Virginia State Leaders All Democrats For First Time Since 1969 State Election: Harbinger Of Future In South!

It is now official. Virginia has the first all “blue” state government, with the top three state officials–Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General being Democrats–since the 1969 state election, 34 years ago!

And the state has gone Democratic twice for Barack Obama, and its two US Senators are Democrats.

With the northern Virginia suburbs going Democratic, and the seat of Republican Congressman Frank Wolf, a moderate Republican now open in 2014, due to the retirement of Wolf after 34 years, it is clear that Virginia is becoming more clearly “blue”, a harbinger for the South, as the Hispanic-Latino population continues to grow.

Over the next few years, we will see more of this growing trend toward “blue” in the South, with Georgia next, and soon after Texas, and once that happens, the chances of the Republican Party winning Presidential elections, the ability to win the Electoral College, will be a dim memory, particularly with the growing right wing trend of the GOP.

The Republican Party is committing suicide before our eyes, and if the Tea Party succeeds in defeating sitting traditional conservative Republicans in primaries in 2014, the acceleration toward “blue” will multiply!

PS A correction needs to be made. All three state officials plus the two US Senators are Democrats for first time since 1969, but in 1989 the Democrats won all three statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, and had one Senator (Chuck Robb), while the other Senator was John Warner, a Republican. Just wish to clarify this matter and I thank Engineer of Knowledge for making me aware of the need to modify this entry!

6 comments on “Virginia State Leaders All Democrats For First Time Since 1969 State Election: Harbinger Of Future In South!

  1. D December 20, 2013 12:43 am

    That year of 1989 was during a Republican-party presidency [George Bush].

    2013 is more impressive because the statewide offices won in Virginia were Democratic pickups and, unlike the state’s trend that was on a streak from Elections 1977 to 2009, the swings that resulted in party pickups went toward the party of the incumbent U.S. president [Barack Obama].

    Next year’s midterm congressional elections are ones I haven’t been following lately. I’m referring to polls. Initially, I’m thinking no significance will be had. Party pickups will manifest with some seats, in House and Senate, but nothing enough to mathematically flip majority control of either house of Congress. We’ll see how that goes.

    For 2016, if it turns out to be a Democratic hold for the presidency, that electoral map will depend on the trajectory of the race. As well as the job-approval percentage, from an aggregation of polls, with President Obama. Then again, I remember some things didn’t line up (national-vs.-state-after-state poll margins) during much of the general election of 2012; so my trust there isn’t what it ought to be.

    Among the old Confederacy states (following Virginia), addressed briefly by Ronald, I mentioned here before that North Carolina has been trending away from the Republicans. In 2000, it was [whole-numbers’ estimates] 13 points redder than the national margin; in 2004, it was 10 points redder than the national margin; in 2008, when Barack Obama won it in a Democratic pickup (the first from his party to carry it since 1976 Jimmy Carter), it was 7 points redder than the national margin; and in 2012, when Mitt Romney flipped it to carry by only two points, N.C. was 6 points redder than the national margin. North Carolina is trending competitive (and, perhaps, toward bellwether status). If the Democrats win a third presidential cycle in 2016, and the winning candidate nationally outperforms 2012 Barack Obama, North Carolina will likely become a pickup and carry. Then after that, look to Georgia, Texas, and South Carolina for their potential. One last thing to look out for in 2016 North Carolina: Since 1972, all presidential years in which N.C. also had a scheduled U.S. Senate race saw the presidential and senatorial races be won by the same party. (Last I checked, N.C.’s streak runs longer than any other state. Wisconsin has been at it since 1976. Ohio has been doing this since 1992.) U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s unseating of then-U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, in Election 2008, marked the first time the Democrats won both the presidential and senatorial contests in N.C., in a presidential year, since 1960 [with John Kennedy and Benjamin Everett Jordan]. Difference is, back then N.C. was a base state with the Democratic Party; which, ultimately, made Hagan’s unseating of Dole (and the president’s flipping and carriage of the state) quite extraordinary. North Carolina may the next Virginia!

  2. D December 20, 2013 2:53 am

    Follow-up notes:

    * 1969 was also a year in which we had a Republican-party U.S. president [Richard Nixon].

    * On the [since 1972] North Carolina presidential/senatorial, same-party carriage: I note it in part because the last three presidential cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) resulted in about 80 percent of the states’ presidential-and-senatorial elections having carried for the same political party. It was noted on “ABC News'” 2012 election-night coverage, by Matthew Dowd, that people are increasingly voting for the same party at both levels. (“Colors of [the candidates’] jerseys.”) A good 20 to 40 years ago, the same-party matches rated in the 50s and 60s percentile range. If this continues, people looking to 2016 will want to be mindful of this.

  3. Engineer Of Knowledge December 20, 2013 7:44 am

    Yes Professor…”the times are a changing.” “Its been a long time coming”..the fist time since 1989.

    Virginia was once considered a purple state, but after several Tea Party losses and President Obama’s second statewide victory in 2012, the politics would appear to be changing.  Virginia would appear to be rejecting Tea Party insanity politics and the old Jerry Falwell religious fanatic influences are in the spirals of a slow certain death.

  4. Jane Doe December 20, 2013 3:23 pm

    Excellent news!

  5. dave martin December 20, 2013 4:38 pm

    Virginia is no longer the South, much of the vote is tied to the glutinous District of Columbia.

  6. Ronald December 20, 2013 7:06 pm

    Thanks, D, for your perceptive and optimistic look at the future in North Carolina, and with its right wing state government this past year, it is likely that there will be an uprising by NC voters against the GOP next time around for state elections. If NC turns blue, along with Georgia and Texas, and maybe down the road, South Carolina, the Republican Party will be as as “dead as a doornail” in Presidential races for the long term.

    Engineer, yes, times are a-changing, and it is clear Dave bemoans this, but let him be unhappy while we rejoice in Virginia becoming part of the 21st century, rather than the 19th century Confederate South!

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