/michael-bennet-joins-an-already-crowded-presidential-race/
Yes, haha,Southern Liberal, so I will write on Bennet tomorrow, as he beat the rumors of Bullock, who supposedly is waiting to Mid May!
Analysts are saying that the voters are looking at electability over ideology.
Yes, Princess Leia, and to be termed a “socialist”” sadly rings warning signs to many ill informed and uneducated people, who think Bernie Sanders socialism is the same as Cuba, the old Soviet Union, North Korea, and the People’s Republic of China, which it most certainly is NOT!
But the right wing has promoted fear in people, and Trump is utilizing it, so that is why Trump is most concerned about Joe Biden, due to his electability level, which is much better than Bernie Sanders!
Ronald,
In your blog topic “Can Joe Biden Overcome the Obstacle Course Awaiting Him in 2020?†(April 28, 2019 @ https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=36668), you wrote of the 47th U.S. president:
“[Joe Biden] also made judgments that are problematical, including being against school busing in Delaware; supporting the credit card industry in his state, and in so doing, undermining the ability of debtors to protect themselves by bankruptcy; his lack of protection of Anita Hill in the Clarence Thomas hearings in 1991, for which he continues to apologize but in an unsatisfactory manner; his support of an interventionist foreign policy in Iraq; his many gaffes, many of them harmless but still giving him a reputation for loose and thoughtless language; and his habit of being too touchy feely with women and girls, although never accused of sexual improprieties.
“Biden also promoted tough crime and drug laws in the 1990s, which are now looked at as blunders that put too many African Americans in prison unjustifiably, and his leadership at different times of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee has been criticized. His ability to ‘cross the aisle’ and work with many Republicans is seen by some as a weakness, while others see it as a strength.
“Biden is a centrist Democrat in 2019 at a time when many progressives are much further to the left than him, and one wonders if he could gain the support of those to his left if he wins the nomination, as he is perceived as too close to the traditional power centers of the party.â€
You stated a case—standing out most especially is that, while in the U.S. Senate, he voted for the war in Iraq—for not only refraining from nominating Joe Biden; but that, if nominated, Biden will not unseat Donald Trump in the United States presidential election of 2020.
To nominate the too-often-on-the-wrong-side-of-history Joe Biden, for 2020, would be like nomination for Hillary Clinton, from 2016: a disaster.
Nancy Pelosi expresses what I’m worried about as well, that Trump might not give up power if he loses in a close election.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/04/politics/nancy-pelosi-trump-2020-election-impeachment/index.html
That firefighter union that endorsed Biden seems to be ok with Biden having flaws.