Tulsi Gabbard

The Number Of Democratic Contenders Will Drop After Super Tuesday

Once the South Carolina Primary today, and the 14 Super Tuesday Primaries on Tuesday have taken place, the number of Democratic contenders will drop dramatically.

Without knowing the results at this writing of what will happen between today and Tuesday, the expectations are that the following candidates will drop out:

Elizabeth Warren

Amy Klobuchar

Tom Steyer

Tulsi Gabbard

The four finalists seem likely to be:

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Pete Buttigieg

Michael Bloomberg

It is likely that Warren and Klobuchar will win no primaries nor end up at least third in any of them, other than their home states of Massachusetts and Minnesota, with doubts they will even win their states.

Steyer has spent a lot of funds in South Carolina, but seems unlikely to do well, and while he has the financial means to stay on, it seems likely he will give up.

As far as Tulsi Gabbard, a truly weird candidate, if she had any sense, she would get out as she has zero credibility, but even if she stays in the race, she is a pure joke!

It seems likely that Joe Biden will win South Carolina and some other primaries, and that Pete Buttigieg will do well enough to stay in the race. And Bloomberg, with his financial assets, has pledged to remain in the race until the bitter end.

And finally, Sanders, with his lead, is not going anywhere!

So the four likely finalists are three old men nearing 80; a fourth candidate half their age and gay and has a husband; and two Jewish finalists.

Who could have predicted this? No one!

New Hampshire Primary: Moderates Dominate, And Joe Biden And Elizabeth Warren In Free Fall

The New Hampshire Primary results are in, and the winners are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who together won 44 percent of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders winning 25.7 percent, only about 3,700 votes ahead of Buttigieg, who had 24.4 percent of the vote on his own.

Even if you add Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing, 9.2 percent of the vote to Sanders’ total, the moderates clearly won, even not including Joe Biden’s embarrassing 5th place finish, with 8.4 percent of the vote.

It is clear that both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are in free fall, and if they do not do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday on March 3, they are done as candidates, and it is likely down to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the likelihood that Michael Bloomberg may do well on Super Tuesday, after spending about $300 million on advertising so far.

Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Tulsi Gabbard remain technically in the race, which is down to just nine candidates, after Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet withdrew last night.

No one thought that Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get this far as survivors, and the sense is that one or the other, or both as a team, might very well be the Democratic ticket for 2020, two Midwestern candidates, who could, in theory, accomplish what Hillary Clinton could not do in 2016, win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially, even Ohio and Iowa, enough to win the White House!

Donald Trump Impeachment Trial Could Affect Democratic Presidential Contest,With So Many Senators Unable To Campaign During Trial

The upcoming Donald Trump impeachment trial is likely to have an effect on the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Since it is likely to be held in January, a month before the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, South Carolina Primary, and Nevada Caucuses, the six Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Bennet) who are candidates for President will be unable to campaign, on days of the trial.

They are required to sit in their Senate seats and listen to the testimony, without speaking, and cannot choose to do otherwise, as it would be against protocol.

If it stretches through the whole month of February, they will not be able to campaign in the 14 states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas, Virginia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee, among others.

That should help such candidates as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Deval Patrick.

Whether the impeachment trial will ultimately change the dynamics long term of the race will be interesting to see if it evolves.

5th Democratic Presidential Debate In Atlanta: Mayor Pete Is The Winner, But Kamala Harris And Cory Booker Also Improved Their Position

The fifth Democratic Presidential debate in Atlanta on Wednesday solidified Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, as the most impressive person on the stage, defending himself in a professional manner.

Kamala Harris and Cory Booker also improved their position relative to the others, while Elizabeth Warren held her own.

Joe Biden,unfortunately, flubbed and hesitated, and just seemed “old”, not improving his position, and not raising large amounts of money, but still a front runner in many polls.

Tom Steyer is clearly going nowhere, and the most disturbing candidate was Tulsi Gabbard, who seems too close to Fox News propaganda, and just comes across as totally unacceptable, and being a Congresswoman from Hawaii is, if anything, less significant, than dealing with urban problems, as Mayor Pete has for the past seven plus years.

The fact that Gabbard has been in the military is overshadowed by the fact that Mayor Pete also has, and Gabbard has no chance to be the nominee.

Neither, ultimately, does Andrew Yang or Bernie Sanders, who has been co opted by Warren, while Amy Klobuchar chugs along, looking more like a potential Vice Presidential choice.

Deval Patrick Joins The Presidential Race Belatedly

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick entered the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination this week, further muddying up the waters at a time when we need fewer candidates.

Patrick is impressive in many ways, but being connected to Bain Capital, the company started by Mitt Romney, is not a plus, and it seems to this blogger that he has little chance to be a major factor in the race, in that sense joining former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has decided not to compete in the February 2020 contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The concern is that by having ever more contenders, the Democrats will shoot themselves, and help Donald Trump to win the Presidency, even after he is impeached by the House of Representatives, but failing to be convicted in the US Senate.

The fact that there are still ten contenders in the MSNBC debate this coming Wednesday in Atlanta, cosponsored by the Washington Post, is not good, as clearly some of them have zero chance to be the nominee.

At the same time, other contenders, including Julian Castro and Steve Bullock, are probably now no longer to be seen as serious contenders.

But one cannot see Tom Steyer or Tulsi Gabbard as serious contenders, and they are in the upcoming debate.

Hopefully, the number of contenders will soon decline rapidly after this fourth debate.

Impressions Of The Fourth Democratic Presidential Debate In Ohio–Eight Of The Twelve Should Continue

The Democratic Presidential debate last night showed strong performances right from the beginning by Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar on the subject of health care, challenging Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders on their promotion of Medicare For All.

Joe Biden held his own, which is significant, and Julian Castro and Kamala Harris improved their position. Bernie Sanders looked in good health, and Cory Booker made some good points regarding the need to focus on the record of Donald Trump, more than criticism of some candidates by others.

Totally unimpressive were Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang, and they should drop out of the race, as there are simply too many candidates.

Beto O’Rourke harmed his candidacy by his consistent stand on gun regulation including confiscation of weapons, not a winnable tactic.

In realistic terms, there should be eight Democrats left in the race—Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.

Ohio Debate On Tuesday Will Start Winnowing The Field Of Democratic Candidates For President

The Columbus, Ohio debate among 12 Democratic Presidential candidates will likely start the winnowing of the field, which is much too large.

As things stand now, Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg seem like the candidates that are gaining.

Warren is taking support away from Bernie Sanders, who is recovering from a heart attack, and will be watched closely on Tuesday for signs of weariness. Sanders knows Warren is a problem for him, and has pointed out that she is a believer in capitalism, and is not a Socialist, which actually helps Warren’s image.

Mayor Pete is likely the major moderate Democratic alternative to Joe Biden, who has to deal with the issue of his son, Hunter Biden, and Ukranian connections, although it seems clear there is no corruption involved, at least as far as we know at this point. Also, Joe Biden is coming across, sadly, as not quite up to par mentally at times, a very worrisome situation for him. Meanwhile, Mayor Pete continues to make a great impression, including in the CNN gay-lesbian-transgender debate this past Thursday, and has gained a lot of financial support.

Whether Kamala Harris can recuperate from a decline in support is debatable. Beto O’Rourke and Julian Castro have also failed to take off in recent months, and have made some errors that harm them.

While Cory Booker gained enough financial backing to stay in the race, it still seems unlikely that he is going to be a serious candidate for the Presidential nomination.

Andrew Yang has had unexpected good fortune, but still it seems a real long shot that he can get anywhere gaining enough support to move forward.

Amy Klobuchar so far has not made much of a dent, and Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer, in their first debate, do not seem likely to make any real move toward serious contention.

So Tuesday’s debate will likely narrow the field as we move closer to the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary four months from now.

CNN Makes Major Contribution To Addressing The Issue Of Gay, Lesbian, And Transgender Rights, Essential For Social Justice

CNN made a major contribution last night to addressing the issue of gay, lesbian and transgender rights, essential for social justice.

Nine Presidential candidates had a half hour each to answer questions and make clear their views on this crucial topic.

Cory Booker, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, and Tom Steyer participated between 730 pm and midnight.

Bernie Sanders did not participate due to his recent heart attack, and Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang claimed scheduling issues made it impossible for them to be present.

Particularly impressive, in the mind of this blogger and author, was Pete Buttigieg, the first openly gay Presidential candidate, who has made a good impression on many people on many different issues, and has been successful in raising millions of dollars in the third quarter of 2019, and is fourth in most polls.

But all of the candidates are open minded and tolerant, a stark difference from the evangelical right wing Christian view advocated by Vice President Mike Pence, and promoted by Donald Trump, despite his total lack of religiosity his entire life. Trump has ended the policy of tolerance of gays in the military, and has shown no willingness to have an open mind on gay rights, including judicial appointments of nominees clearly anti gay, using religion as an excuse for discrimination.

Joe Biden Survives Onslaught In Second Night Of Second Debate, But Kamala Harris Remains Major Competitor, And Cory Booker Impresses

The second night of the second Democratic Presidential debate in Detroit, Michigan, saw former Vice President Joe Biden survive an onslaught from Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Bill de Blasio.

At the same time, Harris remained a major competitor, although attacked by Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard on her handling of criminal justice as California Attorney General.

Cory Booker gained a great deal from this debate as well, and Julian Castro and Jay Inslee both improved their status.

Overall, this debate was far better than Tuesday night’s debate, and it is certain that the 20 debaters will decline by up to half the total for the Houston debate on ABC on September 12 and 13.

Some of these 20 contenders, even if they did well, will be unable to gain 130,000 unique contributors and 2 percent in at least 4 polls, the requirements for the third set of debates.

Right now, the following are definite:

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

The following have a good opportunity to move forward as well:

Cory Booker

Julian Castro

Amy Klobuchar

Jay Inslee

Beto O’Rourke

Steve Bullock

So a total of 11 candidates are likely in September in Houston, and since there will likely be only 11, they may all be on one evening.

Can Joe Biden Recover From Poor First Debate Performance This Week In Detroit CNN Debate?

Former Vice President Joe Biden will come under the microscope this Wednesday in Detroit, as he needs to revive his fortunes after being upended by Senator Kamala Harris in the first debate.

While he seems to have kept his lead in public opinion polls, and particularly in the state of South Carolina, with a very large African American population, Biden knows he will be attacked by Harris again, along with Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Jay Inslee among others, also including Tulsi Gabbard and Bill de Blasio.

Biden needs to prove he can react well to attacks, as if he does not, then despite the polls at this point, his candidacy could be in rapid decline.