Allan J. Lichtman

Distinguished Group Of 25 Historians Advocating Removal Of Donald Trump Presidential Candidacy Under 14th Amendment Section Three Of The Constitution

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The upcoming Supreme Court case regarding whether Donald Trump should be removed from ballots in Colorado and nationwide for the Presidential Election of 2024 will be argued this Thursday, and a distinguished group of 25 historians has submitted briefs supporting Colorado in the case Trump V Anderson.

Among the reputable historians giving views supportive of such action are:

Allan J. Lichtman of American University
Nell Irvin Painter of Princeton University
James McPherson of Princeton University
Thomas C. Holt of the University of Chicago
Brooks D. Simpson of Arizona State University
Lawrence Powell of Tulane University
Peter C. Hoffer of University of Georgia
Steve Hahn of New York University

There are a multitude of conservative thinkers and authors who also believe Trump inspired the 2021 US Capitol Insurrection, and should be banned under the 14th Amendment Section 3.

The question is whether the conservative dominated US Supreme Court will follow through on their beliefs in “Textualism” and “Originalism”, or whether they will demonstrate their hypocrisy, with most observers thinking the latter will happen!

The reputation of the Court as an institution, and of its nine members, is at stake.

Associate Justice Clarence Thomas should recuse himself in this case, since his wife was involved in the Insurrection.

And Chief Justice John Roberts should want his Court to be seen in history as reputable!

Earlier Courts unanimously repudiated Richard Nixon in US V Nixon (1974), and Bill Clinton in Clinton V Jones (1997), so the present Court has a heavy burden to deal with for history!

Historian Allan J. Lichtman And Presidential Election Predictability

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Professor Allan J. Lichtman of American University in Washington, DC has published over many years his theories about predicting Presidential elections.

Originally publishing THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE in 1984, Lichtman has continued to update his predictions and his theory.

Lichtman suggests that there are 13 factors involved in a Presidential election, and that IF a candidate is positively rated on EIGHT or more of the 13 factors, he wins the election.

Based on this, Lichtman now predicts that Barack Obama will win the 2012 election, since he has NINE of the 13 factors in his favor!

The positive factors include:

1. No serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
2. The President in office is running for reelection.
3. There is no significant third party challenge.
4. The party in power has brought about major policy changes.
5. There is no major social unrest during the term.
6. There is no major scandal during the term.
7. There are no major foreign policy failures during the term.
8. There are major successes in foreign and military policy.
9. The candidate of the incumbent party is charismatic and well liked personally.

The four factors against Obama include:

1. The party in power has lost seats in the midterm election in the House of Representatives as compared to the number of seats in the previous midterm election.
2. The economy is in poor shape.
3. The long term economy outlook is not good.
4. The challenging candidate may be charismatic.

Lichtman claims this series of factors has always worked, going back to the beginning of our popular vote elections for President in 1824.

There is much debate about the validity of this series of factors judging who will win Presidential elections, both past and the future.

Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES contests the validity of much of what Lichtman says.

If nothing else, however, the Lichtman formula makes for interesting discussion and debate, and it will be interesting to see if his prediction of an Obama victory holds up.

For that, we will have to wait 14 months!