Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!
No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.
Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.
But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.
As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.
If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.
Ronald writes, “No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.â€
Yes—no Republican, so far, has won election or re-election to the presidency of the United States without having carried the state of Ohio.
This is mentioned, for a reminder, from one U.S. presidential election to the next.
Two other states, each with at least 100 years in the union, also apply: Arizona and North Dakota.
No Republican has won election or re-election to the presidency of the United States without having carried the state of Arizona.
No Republican has won election or re-election to the presidency of the United States without having carried the state of North Dakota.
Some of this has to do with bellwether status (for however long that plays out for a given state).
Some of it is party alignment—favoring the Republican Party or the Democratic Party—while the nation is in a realigning presidential period for one of the two major parties. (Ohio voted Republican from Abraham Lincoln having realigned the presidency to the Republicans in 1860 through 1892. Ohio never carried for 1884 and 1892 Democratic winner Grover Cleveland.)
Some states just so happen to perform as bellwethers during a realigning period. They vote with the winners—both parties (when prevailing for U.S. President)—nearly every time or every time. For the 1860–1892 Republicans, no state more reliably carried than Indiana. (It went 8-for-9; add that it sided with a popular-vote winner, and it performed 8.5-for-9 during that period.) For the 1896–1928 Republicans, most reliably carried were Ohio, North Dakota, and New Hampshire. (They each went 9-for-9. Meaning, the trio carried for the sole Democratic winner, Woodrow Wilson, in 1912 and 1916.) For the 1932–1964 Democrats, it was then-bellwethers Nevada and New Mexico with Massachusetts and Minnesota. (They, too, went 9-for-9. Meaning, especially with the two M-states, they carried for the sole Republican winner, Dwight Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956.) For the 1968–2004 Republicans, it was Ohio with Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky. (They each went 10-for-10 during this period. The three combined Democratic-winning terms of 1976 Jimmy Carter and 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton all four carried.) If 2008 turned out to be the start of a realigning period for the Democrats (the Republicans and Donald Trump have to hold the presidency with Election 2020), we will have six candidates: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin—and, of course, Ohio. Each have carried, so far, in 3-for-3 cycles. (They all have to carry the same here in 2020 for a a 4-to-4 performance.)
Yes—Arizona, North Dakota, and Ohio have been carried by all prevailing Republicans.
The same used to be the true with Arkansas and Missouri by all prevailing Democrats.
Arkansas and Missouri carried for all prevailing Democratic presidential-election winners through 1996 Bill Clinton. (2008 Barack Obama was the first Democratic U.S. presidential winner elected without either state.)
This may hold true of a future Republican presidential winner should particularly Arizona trend even more so for the Democrats in not only in 2020 but in future elections. (Meaning its statewide margins become bluer than the nation’s. That Arizona could become bluer than states like the Rust Belt trio Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Realigning voting patters involving some states.) That we get a future prevailing Republican—especially in a year that switches U.S. President from Democratic to Republican—who does not carry the state of Arizona.
Thanks, D, once again for your detailed contribution, as usual, and I KNEW you would respond very quickly to this entry! HAHA LOL! 🙂
This blog topic is focusing on Ohio.
Ohio, as it had been the most reputable bellwether state in the nation, is gradually in decline. (I think the most reliable bellwether state is Florida.)
Out of the six 2016 Republican pickup states for Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump, only Ohio did not deliver in the 2018 midterm elections wave any Democrats pickups between U.S. House and U.S. Governors. (All five other 2016 Republican pickup states—as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—delivered at least a single Democratic pickup.) Ohio’s senior U.S. senator, Sherrod Brown, was re-elected by +6.82 percentage points after having won re-election in 2012, connected with the re-election for Democratic incumbent U.S. president Barack Obama, by a margin of +6.00. (2018 Sherrod Brown should have won with a margin north of +10. Closer to +16 than +6.)
The 2018 midterm elections, in which the U.S. House flipped Democratic with a national margin of +8.56 and a net gain of +40 seats along with U.S. Governors a net gain for the Democrats of +7 (they needed +10 for a new majority count), was only reflected in Ohio to the following extent: a Republican hold of the governorship—Mike DeWine following term-limited John Kasich—ended up +3.73 (in 2018) after a landslide +30.61 (in 2014). This was an example why Ohio is not immune to national shifts (from the prior comparable election cycle). So, the 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governors by +3.07 while their margin for Governor of Ohio was –3.73. They won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by +8.56 while their margin for U.S House seats from Ohio was –4.73.
Ohio currently holds the longest, unbroken streak of having carried for presidential winners. It carried in each of the previous 52 years and 14 cycles of 1964 to 2016. Historically, the current record is a tie with Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter first voted in 1912, when it became the 47th state entered into the Union, the two were on an unbroken streak from 1912 to 1972. A period of 60 years and 16 consecutive cycles. So, Ohio is on the verge of either matching or surpassing the Nevada-and-New Mexico record—or it will experience an occurrence—and it may be here in 2020 (with attempting a 15th consecutive cycle)—of not having carried for a presidential winner for the first time since 1960.
Watch out for Ottawa County, with its county seat Port Clinton, which is also near Toledo! It has carried for all presidential candidates who won Ohio since its unbroken streak dates back to 1964. From 1988 to 2012, Ottawa County voted for the statewide winners within five percentage points of their margin. In 2016, it voted for Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump by +19.51 vs. his statewide +8.07, with a spread of 11.44 points redder. Results like 2016 and 2018 Ottawa County help to explain why we can experience a Democratic win nationally while Ohio holds for a losing Republican especially for U.S. President.
The 2020 Democrats, with winning the presidency, would prevail by no less than +4 percentage points (say, 51 to 47 percent). That is their floor. That was the result for 2012 re-elected Barack Obama. Carriage of 26 states. This is keeping in mind having observed an electoral structure in effect since 1960, with the exception of 1992, in which prevailing Democrats carry +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. In 2020, winning nationally by +4 is not enough to flip Ohio. (In 2012, it was. Obama won nationally by +3.86 and carried Ohio by +2.98.) Winning nationally by +5 is also not enough to flip Ohio. (A margin of +5 is 26 or 27 carried states. Ohio was the party’s No. 28 in 2016. It is liable to end up between Nos. 28 to 30 here in 2020.) I would say that +6 may be enough for Ohio. A national margin of +7 would be even better with flipping and carrying Ohio.
Can Ohio go for a 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner?
Connected with the U.S. Popular Vote, the Democrats hitting +8 or +9 would be enough for all that ranked as their 2016 Nos. 21 to 30. This would include Ohio.
Supposing, for now, that this materializes—with a national margin of +8—here is an estimate:
21. Michigan +11
22. Pennsylvania +10
23. Wisconsin +9 —Tipping-Point State
— U.S. Popular Vote +8 —
24. Arizona +7
25. Florida +6
— [Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District +5.50]
26. North Carolina +5
27. Georgia +4
28. Iowa +3
— [Maine’s 2nd Congressional District +2.50]
29. Ohio +2
30. Texas +0.xx
Some of those ranks, especially those between Nos. 28 to 30, can be adjusted. The margins can be adjusted based on what actually plays out. (They would have to be if the U.S. Popular Vote ends up, say, Democratic +6 or +7.) It would take approximately +8 nationally to flip and carry Texas. And this does give one an idea what it may take to flip and carry Ohio.
Trump is expected to choose Amy Coney Barrett as RBG’s replacement.
GOP Leaders Are Using Weasel Words To Avoid Rejecting Trump’s Attempted Coup
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/09/26/gop-leaders-are-using-weasel-words-to-avoid-rejecting-trumps-attempted-coup/
Amy Coney Barrett is anti-abortion, anti-gun control, anti-health care, and even seems to oppose same-sex marriage. She could sit on SCOTUS for 40 years.
A 6-3 court will side with Trump if the election is close.