Month: November 2008

It is hard to believe, but the 2012 Presidential campaign has begun, just a week after the Presidential election of 2008!

The GOP Governor’s Conference held in Miami this past few days has been the focus of several Republican governors who fancy themselves as possible saviors of the Republican party after the disastrous defeat  of John McCain and Sarah Palin by President-Elect Barack Obama on November 4. 

The Republicans are in sad shape after having lost the suburban vote, the Hispanic vote, the young vote, and the new voter categories in last week’s election.  A massive struggle is beginning for the soul of the party between social conservatives and moderates who see the need to compete for the above voter categories who do not wish to see the control and influence of the Religious Right which turned many groups of voters off and led many to abandon the GOP, when in the past many had found the Republicans appealing.

Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota seem to understand the need for the Republican party to adapt their appeal based on the poor performance of McCain and Palin.  On the other hand, Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Governor Sarah Palin seem to be willing to continue the fight based on the conservative principles that have led to this rapid, sudden decline of the Republican appeal to many groups of voters.  Sarah Palin tried to rehabilitate herself through numerous interviews with the major media that she avoided during the Presidential campaign, and seemed to be trying to erase the bad "first impression"  that she made during the campaign, which led to a majority of Americans in polls late in the campaign declaring that she was ill-qualified to be President or Vice President of the United States.  It will be interesting to witness whether Sarah Palin will be able to become a major factor in the 2012 race, but my suspicion is that it is more likely that Crist, Jindal or Pawlenty will have a better chance to accomplish what I consider is the major need of the GOP to become competitive again–that is, promote MODERATION rather than conservatism and move the Republicans back to the center of the political stage. 

The Republican party, thought just a few years ago to have an emerging permanent majority, is now at its low point since 1964.

With the loss of the Presidency and continued loss of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the GOP is in danger of being a long term minority party unless they get their act together and move away from right wing conservatism and toward the moderate center, where the majority of Americans are found.

IF they become an obstructionist party, unwilling to cooperate with the dire need for change in both domestic and foreign policy, then they will be doomed to long term insignificance.  If they allow Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee to become the future leadership of the Republican party, they will alienate two thirds of the country by catering to the one third which is often defined as Religious Right.  This country rejected in 2008 what has been the dominant influence in the Republican party in the past two and a half decades.  The party has major work to do to regain influence in the industrial Midwest, the Mountain States, the Pacific Coast and the Northeast.  Its influence in the South is waning as well, so the GOP must offer itself as a moderate alternative if it is to revive as a serious challenge to what may have become a new, energized Democratic majority. 

The concept of being a "Rockefeller" Republican , or even the true image of a "TR"  Republican (not the one mistakenly described by John McCain), is essential for the long term success of the GOP.  They must recruit party leadership who understand this need if they are to be a competitive alternative to the Democratic party in 2012 or 2016. And they cannot continue their anti-immigration policy which doomed them among the rising Hispanic population.

The election of Barack Obama as our 44th President is a watershed moment in American history!

It marks the fulfillment of Martin Luther King Jr’s dream as expressed at the March on Washington in August 1963.  It is also the complete fulfillment of Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation in 1863.  It is also the accomplishment of Lyndon Johnson’s pursuit of full equality as represented in the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  It also represents the sacrifices of many ordinary Americans who suffered discrimination, lack of equal opportunity, and even death fighting for equal rights and human dignity.

No wonder there were signs of national celebration all over America as well as in foreign nations!  Tremendous crowds came out in NYC, Los Angeles, Washington, DC,  and other cities across America and in overseas capitals, as everyone sensed a new beginning and a sense of optimism!

This is the most exciting moment in Presidential election history since John F Kennedy broke the barrier of religion nearly 50 years ago, in the 1960 election.  We will be sure to hear from the new President the same message that JFK gave us in his inaugural address: "Ask not what your country can do for you!  Ask what you can do for your country!"  Hopefully, the ME attitude of the last generation will now be replaced by the idealism and commitment to the nation that JFK promoted a half century ago!  It is time for WE, not ME in American politics!

The real winner of the 2008 Presidential election is Lyndon Johnson, who had the courage 44 years ago to promote the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through Congress after the longest lasting filibuster in American history.

No one in their wildest dreams could have imagined back then that we would overcome the race issue enough so as to elect an African American President less than half a century after the major struggle that Lyndon Johnson waged to overcome the prejudices of the section he was brought up in and rose to office  from to national power.

If Lyndon Johnson was alive today, he would be very proud of what has occurred and we owe him a debt of gratitude for his contribution to the betterment of America!

President-elect Obama gave this evening an inspirational speech that reminded many of the great speeches of Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy and Reagan.

He called upon America to support him; he promised to keep us informed on what he would do and what he could not do; he reached out to Americans who had not backed his campaign; he made it clear that he would spend every waking moment working on repairing our economy and our world position; he outlined the challenges that he and the nation faced; he declared he would start immediately during the transitional period and inauguration day on planning strategy for the future.

The President-elect’s speech calls us to the challenges of the future and recalls the image of the presidents mentioned above.  The excitement of his election will continue to grow to January 20, 2009 when he will offer his vision of the future to a world and nation counting on him to transform events in a positive way!

Senator McCain has been very gracious in his concession speech.  He has shown he is a statesman, not just a politician.  He has called for the nation to unite behind President-elect Obama and has pledged to support "his President" in all of his endeavors.  This is appropriate and should be an example for all Americans, as we need to stop the stalemate and gridlock which has become so common in the last two decades.

The poisonous atmosphere so often promoted by right wing radio and tv commentators, including Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh must be repudiated, as they do not have the welfare of the country in mind, but rather their own aggrandizement and publicity.  It is time that the American people rejected them by refusing to watch and listen to their disgraceful propaganda designed to divide, rather than unite. 

Responsible Republicans and conservatives will want to give President-elect Obama a chance to show his leadership, while still, of course, reserving the right to criticize and offer alternative ideas and programs to help us out of the economic mess we are in, and also to resolve the Iraq war which is depleting our resources and making enemies for us in the Islamic world without any positive effect on our national security and foreign policy.

We should all be happy that the long Presidential campaign is over and pray for insight and wisdom in our new President!

I am stunned and at the same time ecstatic at the news just minutes ago that Barack Obama has been elected the 44th President of the United States, with the projection that he has won California and therefore has gained a majority of the Electoral College votes!

This is a tremendous development for a country that has suffered greatly in its image overseas,  and it has also restored faith in the future of America domestically.  We now have a fresh start and hope for the best as Barack Obama faces a daunting challenge in both domestic economic policy and foreign policy.  All Americans need to unite behind the new President as he attempts to deal with a crisis on the level of the Great Depression and the Civil War.  We can only hope that he is up to the task, as we desperately need leadership on the level of Franklin D Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln!

As a result of today’s national election, the US Senate should be much more Democratic with the expectation that the Democrats will gain seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, , Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon and Alaska , with an outside chance to win in Kentucky, Georgia and even possibly Maine if Barack Obama has strong coattails. Therefore, the number of Democratic seats should increase from 51 (with Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders caucusing with the Democrats) to at least 59 and possibly a high of 62 if everything breaks for the Democrats.

Of course, one could wish conservative Republicans in such states as Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama could be defeated, but one must be realistic!  🙂

The real tragedy is the further movement to the right of the Republican party with the likely defeat of a number of moderate Republicans.  This is bad news for the GOP future and for the two party system, with the Republicans possibly being marginalized in a country gone in the opposite direction of the trend of the past 28 years, since the "Reagan Revolution" took hold on America.  We may be in the center of a new political revolution, the "Obama Revolution"!

Additionally, the Democratic edge in the House of Representatives, now 236-199, may go up by as much as 28-35 seats.  What an amazing set of developments when one considers that just a few years ago, it was thought we were in the midst of a "permanent" Republican majority.  American politics continues to amaze!

The time has arrived, 48 hours before the polls close, to make predictions on the outcome of the Presidential election of 2008!

It is clear to me that Senator Barack Obama of Illinois will win the Presidency handily on Tuesday, November 4, and will become the first African American President on January 20, 2009.  He has run a well organized, well financed campaign which will be a model for future Presidential elections.  No one would have realistically imagined two or four years ago that this would be the end result of the election of 2008, again proving that one cannot know years ahead who the American people will elect as their Chief Executive.  There have been constant surprises in the past half century in the choice of the people to lead our nation.

My prediction is that Obama will win a larger percentage of the vote than any Democrat since the Civil War except Franklin D Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, meaning a higher percentage than Grover Cleveland, Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, John F Kennedy, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.  I project a 54-46 split, just short of a landslide (a ten point lead).  Of course, it is possible that Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney might prevent this exact divide if they together win one or two percent of the vote, which is certainly possible.

In electoral vote, Obama will, I believe, win every Kerry state of 2004, including the only two where, theoretically, John McCain has a chance of winning–that is, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  That will give Obama a base of 252 electoral  votes.  He will also win the three Mountain states in play–Colorado with 9 electoral votes, New Mexico with 5 electoral votes, and Nevada with 5 electoral votes, therefore giving him a total of 19 more, giving him, at the least, 271 electoral votes, the exact number Bush won in 2000. 

But that is just the beginning.  He will also win Iowa (7 electoral votes) which gave him his first boost toward the nomination, exactly ten months ago on January 3, proving that an African American candidate could win a mostly white population state.  He will also triumph in Virginia (13 electoral votes), which has been trending Democratic with a Democratic governor and senator and soon a second senator of that party persuasion.  The combination of Iowa and Virginia means another 20 electoral votes, bringing the total up to 291.

Next most likely to go Democratic are Florida (27 electoral votes) and Ohio (20 electoral votes), both of which are struggling economically more than most states, particularly Ohio.  If McCain cannot win Ohio, he will have no chance of being President, as NO Republican Presidential winner has EVER lost Ohio since the beginning of the Republican party in 1854.  I am going to give both states to Obama, now bringing the total of electoral votes to 338.

An intriguing possibility is the likelihood of Obama also winning strong Republican states including Indiana (11 electoral votes), Missouri (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina  (15 electoral votes).  All three are in play and North Carolina is the most likely, and I will give that state to Obama, bringing the total of electoral votes to at least 353.  Missouri is less likely, but it has voted every time since the 20th century began for the presidential winner except 1956, so will this be only the second time that they vote for the loser?  My gut feeling is that they will go for the winner, Obama, making the grand total of electoral votes up to 364.

Indiana seems certainly less likely and finally North Dakota and Montana (3 electoral votes each) are even less likely but are seen as in play.  Of course, even Arizona (10 electoral votes) seems close, but the assumption is that McCain will win his home state, although maybe not by a wide margin.  So I will concede these four states to McCain.

In any case, my ultimate prediction is that Barack Obama will win 364 electoral votes to 174 for McCain–in other words, an electoral landslide!  The state total will be 28 states and the District of Columbia for Obama and 22 states for McCain!  Now let’s see how accurate my projection is!

  An amazing statistic is that since 1952, there has always been a Bush and/or a Dole in public office in America.  That is very likely to end on Tuesday!

 The era of Senator Prescott Bush  of Connecticut (1953-63); President George H W Bush (Congressman from a Texas district  (1967-71), Vice President (1981-89), President (1989-93) ); Governor Jeb Bush (Governor of Florida 1999-2007); and Governor George W Bush  of Texas (1995-2001) and President (2001-2009) will end in January.

At the same time, Bob Dole of Kansas (House member (1961-69) and Senator ( 1969-96) and Presidential nominee (1996) ) is long over, and his wife, Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina is finishing her first, and likely only term in the Senate, in a very close race with Kay Hagan, who she has accused of being an atheist.  What a sad likely ending to the career of "Liddy" who started off her career working for Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society as a liberal, became a Republican when she met and married Bob Dole, but still remained a reasonable moderate Republican in image, until suddenly, once in the Senate, she gained a reputation as a nasty, unpleasant, grouchy lady, greatly resembling Bob Dole’s image until he left the Senate during his Presidential campaign and seemed after that "liberated" enough to be laid back and funny in many public appearances in the years since 1996. 

Why would Elizabeth Dole go so low as to bring up the issue of atheism, as if it is a crime?  This is very similar to the charges that Barack Obama is a Muslim, which of course he is not, but what IF he was?  As Colin Powell said in endorsing Obama, there is nothing WRONG with being a Muslim, and we promote freedom of religion.  That should include the right to be an atheist, although Kay Hagan is NOT an atheist.  But this demeans Elizabeth Dole’s reputation and her recent persona as a senator and candidate downgrades her earlier contributions as a cabinet member under two Presidents.  The result is she is likely to be retired, and that will end a very long period of either a Bush or a Dole or both families being in public office.  Another sign of change, hopefully for the better!