Day: November 2, 2008

Time for Projections on the Presidential Race of 2008!

The time has arrived, 48 hours before the polls close, to make predictions on the outcome of the Presidential election of 2008!

It is clear to me that Senator Barack Obama of Illinois will win the Presidency handily on Tuesday, November 4, and will become the first African American President on January 20, 2009.  He has run a well organized, well financed campaign which will be a model for future Presidential elections.  No one would have realistically imagined two or four years ago that this would be the end result of the election of 2008, again proving that one cannot know years ahead who the American people will elect as their Chief Executive.  There have been constant surprises in the past half century in the choice of the people to lead our nation.

My prediction is that Obama will win a larger percentage of the vote than any Democrat since the Civil War except Franklin D Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, meaning a higher percentage than Grover Cleveland, Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, John F Kennedy, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.  I project a 54-46 split, just short of a landslide (a ten point lead).  Of course, it is possible that Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney might prevent this exact divide if they together win one or two percent of the vote, which is certainly possible.

In electoral vote, Obama will, I believe, win every Kerry state of 2004, including the only two where, theoretically, John McCain has a chance of winning–that is, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  That will give Obama a base of 252 electoral  votes.  He will also win the three Mountain states in play–Colorado with 9 electoral votes, New Mexico with 5 electoral votes, and Nevada with 5 electoral votes, therefore giving him a total of 19 more, giving him, at the least, 271 electoral votes, the exact number Bush won in 2000. 

But that is just the beginning.  He will also win Iowa (7 electoral votes) which gave him his first boost toward the nomination, exactly ten months ago on January 3, proving that an African American candidate could win a mostly white population state.  He will also triumph in Virginia (13 electoral votes), which has been trending Democratic with a Democratic governor and senator and soon a second senator of that party persuasion.  The combination of Iowa and Virginia means another 20 electoral votes, bringing the total up to 291.

Next most likely to go Democratic are Florida (27 electoral votes) and Ohio (20 electoral votes), both of which are struggling economically more than most states, particularly Ohio.  If McCain cannot win Ohio, he will have no chance of being President, as NO Republican Presidential winner has EVER lost Ohio since the beginning of the Republican party in 1854.  I am going to give both states to Obama, now bringing the total of electoral votes to 338.

An intriguing possibility is the likelihood of Obama also winning strong Republican states including Indiana (11 electoral votes), Missouri (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina  (15 electoral votes).  All three are in play and North Carolina is the most likely, and I will give that state to Obama, bringing the total of electoral votes to at least 353.  Missouri is less likely, but it has voted every time since the 20th century began for the presidential winner except 1956, so will this be only the second time that they vote for the loser?  My gut feeling is that they will go for the winner, Obama, making the grand total of electoral votes up to 364.

Indiana seems certainly less likely and finally North Dakota and Montana (3 electoral votes each) are even less likely but are seen as in play.  Of course, even Arizona (10 electoral votes) seems close, but the assumption is that McCain will win his home state, although maybe not by a wide margin.  So I will concede these four states to McCain.

In any case, my ultimate prediction is that Barack Obama will win 364 electoral votes to 174 for McCain–in other words, an electoral landslide!  The state total will be 28 states and the District of Columbia for Obama and 22 states for McCain!  Now let’s see how accurate my projection is!

The Likely end of Bush-Dole Officeholders

  An amazing statistic is that since 1952, there has always been a Bush and/or a Dole in public office in America.  That is very likely to end on Tuesday!

 The era of Senator Prescott Bush  of Connecticut (1953-63); President George H W Bush (Congressman from a Texas district  (1967-71), Vice President (1981-89), President (1989-93) ); Governor Jeb Bush (Governor of Florida 1999-2007); and Governor George W Bush  of Texas (1995-2001) and President (2001-2009) will end in January.

At the same time, Bob Dole of Kansas (House member (1961-69) and Senator ( 1969-96) and Presidential nominee (1996) ) is long over, and his wife, Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina is finishing her first, and likely only term in the Senate, in a very close race with Kay Hagan, who she has accused of being an atheist.  What a sad likely ending to the career of "Liddy" who started off her career working for Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society as a liberal, became a Republican when she met and married Bob Dole, but still remained a reasonable moderate Republican in image, until suddenly, once in the Senate, she gained a reputation as a nasty, unpleasant, grouchy lady, greatly resembling Bob Dole’s image until he left the Senate during his Presidential campaign and seemed after that "liberated" enough to be laid back and funny in many public appearances in the years since 1996. 

Why would Elizabeth Dole go so low as to bring up the issue of atheism, as if it is a crime?  This is very similar to the charges that Barack Obama is a Muslim, which of course he is not, but what IF he was?  As Colin Powell said in endorsing Obama, there is nothing WRONG with being a Muslim, and we promote freedom of religion.  That should include the right to be an atheist, although Kay Hagan is NOT an atheist.  But this demeans Elizabeth Dole’s reputation and her recent persona as a senator and candidate downgrades her earlier contributions as a cabinet member under two Presidents.  The result is she is likely to be retired, and that will end a very long period of either a Bush or a Dole or both families being in public office.  Another sign of change, hopefully for the better!